Question for the experts

[iamcool]

Hey all,
When deciding amounst top contenders in a race as decided by ratings, say i've narrowed it down to top four chances (or so i think) would factors such as previous track, track and distance and track condition in relation to form be a major determining factor in ranking one selection above all others? If so how heavily should i weight these factors?

For example,
One of my four selections has previous track and distance ability (win or place) but also demonstrates form in relation to the prevailing track conditions. Therefore assuming all other criteria are met, how accurate would my selection be if i used this criteria for determining the final selection?Any stats available

I apoligize in advance if this seems a little simple to y'all but as a learner who has yet to spend large amounts of money on a system tester and with limited knowledge to this point i am reliant on the experience otf others.

Thanks
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[Privateer]

Probably the guy to help you out but remember your comment.... "you're a complete dick privateer"

Good luck.

Dick

[iamcool]

Hello Privateer,

As i remember you were giving Benny an unmerciful time. I was merely sticking up for the poor fella'.

Apologies if you are still mad, feel free to call me a dick anytime.

Sincerely,
iamcool
asst mngr woolies frozen food section

[iamcool]

Here is an extension to my previously oversubscribed question that maybe privateer would, if not still cranky, be able to answer.

Last start win, say within 2/3 weeks, in a similar class with a worse track condition rating. e.g last start win on a heavy track, today running on dead/slow in similar company. All other factors constant.

Anybody?

Make any sense or not
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[KennyVictor]

Last start win, say within 2/3 weeks, in a similar class with a worse track condition rating. e.g last start win on a heavy track, today running on dead/slow in similar company. All other factors constant.

Make any sense or not
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Don't think so. Some horses are better on heavy tracks than dead or slow ones. This would mean they are now running at a disadvantage to their previous race.

KV

[iamcool]

Thanks KV

I was just wondering if the ability to handle slippery underfoot conditions could be transfered back up the ratings (to slow) in the punters favour. I suppose if it was that easy everyone would be onto it by now!

The dartboard system is looking better everyday with Winter making a mess of the track conditions

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[Privateer]

Rule #1. NEVER, EVER, EVER risk your money by betting on a rain affected track. Nope, I don't care even if it is Rough Habit in a one horse race on reclaimed swamp land in the middle of a monsoon. "Do not bet when track is wet"

[davez]

Rule #1. NEVER, EVER, EVER risk your money by betting on a rain affected track. Nope, I don't care even if it is Rough Habit in a one horse race on reclaimed swamp land in the middle of a monsoon. "Do not bet when track is wet"


apologies in advance, but you are entirely, absolutely WRONG.

the reason why you ask? well the thing is that even when the track is a bog there is still a 1st, 2nd & 3rd place getter, & the best part is they all pay a dividend of one sort or another, strange i know but true!

love a wet track

[La Mer]

apologies in advance, but you are entirely, absolutely WRONG.

the reason why you ask? well the thing is that even when the track is a bog there is still a 1st, 2nd & 3rd place getter, & the best part is they all pay a dividend of one sort or another, strange i know but true! love a wet track

Agree Davez, it's all a matter of finding the right races and doing the form in a manner that suits the prevailing track conditions - love those wet tracks because it makes it that much easier to find a winner.

[goldmember]

La Mer, i agree 100%, if you look at the right races, because the wet usually eliminates a lot of no hopers and you can find a few more winners that way, but i still wouldnt back anything too short[under $1.60], the same way i wouldnt back anything under $1.40 on a good track.

[La Mer]

La Mer, i agree 100%, if you look at the right races, because the wet usually eliminates a lot of no hopers and you can find a few more winners that way, but i still wouldnt back anything too short[under $1.60], the same way i wouldnt back anything under $1.40 on a good track.

I agree Goldmember, value is paramount be the track conditions wet or dry.

I bet in three races only yesterday, all at MONEY Valley. for two collects.

In the Steeple race 3, I had the winner Corrupted 2nd rated @ $5, taking $5 @ best fluctuation. In race 4, I gave the winner Leroy The Boy some chance but was looking for a shade better odds, backing the favourite Aquiline, who while racing well, it finding it hard to win, while in race 6, I had my best collect with Korcula, who I rated on top as a 11/4 chance, taking $7.50 odds at better than best flucuation.

Think that some punters have a mindset against wet tracks, finding it hard to win which in many cases is a self fulfilling prophecy, therefore IMHO they've lost well before they even commence the battle.

[Privateer]

Fair enough. I'm not asking you guys to agree with me I was simply offering my professional opinion based on extensive statistical analysis of race results.

Still, if you're a $10 e/w bettor, go for it and have some fun.

Glad you backed a steeple winner La Mer. You know my views on rain affected tracks. You'd black out if you knew my thoughts on betting on jumpers.

iamcool - your choice mate.

[La Mer]

Fair enough. I'm not asking you guys to agree with me I was simply offering my professional opinion based on extensive statistical analysis of race results. Still, if you're a $10 e/w bettor, go for it and have some fun.
Glad you backed a steeple winner La Mer. You know my views on rain affected tracks. You'd black out if you knew my thoughts on betting on jumpers.
iamcool - your choice mate.

Rest assured that I'm more than just a $10 e/w bettor.

As you stated, "your choice mate" - one person's poison it another's tonic.

It's interesting that you indicate that you do not think too much of betting on jumpers. Interesting because I have a mate who has similar thoughts to yourself and his perception is that you can't win backing jumpers. But when I pointed out to him, providing the necessary evidence, that favourites in jumping races have a far better record of success than any other race type/class, he still couldn't be convinced. Fine by me, it's his choice.

[Privateer]

There is another thing we differ on. favourites. The quickest way to lose money is by backing favourites. I'd never support anything under $4 in any case.

Still, I've been making a successful living from punting using my own statistical based method for 3 years now so I must be doing something right.

I think it is hard enough to find a winner in flat events let alone finding a winner that has to negotiate 20 fences. Do you know the differences in probability between a racehorse falling in a flat race in comparison to a jumps race? I do.

I like watching jumps races, in fact earlier this year I attended an all jumps meeting at Fontwell Park in the UK and yes, bet on all the races! I had a great day out but draw the line on jumpers when it comes to serious betting.

Good luck.

Sorry...the comment "your choice mate" is for the originator of this thread "iamcool" I meant that it is now his decision to whether or not to take on board any comment I have made.

[iamcool]

That's me - It's my choice

Thanks Privateer and Le Mer for your differing viewpoints, both appeal to me.
The reason i was asking for contributions was to try and find a way to bet on heavy/rain affected tracks given that wet track racing is prevalent at the moment. As Le Mer suggests the fact that wet tracks eliminate many pretenders is an interesting point and one that i will follow at a distance to see if it works for me. If not, i will heed your advice Privateer.

It just seems that something has to win so how would you go about assessing the race given the conditions etc..

I will take your advice on board with gratitude.

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