any golfers here ???

[syllabus23]

Why do I shoot 40 stableford points one day and 29 the next??? Probably for the same reason that a good horse bolts in today and finishes down the track at its next start.

The answer to that is "god knows"

Over the past couple of years I have seen dozens of mechanical systems in this forum,all basically the same.Different combinations of the same information perhaps,but really the same old formula worked and re-worked.

Some of them get results some of the time,but none are consistent money makers.

I cant understand my own form on the golf course and I dont have a jockey,barrier draw,,trainer,,etc etc ad infinitum,,,so my chances of predicting what a horse might do at some remote racetrack are pretty slim.

I like punting and make a reasonable fist of it.How ???? Just by following the money trail,,,,it's there,,it can be elusive,but it's there.To win requires patience and experience....Ok ok I'm getting there,,,,,next paragraph......

I think that there is a logical pattern in betting sequences,,they can be difficult to spot,but there is a rhythm to it all..A computer programmer who can capture this rhythm and link it to a TAB race betting fluctuation page will have the key to the vault.In my heart I know it can be done,in reality I dont have the ability to attempt it.

Maybe someone out there has gone down this path.He/she sure as hell isn't going to tell us.

[beton]

Tiger Woods said that when you go to the golf course make sure you left your emotions back at the hotel under the pillow. No different with punting. Beton

[KennyVictor]

I think that there is a logical pattern in betting sequences,,they can be difficult to spot,but there is a rhythm to it all..A computer programmer who can capture this rhythm and link it to a TAB race betting fluctuation page will have the key to the vault.In my heart I know it can be done,in reality I dont have the ability to attempt it.


You seem to have half the key to a fortune if you can see a pattern and I have the other half (I can write programs). I've been watching prices pretty closely for only a couple of months but I can't say I've found any definite pattern to speak of. Maybe I'm just not suited to the rhythm method.

KV

[syllabus23]

KV my old pre-computer brain keeps telling me that a series of transposed and interlocking graphs is the way to go.Its the shadow of an idea,but it's been niggling away at me for ages.

The magnitude of doing it the old pen and ink way just seems to be too great,and as I said my lack of computer skills prevents me from finding a quick way around the problem.

[Guitar Jim]

You hit the button right on the head with the last sentence of your first post Syllabus23.

If someone has a "genuine, permanent" winning method they sure as heck would NEVER publish it, NEVER ask money for it and NEVER tell anyone about it.

[KennyVictor]

KV my old pre-computer brain keeps telling me that a series of transposed and interlocking graphs is the way to go.Its the shadow of an idea,but it's been niggling away at me for ages.

The magnitude of doing it the old pen and ink way just seems to be too great,and as I said my lack of computer skills prevents me from finding a quick way around the problem.

Hi Syllabus,
I'm currently trying to find a way to log the change of prices minute by minute as a race approaches so that I can sort of replay them and look for patterns. Early stages yet.
If you want to run some ideas past me you can feel free to do so at:
kennyvictor_1047 at hotmail dot com

If you don't feel that way inclined that's all right too. :-)

KV

[Guitar Jim]

It's all been done before, over and over and over again............ statistical computer analysis of price fluctuations won't enable anyone to make permanent profits from betting on horses.

[KennyVictor]

........and NEVER tell anyone about it.


It's all been done before, over and over and over again............ statistical computer analysis of price fluctuations won't enable anyone to make permanent profits from betting on horses.


Maybe someone has and they just haven't told you about it. :-)

[crash]

Kenny wrote:
"Maybe someone has and they just haven't told you about it". :-)

Yep, he's the same guy who worked out how to win at tattslotto using a computer. He won't tell us that secret either, but apparently it was a lot easier than his 'winning at the races using a computer method' 8-)

You can only calculate know facts with any mechanical method of selecting winners and there are just a huge heap that aren't known. No-one can ever make a profit by any win selection method [mechanical or not] whether they use their head or a computer, The punter who can consistently recognize a false favorite and take the overs on offer in those races will though.

[TWOBETS]

"No-one can ever make a profit by any win selection method [mechanical or not] whether they use their head or a computer, "

Actually Sir Crash you are dead wrong!!! Now I can't prove zilch so I realize I'm open to mass ridicule, but I felt I had to speak up as you keep pouring cold water on these systems searchers whose task is already painfully hard.

I have well over two years controlled profits thanks to a simple mechanical system, and whats more I ghost run two other very sucessfull systems (though not as reliable I'll admit) just in case some bastardo screws my current one up.

System set ups are mega complex and don't grow on trees, but please don't kill the hope we all live on!

[crash]

Hi 2 bets,

The quote you should have been concentrating on was this one....
Crash wrote:
"The punter who can consistently recognize a false favorite and take the overs on offer in those races will though". [make money].

