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  #11  
Old 11th November 2012, 05:00 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Nothing wrong with these ides if you have the data to test on, but what if you have some ides you want to test?

A few years back a post was made for testing systems without a data base.


That is also an exceptional post - A dose of reality, human nature, mathematics, common sense and generosity, all rolled up in one message.

This one is perhaps the biggest clue to overall success on the punt...

*Do what other punters do and do it better than them.
*Do something other punters aren't doing, exploiting a niche.

Thank you Hermes(and Shaun for unearthing such a beauty)

Cheers LG
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  #12  
Old 11th November 2012, 05:32 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Default System Testing

A method I've used with some success is to take my d/b (14 yrs), split it in 2 parts, develop the idea on one lump and then run test the produced system on the other. That avoids testing a system on the data that was used to develop it.
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  #13  
Old 12th November 2012, 04:15 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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demodocus i've been reading quite a bit on creating systems/models for NBA recently and what you've posted relates to what i've been reading.

The guys on there would use 1 set of data to create the system. They would then use a second set of data to test and make any slight adjustments that may smooth the results to be more aligned etc providing it still shows a profit on this data. If its not showing a profit on this data after it did on the original data you used to create the system, then go straight back to the drawing board.

Once the second lot of data even with some tweaks has validated the system, run a final test on a 3rd set of data without any tweaks at all. If you continue to be profitable on this data without much change to the results (SR, POT etc) then your on a winner, if it falls over at this step then back to the drawing board.

Creating systems, ratings, models is not an easy process, if it was everyone would do it and everyone would be millionaires. I've been lucky enough to have some success with my ratings for Australian horse racing, but trying to crack it with a model for the NBA has been near on impossible for me so far.

I think finding a niche where you have some form of an edge is vital. American sports is very difficult to find an edge because the market is so huge and there are so many people betting on it, identifying the sharp lines and therefore creating lines that are very much a 50/50 spread across the season.

This is where Australian horse racing is different, you can find an edge a lot easier IMO. The public are prone to betting on a 100 rater or the top weight or the TAB's tips etc (sometimes all 3 align for a lot of public money). These horses may very well be the favourites for good reason in a race, but it means the odds available are way under the horses actually chance/ability to win the race. This provides opportunity at the other end of the scale providing you can select the right horses at the right time.

I'll post some stats tonight that i've found over the weekend using my ratings that are particularly interesting to horse numbers 10 and below (i.e. lower weighted horses). It's basically shown that whenever my ratings have had a top rater with a TAB number 10 or higher (11,12,13 etc) the POT is huge as its simply an underbet and underrated part of the market.

Anyway thats a bit off track but hopefully that adds to the discussion.
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  #14  
Old 12th November 2012, 07:18 PM
Luxinterior Luxinterior is offline
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Where are the best places to get hold of the following ....
A: a database
B: system developing / system testing tools
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  #15  
Old 12th November 2012, 07:53 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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The 2 i know of are both run by members of this forum UselessBettor has a free service run from a webpage, he would have to post the link as it seams to have changed.

Has a lot of variables but a limited database at this time but he is building on it.


If you are after a more private testing ground with a larger database go here http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html this one is run by Chrome Prince and compared to others around is a very good price.
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  #16  
Old 13th November 2012, 06:43 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Another way to test a system is run the system in 5 or more batches of 150 bets.

We can then judge the consistency from there.

Another is to break up the race number into odds or evens or days into odd or evens.
If it is heavily skewed one way, more research will need to be done.
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  #17  
Old 29th November 2012, 08:46 AM
aussielongboat aussielongboat is offline
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FWIW
this is how i go about it.
1. I have designed my data capture so that it can easily be tested. Each starter holds about 300 pieces of information in its form that can be easily filtered out.
2. To sustain in this business you need a very user friendly system and approach.
3. Believe me the punting gods are very cruel and the minute you can’t be bothered and stop because you have had a bad day is the moment the big results is next in line. It has happened to me more than once where I can’t be stuffed putting the Europe night bets on only to get up in the morning and see 3 x 20-1 shots got up. It happened yesterday – near nil return in the day - $2.5k down – had a selection at Limerick – reluctantly put 120 on it and lo and behold – at 12.50AM it wins at $32.40. So to have something that works easy is imperative.
4. The results are incorporated into the data after the race has been completed. both the SP , the dividends and the beaten lengths – 0 lengths for the winner
5. Every horse race covered by Tattsbet is for the last 2 years is in the data base
6. When I have an idea I want to test I break my data into 3 data sets. I massage data set 1 as much as I like until I get a winning formula
7. I then test with absolutely no changes in data set 2. If it’s OK I go to data set3
8. I am always on the lookout for /wary of long priced winners that make it look good.
9. I want to see firstly a continued strike rate and secondly same or better POT.
10. Even after that I’ll let it run for another 6 months before I use my own money
11. I try to look where no-body else might be looking- to improve my price.
12. The all horserace average SP of the winner is around $7.80 and has been for at least the last 25 years that I can see- thus every horse in every race has some chance – by not concentrating on the obvious you improve your dividend.
13. Understanding of probability and “run of outs (‘ROO’)” is important. If you have a 12% SR a ROO of 20 is NOT uncommon.
14. Your bank needs to be about 5000 divided by your SR. so for 12% you need 5000/12 = 416x etc.

good luck every body

aussielong
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  #18  
Old 29th November 2012, 10:50 AM
TheSchmile TheSchmile is offline
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Hi Aussielongboat,

Looks like you've got it together!

Thanks for such a detailed insight into both your testing and punting approach.

I wish you the best of luck!!
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  #19  
Old 29th November 2012, 07:49 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
14. Your bank needs to be about 5000 divided by your SR. so for 12% you need
5000/12 = 416x etc.

This seems more then reasonable for a betting system. Whats your thoughts on a laying strike rate ?
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  #20  
Old 30th November 2012, 05:48 AM
aussielongboat aussielongboat is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
This seems more then reasonable for a betting system. Whats your thoughts on a laying strike rate ?


probabaly use the same formula.
5000/SR
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