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  #1  
Old 30th October 2005, 11:12 AM
Chuck Chuck is offline
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Default Melbourne Cup Ratings

These ratings are the result of a ratings point system that takes into account Form, Jockey, Barrier, Trainer, Distance and Course stats, Fitness and best result over 2000m

No. Horse Total
1 Makybe Diva 78.5
7 Railings 76.5
14 Portland Singa 72
11 Demerger 68
12 Dizelle 68
6 Eye Popper 66.5
2 Vinnie Roe 65.5
22 Leica Falcon 64
19 Envoy 62
4 Grey's Inn 62
23 Mr Celebrity 61
3 Distinction 57.5
21 Strasbourg 56
9 Kindjhal 55
13 Lachlan River 55

As you can see this is only the top 15
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  #2  
Old 30th October 2005, 12:57 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Hi Chuck, hope you don't mind me putting my ratings here....i hate 10 different threads about the same thing


101 6 Eye Popper (JPN) (9)
101 1 Makybe Diva (GB) (14)
99 2 Vinnie Roe (IRE) (24)
96 7 Railings (5)
88 8 Xcellent (NZ) (17)
84 23 Mr Celebrity (NZ) (19)
77 4 Greys Inn (USA) (13)
75 13 Lachlan River (NZ) (3)
72 12 Dizelle (18)
69 22 Leica Falcon (20)
66 14 Portland Singa (NZ) (1)
60 11 Demerger (4)
58 17 Umbula (8)
58 18 Bazelle (NZ) (22)
57 3 Distinction (IRE) (21)
56 16 On a Jeune (11)
54 5 Franklins Gardens (GB) (10)
53 9 Kindjhal (FR) (12)
52 10 Hugs Dancer (FR) (7)
46 15 Vouvray (NZ) (15)
43 19 Envoy (NZ) (2)
36 21 Strasbourg (6)
30 20 Rizon (16)
22 24 Kamsky (23)


If i had to put in a roughie it would be 21 Strasbourg his form of late is good even though he has everything else against him that run on the week end was great
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  #3  
Old 30th October 2005, 01:02 PM
Raw Instinct Raw Instinct is offline
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Alright I amnot going to ask you for your formulas or anything but your ratings when your working them out do you have a certain amount of categories and give a rating out of 10 or something like that for each or is it more to do with times weights carried and so forth. I am sorry to ask this I have never even attempted a rating system and was trying work out how to even start doing it. I would imagine that the overseas horses would be extremely hard to rate unless they had been here before and even if they have your only rating them on a couple of runs at best.

As I said I am not looking for anyone devulge there formula or anything just a bit of an idea on how you guys go about compiling this info.
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  #4  
Old 30th October 2005, 01:13 PM
xptdriver xptdriver is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raw Instinct
Alright I amnot going to ask you for your formulas or anything but your ratings when your working them out do you have a certain amount of categories and give a rating out of 10 or something like that for each or is it more to do with times weights carried and so forth. I am sorry to ask this I have never even attempted a rating system and was trying work out how to even start doing it. I would imagine that the overseas horses would be extremely hard to rate unless they had been here before and even if they have your only rating them on a couple of runs at best.

As I said I am not looking for anyone devulge there formula or anything just a bit of an idea on how you guys go about compiling this info.


Gday raw

my ratings are pretty simple really... they involve past few SP, beaten lengths last few starts, average of the last few run's ratings and a couple of little things... quite often horses end up with a negative rating so I show them no rating at all... Using this method 1st starters are not rated at all, they are always tricky...

Using that formula is why Eyepopper rated so well in the Caulfield Cup, beacuse it's form had been ok overseas... and does not rate so well in the Melbourne Cup... Mainly beacuse of the price it started in the CC.. I think this method makes rating the OS horses a lot easier

Hope that helps a bit
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  #5  
Old 30th October 2005, 01:22 PM
Chuck Chuck is offline
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Raw its pretty simple -

Form is /40 (last start: /8, last win: /8, 2nd last start: /8, 3rd last: /6, 4th last /4, 5th last /4 and 6th last /2

Jockey /8, Trainer /6, Barrier /6 (according to how the horse runs e.g. leads). This gives a rating /20

Course and Distance stats is an overall, personal rating /10

Fitness is /10 according to fitness patterns

then Best results oer 2000m is /5

then i give and overall opinion /5

Usually it is out of 100, but i have removed one part so it is out of 90

BTW i made a mistake with makybe and railings, they should be 76.5 and 74.5 respectively

it is really simple and no doubt not as thrrough or extensive as xpt's but it works for me
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  #6  
Old 30th October 2005, 01:24 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Mine is a little hard to explain in one post all horses start with a rating of 120 and these are the catg i use

Win%
Place%
Average Prize Money

these are ranked in oder and the top selection in each gets 1 and so on down the list

then i take these amounts away from 120 so if we have a horse that is the top selection in these three catg it would be 120-3


Then i ad the beaten margins of the last two runs to a maximum of 10 lenghts in each....this is then deducted from the 120then i use the track and distance win and place percentages in the same maner and this is all deducted from the 120 so in all i use 9 different bits of information to get my rating....i use an excel sheet i wrote up and it takes me about 2 minutes to collect the form then work out the top raters.
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  #7  
Old 30th October 2005, 01:31 PM
Raw Instinct Raw Instinct is offline
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Thanks guys that gives me something to chew over anyway very much appreciated.
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  #8  
Old 30th October 2005, 01:42 PM
BORDI BORDI is offline
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hey chuck.


\what do you mean /40, /8 etc. sorry dude just dont understand what you mean..

cheers

matt..
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  #9  
Old 30th October 2005, 01:43 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Strasbourg

Strasbourg has come right at right time, to think this horse once had wraps on him and then disappointed greatly. He's gone around the rank outsider of the field in many many races, the lead and fade type, the roughy.

Consider this if you will, he lead basically all the way on Saturday and ran the last 600m in 33.57 (roughly). Makybe Diva ran her last 600m in the Cox Plate in 35 seconds plus.

It would be a very big ask on Tuesday to lead all the way and win, but Bart knows what he's doing, there will be horses coming at him from everywhere on Tuesday.

The question is...was that Strasbourg's best or does he now have something left?

On his race time, if he pulled up well and strips fitter, he could well be in the prizemoney and beat some more fancied horses.

On A Jeune

This gelding could be a horse at odds, he's given all indications that he's looking for more distance and has also come good at the right time. Could Jeune's son make history and take out the Cup? Even though they all finished reasonably close in a blanket finish in the Geelong Cup, this horse poked his nose out at the right time and showed some fighting spirit. Interesting to note that this horse's dam is by King's High.

I think this horse has a very good chance at odds and will handle a wet track if the heaven's open up.

Franklin Gardens

Not a lot of talk about this horse really, but this could be the foreign smokey. We know he'll get the distance, handle any going and is right up to the class based on a 2nd in a G3 over 3219m to Alcazar (no slouch) and a win over 2795m in a G2 beating Percussionist.

There you have it - three very good chances at odds.
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Last edited by Chrome Prince : 30th October 2005 at 02:02 PM.
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  #10  
Old 30th October 2005, 03:09 PM
Chuck Chuck is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BORDI
hey chuck.


\what do you mean /40, /8 etc. sorry dude just dont understand what you mean..

cheers

matt..


"/" means "Out of" e.g. for the last run you rate it out of 8, 8 being best and 0 being worst
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