ATP Tour Tennis '06

[Betsy]

Welcome guys

Hoping to provide ATP Tour selections and writeups on a continual basis, hopefully with the same success as last season. Last year was my first year posting plays and as you may already be aware they proved quite successful. I achieved a return on investment (ROI) of over 20% and was able to turn a profit on a weekly basis.

I do not use any specific systems nor do I believe in following specific trends, I just analyse each specific match individually, drawing from what I have uncovered over my years of playing and watching tennis.

As always I will be using a 1-10 unit staking system, with the average play being approximately 2-5 units.

Feel free to offer any support, whether it be constructive criticism or just a few words of wisdom. I'm always willing to gain expereince from other punters and hopefully together we can clean out the bookies.

Good luck and happy punting

Betsy

[Betsy]

Kiefer over Arthurs @ $1.46 (Centrebet)

Kiefer is without doubt the superior player in this matchup however as we are unable to uncover what the players did with their time off I will only play this match with small stakes. Arthurs is getting on at 34 but will have a vocal Burswood Dome spurring him on. I see this one as 60-40 in Kiefer's favour and am willing to take the $1.46 available.

Good luckJust transfering this one across from the Tennis Betting thread.

Kiefer easily accounted for Arthurs (6-3 6-4) who never really looked in it.

[Betsy]

Serbia and Montenegro vs. USA looks to be one of the better matchups on paper that the Hopman Cup has to offer. By rights this one should go down to the last match.

Djokovic is value at $2.65 against Taylor Dent. If the end of last season is anything to go by Djokovic will cause a few problems for alot of the big named players this year. He showed his talent at the '05 US Open where he accounted for Monfils and Ancic only to lose to Verdasco in 5 tight sets. My main concern is Dent's previous record (over the past two years) during the Australian summer swing. Dent has posted some great results at the commencement of the previous two seasons, including a finals appearance at Adelaide last year where he lost to an in form J Johansson. I see the match at about 55-45 in Dent's favour therefore value is with Djokovic.

I'm not sure if I will pull the trigger or not on this one but will let you know either way.

Good luck all

[Betsy]

Djokovic has come right in to $2.20 at Centrebet from the $2.65 it opened at yesterday. I won't be playing this match as there are too many uncertainties and the value for Djokovic has dried up. A safer bet for the day looks to be Ivanovic to beat Lisa Raymond at $1.28.

No plays today

Good luck lads

[Betsy]

Tomas Berdych over Agustin Calleri @ $1.44

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1.5 Units

Don't worry about their last match or Berdych's poor form early in 05, he has improved out of sight since then. The exciting thing is at only 20 years old he still has much to learn. Calleri, at 30 years old, is at home on clay. He holds a mere 5-9 win/loss record on hardcourt and should prove no match for the Czech.

James Blake over Alberto Martin @ $1.167

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 3 Units

The low price doesn't concern me here as this one is money for jam and the odds reflect that. In Blake's last five hardcourt tournaments he has won two and also made the final and quarters of two others. All three of Blake's losses were to players ranked inside the top ten (Federer, Roddick, Agassi).

Martin on the other hand is a handy claycourter but is far from at home on hardcourt. If you don't like these odds, you may want to place Blake in a parlay with Berdych to increase the odds. All I can say is that this is better than bank interest!

Other Leans include:

Chela over Karlovic @ $2.00 - Hate going against the big Croat but Chela is more than worth a shot at $2
Robredo over Melzer @ $1.77 - Melzer performed well at Adelaide last year but Robredo is value here, a class above Melzer

Good luck all

[thebookie]

Just transfering this one across from the Tennis Betting thread.

Kiefer easily accounted for Arthurs (6-3 6-4) who never really looked in it.


Hi Betsy,

Enjoy your posts, but, do you realise that a 60% chance equates to a price of $1.66?

So, by taking $1.46 you are taking way under the odds based on your assessment?

[Betsy]

Thanks for that thebookie, my percentage estimate of Kiefer's chance of success was only an approximation and wasn't worked out by crunching numbers or anything like that. I've always wanted to know how to convert odds to percentages, I'm sure it's not too hard but I've never stopped and worked it out. Could you guide me in the right direction mate?

[Betsy]

Tomas Berdych over Agustin Calleri @ $1.44

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1.5 Units

Don't worry about their last match or Berdych's poor form early in 05, he has improved out of sight since then. The exciting thing is at only 20 years old he still has much to learn. Calleri, at 30 years old, is at home on clay. He holds a mere 5-9 win/loss record on hardcourt and should prove no match for the Czech.
Berdych df. Calleri 6-4 6-7 6-4

As there is no live scoreboard for the Adelaide International if you want in game scores your best bet is to listen to ABC radio and wait for them to cross from the cricket to the tennis scores around Australia

Possibly going to play Haas over Wawrinka later this afternoon, will wait till closer to game time before locking it in though

Good luck all

[Papyrus]

Hi Betsy,
Since I've read your posts, it seems you have my attention, I play tennis and I like watching it. I've never put money on a match before, but that could change.
Some of these player I really don't know enough about them, I've looked about the web looking for the best site for more info, but I'm wondering if you could point me in the right direction.

Thanks
Papy

[Betsy]

Hey papyrus,

I'd probably start with atptennis.com/en/players/

You can search for individual players records and biographies or put two players in and find their head-to-head records. It's always a good start to just follow the action, watching as many matches as you can while keeping up with other results across the world.

You've chosen a good time to look into tennis betting as the players are coming back from their breaks and are often playing better/worse than the previous season. Therefore, not knowing the quality of all the players from previous seasons may help you analyse their current form, without having any preconceived ideas floating around.

Following other punters analysis can often help but you will find after some time you will start to form your own opinion on each matchup.

menstennisforums.com is a good place to go and chat about tennis betting. The Gamblers Lounge (Tennis Betting) is where most of the action takes place (My username is Breaker).

Good luck if you choose to have a punt, don't take it too seriously - at the end of the day it's all a bit of fun

Cheers

Betsy

[Betsy]

Thomas Johansson over Novak Djokovic @ $1.402

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1 Unit

After seeing Dent dismantle Djokovic in straight sets yesterday I cannot see Johansson having any troubles in this one. Although he boasts bucketloads of natural talent, Djokovic seems to struggle to out manoeuvre his opponents, opting for the bash and crash method when times are tough. Novak was unable to find any rythm on his serve yesterday and in turn was broken twice in his first two service games. Johansson, although not having the greatest year last year, finished with a 19-14 win/loss record on hardcourt and seems to play well on Australian soil. He should prove too experienced for the young Serbian and I can see him winning this in two.

Good luck all

[Betsy]

Thomas Johansson over Novak Djokovic @ $1.402

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1 Unit

After seeing Dent dismantle Djokovic in straight sets yesterday I cannot see Johansson having any troubles in this one. Although he boasts bucketloads of natural talent, Djokovic seems to struggle to out manoeuvre his opponents, opting for the bash and crash method when times are tough. Novak was unable to find any rythm on his serve yesterday and in turn was broken twice in his first two service games. Johansson, although not having the greatest year last year, finished with a 19-14 win/loss record on hardcourt and seems to play well on Australian soil. He should prove too experienced for the young Serbian and I can see him winning this in two.

Good luck all

Johansson wins in two sets to make it a perfect night (2-0)



Robredo over Melzer @ $1.77 - Melzer performed well at Adelaide last year but Robredo is value here, a class above Melzer


Robredo also won in two but this was just a lean, not a bet



------------------------------------------

ATP Tour '06 Betting Overview

Selections: 3
Won: 3
Lost: 0
SR: 100%
Staked: 4.5 Units
Return: 6.48 Units
Profit: 1.98 Units
ROI: 44%

------------------------------------------

[Betsy]

Today we have a few short priced favourites that tickle my fancy.

Pending:

James Blake over Alberto Martin @ $1.17
Start time: 2:30pm EDST


Considering today:

Peter Wessels over Todd Reid @ $1.33
Start time: ~9:30pm EDST

Nikolay Davydenko over C Rochus @ $1.20
Start time: 11:30pm EDST

Igor Andreev over Potito Starace @ $1.31
Start time: 12:00am EDST


Will post final plays well before first match (Wessels v Reid)

Good luck all

Betsy

[Papyrus]

Thanks Betsy,
You'll see me over there at menstennis as "aussieigor" when they let me in?
if they let me in.

[Betsy]

Peter Wessels over Todd Reid @ $1.33

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 2 Units

Wessels has shown good form of late with two wins from two at this years Hopman Cup. However this play is more against Reid than capitalising on Wessels form. Reid had an injury plagued 2005 and never really posted any respectable results. The only reason this price is around the $1.30 mark is due to the crowds support of Reid. However, this has never proven helpful in the past for Reid. Sure he posted some wins in 04 on Australian soil, but they were against pretty average opposition. He also struggled with nerves upon representing Australia in Davis Cup. Overall I can't go past a straight sets win by Wessels here, he is far more experienced and the indoor court with help his big serving game.

