Dr Pangloss' Bookies' Benevolence Snake Oil

[jfc]

While I'm far from finished dealing with the mischief on the Favourite Long Shot Bias thread, Dr Pangloss' effort deserves a separate discussion.


http://www.vicbet.com/articles/default.cfm?id=10

How can anyone be suckered by the deliberately misleading statistics in the so called analysis of Top Fluctuations. If TF was genuinely better then they would have provided a proper analysis similar to mine below. Instead their meaningless figures are a sure bet that they are hiding something.

From my earlier sample here are the 6,650 Saturday races.

The premium is for Best of Tab Limited and uniTAB versus SP. Actual winners only.

So for example that average return on a 10/1 shot ~would be $13.88 (26.2% better than $11)

Obviously DiviPlus would be even better.

I do actually realise that SP is NOT TF, but if you can't draw proper inferences from this, you have big problems.


<pre>
SP Tote
Odds Premium
<1 5.0%
1+ 5.0%
2+ 7.5%
3+ 6.7%
4+ 9.1%
5+ 13.2%
10+ 26.2%
15+ 41.7%
20+ 49.8%
30+ 43.1%
40+ 48.7%
50+ 25.3%


Note: x+ means x and above until next Odd range start.
</pre>

[Buddy Trivalve]

I ventured to my local pharmaceuticals store today to stock up on some medicinal snake oil. The proprietor said they had run out of the top shelf stuff but they still had a supply of "JFC Stats Oil" out the back. Although it was past its use-by date, I still wanted some. I was desperate.

"How much is it?", I inquired.

"Six dollars a bottle", he replied. "Or two bottles for six dollars or six bottles for two dollars", he added, with a knowing grin.

"Just give me one bottle, thanks", I said. "I'm happy with the figures I know."
:smile:

[Neil]

It's well known that longshots are generally better odds on the tote, provided you don't bet too much on them, in which case you won't get the odds you think you will.

Our stats for Melbourne and Sydney metropolitan Saturday racing shows that bookmaker top fluctuation for horses starting at $5.50 or shorter over the long term is substantially better than the tote - admittedly we are using just one tote price.

However more than one third of the time that will be the top tote price. Where a horse has been plunged you will see that the tote bettor often ends up getting below the plunged bookmaker starting price. The TF bettor does substantially better.

Personally I have no intention of losing money by backing well supported tote horses in tote markets of 120%, where I cannot control the minimum odds I receive, compared to bookmaker TF markets which are often below 110% in Sydney on a Saturday.

See:
http://www.propun.com.au/bookmakers_online_gambling_index.html

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Neil on 2003-07-28 10:13 ]</font>

[jfc]

Neil,

I would like something approaching the full true story about the crucial problem of finding top value to come out.

Your figures day by day don't prove much. Do you have summary figures for (say) years available?

I will also present additional figures, which will not only contradict the VicBet figures further, but I expect your claims will also need to be modulated.

[Neil]

Here are last Saturday's results comparing SuperTab with TF for horses with a starting price of $5.50 or shorter:

Moonee Valley:

Topzoff
Starting price:$2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote: $2.20

Marwina Lass
Starting price:$4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote: $3.30

Storm Attack
Starting price:$3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote: $2.90

Delvecchio
Starting price:$5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote: $4.80

Randwick:
Comforts
Starting price:$4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote: $3.80

Go Ziggy
Starting price:$4.40
Top fluctuation:$4.60
SuperTab tote: $4.30

Patezza
Starting price:$1.90
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote: $1.90

Results for over two years have now been updated on a weekly basis. We have not kept a running total of the difference between tote/bookmaker.

Anyone who has been following these updates over a period of time will know where the best odds are for horses starting around $5.50 in Melbourne/Sydney on a Saturday.

A race full of unraced 2YOs is of course generally another matter. The tote still bets to 120% but the bookies, in order to try and avoid insider knowledge hitting them badly in that type of race, set understandably high % markets.

