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  #1  
Old 21st August 2021, 07:58 PM
Try Try Again Try Try Again is offline
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Default Do Tipsters' Selections Lead to Profits?

Has anyone looked at Tipster's selections as a way of working out a price to bet to collect a predetermined amount?

I have a "stable" of 35 Tipsters which I use to determine horses to consider.

Has anyone else tried this approach?
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  #2  
Old 22nd August 2021, 01:23 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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OK
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  #3  
Old 22nd August 2021, 06:16 PM
Try Try Again Try Try Again is offline
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Thanks for the reply Partypooper (Ha Ha), great to see you are still going strong, especially in these difficult times.

One thing I have noticed with using the Tipster's selections is how the Jockey plays such a significant part when backing the selection. I have found that jockeys you would expect to win fall short time and time again. Others you would not expect, as they are not in the top Jockey group, continually deliver victories.

I am talking about Melbourne races, but I am looking at Sydney races as well (but very early stages)

Do you use the Retirement Staking Plan? (I may be wrong but I think I sent you a copy of the spreadsheet a few of years ago).

TTA
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  #4  
Old 25th August 2021, 01:19 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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G'Day TRY,

Yes still here, NO MORTGAGE, but no private jet YET ! with the tipsters thing, you know they do pretty good all things considering. I've found that just deleting ALL odds on and ALL HEAVY tracks improves that bottom line.

You can can get many breaking even Or a bit better. You can improve that into profit using BFSP, or better still using BET BOOSTS etc, but best of all is using BET RETURNS. Question there of course is how long will you get away with THAT!? hahahah!
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  #5  
Old 25th August 2021, 06:20 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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I remember a thread on here once that said something like look for the odd man out or back the tipsters second pick if you had 10 or more.
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  #6  
Old 25th August 2021, 08:23 PM
Try Try Again Try Try Again is offline
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Thanks for the replies guys. It seems there is very little discussion going on now-a-days which is more the pity.

One aspect I have looked at is

1. Only considering the first 5 races on Saturday Melbourne meetings.
2. In Race 1 back Tipster's top selection for 1 unit a win
3. If a winner, pull up stumps, job done
4. If a loser, in Race 2 back Tipster's top selection for 2 units a win
5. If a winner, pull up stumps, job done
6. If a loser, In Race 3 back Tipster's top selection for 3 units a win
7. If a winner, pull up stumps, job done
8. Continue through Race 4 and 5 stopping at a winner or betting 4 units or 5 units.
9. Maximum loss is 15 units per meeting

Most Tipsters have a positive POT% after upto 80 meetings (some Tipsters have less meetings due to holidays etc, and me finding newer Tipsters to include).

Although not actual Tipsters, among the worst performers are horses with highest win%, highest place % and horses with highest average prize money. LOT are -27.4%, -35.0% & -40.4% respectively. I find this quite interesting as Win%, Place% and Average Prize Money are areas often used to zero in on horse selections.

Prepost Favourite currently has a 12.9% POT (62.9 unit profit on 487 unit turnover) which may substantiate the theory more favourites win on earlier races.

I appreciate any comments.

TTA
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  #7  
Old 26th August 2021, 07:57 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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One of the guys I know uses tipsters but he uses a Baysian approach to it. He says it works well.

Here is a rough guide to it: https://www.sportstradingnetwork.co...sters-final.pdf

Another interesting read: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting...NL2722PUAZM4Q8Q

Hope that helps.
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  #8  
Old 30th August 2021, 08:57 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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This approach can work well, using the tipsters.

RULES
Target tipsters 2nd & 3rd sel (Ignore Top sel)

Selection is the horse that is $3.20+ in the Fixed price TAB/Bookies price or , at 30 secs until jump time.

If still left with 2 horses . Take the shorter price of the $3.20 runners.

Target first 5 races for each venue.
It usually hits one winner in first 5 races.

Stop at that venue after each win.
Do the same for each venue. First 5 races only.

Betting $2,3,4,5,6 = 20
For 5 bets only , then start again.

The plan hits many good prices, especially where there is an odds on runner in the race.

Try it out.

Cheers.
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  #9  
Old 30th August 2021, 10:30 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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I forgot to add ,

Have 12 banks of 20 units = 240

This allows for 60 outs.

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