More play/s to come

[thebookie]

Sure Betsy it's easy.

If you're working out probabilities of a player winning a match (such as 60-40)

then you just divide 1 by the % chance of winning (in this case 60%)

So, 1/0.60 = $1.66

and

1/0.40 = $2.50

That gives you a market marked to 100%

[Betsy]

James Blake over Alberto Martin @ $1.17

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 3 Units

The low price doesn't concern me here as this one is money for jam and the odds reflect that. In Blake's last five hardcourt tournaments he has won two and also made the final and quarters of two others. All three of Blake's losses were to players ranked inside the top ten (Federer, Roddick, Agassi).

Martin on the other hand is a handy claycourter but is far from at home on hardcourt. If you don't like these odds, you may want to place Blake in a parlay with Berdych to increase the odds. All I can say is that this is better than bank interest!
Blake wins with ease, 6-3 6-3.

Papyrus - Will see you at MTF soon, it shouldn't take long to activate your account

thebookie - Thanks champ, that's easier than I imagined, and to think I just completed Specialist Maths last year


Nikolay Davydenko over C Rochus @ $1.20

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 2 Units

Another short priced fav here, doesn't worry me at all as this one is overs. Davydenko is by far the superior player here and comes up against the lesser of the Rochus brothers in what should be a routine victory for the Ukraine. Davydenko is an all surface player (maybe not grass), able to match it with the best on clay whilst boasting a 22-14 win/loss record on hardcourt. Last year he beat the likes of Hrbaty, Ancic, Gonzalez and Berdych on hardcourt and only really lost to quality players. Davydenko played well at this tournament last year, losing to the eventual winner (Federer) in the SF. On the other hand, Rochus showed glimpses of good form last year but never really showed anything that would make me think twice about this result. Davydenko in two.

Best of luck to you all

PS. If you don't like the odds then get stuffed (just kidding). You might like to place Wessels and Davydenko in a multi for odds around $1.50

[Betsy]

Peter Wessels over Todd Reid @ $1.33

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 2 Units

Wessels has shown good form of late with two wins from two at this years Hopman Cup. However this play is more against Reid than capitalising on Wessels form. Reid had an injury plagued 2005 and never really posted any respectable results. The only reason this price is around the $1.30 mark is due to the crowds support of Reid. However, this has never proven helpful in the past for Reid. Sure he posted some wins in 04 on Australian soil, but they were against pretty average opposition. He also struggled with nerves upon representing Australia in Davis Cup. Overall I can't go past a straight sets win by Wessels here, he is far more experienced and the indoor court with help his big serving game.

More play/s to come
Wessels wins 7-5 6-4

[Betsy]

Nikolay Davydenko over C Rochus @ $1.20

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 2 Units

Another short priced fav here, doesn't worry me at all as this one is overs. Davydenko is by far the superior player here and comes up against the lesser of the Rochus brothers in what should be a routine victory for the Ukraine. Davydenko is an all surface player (maybe not grass), able to match it with the best on clay whilst boasting a 22-14 win/loss record on hardcourt. Last year he beat the likes of Hrbaty, Ancic, Gonzalez and Berdych on hardcourt and only really lost to quality players. Davydenko played well at this tournament last year, losing to the eventual winner (Federer) in the SF. On the other hand, Rochus showed glimpses of good form last year but never really showed anything that would make me think twice about this result. Davydenko in two.

Best of luck to you all

PS. If you don't like the odds then get stuffed (just kidding). You might like to place Wessels and Davydenko in a multi for odds around $1.50
Davydenko wins 6-3 6-1

Another perfect day, going 3-0, +1.57 Units

------------------------------------------

ATP Tour '06 Betting Overview

Selections: 6
Won: 6
Lost: 0
SR: 100%
Staked: 11.5 Units
Return: 15.05 Units
Profit: 3.55 Units
ROI: 30.9%

------------------------------------------

[Betsy]

Tomas Berdych over Andy Murray @ $1.84

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

Last time the two met Berdych had a number of chances to win the match, and should have taken them. Berdych finished last year off well beating the likes of Ljubicic, Ferrero, Stepanek and Coria. If he carries that form to Australia then this should be an easy win for the Czech. Murray on the other hand only really had one good tournament on hc, making the final in Thailand where he was beaten by Federer. However, for the majority of last year Murray played Challengers and even some Futures. I don't believe he is at the level where he can consitantly beat quality players such as Berdych, however, that doesn't mean the Brits can't hype him up as the next big thing.

Sorry about the late notice, I took Berdych for 0.5 units at $1.84 when the market came out but was too tired to post a writeup. Match starts in 30 mins.

[Betsy]

Nicolas Kiefer over Gaston Gaudio @ $1.48

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1.5 Units

Germany is favourite to win the Hopman Cup and have started their campaign off well, therefore there is no questioning the motivation of Kiefer here to give it his best. Kiefer looked impressive in his straight sets win over Arthurs, breaking Arthurs at will and holding his serve with ease. In contrast, Gaudio was beaten in straight sets by Wessels in his first match, unable to find a rythm on his serve and continuosly foot faulting. Kiefer will have no problems with his high ball toss at Burswood Dome as it is indoors. I can't see Gaudio going through a set without being broken, he is half the player he is on clay when he steps out onto hardcourt. Kiefer in two.

Sorry about the late notice here, Kiefers price has also come in, however I got on early enough to get the ~$1.50 odds

[Betsy]

Tomas Berdych over Andy Murray @ $1.84

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

Last time the two met Berdych had a number of chances to win the match, and should have taken them. Berdych finished last year off well beating the likes of Ljubicic, Ferrero, Stepanek and Coria. If he carries that form to Australia then this should be an easy win for the Czech. Murray on the other hand only really had one good tournament on hc, making the final in Thailand where he was beaten by Federer. However, for the majority of last year Murray played Challengers and even some Futures. I don't believe he is at the level where he can consitantly beat quality players such as Berdych, however, that doesn't mean the Brits can't hype him up as the next big thing.

Sorry about the late notice, I took Berdych for 0.5 units at $1.84 when the market came out but was too tired to post a writeup. Match starts in 30 mins.
Not till tomorrow guys. Sorry!

[Kitch]

Mario Ancic V Xavier Malisse.

Who would you back?

[karla909]

Hi betsy

Happy new year and all the best to you and other forum tennis punters and I hope we all have a great punting year.

I will attempt to post my selections here as best I can. Telstra upgraded our telephone box and at least the dial-up is reliable but slow as snails. I haven't the time to post detailed explainations of each match.

I am busy now but will come back later in the week with an explanation of my selection methods.

Today I am on

Karlovic bt Carlsen $1.50 (Adelaide)
Hrbaty bt Phillipousis $1.36 (Adelaide)
Youzhny bt Sanguinetti $1.45 (Doha)
Ascione bt Behrend $1.65 (Chennai)
Tursanov bt El Anouyi $1.40???? (Doha)

All selection are from an age situation which is 215 wins - 81 losses since 2003 for an ROI of 5%.

This is my most marginal system and right on my minimum % so I am playing these selections for 1/2 unit only this year.

Karla

[Betsy]

Nicolas Kiefer over Gaston Gaudio @ $1.48

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1.5 Units

Germany is favourite to win the Hopman Cup and have started their campaign off well, therefore there is no questioning the motivation of Kiefer here to give it his best. Kiefer looked impressive in his straight sets win over Arthurs, breaking Arthurs at will and holding his serve with ease. In contrast, Gaudio was beaten in straight sets by Wessels in his first match, unable to find a rythm on his serve and continuosly foot faulting. Kiefer will have no problems with his high ball toss at Burswood Dome as it is indoors. I can't see Gaudio going through a set without being broken, he is half the player he is on clay when he steps out onto hardcourt. Kiefer in two.

Sorry about the late notice here, Kiefers price has also come in, however I got on early enough to get the ~$1.50 odds


Kiefer beats Gaudio in straight sets, 6-3, 6-3

Good to see you back Karla, good luck with your plays

Kitch - sorry I couldn't get back to you before the start of play, just got off the golf course. I wouldn't touch it, Ancic was in poor form at the end of 05 and Xavier Malisse is talented but unpredictable at the best of times.

No more plays for today, unless I take Moodie over Monfils at $2.91

[Betsy]

------------------------------------------

ATP Tour '06 Betting Overview

Selections: 7
Won: 7
Lost: 0
SR: 100%
Staked: 13 Units
Return: 17.27 Units
Profit: 4.27 Units
ROI: 32.9%

------------------------------------------

First underdog for '06!

