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  #31  
Old 19th May 2019, 03:10 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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If you are looking for a simple system that should win (please note I haven't tested this). The rules are simple:

Take any ratings method, in this case I will take Prepost odds.
What is the worst rated horse of the day (ie highest prepost odds)?
Lay it on betfair SP.
If there are multiple at the same odds you can either decide or lay both. You choose your risk.

You could start with a bank of $300 lay 10% of your amount (which is a very high risk percentage) and likely double it by the end of the year.

I haven't tested it and I am almost certain that people won't follow it because its a get rich slow system. If you decide to test it out let me know how you go. This is not a system I follow but could easily code but I just can't be bothered to do it right now as I have other more profitable angles to work on.
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  #32  
Old 20th May 2019, 08:41 AM
thorns thorns is offline
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What do you think is harder to find an edge in? Metro racing or Country/Provinical races?

The next part of that question would be, if you find an edge in country races, how easy is it to destroy your edge with you own money even though it might not be much? I'm guessing on the smaller races, a small extra amount on betfair starts to eat into an edge pretty quickly?
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  #33  
Old 20th May 2019, 06:24 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
What do you think is harder to find an edge in? Metro racing or Country/Provinical races?

The next part of that question would be, if you find an edge in country races, how easy is it to destroy your edge with you own money even though it might not be much? I'm guessing on the smaller races, a small extra amount on betfair starts to eat into an edge pretty quickly?


I find edges everywhere in lots of sports. Those sports or races less followed by others are always easier to find edges on because there is more chance for it being incorrectly priced.

To the second part of your question the answer is absolutely. I'll even give you an example. USA racing at betfair. You can theoretically make money laying every horse at $30 or higher on Betfair SP in the US. Problem is as soon as you put the minimum liability of even $30 the odds blow out (no one wants to be on the long shots in the US at all) and something that was $50 is now out to $150 with your minimum lay on it.

I also have to constantly monitor the strike rate vs odds of my systems to check if the edge has eroded with my bets and even as others catch on. I am always adjusting and making sure I can place the optimum bet size for the money in the market and the likely money to be put into that market.

Finding edges is easy but ensuring they are still working long term is hard and knowing when to pull the system from betting is very important for a systems bettor. You can't expect to create many systems and expect them to run forever without some improvement or adjustments. Some do last the test of time, and others are discovered by other punters and slowly lose their edges.
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  #34  
Old 21st May 2019, 04:00 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Thanks for that.

That's some thing I have also noticed & thought , "Why is it so"

The ever shifting sands.
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  #35  
Old 21st May 2019, 06:43 AM
thorns thorns is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I find edges everywhere in lots of sports. Those sports or races less followed by others are always easier to find edges on because there is more chance for it being incorrectly priced.

To the second part of your question the answer is absolutely. I'll even give you an example. USA racing at betfair. You can theoretically make money laying every horse at $30 or higher on Betfair SP in the US. Problem is as soon as you put the minimum liability of even $30 the odds blow out (no one wants to be on the long shots in the US at all) and something that was $50 is now out to $150 with your minimum lay on it.

I also have to constantly monitor the strike rate vs odds of my systems to check if the edge has eroded with my bets and even as others catch on. I am always adjusting and making sure I can place the optimum bet size for the money in the market and the likely money to be put into that market.

Finding edges is easy but ensuring they are still working long term is hard and knowing when to pull the system from betting is very important for a systems bettor. You can't expect to create many systems and expect them to run forever without some improvement or adjustments. Some do last the test of time, and others are discovered by other punters and slowly lose their edges.


I have been finding the same thing backing roughies to place in some of the Country meeting pools, looks fantastic on paper, but my money on betfair seems to stuff the odds, cant get anywhere near the similar results, frustrating.

In regards to sports, where do you even start? It might as well be a foreign language to me lol, racing I have millions of ideas, sports betting I got nothing.
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  #36  
Old 21st May 2019, 09:56 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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thorns,

sports is exactly the same process. Find a sport, grab the data, find the edges, work out how to make them work long term.

