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  #1  
Old 14th April 2019, 01:57 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Default Ask a profitable punter your questions. I am here to help.

Hi,

I haven't been around on the forum mainly because I've been busy improving my own punting the last few months. But I have been reading the forum again lately and thought I would help out others to get their punting into a profitable situation.

Why do I feel I am qualified to help?
I turnover at least a million dollars every day punting so obviously my punting is profitable.
I spend more hours looking at punting then most people.
I believe I finally have the right mindset where I can help others.
I think that by helping others I may actually improve my own punting.

What I will help with?
Ask any questions you would want to ask a professional punter that you feel will help you with your punting.

What I will not do?
I will not tell you exactly what I do to the nth degree but I will provide enough that you can follow the advice.
I will not tell you my selections partly because I work hard to come up with them and partly because I believe in value and betting the selections is based on the advice available.

I believe most people will never be profitable punters though so keep that in mind. I do not believe people will put in the work required to achieve that level. I also believe people are limited by their mindset and its a hard thing to crack. It took me several goes to get the right mindset and to break mental barriers. I still hit them all the time. The mental game of punting is much harder to succeed at then picking the right horses in the right races.

I'll answer what I can for anyone who wants to learn.
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  #2  
Old 14th April 2019, 07:37 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Ok.

Whats your standards for picking the right race to bet into.

Cheers.
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  #3  
Old 14th April 2019, 10:21 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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I am sure there are many questions people would like to ask and i know i appreciate your offer to answer questions.

I have read many of your post and been given advice in the past, i remember the days when you were the person asking questions from those on the forum so is great to see how you have grown over the years.

I will have a bit of a think before i ask.
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  #4  
Old 15th April 2019, 06:17 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
Ok.

Whats your standards for picking the right race to bet into.

Cheers.


Darkydog,

I think this is a great question and is an area most people ignore. I spend more time analysing races than I do horses. I think picking the right race is where a lot of people get it wrong. Just like you can look at horse form you can classify races based on hundreds of factors.

I like to approach the race from lots of angles. I'll list a few of them here but this is only a subset of them.

Firstly, I will look at the prize money on offer vs the runners who have run above, below or at that prize money. I also break this down into how they performed to give an overall rating on the spread of runners who are likely to win.

I also like to look at the prepost odds spread to see how the race will likely be bet as knowing this lets you determine if the race is worthwhile.

I will look at the actual odds spread just before the race as a final indicator that the race should be bet or not.

I'll also do spreads based on ratings and form to determine the competitive nature of the races. I currently analyse a race with 15 factors which are broken up into at least 3 different spread ranges each and compare the spread on all of them.

What I am trying to do is find the shape of the spreads which are more likely to give a consistent result. For instance in the final odds I will be looking at the odds in ranges of < $3, 3-5, 5-10, 10-20, 20-30, 30-50, 50-100, 100+ (and a few other combinations). I am then looking back to see how these performed when there were 1 under $3, 4 in 5-10 and 1 above 50 for instance. Combining this with the other spreads I find there are some very interesting results which others may want to investigate for themselves.

That helps me throw out the races which are likely to produce inconsistent results. This is the key to winning long term. Find and eliminate losing races.

I then have ratings on all races going back for a few years and I'll have a defined rating for each horse based on their past 5 races. The rating is based on the competitive nature of each of those races. I then adjust that to a rating for this race depending on where the horse was positioned in that race. I always use lengths beaten and anything within 5 lengths is acceptable form. 5 Lengths can be gained and lost per race easily enough. And you could probably guess I will be looking at the spread of these ratings too.

Pretty much every factor I can record is compared pre race to a set of spreads for that factor and I eliminate any spreads which have shown to be inconsistent (For example all horses priced under $20 is one I would throw out).

The last thing I do for a race is chart the chance of the horse and adjust for a risk factor up and down based on a standard deviation of similar horses form changes. I am classifying horses based on the last 5 races based on lengths and position and days off. This gives me a good bell curve of expected changes in form. I then have the computer compare these to each other and define a high, expected and low chance of winning. I then know how many of the horses actually have a real chance in the race.

At the end of this I record everything down, wait for the race and decide if there is a bet or lay within the race. I am always on multiple runners either dutching a few to win or laying a few to lose (depending on what is less bets). Bets only go on when I have an edge in the odds compared to the calculated chances of losing the race based on the spreads for the race. So if it calculates I will lose 15% of the time and I can dutch the chances identified for a 25% profit then I will betting into that race. On the other hand if it finds that I can only get 10% I will stay out of the race.