Wesley Moodie over Gael Monfils @ $3.10

Source: Centrebet
Stake: 0.27 Units

This one is overs! The big serving South African should show some fight in this matchup. He has posted some great results coming into this season and has continued to impress with a three set win over Max Mirnyi in his first round at Doha. Monfils is one of the up and coming youngsters who hasn't yet reached the high expectations thrust upon him after a successful junior career. He is still learning and, like Murray, is yet to show that he can consistently beat quality opponents. Monfils 12-10 '05 hardcourt record is slightly skewed by his finals appearance late last year in his home country France. Other than this result Monfils results were average at best. Moodie may prove too experienced for the Frenchman and I can see this one being won in three tight sets. I rate Monfils a 60% chance at best here, therefore the $3+ available at Centrebet is worth a small go.

Good luck

Betsy

[bobjoe66]

hi betsy,

ive always checked your tips with great interest. im just a tennis fan who has the odd small bet here and there nothing serious, but this year im going to try to keep a record and do it more seriously.

im following your bets and i will post anything thats takes my fancy as well!

glad to see you backed an underdog as last year i got so fed up of losing on short priced favourites that i decided to only go on the close matches and this returned me much better!

congratulations on 7 out of 7 so far!

[bobjoe66]

Hrbaty to beat Philippoussis @ 1.44

Hrbaty is a good all court player and should have too much for Philipoussis who has struggled for ages and only got past the 2nd round twice last year (i think). Hrbaty also beat him last year indoors and shouldn't have too many problems even against the Aussie crowd. I would have expected Hrbaty to be shorter then 1.44 hence why i've got on it.

[Betsy]

First underdog for '06!

Wesley Moodie over Gael Monfils @ $3.10

Source: Centrebet
Stake: 0.27 Units

This one is overs! The big serving South African should show some fight in this matchup. He has posted some great results coming into this season and has continued to impress with a three set win over Max Mirnyi in his first round at Doha. Monfils is one of the up and coming youngsters who hasn't yet reached the high expectations thrust upon him after a successful junior career. He is still learning and, like Murray, is yet to show that he can consistently beat quality opponents. Monfils 12-10 '05 hardcourt record is slightly skewed by his finals appearance late last year in his home country France. Other than this result Monfils results were average at best. Moodie may prove too experienced for the Frenchman and I can see this one being won in three tight sets. I rate Monfils a 60% chance at best here, therefore the $3+ available at Centrebet is worth a small go.

Good luck

Betsy
Moodie lost 7-6 6-4

Good fight by the South African, he was playing with a shoulder injury in the second set and managed to hold serve 4 times out of 5. As suspected the match was much closer than the odds predicted, and although bookies don't care whether its close or not, I'm happy with the result. No pressure to keep a perfect record now, haha.

bobjoe66 - Thanks for the kind words, good luck with the Hrbaty bet. Nice to have someone contributing to the thread.

Today we have:

Tomas Berdych over Andy Murray - 0.5 Units (Small play)
As posted yesterday

Also looking into Kiefer over Wessels at Hopman Cup and maybe even Dent over Johansson. Will post the plays (if any) after analysis.

Good luck and happy punting
Betsy

[Colorblind]

Hello Betsy. I´m a newcomer in this forum living in Sweden. Very intrested in tennis and bets around it. Will follow your page as an hawk. :)
Can tell one thing about Johansson. According to swedish texttv he have big problems with a bad foot and some strange skininfection.
Thomas sais: i have had feber and my right foot was swallowed as a football.Says further that he have had big porblems recent days and was very happy to win today. Sorry my poor spelling. I´m backing Taylor. Goodnight from a cold Sweden

[Betsy]

Hello Betsy. I´m a newcomer in this forum living in Sweden. Very intrested in tennis and bets around it. Will follow your page as an hawk. :)
Can tell one thing about Johansson. According to swedish texttv he have big problems with a bad foot and some strange skininfection.
Thomas sais: i have had feber and my right foot was swallowed as a football.Says further that he have had big porblems recent days and was very happy to win today. Sorry my poor spelling. I´m backing Taylor. Goodnight from a cold SwedenHey mate, good to have you on board. In regards to Johansson, that's one of my reasons for liking Dent, they spoke about it during the coverage of the Hopman Cup. Dent seems to be loving the indoor conditions anyway and is favourite here for all the right reasons. Johansson also struggled against Schukin yesterday. Should post a play on Dent soon, but will do a bit more analysis first.

Good luck buddy

[Kitch]

Hey Betsy mate, I will be following this thread as well :)

Two young gamblers going at it mate, while AFL and cricket is my specialty I have played and followed Tennis for 8 years or so.

Adelaide Matches today:

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="630"> <tbody><tr height="30"><td class="rowbluethin">12:15PM</td> <td class="rowbluethin">A Murray v T Berdych</td> <td class="rowbluethin" nowrap="nowrap"><input id="PDetail_1445307W" value="29|1445307|SPORT|315200272|ATP ADELAIDE|A Murray v T Berdych|1|Head to Head|1|Andy Murray|2.10|W||0|0|||0" type="hidden"><input id="chkPart_1445307W" class="checkbox" value="1445307W" onclick="return BB_AddRemove('1445307W');" type="checkbox">2.10 (http://www.iasbet.com/Sport/BetTypeContainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&BetTypeId=7#) </td> <td class="rowbluethin" nowrap="nowrap"><input id="PDetail_1445308W" value="29|1445308|SPORT|315200272|ATP ADELAIDE|A Murray v T Berdych|1|Head to Head|2|Tomas Berdych|1.68|W||0|0|||0" type="hidden"><input id="chkPart_1445308W" class="checkbox" value="1445308W" onclick="return BB_AddRemove('1445308W');" type="checkbox">1.68 (http://www.iasbet.com/Sport/BetTypeContainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&BetTypeId=7#) </td> <td class="rowbluethin" align="center"> More Bets (http://www.iasbet.com/sport/bettypecontainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&EventId=176877)</td> </tr> <tr height="30"> <td class="rowwhitethin">2:00PM</td> <td class="rowwhitethin">M Philippoussis v D Hrbaty</td> <td class="rowwhitethin" nowrap="nowrap"><input id="PDetail_1445313W" value="29|1445313|SPORT|315200277|ATP ADELAIDE|M Philippoussis v D Hrbaty|1|Head to Head|1|Mark Philippoussis|3.00|W||0|0|||0" type="hidden"><input id="chkPart_1445313W" class="checkbox" value="1445313W" onclick="return BB_AddRemove('1445313W');" type="checkbox">3.00 (http://www.iasbet.com/Sport/BetTypeContainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&BetTypeId=7#) </td> <td class="rowwhitethin" nowrap="nowrap"><input id="PDetail_1445314W" value="29|1445314|SPORT|315200277|ATP ADELAIDE|M Philippoussis v D Hrbaty|1|Head to Head|2|Dominik Hrbaty|1.36|W||0|0|||0" type="hidden"><input id="chkPart_1445314W" class="checkbox" value="1445314W" onclick="return BB_AddRemove('1445314W');" type="checkbox">1.36 (http://www.iasbet.com/Sport/BetTypeContainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&BetTypeId=7#) </td> <td class="rowwhitethin" align="center"> More Bets (http://www.iasbet.com/sport/bettypecontainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&EventId=176880)</td> </tr> <tr height="30"> <td class="rowbluethin">3:15PM</td> <td class="rowbluethin">I Karlovic v K Carlsen</td> <td class="rowbluethin" nowrap="nowrap"><input id="PDetail_1445309W" value="29|1445309|SPORT|315200276|ATP ADELAIDE|I Karlovic v K Carlsen|1|Head to Head|1|Ivo Karlovic|1.48|W||0|0|||0" type="hidden"><input id="chkPart_1445309W" class="checkbox" value="1445309W" onclick="return BB_AddRemove('1445309W');" type="checkbox">1.48 (http://www.iasbet.com/Sport/BetTypeContainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&BetTypeId=7#) </td> <td class="rowbluethin" nowrap="nowrap"><input id="PDetail_1445310W" value="29|1445310|SPORT|315200276|ATP ADELAIDE|I Karlovic v K Carlsen|1|Head to Head|2|Kenneth Carlsen|2.55|W||0|0|||0" type="hidden"><input id="chkPart_1445310W" class="checkbox" value="1445310W" onclick="return BB_AddRemove('1445310W');" type="checkbox">2.55 (http://www.iasbet.com/Sport/BetTypeContainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&BetTypeId=7#) </td> <td class="rowbluethin" align="center"> More Bets (http://www.iasbet.com/sport/bettypecontainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&EventId=176878)</td></tr></tbody> </table>
What you reckon mate?

[Betsy]

Hey Betsy mate, I will be following this thread as well :)

Two young gamblers going at it mate, while AFL and cricket is my specialty I have played and followed Tennis for 8 years or so.