They CAN LOSE betting on a race.

All the tote does is lower the price everyone gets if more money comes for a horse so that the tote MUST WIN on the race.

[crash]

Favorites attract the money and in doing so force down the TF as demonstrated by Neil, far more so than say, 3RD/4TH favorites which often ease.It's easy to work out that money attracted to favorites on the tote is almost always an underlay bet.When I back a favotite I do so with my phone bookmaker[they have their value] and anything ealse with Vic. Tab or sportingbet.
As profit is the goal, underlay betting on the tote for favorites, always ends in a loss,loss situation.Most winners are easers or at least steady anyway.

Thought you comments about "Forum demographics" in your other Forum Kfc was a bit harsh. What are you doing here then, slumming it?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-07-28 17:47 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-07-28 18:03 ]</font>

[Chrome Prince]

On 2003-07-28 17:44, crash wrote:
It's easy to work out that money attracted to favorites is almost always an underlay bet.

Not so.
It depends on the actual chances of the horse.
If horse X has true odds of even money for the win but is crunched from $3.00 into $2.40 on the tote, you are still getting value in my book.


As profit is the goal, underlay betting will end in a loss,loss situation.

Agreed.

Most winners are easers or at least steady anyway.


I find no evidence to support this.
The vast majority of winners in the less than $10 range are usually well supported and many cases of 9/1 into 6/1 etc.

And less than $5.00 are 7/2 into 5/2 as an example.

You will find value in the drifters for sure, but there are more winners that firm in the market.

[crash]

I think only the Gods can workout "true" odds of even money Chrome Prince, without hindsight, as there are just too many variables.You can do it spinning a penny but on a horse race? Think about it.

At your quoted prices, that you would call a good price or overlay, you would need to win 50% of your races just to breath! Any worse and you would be belly up.Your choices would be favorites and they win approx. one in four races.You would have to be able to pick half of them to stay alive. To me thats scary stuff.

There are plenty of races being won by horses between $4 and $7 that are just as easy to spot[often easier] and have as much genuine [not stats] chance of winning a race as your example. Now THEY are overlays! If I can't spot one or two in a race,or I spot more than two, I leave the race alone.Personel judgement [as well as your picks] must also be priced and I know nobody that could put even money on themselves as a tipster.Personaly, I like a bit of leeway on both.Everyone to his own though.Some punters LIKE scaring themselves to death!

My outs don't seem to be any worse than anything I've seen here or from punters I know personaly.As to my point about winners being easers or steady, I'm no stats expert but have read that statement by those that are, both here and in some fine publications that I read.I might be wrong, but someone is sure to turn up here that knows the score. I'd bet on it.What odds?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-07-29 07:09 ]</font>

[kenchar]

From my own observations,the main reason nags firm dramaticaly on the tote is when some goose from a radio station or sky say that it is being crunched on course,then all the sheep follow on the tote.Most of the sheep are in pubs and clubs and full of turps which is a real sensible way to bet??????? Midweek a lot of these courses where a nag is crunched there is only 2 or 3 bookies and 2 or 3 hundred bet will crunch a nag.Finally if you look at real stats only about 20% of these crunchers win,then of course the announcer says see the money is always right.The majority of my winners are horses that blow in the market.In fact I have based a system around blowers which is quite succesfull thank you.

[jfc]

Given this is supposed to be under the SmartGambler umbrella I am dismayed at most of the responses here.

Apart from you straying well off the topic, how is it that none of you appear to have spotted the glaring giveaway early on in the article in question?

Crash, have you lost the plot? You correctly note that backing favourites on the tote is not very bright, but why do you overlook the massive premium available at $5+. And if you find my mild observation about demographics offensive, try to avert your eyes when I get really riled.


Onto a change of pace.

Kenchar, I concur entirely with your succint synopsis. In most parimutuel games following the crowd is a tremendous wealth hazard.

