While I'm far from finished dealing with the mischief on the Favourite Long Shot Bias thread, Dr Pangloss' effort deserves a separate discussion.


http://www.vicbet.com/articles/default.cfm?id=10

How can anyone be suckered by the deliberately misleading statistics in the so called analysis of Top Fluctuations. If TF was genuinely better then they would have provided a proper analysis similar to mine below. Instead their meaningless figures are a sure bet that they are hiding something.

From my earlier sample here are the 6,650 Saturday races.

The premium is for Best of Tab Limited and uniTAB versus SP. Actual winners only.

So for example that average return on a 10/1 shot ~would be $13.88 (26.2% better than $11)

Obviously DiviPlus would be even better.

I do actually realise that SP is NOT TF, but if you can't draw proper inferences from this, you have big problems.

 SP   Tote

Odds Premium

 <1   5.0%

 1+   5.0%

 2+   7.5%

 3+   6.7%

 4+   9.1%

 5+  13.2%

10+  26.2%

15+  41.7%

20+  49.8%

30+  43.1%

40+  48.7%

50+  25.3%





Note: x+ means x and above until next Odd range start.