I had one system that showed an amazing 42% POT over 2 1/2 yrs. and I thought I had finally hit the jackpot. It was logical, had the right filters and no-one else had ever thought of it and I never told a soul. My bets per selection started at $10 and where up to $300 and I was still winning [I was rolling in it]. Then it went belly up after a sustained run of outs that had me gob-smacked. I still watch it but it has never recovered. It was all shear bloody chance. Tilt.

Yes, I know a few punters who play the small percentages with large sums of capital behind them with what possibly could be described as a mechanical system, but a lot of bets are involved and they have mathematical brains way beyond the average ability and a very in-depth knowledge of racing, percentages [odds] and the laws of probability. That isn't us though :-)

I'm not anti-system [I have a couple of hundred I've tried, many my own] and I'm following a couple now with small change [you never know], but my real money follows reason nowadays. It just makes me a bit sad to see so many hopefuls looking for golden gooses and wasting years ignoring where the winning money really is: VALUE and spending their time doing everything but leaning how to truly spot it and never betting on anything else. Consistent edge is everything and the only way to win at this caper. It's simple maths, you must have better odds than the house or the house wins in the long run. That's not 'cold water', it's an opportunity.

If you want to know how to spot false favorites, he's a hint: Have look at some of the winners at Sydney last Saturday and note them down to see if they run favorite next start. Melb. too. Money for nothing.

[BJ]

Crash: Seems to me you are knocking everything mechanical saying that you cannot beat the house. Yet in the same paragraph you say if you find overs that you can...

My question to you is what method do you use to find these overs? Do you look for the same things, or do you just randomly point to a horse and say that it is overs?

My guess is that you have a way that you are comfortable with and use the same method to find every over that you punt on.

Don't knock the mechanical system if you are doing it yourself.

[KennyVictor]

Kenny wrote:
"Maybe someone has and they just haven't told you about it". :-)

Yep, he's the same guy who worked out how to win at tattslotto using a computer. He won't tell us that secret either, but apparently it was a lot easier than his 'winning at the races using a computer method' 8-)

You can only calculate know facts with any mechanical method of selecting winners and there are just a huge heap that aren't known. No-one can ever make a profit by any win selection method [mechanical or not] whether they use their head or a computer, The punter who can consistently recognize a false favorite and take the overs on offer in those races will though.

Hi Crash,
You speak with the authority of a man who is successful in what he does. I have no doubt your method works. Unfortunately you've developed a blinkered view of the subject and now seem unable to understand that anyone elses approach can work too. You seem to think that anyone who doesn't use the false favorites approach is a fool and Punter57 thinks the only way to go is backing the long shots which are overs. I'm sure you both do well with your own method but telling others they can't win because you don't or can't understand their methodology makes you a fool yourself.
Now I know sweet FA about racing but I'm a good programmer, love mathmatical puzzles and have a lot of time on my hands. Racing is custom built for me, hobbywise. I started programming racing stuff about 18 months ago and I'm quite comfortable with the consistent profit margin I'm enjoying thank you, from essentially mechanical systems. But I'll tell you what, I'm quite happy to look at the false favorites method too. In fact I'll be thinking about that when I go out to mow the grass in a minute, wondering how I can use it to enhance my computerised system. My mind is open.

Looking back over your quote above, yes, there is a computer based method of winning money from lotto. Unfortunately I haven't been game to use it as it attracts a long gaol term if you're caught. :-)

An finally, please don't put s..t on punters even if you're (mistakenly or not) sure their method can't work. It doesn't worry me because I know mine does but you might scare them off the game forever. You should encourage them, someone's got to put money into the pool for the rest of us to win. :-)

KV

[crash]

You obviously didn't read all of my thread BJ : "I'm not anti-system [I have a couple of hundred I've tried, many my own] and I'm following a couple now with small change [you never know]," I'll stick to that thank you and my other point that the 'real' [long term] profit in racing lies in spotting overs.

Apart from that, my opinion is my own and not yours to dictate as to how to express my opinions on racing. Try playing the ball and not the man maybe and I might have answered your question. You added nothing to the discussion at all except a little bitch session and that's all a bit sad.

[crash]

Kenny,
For someone who states :Now I know sweet FA about racing' [your words not mine], you seem dead certain I'm wrong and like to play the man too and not the ball. My opinion for what I think works and what doesn't is just that, my opinion. Do you need me to say that every time I express my opinion ?

[KennyVictor]

Whatever.

[BJ]

You obviously didn't read all of my thread BJ : "I'm not anti-system [I have a couple of hundred I've tried, many my own] and I'm following a couple now with small change [you never know]," I'll stick to that thank you and my other point that the 'real' [long term] profit in racing lies in spotting overs.

Apart from that, my opinion is my own and not yours to dictate as to how to express my opinions on racing. Try playing the ball and not the man maybe and I might have answered your question. You added nothing to the discussion at all except a little bitch session and that's all a bit sad.