That is the simple explanation.
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  #37  
Old 23rd May 2019, 09:39 AM
thorns thorns is offline
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Laying to liability versus laying to fixed stake amount.

If I had a system which shows the following at BFSP

Win
Selections: 1318
$1 invest return : 945 (-372 units)
$100 liability return : $56 (after 10% comm)

Place
Selections: 1318
$1 invest return: 1010 (-307 units)
$100 liability return: $606 (after 10% comm)

Can you read much into the difference between flat and liability results? On limited data like the above, does the fact that $100 liability is pretty much break even suggest that the system is probably more likely to correct itself on flat stakes? (note: I would expect both the liability figures to change a bit as these are all being treated as individual events, so commission not taking into account other winners/losers in a race)

The next question, do you think it'd be better to back around these runners instead of laying them? If you have a set of ratings where the top 4 are roughly even on BFSP, and you bet only into these races where you can eliminate some of the runners, are you shifting the edge into your favor?
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  #38  
Old 23rd May 2019, 04:48 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
Laying to liability versus laying to fixed stake amount.

If I had a system which shows the following at BFSP

Win
Selections: 1318
$1 invest return : 945 (-372 units)
$100 liability return : $56 (after 10% comm)

Place
Selections: 1318
$1 invest return: 1010 (-307 units)
$100 liability return: $606 (after 10% comm)



You do know that laying to a liability is flat stakes and laying to a certain return is actually variable staking ? I'll use your terminology to keep it easier to understand.


Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
Can you read much into the difference between flat and liability results?


You can't tell much out of those results. I really need average odds, winners, losers, etc to make a better judgement.


Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
On limited data like the above, does the fact that $100 liability is pretty much break even suggest that the system is probably more likely to correct itself on flat stakes? (note: I would expect both the liability figures to change a bit as these are all being treated as individual events, so commission not taking into account other winners/losers in a race)


No. Different staking should be viewed as a different system altogether.

When you have profitable systems you want to assess them against your draw down to determine the best return vs risk. That is the most important figure to use. Don't ever use Raw Profit dollars or even worse POT.


Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
The next question, do you think it'd be better to back around these runners instead of laying them?


No. Backing and laying need to be assessed differently as the effect of commission is completely different between the two methods. Just because a method loses while laying doesn't mean it will win backing and vice versa. Assess everything the way you intend to bet it and ensure you have enough data and you assess it right to ensure you have a likely long term edge.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
If you have a set of ratings where the top 4 are roughly even on BFSP, and you bet only into these races where you can eliminate some of the runners, are you shifting the edge into your favor?


Again it all depends on the commission impact especially when dutching. Making a profit before dutching on betfair is very easy. Making a profit after commission when dutching just a few runners takes skill and hard work. You may increase your strike rate or your profit but without knowing how commission affects it at the new strike rate you are flying blind.

Just test, test and do more testing of your ideas. You have the ideas there and thats the right starting point. Your thinking of different staking, dutching different selections, etc. You could also throw in different price ranges in there for testing. So its just a matter of testing all the combinations till you find something that works for you.


Sorry probably not as much help as I you would have liked except more hard work on your side testing
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  #39  
Old 23rd May 2019, 05:13 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Well answered UB
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  #40  
Old 23rd May 2019, 06:07 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Generally, it works out better to bet to price, rather than liability , especially on the shorter prices.

Betting to Price
eg. $100/ $1.80 = O/L $55.55

Betting to Liability (AKA betting to fractional odds)
eg. $100/ $1.80 = O/L $125.00

Huge difference, percentage wise..
Welcome to the Odd-On Zone. (Not good)

If this bet fails, it's going to be a lot harder to recover with the longer priced selections and that's not a strong position to be coming from, as a punter.

When you do a number of bets , you will see the difference.
I would suggest breaking up those bet stats into 2 value groups , lower priced & upper priced group.
Work out the middle price & go from there.
This should give the figures more perspective for ones brain to digest.

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