Sure the brumbies are an awesome team, I just think they are overrated.

I really hate to go against the cats after they've treated me so well (I've only lost once in the 9 games they've been in). Just that the system says blues -2 and the bookies say -2 to -3. If I found a spread which allowed me to bet the cats I'd do it, but I haven't found one yet. I wasn't going to bet at all until I found the blues to win at 1.96 outright.

I don't want to be betting on cats +2.5 at 1.83 if I think the spread & fair price is +2 2.00. BTW the blues have been quite inconsistent (massive win vs the bulls followed by a massive loss to the stormers) and could pull it together like they did against the bulls. The crusaders and chiefs didn't exactly play well against the cats.

Sportznutz do you have the '02 and '03 records for against the spread? I checked out my record and have gone 27-6 on dogs and 11-5 on faves. That mean dogs have covered 32/49 times. I was just wondering if you knew whether it was profitable to just blindly bet S12 dogs.

Do you know how well NRL dogs have performed over the years?

another notch on the bedpost, chiefs over stormers 29-14. Damn shame the chiefs got that final try, I was hoping they'd only pick up 4 points.

Mr J,

In 2002, the favourites came out on top, but in 2003 you would have just finished ahead backing all underdogs. On the other hand, just betting blindly on every underdog against the spread this year would have you comfortably in front. By the way, if you backed every underdog this year outright, you'd be easily in front too.

Anyway, here's the 2002 and 2003 results for underdogs against the spread.
2002 29-34
2003 36-29

As for NRL, I'm sorry, but I don't have the 2002 figures right at the moment but here's how underdogs went against the spread in 2003: 93-84. Basically just enough to break even I guess.

Hope that helps.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-04-23 21:10 ]

Yeh, not an obvious trent. Line shopping probally would've given a bit more to the dogs.

Well nearly got the crusaders-bulls score right, real score was 40-21. That's 2 from 2 so far. I'm betting on teams that I really don't want to win (it would've been good for nsw if the chiefs and crusaders both lost).

Highlanders over Hurricanes, 26-14. 3 from 3.

Geez, it must have been a tremendous game in Sydney. Anyway that keeps NSW in the hunt and the Brumbies will still be leading after this round.

Chalk another one up to the Home Dogs too! :smile:

Well I've come home to find my SA bets have won as well, giving me 6 from 6 this weekend.

Yep NSW with a great chance, they should win both of their remaining games. If either the chiefs or stormers don't win all their remaining games then NSW will be in. NSW also has an advantage with the F/A if it comes down to that. Maybe my sharks at 150.00 won't make it :sad: It's a damn shame nsw didn't walk away with 5 points though.

Anyway the chiefs must defend against the brumbies and bulls, with the stormers playing the crusaders and sharks. Chances are one of these teams will drop a game. NSW doesn't need to worry about the sharks (the sharks are less likely to walk away with 5 points and they have a lower F/A).

BTW the reds beating the sharks outright with only one try scored in the match. No-one on this earth would have predicted that scoreline (not even my system :wink: )

Sportz, not bad for home dogs, they went
2-1.

Great picks Mr J...you were bang on!

Your call with the Chiefs, Blues, NSW were spot on...did you back the Reds?

Chiefs lifted to play a great game and NSW showed they could play the full 80 mins....excellent game...the talent amongst both backlines!!! Think Finnegan struggled with the pace and the NSW back rowers really gave the edge to the Warratahs...they are definitely in with a chance if they can maintain the momentum. But would not write off ACT, they came back to lead 3 mins to go and should have closed shop...ref was a little whistle happy I thoought.

Blues played well and could worry the Sharks next week! Did my money in with the Cats...d'oh!

The Reds v Sharks game was a shocker but really like the guts and determination of the Reds forwards (in fact the whole team including Wendell!)

Crusaders still have some defensive lapses to sort out...overall, it was a bad weekend for the SA teams.