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  #11  
Old 7th October 2021, 11:26 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Here is the stable it threw up for Round 2:
Zaaki (c)
I'm Thunderstruck
Anamoe
Profondo
Paulele
Head Of State
Artorius
Coastwatch

I had it in mind to see what the result would be if I searched for the best eight, rather than taking up the emergency spot with a $50k option and using the money elsewhere. I figured - and Round 1 demonstrated - that you couldn't be sure that all the others would succeed, so you may as well pick the best that you could afford for when they're invariably called upon. As it so happens this week, Profondo at $50k was a selection anyway, so it wasn't a call I had to actually make.

Even less of a concern was the salary cap: this stable comes in $275k under my limit and still well under what a new entrant could afford. It'll be interesting to see how content players will be to spend less than they have in the kitty. They might be enticed to splurge on more expensive candidates, simply because the money is there, even though it may make sense this round to go cheaper.

There are two races where I have two runners. I ran it through some Monte Carlo simulations and while Profondo and Head Of State don't have a consequential impact upon each other, Anamoe trips up Artorius just enough that the latter slips out of my stable. Probabeel would be my next choice (whose utility/probability score is in turn slightly impacted by Zaaki), but I'm $25k shy of the price - last round's shortfall being compounded...

Instead I'll be bringing September Run in for Artorius and hoping things fall my way. I'm estimating a score of 195pts (prior to double captain and jockey contributions).

Bonus: given the prices of my horses, if any of them win then I'll be eligible for the full increase to the salary cap.

The other alternative I had was a "just win" team that only concerned itself with first place odds. It actually turned out to be the same stable I'm going with, aside from Floating Artist coming in for Head Of State. The team's estimate is only a fraction of a point less. They're both in 13-horse fields and though Head Of State is currently at slightly longer odds - and affected somewhat by Profondo - the chance it has of scoring 40 in a G1 puts it just ahead of Floating Artist who can only get the highest possible score of 32 from a G2.

The Top 5 jockeys to pick for mine are:
James McDonald
Damien Oliver
Jye McNeil
Craig Williams
Hugh Bowman

...with JMac clear on top.
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  #12  
Old 9th October 2021, 11:04 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Sliding doors.... If I had that extra $25k from last week that I wanted I would have missed September Run's failure, gained Probabeel's win (+$25k), and finished over 5000 places higher for the round. I'm also not sure how late it happened, but the odds of Head Of State and Never Been Kissed pretty much flipped by race-time, so I would have went with the latter had that information come soon enough and finished slightly better again.

Captain Zaaki not winning was more than a little sub-optimal but, as it was, my estimate of 195pts (before captain and jockey contributions) was close to my actual total of 210. Adding those extras got me to 247, finishing in the top 17% of all stables and in 5874th position.

With two rounds down I jumped up over 2000 spots and am now in the top 18% overall.

My salary cap also went up $125k with 3 Group 1 and 1 Group 2 winners. (Head Of State finishing last in a Group 1 knocked $50k off).

My pick of James McDonald scored the most points as jockey, 13, alongside Damien Oliver.
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  #13  
Old 15th October 2021, 01:40 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Here is the initial squad for Round 2, with my $2mil salary cap:
Incentivise (c)
Nature Strip
Colette
Malkovich
Kapalua Sunset
Curran
Enthaar
Gunstock



Only two runners in each of the Group 1 races this weekend, so there's every chance it'll be a crash-and-burn round. Making it difficult is that most of the horses in the Everest are expensive, and there's a pretty big field in the Caulfield Cup.



Unfortunately it picked 3 runners from the same race (Malkovich, Curran and Enthaar), so I needed to do some further modelling. I don't have great confidence, but it didn't seem to make much difference. All the other options are either too expensive or no better than my 3 selections can manage while tripping each other up.


No surprise to see JMac as the most likeliest of jockeys. I have the Top 5 ranked thusly:
James McDonald
Damian Lane
Jye McNeil
Hugh Bowman
Nash Rawiller
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  #14  
Old 16th October 2021, 09:32 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Plenty of scratchings this morning, so I would be best served by scraping all my data and doing it again but I don't have time. Enthaar was the only one of my stable that was scratched, with Pride of Jenni being the replacement. I happened to notice that Oxley Road was now preferred over Curran in the market, so I swapped those over too.