Adelaide Matches today:

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=630 border=0><TBODY><TR height=30><TD class=rowbluethin>12:15PM</TD><TD class=rowbluethin>A Murray v T Berdych</TD><TD class=rowbluethin noWrap><INPUT id=PDetail_1445307W type=hidden value="29|1445307|SPORT|315200272|ATP ADELAIDE|A Murray v T Berdych|1|Head to Head|1|Andy Murray|2.10|W||0|0|||0"><INPUT class=checkbox id=chkPart_1445307W onclick="return BB_AddRemove('1445307W');" type=checkbox value=1445307W>2.10 (http://www.iasbet.com/Sport/BetTypeContainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&BetTypeId=7#) </TD><TD class=rowbluethin noWrap><INPUT id=PDetail_1445308W type=hidden value="29|1445308|SPORT|315200272|ATP ADELAIDE|A Murray v T Berdych|1|Head to Head|2|Tomas Berdych|1.68|W||0|0|||0"><INPUT class=checkbox id=chkPart_1445308W onclick="return BB_AddRemove('1445308W');" type=checkbox value=1445308W>1.68 (http://www.iasbet.com/Sport/BetTypeContainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&BetTypeId=7#) </TD><TD class=rowbluethin align=middle>More Bets (http://www.iasbet.com/sport/bettypecontainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&EventId=176877)</TD></TR><TR height=30><TD class=rowwhitethin>2:00PM</TD><TD class=rowwhitethin>M Philippoussis v D Hrbaty</TD><TD class=rowwhitethin noWrap><INPUT id=PDetail_1445313W type=hidden value="29|1445313|SPORT|315200277|ATP ADELAIDE|M Philippoussis v D Hrbaty|1|Head to Head|1|Mark Philippoussis|3.00|W||0|0|||0"><INPUT class=checkbox id=chkPart_1445313W onclick="return BB_AddRemove('1445313W');" type=checkbox value=1445313W>3.00 (http://www.iasbet.com/Sport/BetTypeContainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&BetTypeId=7#) </TD><TD class=rowwhitethin noWrap><INPUT id=PDetail_1445314W type=hidden value="29|1445314|SPORT|315200277|ATP ADELAIDE|M Philippoussis v D Hrbaty|1|Head to Head|2|Dominik Hrbaty|1.36|W||0|0|||0"><INPUT class=checkbox id=chkPart_1445314W onclick="return BB_AddRemove('1445314W');" type=checkbox value=1445314W>1.36 (http://www.iasbet.com/Sport/BetTypeContainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&BetTypeId=7#) </TD><TD class=rowwhitethin align=middle>More Bets (http://www.iasbet.com/sport/bettypecontainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&EventId=176880)</TD></TR><TR height=30><TD class=rowbluethin>3:15PM</TD><TD class=rowbluethin>I Karlovic v K Carlsen</TD><TD class=rowbluethin noWrap><INPUT id=PDetail_1445309W type=hidden value="29|1445309|SPORT|315200276|ATP ADELAIDE|I Karlovic v K Carlsen|1|Head to Head|1|Ivo Karlovic|1.48|W||0|0|||0"><INPUT class=checkbox id=chkPart_1445309W onclick="return BB_AddRemove('1445309W');" type=checkbox value=1445309W>1.48 (http://www.iasbet.com/Sport/BetTypeContainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&BetTypeId=7#) </TD><TD class=rowbluethin noWrap><INPUT id=PDetail_1445310W type=hidden value="29|1445310|SPORT|315200276|ATP ADELAIDE|I Karlovic v K Carlsen|1|Head to Head|2|Kenneth Carlsen|2.55|W||0|0|||0"><INPUT class=checkbox id=chkPart_1445310W onclick="return BB_AddRemove('1445310W');" type=checkbox value=1445310W>2.55 (http://www.iasbet.com/Sport/BetTypeContainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&BetTypeId=7#) </TD><TD class=rowbluethin align=middle>More Bets (http://www.iasbet.com/sport/bettypecontainer.aspx?SportId=29&CompetitionId=10939&EventId=176878)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
What you reckon mate?In short, Berdych, Hrbaty and Karlovic

However, I will only be playing Berdych (only small) as the other favourites don't represent value in my eyes. I have a small writeup on the Berdych/Murray match earlier in this thread.

Karlovic and Carlsen are both big servers and although Karlovic is a justified favourite, this match could be decided by two or three tiebreaks.

Hrbaty showed some remarkable form last season but it's hard to know what Flip got up to over the tennis break. He seems fitter than I've seen him before and when he's on he can cause some upsets so ~$1.40 for Hrbaty doesn't seem worth the risk.

Good luck with whatever plays you decide on
Betsy

[Kitch]

Thanks mate, yeah just read the write up.

Where do you get live scores from mate?

[Betsy]

Thanks mate, yeah just read the write up.

Where do you get live scores from mate?
This is probably the worst week of the season for getting live tennis scores. Doha, Chennai and Adelaide don't have any live scores on their sites so it makes it hard to follow matches as they take place. Your best bet is the Mens Tennis Forum, as some of these guys will call up the tournament box and ask for current scores. If they get their hands on any scores, they will generally be posted in that forum

http://www.menstennisforums.com/ - In the current tournament section there is normally a thread dedicated to scores

Other than that:

www.hopmancup.com.au (http://www.hopmancup.com.au) - All hopman cup matches have live scores updated point by point

www.tipex.sk/live.php (http://www.tipex.sk/live.php) - If there is a Doha match on TV this site will give point by point updates

[karla909]

Hi Betsy

Looks like we are getting some nice interaction this year. That will be great. I use www livescore.com for getting scores. It only puts them up by game and can be slow, but it has the advantage of putting up all the days matches early so you know who is playing. It also has the WTA and ice hockey scores which are of interest to me. It also loads quite quickly.

Off to a good start with 3 straight set winners in Youzhny, Tursanov and Ascione overnight.

Only 1 pick for tonight at Doha.

I will be on Davydenko bt Volandri $1.17 for 1 unit.

This is a database bet. The database is now 222 wins v 53 losses since January 2003 for an ROI of 7.6%. Davydenko qualifies in 2 subsets which are 47-13 (9.5%) and 50-8 (5%). After the Aussie open starts this would be a 2.5 unit bet but because it is the start of the season and the lousy odds, 1 unit will suffice. If you have qualms about taking low prices then give it a miss.

Volandri is a very gutsy player who chases everything. Unfortunatly for him, hard courts are not his forte. Last year he went 0-9 losing to all 4 seeds he met. He gets to the q/f here by beating 2 very ordinary hard court players Mahut and Starace who went 2-13 on hard in 2005. Davydenko is not the greatest hard court player but is a class above and did reach the s/f here last year losing to Federer. So he must like the conditions.

Federer is also a database selection but at $1.04 is a no bet.

Good punting
karla

[Betsy]

I will be on Davydenko bt Volandri $1.17 for 1 unit.
I was looking at that one this morning, looks solid. You can get $1.20 at Pinnacle at the moment. Still tossing up whether to play this or not.

**Just rang the Adelaide Int media room and Berdych leads 7-6 2-2

[karla909]

Betsy

AT Pinnacle, how did you get the money to them. I am reluctant to send pictures of a credit card. Be grateful for a response.

Really hope Betfair in Tassie gets going.

K

[Betsy]

I think I chose the worst option to send money to Pinnacle. I sent a 'Wire Transfer' (I think thats what they call it). It just involved going to the bank and getting them to send money from an account into Pinnacles account, however, it wasn't as easy as it sounds. Not only did the transaction get rejected twice, it also cost $35 just to send the money that way.

You'll find that Pinnacle is a reputable bookie, possibly the best I've ever dealt with in terms of customer service. They also have the best odds going round by a country mile.

SCORE UPDATE: 7-6 4-6 2*-1

[karla909]

Thanks mate

They also (I think) have a withdrawal fee. But the odds are always very good as you noted and over time they represent value. I will wait a bit and see if Betfair gets going soon as there having a government decision in February.

That Moodie fellow (imo) lives up to his name. Pulls lots of wins as a dog and crashes a lot also. AT least we don't have to put up with that Puerta sob anymore.

K

[Betsy]

Thanks mate

They also (I think) have a withdrawal fee. But the odds are always very good as you noted and over time they represent value. I will wait a bit and see if Betfair gets going soon as there having a government decision in February.

That Moodie fellow (imo) lives up to his name. Pulls lots of wins as a dog and crashes a lot also. AT least we don't have to put up with that Puerta sob anymore.

KIt might sound crazy, but I love Puerta. He was one of my biggest money makers for '05. However, he deserved everything he got.

I think we should create a discussion thread for ATP Tour '06. Theres always lots to talk about when it comes to tennis as there are so many players and tournaments. I think we should keep this thread for selections with writeups as it might start to take a while to sort through the thread to find selections. Thoughts?

[karla909]

Great idea.

I was going to report my results on a weekly basis. So maybe 1 thread for tips, 1 for discussion and 1 for results.
Leave it to you to organize.

K

[Betsy]

Tomas Berdych over Andy Murray @ $1.84

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

Last time the two met Berdych had a number of chances to win the match, and should have taken them. Berdych finished last year off well beating the likes of Ljubicic, Ferrero, Stepanek and Coria. If he carries that form to Australia then this should be an easy win for the Czech. Murray on the other hand only really had one good tournament on hc, making the final in Thailand where he was beaten by Federer. However, for the majority of last year Murray played Challengers and even some Futures. I don't believe he is at the level where he can consitantly beat quality players such as Berdych, however, that doesn't mean the Brits can't hype him up as the next big thing.

