Yeah, that's what I always think. If you back the outsider to win UNDER the margin and they win OVER, you've correctly tipped an upset and still lost. Personally, if I think the underdogs are going to win, I'll generally play safe and back them on the line. I had the Kangaroos with the start last week and that bet was never really in doubt. If I had backed them 1-39 which is the result I would have predicted, then I wouldn't have been happy at all.

Is it just me or are the games pretty uninspiring this week in both NRL and AFL? I think this will be a rather quiet betting weekend for me on both sports.

sportz, i backed the kangaroos straight out last week because of the poor away record of port, nothing else, the roos were at home so i backed them, but if they were away to port i might have bet on the margin instead, if i thought they could win..
The teams i picked this week, bris,kangaroos, hawthorn and w/bulldogs are in what i call close but winnable games and are the away teams, I think they can win , away teams are more likely to win under rather than over, buts only my opinion.

I hope you see what i mean, as i said before i only bet on this method ocasionally, when i see a suitable game.

cheers

Agree with you sportz, nothing jumped up at me this week, just a few small multis , the NRL is average due to 3 byes and players missing to s.o.o so i have looked at the w/ tigers to lift me, but i'm looking forward to watching the dockers/ lions clash in a whats looks to be a ho hum weekend.

Sportznut
After last weeks effort you're probably all out of adrenalin.
Count your winnings.Smell them,enjoy the feel.Don't go giving them back for the sake of having a bet.
In a fortnight you will get the rush back.
Gambling addiction is only a curse when it gets out of hand.

"sometimes the bludgers got flogged"
Goldmember! Thats okay to say about horses and jockeys,but never say that about an AFL player.If you and me could win all the time,do you think the world would be a more interesting place.
So much for todays Psychology lesson.
All tongue in cheek,aye

Onyas all - Mo.

Do any of you have any reason to think that Richmond might beat Port today .
In essence is $1.47 fair to good odds or not
I think ,,,yep
or drawing a comparison which is better value

Port 1.47
or
Brumbies 1.48
I think .. Port
Opinions appreciated

[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-05-22 09:30 ]

Floydyboy,i normally back port at home, they have a few out,franco, primus ,carr, pickett, kingsley, but still a fairly strong team on paper, tredrea,the cornes brothers,the burgoyne bros,wakelin,dew and wanganeen. I backed them 2 weeks ago against adelaide and they were ordinary and last week they were pathetic against the kangaroos and if they do what the w/bulldogs did last week [play small men on him] they could lose this one,i hope they play bishop on richardson to minimise his input, honestly i dont think their any value at that price,i rate them a $1.70 chance, so i will be just watching the game.

Their record over there might get them home,also richo has kicked only 16 goals in 7 games against port, but they wont be carrying mine this time.

cheers

When I make my selections for the AFL,I go back further than the last start of each team.
Assess what a team is capable of scoring and then subtracting points for poor recent form.
After round-5,I had Port capable of scoring about 109 and Richmond 65,a margin of 44 points to Port.
Since then I penalise Port 4 pts. for Adelaide loss,and another 9 for Kangas loss.
Richmond gains 2 points for Hawks win.Only 4 points for Sydney mud win and another 2 pts. for Bulldogs.Beating bottom of the ladder teams is no big deal.
So Port can kick 96 points and Richmond 73.
Port by 23,plus another 9 for home ground advantage.
32 points comes out to $1.22 Port
$5.50 Richmond.
Players missing,Wanganeen again.Don't know what to allow for that.So I don't.If you like to take 15 points off then the margin becomes 17.
Port $1.44 - Richmond $3.25
No value now.

It needs to be done now not after the game.
I spend a lot of time in my local TAB.
Favourite past-time of many punters is showing losing tickets and then saying I was gunna or I shooda.

Good Luck all.
Mo.

They have been slipping since winning their opening 3 games, losing to melb[73 pts]beating w/bulldogs " beating a bottom of the ladder team is no big deal", struggled to beat collingwood, bottom of the ladder- no big deal again and losing to the crows and then last weeks shamble, and you rated them @ $1.22. ????

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-05-22 10:26 ]

See how it helps when you have a look from the other side of the fence ?
I thought I had penalized Port enough but it seems not.
You analyzed Ports form very well Goldmember.
I'll have a go by memory of Richmond.
Big win against Collingwood,was it a belting by Melbourne?,certainly was by St.Kilda,and Geelong,spat on after Crows,Hawthorn playing even worse,great leveller rain,okay good win against the Bulldogs.
I think whatever happens its probably a good game to sterr clear of.
But a system is a system,so forgive me of setting my wager.

Cheers mo.