Melbourne Cup Ratings

[Chuck]

These ratings are the result of a ratings point system that takes into account Form, Jockey, Barrier, Trainer, Distance and Course stats, Fitness and best result over 2000m

No. Horse Total
1 Makybe Diva 78.5
7 Railings 76.5
14 Portland Singa 72
11 Demerger 68
12 Dizelle 68
6 Eye Popper 66.5
2 Vinnie Roe 65.5
22 Leica Falcon 64
19 Envoy 62
4 Grey's Inn 62
23 Mr Celebrity 61
3 Distinction 57.5
21 Strasbourg 56
9 Kindjhal 55
13 Lachlan River 55

As you can see this is only the top 15

[Shaun]

Hi Chuck, hope you don't mind me putting my ratings here....i hate 10 different threads about the same thing


101 6 Eye Popper (JPN) (9)
101 1 Makybe Diva (GB) (14)
99 2 Vinnie Roe (IRE) (24)
96 7 Railings (5)
88 8 Xcellent (NZ) (17)
84 23 Mr Celebrity (NZ) (19)
77 4 Greys Inn (USA) (13)
75 13 Lachlan River (NZ) (3)
72 12 Dizelle (18)
69 22 Leica Falcon (20)
66 14 Portland Singa (NZ) (1)
60 11 Demerger (4)
58 17 Umbula (8)
58 18 Bazelle (NZ) (22)
57 3 Distinction (IRE) (21)
56 16 On a Jeune (11)
54 5 Franklins Gardens (GB) (10)
53 9 Kindjhal (FR) (12)
52 10 Hugs Dancer (FR) (7)
46 15 Vouvray (NZ) (15)
43 19 Envoy (NZ) (2)
36 21 Strasbourg (6)
30 20 Rizon (16)
22 24 Kamsky (23)


If i had to put in a roughie it would be 21 Strasbourg his form of late is good even though he has everything else against him that run on the week end was great

[Raw Instinct]

Alright I amnot going to ask you for your formulas or anything but your ratings when your working them out do you have a certain amount of categories and give a rating out of 10 or something like that for each or is it more to do with times weights carried and so forth. I am sorry to ask this I have never even attempted a rating system and was trying work out how to even start doing it. I would imagine that the overseas horses would be extremely hard to rate unless they had been here before and even if they have your only rating them on a couple of runs at best.

As I said I am not looking for anyone devulge there formula or anything just a bit of an idea on how you guys go about compiling this info.

[xptdriver]

Alright I amnot going to ask you for your formulas or anything but your ratings when your working them out do you have a certain amount of categories and give a rating out of 10 or something like that for each or is it more to do with times weights carried and so forth. I am sorry to ask this I have never even attempted a rating system and was trying work out how to even start doing it. I would imagine that the overseas horses would be extremely hard to rate unless they had been here before and even if they have your only rating them on a couple of runs at best.

As I said I am not looking for anyone devulge there formula or anything just a bit of an idea on how you guys go about compiling this info.

Gday raw

my ratings are pretty simple really... they involve past few SP, beaten lengths last few starts, average of the last few run's ratings and a couple of little things... quite often horses end up with a negative rating so I show them no rating at all... Using this method 1st starters are not rated at all, they are always tricky...

Using that formula is why Eyepopper rated so well in the Caulfield Cup, beacuse it's form had been ok overseas... and does not rate so well in the Melbourne Cup... Mainly beacuse of the price it started in the CC.. I think this method makes rating the OS horses a lot easier

Hope that helps a bit

[Chuck]

Raw its pretty simple -

Form is /40 (last start: /8, last win: /8, 2nd last start: /8, 3rd last: /6, 4th last /4, 5th last /4 and 6th last /2

Jockey /8, Trainer /6, Barrier /6 (according to how the horse runs e.g. leads). This gives a rating /20