Sorry about the late notice, I took Berdych for 0.5 units at $1.84 when the market came out but was too tired to post a writeup. Match starts in 30 mins.
Tomas Berdych wins 7-6 4-6 6-1

[Kitch]

Had a bit on Berdych.

Good to see he had a strong third set :)

Anything else notable for tonight Betsy?

[Betsy]

Taylor Dent over Thomas Johansson @ $1.704

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.42 Units

Just putting the profit from Berdych's win over Murray into this one. Like last season, Dent has begun the season in great form, easily accounting for Djokovic and Schukin. In contrast Johansson, who has also played both Djokovic and Schukin, seemed to struggle. I think the fact that the match is indoors favours Dent more than Johansson. His serve and volley game seems to be firing on all cylinders at Burswood Dome. Johansson is also struggling with a foot problem and has been bed ridden for the last few days (whenever he's not on the practise court). Overall, going by their last two matches, I can't see Dent losing this one.

Good luck lads

[bobjoe66]

Hrbaty to beat Philippoussis @ 1.44

Hrbaty is a good all court player and should have too much for Philipoussis who has struggled for ages and only got past the 2nd round twice last year (i think). Hrbaty also beat him last year indoors and shouldn't have too many problems even against the Aussie crowd. I would have expected Hrbaty to be shorter then 1.44 hence why i've got on it.
Hrbaty won 3-6 6-4 6-1

Looks although despite losing the first set Hrbaty finished much the stronger.

[bobjoe66]

Tomas Berdych wins 7-6 4-6 6-1
Great pick Betsy.

Too late for me to get on Dent, not sure I would have the confidence to do so anyway. The time difference here is annoying at the moment.

Dent is *4-3 at the moment so looks like the people who choose it did well.

Nothing else takes me fancy today which frustrates me after Berdych and Hrbaty last night but i must learn to stay away if im not convinced by any bets!

[Betsy]

Taylor Dent over Thomas Johansson @ $1.704

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.42 Units

Just putting the profit from Berdych's win over Murray into this one. Like last season, Dent has begun the season in great form, easily accounting for Djokovic and Schukin. In contrast Johansson, who has also played both Djokovic and Schukin, seemed to struggle. I think the fact that the match is indoors favours Dent more than Johansson. His serve and volley game seems to be firing on all cylinders at Burswood Dome. Johansson is also struggling with a foot problem and has been bed ridden for the last few days (whenever he's not on the practise court). Overall, going by their last two matches, I can't see Dent losing this one.

Good luck lads
After being up a break in the first, Dent loses 7-6 2-6 6-3

As talked about earlier, considering playing Davydenko over Volandri

[Betsy]

Nikolay Davydenko over Fillipo Volandri @ $1.21

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1.5 Units

Not really much to write about here, karla summed it up well this morning. Davydenko is the superior player on this surface, and although Volandri has already had more wins on hardcourt in '06 than he did in '05 he poses no threat to Davydenko in my opinion. I see Davydenko winning this match 85% of the time, therefore $1.21 is value.

Good luck and Happy Punting

[maximo]

Poor Nikolai lost 6:3 6:4, it is lesson for future that Russians like to loose when odds are very low on them :) Do they have Betfair accounts? :)

[bobjoe66]

Looking at these 2 bets thats have taken my fancy what do you guys thinks?

Moya to beat Phau @ 1.36

Moya might not be the player he was but surely to can overcome a player who mainly plays on the Challenger tour and has had 2 easy matches to come these far.

Also looking at Ljubicic over Muller. Muller has had some good plays on hard courts in the past year or so but surely not enough to beat Ljubicic who seems to be one of the best players outside of grandslams especially on hard courts. Can't really got a solid price on betfair at the moment so will wait to see how the market pans out.
Volandri beating Davydenko is a horrible freak result that you can just never account for. Glad I was at work while the match took place otherwise I might have lost a bit on Davydenko.

[Betsy]

Nikolay Davydenko over Fillipo Volandri @ $1.21

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1.5 Units

Not really much to write about here, karla summed it up well this morning. Davydenko is the superior player on this surface, and although Volandri has already had more wins on hardcourt in '06 than he did in '05 he poses no threat to Davydenko in my opinion. I see Davydenko winning this match 85% of the time, therefore $1.21 is value.

Good luck and Happy PuntingDavydenko loses 6-3 6-4

Wow, didn't see that coming! I've learnt my lesson.

That cuts this weeks profit right down to +2.5 units.

I will post my plays if I come across any, todays card doesnt do much for me

[Betsy]

Jarkko Nieminen over Florent Serra @ $1.48

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

Not much time to give a write up however Nieminen is the superior player here. There is no questioning his form as he has had a tougher run to the QF, beating Mathieu and Mayer. Serra, although a claycourter, has posted a couple of good results on hard, but has lacked consistancy in his results. Although beating Robredo, Serra was getting beaten by Llodra before he retired. Nieminen is much better on hardcourt than both Robredo and Llodra and should prove too much for the Frenchman.

My only concern is the h2h record. Serra seems to have troubled Jarkko in the past, but this match is on hardcourt and I can't see Jarkko giving up this opportunity to make the semis

This is possibly the last play of the week

[maximo]

Betsy do you know score?

[maximo]

6:4 Serra and 4:2 Serra in second, so good night another lost

[karla909]

Very bad result with Volandri (0-9) on hard beating Davydenko (#5) in world.

I should have 4 selections today, but as the favs are going down this week, I will be a cautious and give today a miss.

Hate this first week anyway.

Good Luck to anyone having a go.

Karla

[Betsy]

6:4 Serra and 4:2 Serra in second, so good night another lostYou are one of many people to get sucked in by a fake score. Jarkko won the second set 7-6 and was never down a break.

Nevermind, Serra still went on to win 6-2 in the third.

I can't believe I've pulled a profit out of this garbage week of tennis

[maximo]

and they played 3rd set about 10 minutes? what a joke

[bobjoe66]

Going for 2 bets i mentioned earlier

Moya to beat Phau @ 1.36
Ljubicic to beat Muller @ 1.38

Suprised at the slightly better odds on Ljubicic even though he is playing a tougher match its hard to see anyone bar the top players troubling him on a hardcourt.

Hard luck on Niemenen, the strange results can't keep continuing for long.

[bobjoe66]

Going for 2 bets i mentioned earlier

Moya to beat Phau @ 1.36
Ljubicic to beat Muller @ 1.38

Suprised at the slightly better odds on Ljubicic even though he is playing a tougher match its hard to see anyone bar the top players troubling him on a hardcourt.

Hard luck on Niemenen, the strange results can't keep continuing for long.
C Moya d B Phau 64 46 61
I Ljubicic d G Muller 61 63

Moya just about made it and Ljubicic cruised.

This gives me confidence to get big on Ljubicic to beat Vliegen. Although Vliegen has good results this week and the capacity to cause a shock I cannot see Ljubicic losing this one. He was 8-1 in semis last year. I think he has about the same chance to win as Federer does against Monfils so it makes sense to take about 1.25 on Ljubicic rather then 1.06 on Federer which doesnt really offer any value. At the business end of a tournament i can't see Ljubicic losing and although Vliegen is dangerous it could be a lot harder for Ljubicic.

Haven't yet taken the bet waiting to see if i can improve on 1.25.

[bobjoe66]

Taken Ljubicic @ 1.23 Odds were shortening so got on before it got any shorter.

Anyone else feel this is a solid bet?

[maximo]

Ljuba should take this but strange result with schrichaphan today.

[Betsy]

Anyone else feel this is a solid bet?Betsy do you know score?Morning guys,

Just a reminder that we now have a DISCUSSION (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=12253) Thread for the selections posted in this thread. So could we please place any questions (like the ones above) in the Discussion: ATP Tour Thread (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=12253).

Cheers

[Betsy]

Ivan Ljubicic over Kristof Vliegen @ $1.23

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1 Unit

If you had asked me who Vliegen was prior to this tournament I wouldn't be able to tell you much. The 23 year old Belgian has come from nowhere to post numerous upsets this week, suprising many on his way to the SF. However, tonight he comes up against one of the best hardcourt players going around, Ivan Ljubicic. Theres not really much use going through Ivan's accomplishments during '05 as most who follow the tennis would already know the staggering performaces he executed throughout the season. Forget the fact that Ivan dropped a set against Vanek, they had been hitting together that week and Vanek may have become used to Ivan's style of play. It should be noted that the big serving Croat only lost one semifinal out of nine last year and I can't see him losing this one to the little known Belgian, Kristof Vliegen. Ljubicic in two.

