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  #11  
Old 7th August 2019, 11:50 AM
Mike367 Mike367 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Martingale systems only work on very high strike rate systems.

Try it on a place system instead that is going about 70%+ and is at least level stakes profit.


Hey UB,

I've used the Martingale system on and off for quite a few years. While it shows promise and the dollar signs shine brightly, and it actually works! It's only for a short period of time. The trick is to get out at the right time, not something I can do.

I think that if I found a system like the one you describe I'd be able retire.

Ohh and I've found the much vaunted "Retirement Plan" to be......A let down also.

Lotto ticket????
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  #12  
Old 7th August 2019, 03:24 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Question

As were the systems from the same place.

See thread "System 6"
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  #13  
Old 8th August 2019, 11:54 AM
entropy entropy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike367
Hey UB,

I've used the Martingale system on and off for quite a few years. While it shows promise and the dollar signs shine brightly, and it actually works! It's only for a short period of time. The trick is to get out at the right time, not something I can do.

I think that if I found a system like the one you describe I'd be able retire.

Ohh and I've found the much vaunted "Retirement Plan" to be......A let down also.

Lotto ticket????


The marketfeeder bot forum has an enormous number of attempts at various plans and systems, martingales, renegades, retirements etc etc.
There success has forced up the price of tropical islands!

Systems that rely on the belief that past results cause future results are problematic, at best we can hope for some association not causation.

Methods that want you to increase a bet size solely because a previous bet lost are likely to be laughed at in any other situation: I lost my last poker hand with a pair of kings so now I will increase my bet with a pair of two's?

UB mentioned the need for a high strike rate. At least a high strike rate could keep you in the game longer since the bane of systems, LLS (longest losing sequence), is lessened. A consistent strike rate above 50% puts you in the LWS (longest winning sequence) zone.
Now the key will be to get the average dividend up to get positive roi.
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  #14  
Old 8th August 2019, 09:26 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Smile

Too true.
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  #15  
Old 8th August 2019, 09:40 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike367
Hey UB,

I've used the Martingale system on and off for quite a few years. While it shows promise and the dollar signs shine brightly, and it actually works! It's only for a short period of time. The trick is to get out at the right time, not something I can do.

I think that if I found a system like the one you describe I'd be able retire.

Ohh and I've found the much vaunted "Retirement Plan" to be......A let down also.

Lotto ticket????


I don't endorse martingale systems, but I did run a martingale system on here with harness bets live a while ago (years ago now) and it showed a good profit. It would still work and I think I had the rules in the beginning of the thread so you could go back and back test it manually from the point I left it till now. I suspect it would have continued to profit.

I have found many systems which work brilliantly with them but you are talking small stakes only to allow the required increases. I was also looking at systems with a 85% strike rate with a small level stakes loss (0%-5%).

The main reason I don't use them is its not worth my time. You can't be starting martingale systems with large bets and therefore to me they are useless. Try starting a martingale system with $5000 and see how many times you can double it without a heart attack after a few losses.

There are too many other level stakes profit systems out there to worry about introducing the extra risks of a martingale system unless you are rapidly trying to build a bankroll in a short amount of time.
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  #16  
Old 8th August 2019, 09:56 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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To save you looking:

http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/sho...4&postcount=158

that was the last post with results:

The sequence of bet results was:

Quote:
So far 120 winners, 24 seconds, 8 Thirds, 5 Unplaced from 156 selections.

Current Sequence: 11111112111111111111112111111211291111121111112331 11111111111211321111131111111111112141211111221391 11911122112112322111111211112121119211312111111121
1111112


The rules were:

Quote:
Basically back selections in Harness using betfair where the win price is less then or equal to $1.50 and use a fibonaci staking plan. 1 2 3 5 8 13 22 35 57 92. Increase the level after a loss. Go back to 1 if in profit for the sequence. If a win then stay on the same level.


Seemed to be working. I obviously couldn't be bothered to continue following it as it was a martingale (fibonaci) system and I didn't need to but this shows how it worked.
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  #17  
Old 8th August 2019, 10:02 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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2019 results using those rules:

736 wins from 956 selections
Level stakes LOSS after 5% commission of -2.07 units. So lets call it break even.

So for those how don't think its possible I believe this system would work with a martingale system.

Disclaimer : I don't bet this and won't be betting it. If I did I wouldn't post it.
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