Course and Distance stats is an overall, personal rating /10

Fitness is /10 according to fitness patterns

then Best results oer 2000m is /5

then i give and overall opinion /5

Usually it is out of 100, but i have removed one part so it is out of 90

BTW i made a mistake with makybe and railings, they should be 76.5 and 74.5 respectively

it is really simple and no doubt not as thrrough or extensive as xpt's but it works for me

[Shaun]

Mine is a little hard to explain in one post all horses start with a rating of 120 and these are the catg i use

Win%
Place%
Average Prize Money

these are ranked in oder and the top selection in each gets 1 and so on down the list

then i take these amounts away from 120 so if we have a horse that is the top selection in these three catg it would be 120-3


Then i ad the beaten margins of the last two runs to a maximum of 10 lenghts in each....this is then deducted from the 120then i use the track and distance win and place percentages in the same maner and this is all deducted from the 120 so in all i use 9 different bits of information to get my rating....i use an excel sheet i wrote up and it takes me about 2 minutes to collect the form then work out the top raters.

[Raw Instinct]

Thanks guys that gives me something to chew over anyway very much appreciated.

[BORDI]

hey chuck.


\what do you mean /40, /8 etc. sorry dude just dont understand what you mean..

cheers

matt..

[Chrome Prince]

Strasbourg

Strasbourg has come right at right time, to think this horse once had wraps on him and then disappointed greatly. He's gone around the rank outsider of the field in many many races, the lead and fade type, the roughy.

Consider this if you will, he lead basically all the way on Saturday and ran the last 600m in 33.57 (roughly). Makybe Diva ran her last 600m in the Cox Plate in 35 seconds plus.

It would be a very big ask on Tuesday to lead all the way and win, but Bart knows what he's doing, there will be horses coming at him from everywhere on Tuesday.

The question is...was that Strasbourg's best or does he now have something left?

On his race time, if he pulled up well and strips fitter, he could well be in the prizemoney and beat some more fancied horses.

On A Jeune

This gelding could be a horse at odds, he's given all indications that he's looking for more distance and has also come good at the right time. Could Jeune's son make history and take out the Cup? Even though they all finished reasonably close in a blanket finish in the Geelong Cup, this horse poked his nose out at the right time and showed some fighting spirit. Interesting to note that this horse's dam is by King's High.

I think this horse has a very good chance at odds and will handle a wet track if the heaven's open up.

Franklin Gardens

Not a lot of talk about this horse really, but this could be the foreign smokey. We know he'll get the distance, handle any going and is right up to the class based on a 2nd in a G3 over 3219m to Alcazar (no slouch) and a win over 2795m in a G2 beating Percussionist.

There you have it - three very good chances at odds.

[Chuck]

hey chuck.


\what do you mean /40, /8 etc. sorry dude just dont understand what you mean..

cheers

matt..

"/" means "Out of" e.g. for the last run you rate it out of 8, 8 being best and 0 being worst

[goldmember]

These ratings are computer based on prizemoney, starts, runs & placings on fast /good /dead /slow/heavy and track & distance and whether or not placed in last 2 starts:

VINNIE ROE / EYE POPPER [110]
MAKYBE DIVA [100]
XCELLENT/ MR CELEBRITY/RAILINGS [95]
DISTINCTION / GREYS INN/ LACHLAN RIVER [85]
FRANKLINS GARDENS [76.5]
HUGS DANCER / DIZELLE [75]
LEICA FALCON [71.5]
PORTLAND SINGA [65]
DEMERGER / VOUVRAY [63.5]
BAZELLE [60]
STRASBOURG [58.5]
UMBULA [52]
ON A JEUNE [50]
KINDJHAL [46.5]
ENVOY [41.5]
RIZON [26.5]
KAMSKY [16.5]

[goldmember]

These ratings are computer based, on prizemoney,starts, runs & placings on fast/ good /dead/slow /heavy, track and distance, and whether or not placed in last 2 starts and then rated on that days track condition:

VINNIE ROE/EYE POPPER [110]
MAKYBE DIVA [100]
XCELLENT/MR CELEBRITY/RAILINGS [95]
DISTINCTION/GREYS INN/LACHLAN RIVER [85]
FRANKLINS GARDENS [76.5]
HUGS DANCER/DIZELLE [75]
LEICA FALCON [71.5]
PORTLAND SINGA [65]
DEMERGER/VOUVRAY [63.5]
BAZELLE [60]
STRASBOURGH [58.5]
UMBULA [52]
ON A JUENE [50]
KINDJHAL [46.5]
ENVOY [41.5]
RIZON [26.5]
KAMSKY [16.5]


had success with this program on sat with the last 7 races [1st race a coup[le of horses had 3 starts and 2nd race only 5 starters so i passed on them]

on top selectings were :

R3 Confectioner [unplaced]
R4 Serenade Rose /Astronomia [$15 win & placed]
R5 Lotteria [$3.30 win]
R6 Pendragon [unplaced]
R7 Lad Of The Manor [$2.90 win]
R8 Takeover Target [unplaced]
R9 Rockford Bay [$23.10 win ]


picked a few quinella's and a couple of trifecta's and Glamour Puss was a 3rd selection with Cape Of Good Hope, Falkirk and Barley A Moment just behind her, only been trotting it out at carnival time the last couple of years, before that i used it every week, might have to again !

[brave chief]

No surprises here:

Horse.....................Rating........Price

Makybe Diva............107...........$7.83
Vinnie Roe...............102...........$47.00
Distinction................97....................
Grey's Inn...............100....................
Franklins Gardens.......99....................
Eye Popper..............110...........$5.22
Railings...................111...........$4.70
Xcellent..................107.......... $7.83
Kindjhal....................94....................
Hugs Dancer.............93.....................
Demerger................101....................
Dizelle......................99....................
Lachlan River...........108............$6.71
Portland Singa..........102..........$47.00
Vouvray...................97.....................
On A Jeune...............94.....................
Umbula.....................95....................
Bazelle.....................95......................
Envoy......................90.....................
Rizon.......................87.....................
Strasbourg...............96......................
Leica Falcon............108............$6.71
Mr Celebrity.............101....................
Kamsky.....................89....................


Mr Celebrity was disappointing on Saturday & didnt hit the line with any gusto. Lachlan River put in a nice trial without really impressing, but it was a pretty hot WFA field all the same. Some hope. Dont like the Diva at all, although she was always going to come up with the ratings. Boss said she was spent with 100m to go in the Cox Plate - she had nothing left. They trained her for that distance this year & I doubt she will hit the line like we are accustomed to. My early tip Vouvray did little on Saturday but i'll have to throw her in my tri.

[xptdriver]

Gday All

For what it is worth here are my ratings for the Cup... I wont be around tomorrow so I will put them up now..

1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 23 MR CELEBRITY 31
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 8 XCELLENT 31
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 7 RAILINGS 31
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 1 MAKYBE DIVA 29
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 2 VINNIE ROE 29
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 22 LEICA FALCON 28
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 6 EYE POPPER 26
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 3 DISTINCTION 23
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 12 DIZELLE 22
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 16 ON A JEUNE 22
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 4 GREYS INN 21
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 17 UMBULA 21
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 9 KINDJHAL 20
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 14 PORTLAND SINGA 19
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 13 LACHLAN RIVER 18
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 5 FRANKLINS GARDENS 17
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 15 VOUVRAY 17
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 19 ENVOY 17
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 11 DEMERGER 14
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 20 RIZON 12
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 18 BAZELLE 12
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 24 KAMSKY 10
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 10 HUGS DANCER 8
1/11/2005 3:00 FLEMINGTON 7 21 STRASBOURG 8

[dundas lane]

Final prices using my ratings for this years Melbourne Cup.

(Assuming no scratchings and good track).