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Crash,
Perhaps we just have opposing views on this issue.
If a favourite is showing $2.50 on the tote and I rate it as an even money favourite, then I am getting 25% overlay without panicking (and it's quite easy to rate even money without the gods :wink:).
And it is a great deal better than a 5% overlay on a $5.00 shot.
Yes you need a higher than 50% strike rate, but you'll find that a with a few filters and effective ratings, this is acheivable without heart in the mouth stuff.
Believe it or not, I get overlays place betting favourites applying strong filters.

[crash]

JFK,

My "...straying off the topic"? Apart from my right to meander wherever I will and your right to impress with your [growing] Theasarus skills,why do you need three current threads on essentialy the same topic running in this forum? Prominence? Do you ever get time to stick your head in a Form Guide, between this,your Theasarus and your Stats. research? What say tho?

Do you really have to repeat your initial innuendo, about everybody's intelligence compared to your's [your initial swipe about "Forum demographics"], by a repeat performance with a new one about..."all of us supposed to being under the Smart Gambler umbrella"? Obviously, not everybody heard you the first time, ay[?]
If you want to stand on the top of a hill and yell out how clever you are, ...that's ok by me.

No, I dont think I've..."lost the plot" or "...overlooked anything".

Someone once wrote: "The minds capacity to play with the truth [Stats?] is an astonishing thing.There is always a way to tamper with the evidence".





<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-07-30 08:18 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-07-30 08:28 ]</font>

[crash]

Chrome Prince,

The difference is only betting style.I have few but large,for me anyway,bets on Saterday with [mostly] a bookie, except the fun stuff [a comp. with the handbrake...she is winning] for min. bets with Vic.Tab.

I'm not a good enough Formster,nor do I have the courage to try and make anything on very short priced favorites, regardless of filters. If they win ok you win somthing, but not much considering the risk. I prefere the loosing run leeway of better priced winners.

The place overlay on very short Favorites is certainly no myth.Often the place price is 50%+ of winning price.There is a system based on that but requires a LOT of bets placed seconds before the jump.I tried it once but nearly went nuts with the effort and concentration involved!
I keep away from place bets and as for exotics, the Tab. takeout is over the top.
But back to beting style. All the diversity here, makes the challenge of the punt so interesting!

[Mark]

Hey Crash

Another saying is "lies, damn lies, and statistics"

:smile:

[jfc]

Crash,

my original observation about demographics was clearly a reminder to La Mer that we should be talking about the situation for retail punters here, rather than his Mr Big Enough associates. As most here are retail punters or wannabes that's hardly an insult.

Now, I started this thread for a distinct reason. For comment about what I believe to be outrageous propaganda by Victorian Bookmakers. This is distinct from the Favourite/Long Shot bias anachronism.

Why no one else seems to be alarmed by the VicBet travesty dismays me.

In the second paragraph they mention 1,300 meetings. That ~10 years' worth of data.

Lots of things have changed. There were still some big firmers back in the early 90's. But that was well before TF was regularly available. With TF along with universal Sky, Internet and phones things are different and TF offers a very small premium over SP.

Where to find top value should always be at the forefront of punters' thoughts, yet very few here seem to have any independent ideas on the subject.

[becareful]

Or maybe they do care but just couldn't be bothered replying to someone who apparantly has very little tolerance for other peoples views????

For what its worth I agree that Best Tote will ON AVERAGE be better than TF for anything except fairly short favourites. For favourites the difference is fairly marginal (although I think you will find the advantage on TF is bigger for major metro meetings) so the betting decision will probably come down to other factors (eg. size of bet, when you want to place the bet, etc). Until recently Divi+ (or the Sportingbet equivalent) was not available on all races but now that it is I would agree that it is generally the best option for the AVERAGE punter who just wants to put a bet on without too much hastle. Of course for those willing to spend a bit more time then you can often improve on this for shorter runners by comparing Divi+ approximates with SP and with Betfair.