Good luck

[bobjoe66]

Serra over Malisse @ 3.00

Just have a feeling this is an even match up and with the underdogs winning matches this week it has to make sense to take Serra at these odds. Malisse could out power him but there is a good chance as always with Malisse he could have a poor match or, if the match is tight he may crack under pressure. This is may about taking the value bet rather then being sure Serra will win.

[Betsy]

Florent Serra over Xavier Malisse @ $2.94

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.22 Units

All reasoning for this bet is in the discussion thread. Basically, Xavier's win over Berdych looks good on paper but was not as impressive as the scoreline suggests. The quality of the Hrbaty/Serra match was much higher than the Berdych/Malisse match, which ended with Berdych losing the plot (not Malisse winning the match). Serra has a much greater chance than the odds predict and I would say that Malisse should be no more than a 55-45 favourite here.

[Betsy]

Florent Serra over Xavier Malisse @ $2.94

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.22 Units

All reasoning for this bet is in the discussion thread. Basically, Xavier's win over Berdych looks good on paper but was not as impressive as the scoreline suggests. The quality of the Hrbaty/Serra match was much higher than the Berdych/Malisse match, which ended with Berdych losing the plot (not Malisse winning the match). Serra has a much greater chance than the odds predict and I would say that Malisse should be no more than a 55-45 favourite here.
Serra wins 6-3 6-4

[Betsy]

Ivan Ljubicic over Kristof Vliegen @ $1.23

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1 Unit

If you had asked me who Vliegen was prior to this tournament I wouldn't be able to tell you much. The 23 year old Belgian has come from nowhere to post numerous upsets this week, suprising many on his way to the SF. However, tonight he comes up against one of the best hardcourt players going around, Ivan Ljubicic. Theres not really much use going through Ivan's accomplishments during '05 as most who follow the tennis would already know the staggering performaces he executed throughout the season. Forget the fact that Ivan dropped a set against Vanek, they had been hitting together that week and Vanek may have become used to Ivan's style of play. It should be noted that the big serving Croat only lost one semifinal out of nine last year and I can't see him losing this one to the little known Belgian, Kristof Vliegen. Ljubicic in two.

Good luck
Ljubo won in three sets

[Betsy]

Week in Review – Week 1

Although not one of my better weeks on the punt, the first week of tennis action for the New Year ended up being a profitable one. There were fourteen bets in total this week and after starting the week with seven consecutive wins (+4.27 units), the profits began to dwindle as the week ended, finishing with ten wins and four losses and a profit of 2.68 units.

It was really only Davydenko’s unexpected loss to Volandri (who went 0-9 on hc last year) that turned a good betting week into a mediocre one. Overall, I am pleased with how the season has started, but there is definitely room for improvement as we move closer to the Australian Open.

ATP Tour '06 Betting Overview

Selections: 14
Won: 10
Lost: 4
SR: 71%
Staked: 17.42 Units
Return: 20.10 Units
Profit: +2.68 Units
ROI: 15.4%

Will be back later with plays for tomorrow

Good luck and Happy Punting
Betsy

[bobjoe66]

Brilliant result from Serra and Ljubicic. Vliegen is certainly one to look out for. Had huge 5 units on Ljubicic and 1.5 on Serra

Leaves me 6-1 in my first week of serious betting. 5.83 units up!

[Betsy]

Stanislas Wawrinka over Tomas Zib - $1.581

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

$1.60 is available at TAB NSW but I don't have an account with them

Tomas Zib has lost his last eight ATP Tour matches, with six of them being played on hardcourt. He hasn't won an ATP singles match since August 2005 and I can't see him breaking that streak today. Wawrinka is an up and coming player and at 20 years old is on the improve. In '05 Wawrinka posted the majority of his results on clay, however when he did venture onto hardcourt he showed some positive signs. With wins over Ferrero, Puerta, Serra and Grosjean all coming on hardcourt I'm surprised that he doesn't play more tennis on hard. Coming off a tough three set loss to Tommy Haas (7-5 in the third), Wawrinka should prove too much for the old Czech, who should post his ninth straight ATP tour loss before the days end.

Good luck and happy punting
Betsy

[bobjoe66]

Ferrero over Gucionne @ 1.31 (argh its 1.34 now) 1 unit

Should have started but its raining i hear. Hoping the superior player wins here and isn't too rusty. Might take 3 sets but i think Ferrero will pull through.

Good luck everyone.

[Betsy]

Stanislas Wawrinka over Tomas Zib - $1.581

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

$1.60 is available at TAB NSW but I don't have an account with them

Tomas Zib has lost his last eight ATP Tour matches, with six of them being played on hardcourt. He hasn't won an ATP singles match since August 2005 and I can't see him breaking that streak today. Wawrinka is an up and coming player and at 20 years old is on the improve. In '05 Wawrinka posted the majority of his results on clay, however when he did venture onto hardcourt he showed some positive signs. With wins over Ferrero, Puerta, Serra and Grosjean all coming on hardcourt I'm surprised that he doesn't play more tennis on hard. Coming off a tough three set loss to Tommy Haas (7-5 in the third), Wawrinka should prove too much for the old Czech, who should post his ninth straight ATP tour loss before the days end.

Good luck and happy punting
BetsyWawrinka wins 6-3 6-4

No more bets today

ATP Tour '06 Record

Week One: 10-4, +2.68 Units (ROI 15.4%)
Week Two: 2-0, +0.61 Units (ROI 61%)

YTD: 12-4, +3.28 Units (ROI 18%)

*Ljubicic's win was counted in week 2

[bobjoe66]

Ferrero over Gucionne @ 1.31 (argh its 1.34 now) 1 unit

Should have started but its raining i hear. Hoping the superior player wins here and isn't too rusty. Might take 3 sets but i think Ferrero will pull through.

Good luck everyone.
Gucionne won in 3. Ferrero must have been rusty.

Well done on Wawrinka, a much better bet!

[bobjoe66]

Acasuso over C Rochus @ 1.78

Discussed in the other thread, Acasuso should have too much power and shot making ability for C Rochus to trouble him.

Ferrer is into 1.3 so not gonna bother unless someone excepts my 1.38 but i doubt that will happen.

Edit: just got Moodie over Minar @ 1.64

Really only the good odds that took me here. Betsy's advice is more then often very good and I like Moodie to beat a player who has more then his fair share of first round loses.

Good luck guys hope to wake up to some good results!

[Betsy]

Wesley Moodie over Ivo Minar @ $1.602

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

Wesley Moodie really finished well last year on hardcourt. The big serving South African won his first ATP singles title in October, where he beat the likes of Ancic, Nieminen, Youzhny and Stepanek, who are all quality players on hardcourt. We can let him off the hook for his loss to Bjorkman in his last hardcourt match for '05 as this was one day after his breakthrough win in Japan. Since the Us Open Moodie is 8-3 on hard and has been making huge inroads on consolidating a place in the top 25.

Moodie comes up against a challenger level player in Ivo Minar. Minar, although playing out of his skin in Australia last year, finished off the year playing challengers. Since the US Open Minar has posted one win on hardcourt out of seven matches. As it is early in the season, I'd normally steer clear of a match where one player has played some Qualifiers to get into the main draw, as this extra match practise is very helpful. However, Minar struggled against third rate players while attempting to qualify and these results have only confirmed my thoughts on Minar's lackluster form.

My only concern was Moodie's shoulder problems, as he called for the trainer against Monfils where he lost 76 64. This may be the only reason Moodie is ~$1.60, otherwise I don't know why these odds are so generous.

Good luck lads

[Betsy]

Wesley Moodie over Ivo Minar @ $1.602

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

Wesley Moodie really finished well last year on hardcourt. The big serving South African won his first ATP singles title in October, where he beat the likes of Ancic, Nieminen, Youzhny and Stepanek, who are all quality players on hardcourt. We can let him off the hook for his loss to Bjorkman in his last hardcourt match for '05 as this was one day after his breakthrough win in Japan. Since the Us Open Moodie is 8-3 on hard and has been making huge inroads on consolidating a place in the top 25.

Moodie comes up against a challenger level player in Ivo Minar. Minar, although playing out of his skin in Australia last year, finished off the year playing challengers. Since the US Open Minar has posted one win on hardcourt out of seven matches. As it is early in the season, I'd normally steer clear of a match where one player has played some Qualifiers to get into the main draw, as this extra match practise is very helpful. However, Minar struggled against third rate players while attempting to qualify and these results have only confirmed my thoughts on Minar's lackluster form.

My only concern was Moodie's shoulder problems, as he called for the trainer against Monfils where he lost 76 64. This may be the only reason Moodie is ~$1.60, otherwise I don't know why these odds are so generous.

Good luck lads
Moodie retires at 2-1 in the first.

