Desi,

I backed the Saints for the final 8 back in early February and I got $1.80 about them. They are now into $1.38. I backed the two WA teams about a fortnight ago. The West Coast have come in from $1.57 to $1.45 and Fremantle have come in from $1.85 to $1.60.

Here are the latest odds on TAB Sportsbet for the 8:
BRISBANE $1.07
PORT ADELAIDE $1.15
ST KILDA $1.38
HAWTHORN $1.40
COLLINGWOOD $1.45
ESSENDON $1.45
WEST COAST $1.45
FREMANTLE $1.60
SYDNEY $1.70
ADELAIDE $1.85
RICHMOND $1.90
KANGAROOS $2.65
GEELONG $3.50
MELBOURNE $3.50
WESTERN BULLDOGS $4.25
CARLTON $4.50

I'm not sure about backing another team now. I may leave it for another week or two. Despite what happened on Sunday, Essendon can still definitely make the 8, but they face another tough game against St Kilda this week. Hawthorn plays the Kangaroos. Hawthorn's draw is so good this year that I think they are in excellent shape to make the finals and $1.40 is good value if you think they can beat the Kangaroos. The Kangaroos are always under-rated by everyone and I think they will do quite well again this year, but I don't know if they are quite good enough to make the finals. I actually think Sydney might be good value. That $1.70 could be a bit over the odds.

I've worked my predictions out this way. I reckon there are ten main chances to make the 8 this year; the 6 non-Victorian teams plus St Kilda, Collingwood, Essendon and Hawthorn. I reckon probably 1 of the interstate teams will miss out and probably 1 of those 4 Melbourne teams. It's a matter of deciding which ones!

By the way, I've just shown TAB Sportsbet's odds because that's where I backed my teams. I'm sure that if you shop around, you can probably find better value on some of the teams with other bookies.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-30 08:44 ]

Sports, Thanks for the info...agree with Sydney being over the odds and might put some on...might take a punt on the Roos before the weekend too. Always found Hawthorn difficult to back (seem to rely on their other stars a lot) they were inconsistent last year but will keep an eye on. I have never bet on the AFL but could see some value bets throughout the season. Cheers!

Apologies...have been involved in the footy tipping comps and did well but never backed anyone at the TAB...

Sports, what do you reckon about the Bombers vs St Kilda...will the return of 7 of their starting team be enough to upset the young turks (who are looking good) at Saints?

It's definitely a stronger Essendon team this week and they are not without a chance. Personally, I favour the Saints, but I don't think it's anywhere near as clear cut as form would make you believe. If you go on form, the Saints simply MUST win, but you should always take into account the 'Bounce Back Factor'. I've seen it so many times before. When a team is soundly beaten one week and criticised heavily for it, they often tend to come out far more determined and fired up the next week, especially if they go from playing away to playing at home.

Look what happened last night. On last week's form, Richmond simply HAD to win, but Football doesn't work that way. After a poor performance the week before, I thought the Demons would probably come out firing last night and they did.

Essendon were awful last week, but they WERE playing Port Adelaide IN Adelaide and I had always thought Port would win that comfortably anyway. Essendon are a far more successful team when Dustin Fletcher is playing and if Hird and Lloyd can get plenty of the ball, they have a good chance. I really think the Saints are a strong team this year, but Grant Thomas will have to keep a lid on things and not let all those young guys get too excited.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-04-03 08:00 ]

The $1.85 with 10.5 start will do me. Go the Bombers!!

__________________
Ta me go maith

Bad luck Paddy. The Bombers put in a much better effort than the previous week, but this IS a pretty good St Kilda team.

Sports, You were right about the Saints...early days yet but they will only get better and gain more confidence...Sheedy has been around the trenches for awhile and will know what to do to get the Bombers firing again...

How's those Eagles eh? First time I have ever picked them in a footy tipping comp cos am a Dockers fan and the ************s lose!!!LOL!!! Not surprising!

So you're the ************ that did it? :grin:

Yeah, they would have won if they hadn't hit the post 3 times in the last quarter from no more than 20m out. That must have been the Desi Curse! :lol:

Yeh, a strong performance by St Kilda :sad:

__________________
Ta me go maith