Hi,
I use Time extensively in my handicapping and one of the first things one needs to do is find out how far is a Length, especially when only the winners time is recorded an the Judge just takes measurements of Lenghts beaten off the photo.

I have added a spreadsheet that gives some insight into the effect of speed on Lengths beaten an the distance difference at differing speeds.

Attached Files

lngbtn1.xls (42.5 KB, 517 views)

Great stuff Woof,
I to do the same thing but have been very unlucky selecting my top pick on speed alone and lenghts beaten.

Started of great and i thought here we go but as with most things???????
If a dog is comming down in distance for todays race what sort of penalty/ bouns do you use and what other methods could i be looking at in regard to dogs comming down/ up in distance.
Also different track types.
1,2,3 corners, slope, etc ....
Any other ideas would be welcomming.

__________________
Never give up

If you just divide time into distance you and make no adjustments,then dog with the avg shorter distances raced would normally appear to be the fastest, so you do need to make adjustments from track to track.

A starting point would be to gather all the win times for each track an distance in the State for a set period or for a set number of winners,then find the avg Win Time an the Standard deviation for all those times.

Now to find the Fixed Standard for each track, multiply the Standard Deviation by 1.96, then subtract this from your average time, this will become your Fixed Point for this Track but the main problem now is how to identify/quantify the effect of Better Classes of runners from track to track.

I'll post some more later this evening, once racing has finished

Thanks for that,
What do you think about using the weight of a dog.........

Yes ive been trying to identify/quantify the Better Class of runners from track to track but seems to me as it is a bit hit an miss at this time.
Cheers

__________________
Never give up

I would have thought you wouldn't need to quantify the different classes, just compare pure times. Why doesn't that work?

No-one has talked about the most important factor in doing dog form - 1st sectional time and racing style.
The "fastest" dog does not always win the race. Many times the "fastest" dog does not get into the race because of what happens in the run to the first turn. I consistenly see dogs at Angle Park that in a solo trial would break 29.8 seconds yet get beaten in a race in 30.25sec so you are barking up the wrong tree if you think the dog with the best speed rating is the logical winner.

Who is going to "control" the race at the first turn?
Be able to answer that question for dog races and you're nearly there.

I'm afraid there are no shortcuts.If you don't watch video replays and understand what every dog does in terms of running style and best and average first sectional, middle sectional and last sectional, I think you are facing an uphill battle.

I agree that track to track times can differ, be it shape of track or the surface, But, as far as class goes I am with Duritz. It all depends on the time.

If a maiden dog runs 31.00 seconds to win a race, and then in a free for all over the same distance, the winner also runs 31.00 seconds. To me the performance is equal, and the class of the race is irrelevant.

About lengths beaten and time, I don't at all agree that 1 length equals .066 seconds. In a short race with the dogs running at 18 m/s 1 length is less time than in a 700 m race when they are going at about 16 m/s. I call 1 length 1 metre.
eg. A dog wins a 520 metre race in 31 seconds. A dog that gets beaten by 10 lengths, I consider to have ran a 510 metre race in 31 seconds. Convert that to m/s and then back to the original 520 metres.....

My 3 criteria are :
The fastest speed in m/s (using the last 3 starts, and converting them to current distance).
The fastest average speed in m/s(3 starts).
The current race distance must be within 10% of the average distance of the last 3 starts.
I will add in a fourth criteria which may appear obvious, every dog in the race must have had at least 3 race starts (not trials).

The reason I do this is because I figure that the dogs singled out will be quick out of the box and less likely to get into trouble. A fall in any start is considered as a 15 length loss. I do not want to back a dog that gets midfield and into trouble.

As far as boxes are concerned, I think the middle boxes are underbacked so will make up for any bias. I always bet to return a figure rather than have a level stake.

The whole point of having a system, is to have it as simple as possible with as little work. While I am still learning about data input from the web, this is as challenging as I feel it needs to be.
I do however treat others ideas with merit, as long as people have the means and the knowledge to put it into practice.

Hi Duritz,
When you gather Win Times from track to track,each tracks average will be in isolation, cause you will have better dogs racing at one place and not the other so when the dogs from the lesser track race at the better track they will have been over compensated in time adjustment and will perform worse than expected.
You need to record those dogs that have then won at both tracks and then you will find the difference in Class from track to track.

An example would be say The two Victorian city clubs the time differences in avg times would be around .22 which is very similiar to the track record from both tracks this is because the same dogs race there from meeting to meeting, my actual Class difference is .03 with The Meadows having the better types so the difference is around .188.

Regarding 1st Sectionals these definately are most important, and of all times these are the easiest to be compared and quantified from track to track, all thats needed is the distance from boxes to the first measuring point.

Because most of my processes are automated, when i have dragged out the Formlines for each dog in Todays race they are ranked then on 1st Sectional data, now based on that ranking say its in the top two i then find the avg finish time for that dog whenever it has raced in the first2, if there is insufficent data i create synthetic data based on other dogs performances from my database, then i can move to my next step in the process.

A second method if you don't have 1st sectional data, depending if you have true and meaningful track adjustments. Once you have standardised the past formlines you then isolate the formlines based on distances ie, under 400 >400<500, and so on. Then find the average for each time bin, this can/will provide a pretty good idea of who the 1st Sectional contenders will be in Todays race.

Hey BJ,
Winner in 31sec over 520 mtrs...
equals 16.77 meters per sec

Other runner
Beaten 10 meters/lenghts
equals 16.45 meters per sec
so it's time is 31.61 sec

Winner 31.00 sec
Runner 31.61 sec

Am i on the right track ???

If you use 0.066 for one length or 0.07 it gets almost the same result.
Beaten by 10 meters
10*0.066 = 0.66
10*0.07 = 0.7
New time 31.66
New time 31.7

Just trying to understand your handicapping rules, if im wrong could you post a work out.
Cheers

__________________
Never give up