Bet is refunded

[Betsy]

Week Two: 2-0, +0.61 Units (ROI 61%)

James Blake over Carlos Moya @ $1.74

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

After a dissapointing start to the new year, James Blake comes up against the old Spaniard, Carlos Moya. Since August '05 Blake has accumulated a 22-4 win/loss record on hardcourt, beating the likes of Nadal, Berdych, Stepanek and Robredo. In contrast, other than his win in Chennai early last year, Moya had a lackluster year away from clay. He went 0-7 against players inside the top 25 last year on hardcourt and lost in the first round at this same tournament.

Both players faced capable first round opponents on their way to the 2nd round however I believe Blake had the tougher opponent of the two. Moya struggled to beat an out of form Grosjean, needing three sets to beat the Frenchman, whereas Blake outgunned Sanguinetti in two sets on Monday night. Blake should come into this matchup refreshed, after having Tuesday off. Conversely, Moya played until roughly 6.00pm local time today and now must get himself up for tomorrow mornings match (just flying in from India doesn't help either). Overall I see Blake getting this one in two sets, however, with the Australian Open being less than a week away we can never be sure of a players motivation, therefore I'm only going small on this matchup.

Good luck all
Betsy

[bobjoe66]

Acasuso over C Rochus @ 1.78

Discussed in the other thread, Acasuso should have too much power and shot making ability for C Rochus to trouble him.

Ferrer is into 1.3 so not gonna bother unless someone excepts my 1.38 but i doubt that will happen.

Edit: just got Moodie over Minar @ 1.64

Really only the good odds that took me here. Betsy's advice is more then often very good and I like Moodie to beat a player who has more then his fair share of first round loses.

Good luck guys hope to wake up to some good results!
Unbelievable set of results when i woke up this morning. I just knew Andreev would beat Gasquet and thought some of the other but why don't i ever have the confidence to go against the favourites?

I think Moya and Ferrer (the bet that was never taken) were the only favourites to win. So many upsets, but this is what i think happens on a week before Grandslam.

[bobjoe66]

O Rochus over Herynch @ 1.51

Rochus typcially does well at this time of year and cruised through his first round match. He leads the H2H 2-0 with beating Hernych at this tournament this last year 6-3 6-1 and Hernych has done nothing since to make me think he will change it this year. Motivation is always a question this week but Rochus doesn't seem the type to let this bother him.

Ferrer over Sluiter @ 1.58

Same reasons as the match yesterday, why is Ferrer so under rated he is Top 20? Maybe im just getting on because i was annoyed to miss out yesterday when i was convinced he would win. Head to head is 3-0 to Ferrer. I would have though Ferrer would be 1.40 at the best and is the type of player who eats up points in every event he plays to climb the rankings (like Davydenko)


Murray over Ancic @ 2.24

Suprised at the odds would have thought everyone would get on Murray in this country which always explains awful odds on Henman. Ancic has great potential but it failing to fulfil it really and 2.24 has to be good when it looks an even match at best...especially with Ancic in poor form.

Blake is 1.62 here, not going to take that!

Please give me better results tonight i'm 0-2 this week and down 3 units!

[karla909]

The first round of both Auckland and Sydney have provided plenty of upsets. Sydney lived up to its historical past as the 2nd worst venue for seeds in round 1 by losing 4 of 7. Round 2 for both Auckland & Sydney are average with 70% of seeds winning.

I am on the following today:
Blake bt Moya $1.62 - 1 unit
Davydenko bt Calleri $1.36 - 1 unit

These plays are against Moya and Calleri in age situations that are 215-81 5% and 171-68 20%.

Niemenen bt Goldstein -$1.28 - .5 unit
This play is against Goldstein and qualifies in a 171-68 20% age situation.

Ferrer bt Sluiter - $1.55 - .5 unit
Wawrinka bt A. Martin $1.57 .5 unit
These plays are against Sluiter and Martin in age/form decline situation which is 62-15 29%.

Hewitt bt Melzer - $1.22 - 1.5 units
Hewitt qualifies in a seeded player situation that is 391-67 8% and gets a bonus being seed 1 which qualifies him in a 204-33 11% situation. I haven't placed this as screwy huey is once again having stomach problems. I lost heaps on him in the past with his various ailments and am reluctant to send good money after bad. I will watch the news reports and if I do bet it will be with a place like Centrebet which refunds if the match doesn't get to a played out result.

See, most of us are on similiar plays so hope were all smiling at the end of the day.

Karla

[bobjoe66]

Ferrer over Sluiter @ 1.58

Same reasons as the match yesterday, why is Ferrer so under rated he is Top 20? Maybe im just getting on because i was annoyed to miss out yesterday when i was convinced he would win. Head to head is 3-0 to Ferrer. I would have though Ferrer would be 1.40 at the best and is the type of player who eats up points in every event he plays to climb the rankings (like Davydenko)


Easy 6-4 6-3 for Ferrer. Have no idea why he was 1.58, is Sluiter that much better the Luzzi he played yesterday. Can't complain! Would have gone bigger then 2 units if i hadn't been 0-2 for the week. That's 1-2 now lets hope Rochus and Murray make it 3-2

[Betsy]

Week Two: 2-0, +0.61 Units (ROI 61%)

James Blake over Carlos Moya @ $1.74

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

After a dissapointing start to the new year, James Blake comes up against the old Spaniard, Carlos Moya. Since August '05 Blake has accumulated a 22-4 win/loss record on hardcourt, beating the likes of Nadal, Berdych, Stepanek and Robredo. In contrast, other than his win in Chennai early last year, Moya had a lackluster year away from clay. He went 0-7 against players inside the top 25 last year on hardcourt and lost in the first round at this same tournament.

Both players faced capable first round opponents on their way to the 2nd round however I believe Blake had the tougher opponent of the two. Moya struggled to beat an out of form Grosjean, needing three sets to beat the Frenchman, whereas Blake outgunned Sanguinetti in two sets on Monday night. Blake should come into this matchup refreshed, after having Tuesday off. Conversely, Moya played until roughly 6.00pm local time today and now must get himself up for tomorrow mornings match (just flying in from India doesn't help either). Overall I see Blake getting this one in two sets, however, with the Australian Open being less than a week away we can never be sure of a players motivation, therefore I'm only going small on this matchup.

Good luck all
Betsy
Moya withdraws from Sydney International

Bet Void

That's the second time in two days

[Betsy]

James Blake over Arnaud Clement @ $1.364

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

Match Writeup (http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1193)

Good luck lads
Betsy

[bobjoe66]

O Rochus over Herynch @ 1.51



Ferrer over Sluiter @ 1.58


Murray over Ancic @ 2.24



Blake is 1.62 here, not going to take that!

Please give me better results tonight i'm 0-2 this week and down 3 units!
2 out of 3. Not bad just need to learn where to put my money as i always seem to put too much on the losers.

Im on Blake too Betsy

[karla909]

Hi everyone

A good day yesterday with all 5 selections getting up. I finally went with Hewitt as the tempreture dropped to a nice 25, they showed Huey on TV and the commentator said he looked fine and his price started to drop at Betfair.

That's one of the problems with presenting a system as sometimes I have to leave it to the last moment.

Betsy gave real good advice about not backing anything under $1.25. I agree. Because I follow a system where the value is in the system not in individual matches I do play the shorties but if you are a value punter, go with Betsy's advice.

Hewitt bt Seppi - $1.15. 2.5 units
Seppi got beat in q/f last week to a simialar player in Malisse 6-0 6-1 and I hope for this to be the case again. Hewitt qualifies as a database (DB) selection which is 222-54 (7.5%) and a subset which is 153-25 (10.3)%. He also quallifies in a situation based on seeding/form situation that is 391-67 (8%) and a subset which is 204-33 (11%). Seppi qualifis in a play against him based on his upset win against Blake and then bad effort against Malisse which is 66-3 (17.7%). A bad value bet but too many situations for me to ignore.

Blake bt Clement. $1.32 1.5 units
I'm on the Blake bandwagon as a DB bet. Blake also qualifies in the seeding/form situation that is 391-67 (8%).

couple more in a minute

[bobjoe66]

Hewitt bt Seppi - $1.15. 2.5 units
Seppi got beat in q/f last week to a simialar player in Malisse 6-0 6-1 and I hope for this to be the case again. Hewitt qualifies as a database (DB) selection which is 222-54 (7.5%) and a subset which is 153-25 (10.3)%. He also quallifies in a situation based on seeding/form situation that is 391-67 (8%) and a subset which is 204-33 (11%). Seppi qualifis in a play against him based on his upset win against Blake and then bad effort against Malisse which is 66-3 (17.7%). A bad value bet but too many situations for me to ignore.

Blake bt Clement. $1.32 1.5 units
I'm on the Blake bandwagon as a DB bet. Blake also qualifies in the seeding/form situation that is 391-67 (8%).

couple more in a minute
congratulations of 5/5 thats great. youve convinced me on hewitt. he is short but could be shorter he is 1.18 for me

[karla909]

..........continued

Sorry the missus wanted to read e-mails.

I don't think Blake's match will be that easy as Clement will always fight.