I'm estimating a score of 123 (before captain and jockey score), much lower than last round and it will be hugely impacted by my results in the two G1 races.
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  #15  
Old 16th October 2021, 08:14 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Well, that's more like it.

I exceeded my estimate by quite a large margin. I was predicting 123 (before captain and jockey score) and ended up with 204. Kapalua Sunset failed and was dropped from the total as my worst scorer. Every other horse bar one (Pride of Jenni) either won their race or came second to another in my stable.

I finally hit maximum points with my captain - and wasn't Incentivise impressive!

The top 4 jockeys this round were all from my top 5 picks, with the other - Hugh Bowman - finishing in equal 7th. Unfortunately my selection James McDonald had his first round where he wasn't the highest scorer, finishing on 9 points; 1 win behind Nash Rawiller.

With my captain score and the jockey points I scored 253. That was good enough for 174th in the round, with the topscoring stable just ahead on 267.

I've zipped up the overall rankings over 4000 spots and am now in 1820th. I'm still 114pts behind the leading stable, so I've no hope of catching them unless they forget some of the upcoming mid-week rounds.

I'll have a little more ammo in my salary cap going forward, with it going up by $125k (Nature Strip was already at max value so didn't increase by anything, despite the win).

Waiting 'til the morning of is definitely an advantage; I just have to figure out how Solver works in this latest version of Excel...
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  #16  
Old 16th October 2021, 08:29 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Hey walkermac,

The #1 stable is my sisters after this 3rd round and is in our propun group. She doesn't know a whole heap about racing i've been helping her out but she wanted to join in since me and my dad were doing it. Still a lot of weeks to go but shes got an 11 point lead over 2nd place at the moment!
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  #17  
Old 16th October 2021, 09:48 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Hey walkermac,

The #1 stable is my sisters after this 3rd round and is in our propun group. She doesn't know a whole heap about racing i've been helping her out but she wanted to join in since me and my dad were doing it. Still a lot of weeks to go but shes got an 11 point lead over 2nd place at the moment!
That's awesome! You're doing pretty alright, yourself. You pair are certainly doing the heavy lifting in getting our league into 48th spot
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  #18  
Old 22nd October 2021, 12:34 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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The only eligible races are at Moonee Valley this weekend, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of very similar stables.

I've gone with:
Zaaki (c)
Anamoe
Elephant
Forgot You
Heresy
Buffalo River
Floating Artist
Pondus

I would have liked Verry Elleegant instead of Pondus, but I'm $125k short. I'm predicting 168 from my Top 7 and before captain/jockey points.

Speaking of, the Top 5 jockeys:
Damien Oliver
James McDonald
Jye McNeil
Damian Lane
Daniel Moor

I' like to double-check my stable following scratchings and odds movements but might not get the chance ahead of the 12:15pm lock-out. We'll see. Best of luck to the people doing well
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  #19  
Old 23rd October 2021, 11:36 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Some pretty substantial scratchings this morning. I managed to change my stable in time but would have liked an extra half hour or so to make it a little less frantic.

Anamoe (c)
Elephant
Verry Elleegant
Pondus
Forgot You
Mo'unga
Heresy
Fortunate Kiss

Predicting around 185, prior to Captain and Jockey points.
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  #20  
Old 23rd October 2021, 09:20 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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And I got 185 points, exactly as predicted. Unfortunately that was with captain and jockey points; not without, as the prediction was made. (Even weirder, my estimate was actually meant to be 153; I was rushing and didn't notice I had a couple other cells selected. The score my predicted top-7 horses actually got was 152).

My jockey Damien Oliver did not score well either. John Allen was the highest scorer and not among my Top 5. The next 3 highest scorers were.

The good news is: the forum's (kinda) own Mia, is still at the top of the leaderboard. The gap has narrowed a little though, with just 5 points now between her and the new second-placed team. The extra salary cap certainly helped; I would have loved to have bought Floating Artist instead of Fortunate Kiss. There are a few teams in the Top 20 with an extra $100k in their salary cap. It'll be interesting to see if they're the ones who do the climbing.

As it was, my 185pts was a little below average; only it didn't drop me down the rankings too much. I'm in 1958th, 125pts off the lead. (Well, technically it's not me; it's the bookies picking this team).

My salary cap went up another $50k.

Next round we're back to double venues (sorta: only 3 of 10 races in Sydney are black type). Then there's a couple of mid-week rounds which I kinda hope other people forget about so that my ranking will rise
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