EYE POPPER 6/1
RAILINGS 15/2
DIZELLE 9/1
MAKYBE DIVA 10/1
MR CELEBRITY 12/1
KINDJHAL 15/1
XCELLENT 15/1
UMBULA 18/1
VINNIE ROE 18/1
LEICA FALCON 18/1
DISTINCTION 25/1
ON A JEUNE 25/1
BAZELLE 28/1
RIZON 28/1
ENVOY 33/1
STRASBOURG 33/1
HUGS DANCER 50/1
PORTLAND SINGA 55/1
KAMSKY 60/1
DEMERGER 60/1
LACHLAN RIVER 66/1
GREYS INN 100/1
FRANKLINS GARDENS 100/1
VOUVRAY 150/1

Good Luck.


dundas lane ............

[Filante]

No surprises here:

Horse.....................Rating........Price

Makybe Diva............107...........$7.83
Vinnie Roe...............102...........$47.00
Distinction................97....................
Grey's Inn...............100....................
Franklins Gardens.......99....................
Eye Popper..............110...........$5.22
Railings...................111...........$4.70
Xcellent..................107.......... $7.83
Kindjhal....................94....................
Hugs Dancer.............93.....................
Demerger................101....................
Dizelle......................99....................
Lachlan River...........108............$6.71
Portland Singa..........102..........$47.00
Vouvray...................97.....................
On A Jeune...............94.....................
Umbula.....................95....................
Bazelle.....................95......................
Envoy......................90.....................
Rizon.......................87.....................
Strasbourg...............96......................
Leica Falcon............108............$6.71
Mr Celebrity.............101....................
Kamsky.....................89....................


Mr Celebrity was disappointing on Saturday & didnt hit the line with any gusto. Lachlan River put in a nice trial without really impressing, but it was a pretty hot WFA field all the same. Some hope. Dont like the Diva at all, although she was always going to come up with the ratings. Boss said she was spent with 100m to go in the Cox Plate - she had nothing left. They trained her for that distance this year & I doubt she will hit the line like we are accustomed to. My early tip Vouvray did little on Saturday but i'll have to throw her in my tri.

Mr Celebrity went fine on Saturday, the problem was that the lead time was so slow that none of the backmarkers could make any ground. He's absolutely beaten the handicapper here being a group 1 winner (albeit over 1600m). The way he finishes off his races and being by Peintre Celebre he'll stay the distance and be right in the finish.

I have them:

22. Leica Falcon
7. Railings
23. Mr Celebrity
1. Makybe Diva
12. Dizelle

[Chrome Prince]

On A Jeune

This gelding could be a horse at odds, he's given all indications that he's looking for more distance and has also come good at the right time. Could Jeune's son make history and take out the Cup? Even though they all finished reasonably close in a blanket finish in the Geelong Cup, this horse poked his nose out at the right time and showed some fighting spirit. Interesting to note that this horse's dam is by King's High.

I think this horse has a very good chance at odds and will handle a wet track if the heaven's open up.


Hope someone boxed it up with the Champ :D

[mad]

Great work Chrome,

Was an outstanding run i thought, wasn't on myself but great stuff all the same.

[Shaun]

I wish i did have first and third.....just didn't get there....i guess the result will be good for all except the bookies.

[dundas lane]

Nice "get" Chrome, well done. I blackbooked this horse on September the 11th in another thread, and held high hopes it could improve on what it had shown last year when not much went right for it.

I had feature doubles going for over 400k, each way bets @ 250/1, 200/1 & 150/1. I only backed it for a place today due to my concerns with the jockey's ability to ride a "get back" horse in such a big race. Sad to say, my concerns were correct!

Why Peter Montgomerie and the owners decided for Gauci is an absolute mystery. He has proven time and again to be one of the worst "come from behind" riders since M.Clarke.

Cost me a fortune today; cost the trainer and connections a great deal more!

Should never be allowed anywhere near that horse ever again!


dundas lane .........