The next 2 selections are from my "dogs" situations. I didn't present these last year but will go ahead this year. They don't have a very high strike rate but because of the value produce a profit.

In Auckland the #1 and 2 seeds don't reach the final that often and this situation plays on that happening again. Where the DB percievs a fairly even situation on 2 seeds in q/f then go for an upset. The situation is 57-32 since January 2003 for a nice ROI of 19%.


O Rochus bt Ferrer $2.05 .5 unit. I have Ollie a 57% chance so their is a bit of value to go with the situation. He should be motivated to get to final again here.

M Ancic bt Gonzalez $2.38 .5 unit. On most hardcourts the line would be the other way around but in Auckland the south american clay men seem to have the advantage. I have these 2 dead even and seek comfort that Ancic has beaten Gonzo on clay. However Ancic will have to be in rythmn on serve and Gonzo will have to miss a lot of attempted winners. The price of Gonzalez is coming in so I haven't placed a bet yet hoping the price will go out a bit more for Mario.

There is a situation on Davydenko but I'll have to wait to see what the early game produces. In Sydney, the rain is clearing and should be a nice day with a top of 27.


good luck with your plays

Karla

[bobjoe66]

2 for me tonight

Hewitt to beat Seppi 1.18
Blake to beat Clement 1.33

Hoping to regain a bit on 2 matches that look certain winners, espeically Hewitt.

[Betsy]

James Blake over Arnaud Clement @ $1.364

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

Match Writeup (http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1193)

Good luck lads
BetsyBlake wins in three sets, 3-6 6-1 6-4

[Betsy]

Hey guys,

From now on I will be posting my ATP Tennis plays exclusively on the Triple Threat Sports Forum (http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/index.php)

http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/index.php

The owners of the site are extremely happy with my ATP Betting records and will more than likely place my selections in the Experts Area.

I urge you all to register/sign up at this forum, it is ever expanding and covers a wide variety of sports. All the posters are insightful and always more than willing to help. The quality of the cappers posting on this forum is second to none and I'd love to see you guys posting there.

Karla, I have spoken to the owners about your quality insights into ATP tennis and they are interested in seeing you posting your selections in the forum.

Thanks to all you guys who have made my time here an enjoyable one

I hope to see you at the Triple Threat Sports Forum, my username is Breaker.

ATP Tour Record '06: 13-4, +3.46 Units (ROI 18.31%, SR 76.5%)

Good luck and happy punting
Breaker

[Betsy]

Hey guys,

From now on I will be posting my ATP Tennis plays exclusively on the Triple Threat Sports Forum (http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/index.php)

http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/index.php

The owners of the site are extremely happy with my ATP Betting records and will more than likely place my selections in the Experts Area.

I urge you all to register/sign up at this forum, it is ever expanding and covers a wide variety of sports. All the posters are insightful and always more than willing to help. The quality of the cappers posting on this forum is second to none and I'd love to see you guys posting there.

Karla, I have spoken to the owners about your quality insights into ATP tennis and they are interested in seeing you posting your selections in the forum.

Thanks to all you guys who have made my time here an enjoyable one

I hope to see you at the Triple Threat Sports Forum, my username is Breaker.
__________________________________________________________

ATP Tour Record '06: 13-4, +3.46 Units (ROI 18.31%, SR 76.5%)
__________________________________________________________

Good luck and happy punting
Breaker
I forgot to add, if you sign up at the Triple Threat Forum could you please put my username (Breaker) in the referral section.

Cheers
Breaker

[bobjoe66]

O Rochus over Nieminen @ 1.83 (Bet365)

Rochus destroyed a top player is Ferrer dropping just the 2 games in 50mins. Nieminen is a talented, yet inconsistent player capable of troubling the best when they don't perform. Yet Rochus is clearly in form and his game isn't too dissimilar to Nieminen's but more consistent. Rochus got to the final last year and will want to better that this year and a 3-1 head to head in Rochus' favour with 2 on hard courts is yet another reason to back him. So 1.82 is a great bet for a fully motivated, consistent player against a more tempreamental player with the AUS Open around the corner.

Blake over Davydenko @ 1.82 Betfair

This match appeared a tight one to call, with most probably giving the advantage to Blake as he is slightly fresher having a walkover against Moya and is the slighty more explosive player with the capability to 'win' points rather then have his opponent 'lose' them. However, what makes this a solid bet is the 3-0 head to head in Blake's favour, all of which have been on hard courts (although all in the USA). Both had shock defeats last week, which is strange, especially for the ever consistent Davydenko who normally only looses to the top, elite players. On this form , Blake would appear to be one of them and should squeeze through this tight match.

[karla909]

Hi All

A good week going 8-0 before Mr "Blewitt" turned in one of the worse professional displays I have ever seen. Enough said. Very pleased to see the two "dogs" get up. Back to 0 for the week.

No plays for today

Good Luck - to you bobjoe.


Well betsy, very sad to see you leave the forum, good luck to you. I posted as an expert last year on "bettingadvice" and found it to be a unrewarding pain. Much rather talk to just a few nice people. Wait till you have a losing run and just watch the yanks get stuck into you.

I'll continue here and if there is no interest, go back to talking things over with the my dogs.

Karla

[Betsy]

Hi All

A good week going 8-0 before Mr "Blewitt" turned in one of the worse professional displays I have ever seen. Enough said. Very pleased to see the two "dogs" get up. Back to 0 for the week.

No plays for today

Good Luck - to you bobjoe.


Well betsy, very sad to see you leave the forum, good luck to you. I posted as an expert last year on "bettingadvice" and found it to be a unrewarding pain. Much rather talk to just a few nice people. Wait till you have a losing run and just watch the yanks get stuck into you.

I'll continue here and if there is no interest, go back to talking things over with the my dogs.

Karla
This forum isn't like that though, I'm stunned by the support you get even when you are losing. There is a no bashing policy so if anyone gives you any trouble they get warned and banned.

You don't have to post in the Experts Area, just the normal Tennis forum where I have been posting for the last few days. bobjoe, papyrus etc have made the journey over and seem to like the place, you should come too.

It's woth a look http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=24 :)

[karla909]

Thanks Betsy - I'll think it over

J Blake bt andreev - $1.40 1.5 units

Blake qualifies as a database pick which is 223-55 (7.0%) and qualifies in a seed/final situation which is 391-67 (8%) and is a nice 21-2 in finals. Blake has had 3 hard court final appearances recently for 1 win which was in Stolkholm at the end of 2005. For Andreev he is in his first hard court final. Blake has won his last 2 against Andreev in straight sets including the US Open in 2005

J Niemenen bt Ancic - $ 2.70 .5 unit
I have these 2 about equal and in this situation we go with the dog. This is the same situation that picked Ancic and Rochus earlier in the week and is now 59-32 for 20% ROI. The situation is also 9-2 in finals.
Niemenen has had no finals experience on hard court while Ancic strangely enough has lost both his hardcourt finals since 2003. Ancic lost to Arthurs and Moodie in 2005 both at $1.33. Niemenen beat Ancic at their only meeting but that was on clay. Lots to suggest that Ancic can lose this.

k

[karla909]

Decided to join Betsy at triple.


See you all over there.

K

[Betsy]

Hey guys,

Since registering with the Triple Threat Sport Forum I have been able to establish an ATP room all to myself. It can be found at the following address: http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=59

It would be great to see you guys join in over there, registration is free, and the forum itself contains some of the best punters across the net, covering a wide variety of sports.

My current ATP record is listed below:



** 2006 **


ATP Tennis Record: 37-10, +7.41 Units (ROI 21.74%, SR 78%)


Staked: 34.10 Units
Return: 41.51 Units
Profit: +7.41 Units
Selections: 47
Avg Odds: $1.73
Strike Rate: 78%
Longest Streak: 11 Wins
Last 20 Bets: 17-3


Weekly Breakdown

Week One: 10-4, +2.68 Units
Week Two: 3-1, +0.28 Units
Week Three: 4-2, +0.70 Units
Week Four: 2-0, +0.42 Units
Week Five: 0-0, +0.00 Units
Week Six: 2-0, +0.47 Units
Week Seven: 9-1, +1.84 Units
Week Eight: 3-1, +0.21 Units
Week Nine: 0-0, +0.00 Units
Week Ten: 3-1, +0.64 Units
Week Eleven: 1-0, +0.12 Units


Flat Stakes Record: 37-10, +34.40% ROI



Hope to see you there!


http://www.triplethreatsports777.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2745

[Betsy]

Hey guys - thought I'd come back to where the year began and update my year-to-date record and inform you of my relocation.

My current record is as follows:


ATP Betting Record 2006: 56-17, +11.40 Units (ROI +25.0%)

Wimbledon '06 Record: 7-1, +1.90 Units (ROI 49%)


I am currently posting primarily at Blogabet (http://betsy.blogabet.com) and TripleThreatSports777 as an e***** ATP Tennis punter. Feel free to join me at either location and share some thoughts etc about the current ATP season

Cheers
Breaker