Sportznut has posted his very successful outside barrier system and I have also followed the previous good/bad barrier threads, I thought I would see how barrier 1 fared with some of Sportznut's elimination rules.

Some minor success with this yesterday and I did a quick check of any Courier's I had handy (missing a few mid-weekers).

As discussed in other postings, inside barrier dividends aren't quite comparable to Sportz's outside numbers but still interesting results from small numbers.

(1) Qld, NSW, Vic, SA, WA TAB city meetings.
(2) At least 8 starters after scratchings.
(3) Consider only runners from barrier one.
(4) Consider only runners priced below $6.00 in paper pre-post.
(6) Must be having at least 4th run from a spell.
(7) The selection must have finished in the first 4 at each of it's last 3 starts.

Dec26 Adel 3-1 Pipkin PLA 1.60
Dec27 Bris 1-2 Dark Topaze PLA 1.30
Dec27 Melb 5-9 Pretorius WON 2.90/1.60
Jan08 Sydn 1-1 Pontifex UNP
Jan17 Melb 8-1 Si Senor UNP
Jan17 Pert 5-3 Local Product WON 2.70/1.50
Jan23 Melb 6-4 Zero Drama PLA 1.70
Jan24 Pert 5-3 Kame's Hope PLA 1.30
Jan26 Sydn 7-2 Crimson Gown WON 5.70/2.20
Jan31 Melb 4-3 Zero Drama PLA 1.50
Jan31 Melb 8-4 Gladiada WON 6.10/2.20
Jan31 Pert 2-4 Grand Era PLA 1.70

Not many bets, Jan 1, Jan 3 and Jan 10, city meetings but no selections for example. Database experts if you can explore, that would be great.

Cheers

Jimmy, I don't have a database, but I'll still have a bit of a look at it for you. I do actually like betting on both the inside AND outside barriers.

Thanks Sportznut appreciate your time and effort.

To Sportz and Jimmy,

Going by Sportz's outside barrier specials, and Jimmys December figures for his inside barrier system, they both average around 30 points a year. ( Jimmys December figures are up 2.8 points. So 2.8 x 12 = 33.6 points in 12 months. This is very rough as there are 52 weeks in a year and anything can happen ,but it does include his first 2 bets of Dec. that were unplaced)
I you had a bank of $10000 and you used 1% of that for each bet ,on a level stakes approach by the end of a year you should have about $13000. Not bad at all and better than the banks. If you use 2% of your bank you would have $16000 at the and of a year and so on. The question is what is safe, 1% half a percent , 2% or maybe even 5% ? ( I dont know)
What about a staking plan?
Sportz, does the outside barrier system perform ok during winter?

emu,
I'll probably get howled down here but if you are place betting with a high strike rate method like Sportz's you can use 10% of your bank.
That's what I work to with mine. $2000 bank $200 bets.

Cheers

Okay Jimmy, here's what I got from my results. Unfortunately this is only back to Nov20 but these figures are pretty similar to other tests I've done in the past. These are only the races that I bet on (no WA, no Tassie and no provincial races on Saturday). Sorry about that! I also used $3-$7 because that is what I use in most of my betting.

No 2yo or races less than 1200m.
At least 8 starters after scratchings.
In first 4 at each of last 3 starts.
At least 3 starts since a spell.
$3 to $7 pre-post.
Inside or outside barrier.

Okay, now for the results. For those that still think that barrier one should be more profitable than the outside barrier, maybe this just might change your thinking a bit!

All selections: 159
wins 31, return $148.50, loss 7%
places 93, return $170.30, profit 7%

Inside barriers only: 88
wins 14, return $54.10, loss 38%
places 48, return $80.00, loss 10%

Outside barriers only: 71
wins 17, return $94.40, profit 33%
places 45, return $90.30, profit 27%

Inside barriers (metro): 35
wins 5, return $24.20, loss 31%
places 15, return $25.60, loss 27%

Outside barriers (metro): 30
wins 5, return $40.00, profit 33%
places 17, return $32.90, profit 10%

Inside barriers (country/prov): 53
wins 9, return $29.90, loss 45%
places 33, return $54.40, profit 3%

Outside barriers (country/prov): 41
wins 12, return $54.40, profit 33%
places 28, return $57.40, profit 40%

So there you go. You can do okay if you simply look for horses priced at $3-$7 from the outside barrier which have finished in the first 4 at their last 3 starts in this preparation. In the test period it picked up a few good priced winners like Fiery Femme 8.60, This Manshood 10.40, Wild Classic 8.80, Crimson Gown 13.00 and Aurora Anora 7.70. I've always liked backing in form horses from the outside barrier, so I think I might give this a go. I'll still concentrate mainly on the 'specials' though.

By the way, for those that might have been wondering, here's a comparison of how the barrier system 'specials' would go if you used the inside barrier instead of the outside. I think you'll see why I prefer to use the outside barrier:

Outside barriers: 22
wins 8, return $35.00, profit 59%
places 21, return $35.40, profit 61%

Inside barriers: 16
wins 3, return $8.60, loss 46%
places 12, return $17.70, profit 11%

There you go. Hope all that was of some help! :smile:


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-02 17:49 ]

On 2004-02-01 15:31, emu wrote:
Sportz, does the outside barrier system perform ok during winter?


Emu, I don't have exact figures on hand, but yes, I have done okay backing the outside barrier in winter. Let's face it. On some of the wet winter tracks, it can be an advantage being out wide! I must warn you that I don't honestly expect the strike rate of the barrier system specials to remain this high all year round. There must be a losing run somewhere! If the strike rate did remain this high, that would be absolutely incredible!!!

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-02 17:53 ]

Hi Sportznut,

I don't know if this is difficult to do but what would happen to the results you posted on this outside barrier system if you limited the price range to $3-$5 (or maybe $4.40)?

I'm only guessing but it might just help the strike rate (but might also eliminate some of the better proced winners).

__________________
Regards

Quick answer: YES and YES!!! :smile:

YES, I think it may improve the strike rate a bit, but YES, it does knock out quite a few nice winners!


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-02 18:33 ]

Michael, I've just checked and you certainly wouldn't want to get rid of the horses at $5.50-$7.00!!!

Incredibly the win strike rate was actually slightly BETTER on those horses than the shorter priced ones, and they produced a win profit of around 82%.