That is how I find acceptable races to bet into (and a bit more on how I compare chances too). All races are fair game if they are consistent in their results and the right odds are on offer to make a profit.
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  #5  
Old 15th April 2019, 06:22 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
I am sure there are many questions people would like to ask and i know i appreciate your offer to answer questions.

I have read many of your post and been given advice in the past, i remember the days when you were the person asking questions from those on the forum so is great to see how you have grown over the years.

I will have a bit of a think before i ask.


Yeah I have come a long way since starting. I remember betting less than $1 in the early days and making lots of mistakes. I had to learn from the past greats on the forum by reading all their posts and reading between the lines. I wish I could ask them a lot more questions on how they did certain things.
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  #6  
Old 15th April 2019, 07:48 AM
piratebird piratebird is offline
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Thanks for this post UB. My question is "how much credence do you put in the market for any given race and what actual market do you follow ?" When looking at different markets on the betting sites they are sometimes miles apart so what market stacks up best?. Also, do you have a high end price limit?.

Thanks again.
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  #7  
Old 15th April 2019, 09:33 AM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Thank you UselessBettor,

I can see where your coming from.

Cheers.
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  #8  
Old 15th April 2019, 12:23 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by piratebird
Thanks for this post UB. My question is "how much credence do you put in the market for any given race and what actual market do you follow ?" When looking at different markets on the betting sites they are sometimes miles apart so what market stacks up best?. Also, do you have a high end price limit?.
Thanks again.


Market prices are extremely important and should be involved in any decision. I look at the final prices in two ways.

Firstly I look at it as a confirmation that my assessment is correct. If I have something rated at $5 and the market has it at $100 then why is there a big difference. Similar when its the other way around. I can be off by a few percentage points (maybe 10%). For example a 10% difference between a 20% chance and a 10% chance is the price of $10 vs $5. This is ok as its close enough, but a $5 chance (20%) to a $20 (5%) is too much. I like a difference within 10%.

Secondly I need value in the market for my suggestions so I need final prices to get a rough guide to that value. I use betfair so I can get fixed pice or I can go to betfair SP when required. It will depend on the situation but I use a lot of betfair SP as I put on a lot of money.

As far as which markets stack up best think of it this way. Bookies ban winning punters so there markets are useless. Tote markets are good for early indications as professionals do bet into these markets but the take out isn't going to help you. Most professionals I know are heavily betting on betfair. For this reason the final odds on betfair are the best indicator BUT they are not formed in most Australian markets till 30 seconds to jump time.

I have a number of bookies fixed prices, tote prices and betfair prices stored in my database and by far Betfair prices are the best indicator of a horses chances based on my research. The odds there are higher as well in most cases (especially long shots which is where a lot of value can be found on betfair).

I am not really looking at odds like you would think. I don't take one horse in a race so I am looking at a combination of horses which one of them should win. So in regards to price limits I do not have a set limit but combined I will have a set percentage I am looking at making on the race and that varies depending on the race spreads as per the last post.

I hope that makes sense. if not ask again and I'll try to elaborate.
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  #9  
Old 15th April 2019, 12:34 PM
piratebird piratebird is offline
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Thanks for that info UB. I know that Betfair is best for the longer prices and I'm interested to hear that you use their markets for shorter prices as well. I'm not a big bettor but I do keep an eye on the Betfair markets and then I take off the commission and most times the "bookies" are a few cents better. That suits my way of betting but I can understand that it would not suit you as much for reasons that you have outlined. Very informative reply and I thank you very much.
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  #10  
Old 15th April 2019, 12:43 PM
peter m peter m is offline
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Thanks for the generous offer UselessBettor. Good to see someone trying to help the other forumites.


My question is a two part one.


Was talking to someone the other week, quite a knowledgeable chap who has written a couple of punting books. He said that, due to the introduction of the various Benchmark ratings races it was pretty hard to work out an accurate Class/Weight/ rating for the various classes as they are too close together , compressed and overlap too much.

What is your opinion on this?

The second part of my question is. Is it possible to work out your own Weight/Class ratings by looking at past results? For example, a horse wins a 0-90 class then enters a Class 6. Normally the horse would be given an extra 2 - 2.5 kg for the win. If the horse is only given, for example a 1kg weight rise this, in theory, would mean that the Class 6 is 1 - 1.5k harder race than the 0-90 Class.

Ok, this is just a rough example, but could you work out your own Weight/Class ratings using this method, and due to the addition of the Benchmark rating classes, is it worth it?

I am looking at something which goes along with what other knowledgeable gents on here have stated, that it's all in the price. Looking at something which starts with the price and works back from there, using CP's database to work out different things.

Just curious about the Class/Weight thing.

Once again, thanks for your kind offer. Peter
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