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  #61  
Old 16th June 2019, 04:59 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reveen
As you have mentioned before you bet into all racing codes. How many sports do you cover?


Quite a few. I am more heavily focused on soccer(football) because of the amount of games which are played a day but I also bet on AFL, NRL, baseball, basketball, NFL, cricket and tennis.

I would like to expand further and include Golf, e-sports, boxing, MMA, etc but I just don't have the bandwidth to do it currently.

Once you know how to analyse data for one sport it is easier to analyse data from any sport. The hardest bit usually is getting the data and getting enough data especially with sports. With racing there are races every few minutes around the world running 24/7. For sports you might only get 10-15 basketball matches in a day which can be bet on. Soccer you still have probably 50-300 games a day which at least adds up and is why I am more heavily in that sport. Things like NRL there are only 26 * 8 matches a year. You need to be able to generalise the team information and group them together in order to get anything useful.
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  #62  
Old 18th June 2019, 10:57 AM
kelvin1645 kelvin1645 is offline
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UB - are you Zeljko Ranogajec by chance?
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  #63  
Old 18th June 2019, 06:54 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kelvin1645
UB - are you Zeljko Ranogajec by chance?


I am sure he does way better then me. He hires people, rents offices, etc. I am just a one man show doing this in his spare time after my day job on my laptop. Zeljko does way more turnover than me.

My goal is to get to a billion dollars in turnover per year. I believe he was doing that a long time ago and I would be scared to think what he does these days in turnover. My current turnover this year (as of right now) is $108,098,520.

I am on track for over $200 million this year in turnover. You can't be losing at these stakes. Its still a long way to my goal though so I have to stay focused and disciplined which is very hard to do.


Read below it does relate to punting but goes off course for a bit and comes back.

A bit of topic but going to add it to this post is that I had a friend ask today about side incomes and I said he could easily make money in web sites if he put in the time. He asked how much and I said over 100K in two years is very possible. All he needed was

1. A process on how to do it
2. Feed forward goals and not end goals.
3. Effort.

So to elaborate:

1. If you have a process that makes $1 per month with a web site, you should be able to scale that one web site to make $1000 a month following the same process (X articles to bring in Y visitors who on average earn you W dollars). Its not hard and you can purchase the processes out there to short cut your progress (I do like income schools process for new sites). So that settles the process.

2. You don't want to have a goal of $1000 for the site. That is a crap goal. Or a goal of $100K in profits as that is another crap goal. You need feed forward goals. These are the metrics that will deliver you the success sometime in the future. So look at what I posted. We need X articles to get Y visitors to make W dollars. who cares about Y and W as we can not directly influence them. We can influence X articles. So if we assume 1 article brings in 10 visitors and each visitor earns you $1 then to make your $1000 per month is a matter of bringing in 1000 visitors. That means you need to write 100 articles. Its simple math. Some articles will bring in 5 visitors and some will bring in 20, and you can't influence that apart from doing a quality article. Your goal should be to write 100 articles. But even this is too hard a goal to achieve. So lets aim to do this over a year. 100 articles is 2 articles per week roughly. Not so hard to do now. Your goal is 2 articles per week.

3. Effort is where people fall down. Writing 2 good quality articles takes around 4 to 5 hours. Its about 2 hours per article and a bit extra for posting and getting images. Suppose he is super keen and actually sticks with this for the entire year he will now only be making $1000 per month ongoing. That's a lot of work for $1000 per month. He isn't going to retire on $1000 per month. He also needs to sustain this for a full year and make up for times when on holidays, being slack or being sick. Hardly seems worth it. So lets see where it becomes worthwhile is really around $10,000 per month. That is 10 times the income per month and might be with a suite of 10-20 websites. So to get to 10 times the amount he needs to do it for 10 years and he will be making $120K per year from it. If you were told you could do this at the age of 20 would it be worthwhile to do it? yeah probably. But what if your 40 or 50. it seems like you can't do it but that is not true. You need to put in 10X the effort (thanks Grant Cardone for this tip as its worked for me) and reap the benefits in a year. So instead of doing 5 hours a week you need to do 50 hours every single week. At the end of one year you may be making $10,000 per month. But a warning should be put in place here that the sustained effort is hard to do and not for everyone. Most people will burn out.

Now to relate this back to punting. I won't burn out because I am passionate about it but I could spend 20-50 hours in a week on it because I find it fun. To spend 20+ hours watching sport, races or analyzing data is almost a normal week for me. So I am 10X the punting analysis that a typical losing punter would do. So every year I gain 10 years ahead of any punter only doing 5 hours a week.

My friend thinks I am nuts when I say I am lazy. He is probably right but I have so many ideas and so many new angles to attack or new data to collect that I never want to stop.
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  #64  
Old 19th June 2019, 10:49 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
Is that just an example UB or is that a fact? If true, how has Winx affected the outcome in this price range?


Last 15 years 69.5% WSR for a small loss on TAB.
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  #65  
Old 19th June 2019, 05:51 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Last 15 years 69.5% WSR for a small loss on TAB.


Chasing the best bookie price would be profitable.
Best Tote is profitable.
Betfair SP is profitable.

Considering the first two options are either not available to big bettors or too much work Betfair SP is the easiest option. I have used the price 10 seconds to the jump as the price to use for selection.
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