2006 RATINGS

[Sportz]

Okay, I've been experimenting with something for a little while now, compiling a list of class ratings for horses racing in Australia. I guess it's similar to what they have in PPM if any of you have seen that. It's a combination of the very best horses in Australia and some others that I think could be winning in the next few weeks. I'll be updating the list before every major meeting, and using the ratings as a guide to racing on major metropolitan meetings. I've come up with some betting plans for using on the ratings and we'll see how they go. Today's list and details of the betting plans can be found in the attached file at the bottom of this post. Take a look.

Now, here are today's rated runners:

HORSE ________________ CLS. _____ WT. _____ DISTANCES/TRK _____ BEST DIST/TRK

BE DELICIOUS _________ 48.5 _____ 100 _____ 1100-1650 G-S _____ 1400-1650 G-D
COFFEESHOPRUMOURS ____ 46.0 _____ 104 _____ 1000-1550 G-S _____ 1200-1350 G-S
DIAMOND JAKE _________ 51.0 _____ 109 _____ 1600-2850 G-S _____ 2100-2850 G-S
EL MAN GOSS __________ 48.0 _____ 106 _____ 1000-1250 G-H _____ 1000-1150 G-H
EXPUNGE ______________ 52.0 _____ 110 _____ 1600-2850 G-H _____ 1800-2850 G-S
FLYING PEGASUS _______ 52.0 _____ 106 _____ 1000-1350 G-S _____ 1000-1250 G-D
FUMBLE _______________ 51.5 _____ 107 _____ 1000-1450 G-D _____ 1100-1250 G
GENEBEL ______________ 50.5 _____ 106 _____ 1600-2850 G-S _____ 2100-2850 G-D
MAXERELLE ____________ 49.5 _____ 105 _____ 1000-1650 G-H _____ 1000-1450 G-D
NYAVIREZI ____________ 49.5 _____ 105 _____ 1000-1250 G-S _____ 1000-1150 G-D
RA SUN _______________ 52.0 _____ 110 _____ 1000-1250 G-H _____ 1000-1150 G-H
ROKOCOKO _____________ 47.0 _____ 105 _____ 1200-1650 G-S _____ 1300-1650 G-S
SEUL AMOUR ___________ 49.0 _____ 107 _____ 1400-2550 G-S _____ 1800-2250 G-S
SNAPPY TOM ___________ 49.0 _____ 107 _____ 1000-1250 G-H _____ 1000-1150 G-S
SORENSTAM ____________ 50.5 _____ 106 _____ 1000-1650 G-H _____ 1000-1450 D-H
TOMMIFRANCS __________ 52.0 _____ 110 _____ 1400-2550 G-H _____ 1800-2550 G-H
VANQUISHED ___________ 51.0 _____ 109 _____ 1600-2550 G-D _____ 1800-2550 G
WATCHYERBACK _________ 52.0 _____ 110 _____ 1000-1450 G-S _____ 1000-1250 G-S
WILLIE COMMAND _______ 46.0 _____ 104 _____ 1600-2550 G-S _____ 1800-2250 G-S

[Sportz]

Todays selections from the major plans:

Plan 1:
Flem R1 - 1 Be Delicious
Flem R3 - 5 Rokocoko
Flem R4 - 1 El Man Goss
Flem R6 - 3 Expunge & 4 Tommifrancs
Flem R7 - 6 Ra Sun & 7 Watchyerback
Flem R8 - 1 Willie Command
Flem R9 - 3 Sorenstam
Rand R5 - 1 Vanquished
Rand R6 - 1 Presently & 8 Flying Pegasus

Plan 2:
Flem R1 - 1 Be Delicious
Flem R3 - 5 Rokocoko
Flem R4 - 1 El Man Goss
Flem R6 - 4 Tommifrancs
Flem R7 - 7 Watchyerback
Flem R8 - 1 Willie Command
Rand R5 - 3 Seul Amour
Rand R6 - 7 Fumble

Plan 3:
Flem R1 - 1 Be Delicious
Flem R3 - 5 Rokocoko
Flem R4 - 1 El Man Goss
Flem R6 - 4 Tommifrancs
Flem R7 - 7 Watchyerback
Flem R8 - 1 Willie Command
Rand R5 - 3 Seul Amour
Rand R6 - 7 Fumble

Other plans' selections

Plan 6:
Flem R3 - 6 Coffeeshoprumours
Flem R6 - 4 Tommifrancs & 12 Genebel

Plan 7:
Flem R1 - 1 Be Delicious
Flem R3 - 6 Coffeeshoprumours
Flem R4 - 1 El Man Goss
Flem R6 - 4 Tommifrancs
Flem R7 - 12 Snappy Tom
Rand R5 - 1 Vanquished
Rand R6 - 13 Nyavirezi

Plan 8:
Flem R4 - 1 El Man Goss
Flem R6 - 3 Expunge
Rand R5 - 1 Vanquished

[Sportz]

Sorry. A couple of errors with horses on the first file attachment. Here's an updated correct version.