Appears that I am not the only one that disagrees with the way you have gone about your posting...

Yes I did read your whole post. Problem though is that you contradicted yourself.

All you have provided to this dicscussion is that your method is the only one. You can only win by betting overs on the "false favourite".
Overs are overs, whether the horse is favourite or not.

Yes you are entitled to your opinion. But so is everybody else. Get over yourself.

[crash]

'Appears that I am not the only one that disagrees with the way you have gone about your posting'

Safety in numbers BJ? [more like mob mentality....and intelligence].

[KennyVictor]

Safety in numbers BJ? [more like mob mentality....and intelligence].

Ouch!!! Went in over the ball and took the player there. :-)

[crash]

Now we can all be friend again :-)

I've got to work on my delivery [of my opinion], it sucks. I just re-read some of my posts again and even I felt rubbed-up the wrong way just reading the stuff !!!

[BJ]

Now we can all be friend again :-)

I've got to work on my delivery [of my opinion], it sucks. I just re-read some of my posts again and even I felt rubbed-up the wrong way just reading the stuff !!!

Writing something with the same intentions of how you would wish to say it, is a hard concept.

2 vital concepts when it comes to delivering a message are : tone of voice and body language.
Both of which are missing from a forum environment. All we have to go on is words on the screen.

Glad you are somebody that can step back and see others opinions. Also glad that you believe so much in what you are doing. We need more people that are so certain of their way of doing things, but we also need to believe that there are more than 1 way.

Happy punting. And don't forget, there is nothing wrong with a bit of "healthy discussion". :)

[crash]

Your a good sport BJ. I try to get as much 'tone' into my posts as possible and I'm working on body language.

Just remember, there is only one way to do things, my way ;-)

[KennyVictor]

I wanted to say something nice and in the spirit of reconcilliation too but everything I came up with sounded condescending. I might employ BJ as a speech writer if I ever need one.
Anyway, what BJ said.

KV

[beton]

Thankfully we don't have the tone of voice and body language or contact. Otherwise we also have kicking scratching biting and gouging. Mind you some of the stoushes have been entertaining, whilst others you wish would go away faster than the money in the wife's credit account. LSB.
Beton

[marcus25]

. LSB.
Beton
As the lady said, "Please explain?"
Regards

[rabbitz]

Why do I shoot 40 stableford points one day and 29 the next??? Probably for the same reason that a good horse bolts in today and finishes down the track at its next start.

The answer to that is "god knows"

Over the past couple of years I have seen dozens of mechanical systems in this forum,all basically the same.Different combinations of the same information perhaps,but really the same old formula worked and re-worked.

Some of them get results some of the time,but none are consistent money makers.

I cant understand my own form on the golf course and I dont have a jockey,barrier draw,,trainer,,etc etc ad infinitum,,,so my chances of predicting what a horse might do at some remote racetrack are pretty slim.

I like punting and make a reasonable fist of it.How ???? Just by following the money trail,,,,it's there,,it can be elusive,but it's there.To win requires patience and experience....Ok ok I'm getting there,,,,,next paragraph......

I think that there is a logical pattern in betting sequences,,they can be difficult to spot,but there is a rhythm to it all..A computer programmer who can capture this rhythm and link it to a TAB race betting fluctuation page will have the key to the vault.In my heart I know it can be done,in reality I dont have the ability to attempt it.

Maybe someone out there has gone down this path.He/she sure as hell isn't going to tell us.

im a golfer and i think your score varies so much on the golf course because of your level of expectation and belief in your own ability.this also relates to punting,there is an expectation of winning but when we dont win,anxiety creeps in and our level of judgement may be clouded,so we make bad decisions trying for a big collect,ie. the same as trying to hit your three wood 2oo metres over water,instead of laying up
cheers

[lomaca]

im a golfer and i think your score varies so much on the golf course because of your level of expectation and belief in your own ability.this also relates to punting,there is an expectation of winning but when we dont win,anxiety creeps in and our level of judgement may be clouded,so we make bad decisions trying for a big collect,ie. the same as trying to hit your three wood 2oo metres over water,instead of laying up
cheers
You are a man of reason mate! (hope "mate" not banned yet?)
Been there, done that, both on the golf course and in punting. That urge, to recoup the losses is just irresistible.
Happy to say overcame same!
May your first shot hit the flagpole many times (and not roll away into a bunker).

[beton]

LSB less said the better.

Punting like golf little wins or break even for every one of the eighteen holes. Its hard to play bad all day and expect kill the pig on the eighteenth.
Regards Beton

[syllabus23]

I'm not sure if horses have hopes or expectations,but I'm sure that they feel in the groove one day and out of it the next.Though at my age the groove seems to be a while ago.