[Sportz]

Hmmm, I must admit I was worried about Race 3 in Melbourne. Not good. :(

These ratings are a work in progress and I'll monitor them as I go and keep trying to tighten them up. I think I was too lenient today and included a few runners that are lacking in class. Rokocoko and Coffeeshoprumours were the last 2 horses I included in the ratings today and obviously, I should have left them alone. I think it will pay to be wary of those runners with low class ratings (around 45-47). I might have to delete those in future and only include runners with class ratings of 48 or more.

[Sportz]

Worried about Honalee in R7 in Melbourne now that the track's dried out.

[Sportz]

Just as I thought.

[Sportz]

I think it will pay to be wary of those runners with low class ratings (around 45-47). I might have to delete those in future and only include runners with class ratings of 48 or more.

Yep. Good idea. :o

[Sportz]

I made an omission from my earlier post. Sorenstam was a selection for Plan 2 as well as Plan 1. These were the results from today, using Unitab divs:

Plan 1:
Flem R1 - 1 Be Delicious $1.70
Flem R3 - 5 Rokocoko
Flem R4 - 1 El Man Goss $3.40/$1.70
Flem R6 - 3 Expunge & 4 Tommifrancs $2.30/$1.50
Flem R7 - 6 Ra Sun & 7 Watchyerback
Flem R8 - 1 Willie Command
Flem R9 - 3 Sorenstam $2.40/$1.10
Rand R5 - 1 Vanquished $3.10/$1.80
Rand R6 - 1 Presently & 8 Flying Pegasus
Out 18 units, In 23.5 units

Plan 2:
Flem R1 - 1 Be Delicious $1.70
Flem R3 - 5 Rokocoko
Flem R4 - 1 El Man Goss $3.40/$1.70
Flem R6 - 4 Tommifrancs $2.30/$1.50
Flem R7 - 7 Watchyerback
Flem R8 - 1 Willie Command
Flem R9 - 3 Sorenstam $2.40/$1.10
Rand R5 - 3 Seul Amour
Rand R6 - 7 Fumble
Out 18 units, In 19.6 units

Plan 3:
Flem R1 - 1 Be Delicious $1.70
Flem R3 - 5 Rokocoko
Flem R4 - 1 El Man Goss $3.40/$1.70
Flem R6 - 4 Tommifrancs $2.30/$1.50
Flem R7 - 7 Watchyerback
Flem R8 - 1 Willie Command
Rand R5 - 3 Seul Amour
Rand R6 - 7 Fumble
Out 16 units, In 14.8 units

Plan 6:
Flem R3 - 6 Coffeeshoprumours
Flem R6 - 4 Tommifrancs $2.30/$1.50 & 12 Genebel
Out 2 units, In 1.15 units

Plan 7:
Flem R1 - 1 Be Delicious $1.70
Flem R3 - 6 Coffeeshoprumours
Flem R4 - 1 El Man Goss $3.40/$1.70
Flem R6 - 4 Tommifrancs $2.30/$1.50
Flem R7 - 12 Snappy Tom
Rand R5 - 1 Vanquished $3.10/$1.80
Rand R6 - 13 Nyavirezi
Out 7 units, In 10.5 units

Plan 8:
Flem R4 - 1 El Man Goss $3.40/$1.70
Flem R6 - 3 Expunge
Rand R5 - 1 Vanquished $3.10/$1.80
Out 3 units, In 6.5 units

Total: Out 64 units, In 76.05 units

Not too bad I guess. If I hadn't been quite so lenient and included those 3 lower rated runners today, I would have made a handy profit with all of the plans.

[DR RON]

Around 23% pot better than bank interest

[Sportz]

Actually Doc, it's only about 19%. But still okay for the first day.

[xptdriver]

well done Sportz.... hope it stand up for ya... :)

[Sportz]

Plan 7:
Flem R1 - 1 Be Delicious $1.70
Flem R3 - 6 Coffeeshoprumours
Flem R4 - 1 El Man Goss $3.40/$1.70
Flem R6 - 4 Tommifrancs $2.30/$1.50
Flem R7 - 12 Snappy Tom
Rand R5 - 1 Vanquished $3.10/$1.80
Rand R6 - 13 Nyavirezi
Out 7 units, In 10.5 units


Just had a look back at Monday and technically Honalee could have been the Plan 7 selection in Flem R7 as the track was rated good by that stage. Can't claim it though as I worked out all the selections before R1 when the track was dead. One of the pitfalls of working on something like this where horses are rated for certain track conditions.

[Sportz]

Saturday Jan 7

Today's rated runners:

DOOM R7 - 3 PRECISE TIMING, 11 HIGH ACADEMY, 17 ZAUBEREI
RAND R4 - 1 OUR MYSTIQUE
RAND R5 - 1 FOX LAKE, 2 PRIMA NOCTE
RAND R8 - 1 SNOWDEN
SAND R5 - 2 SPARK OF LIFE, 3 LIVE IN VAIN, 5 MURRAY DOWNS
SAND R6 - 10 KING'S CHAMP
MORP R7 - 5 TALONS SHOWN

Check out the updated list on the attachment.

[Sportz]

This week's selections:

Plan 1:
Doom R7 - 3 Precise Timing
Rand R4 - 1 Old Mystique
Rand R5 - 1 Fox Lake
Rand R8 - 1 Snowden
Sand R5 - 2 Spark Of Life
Sand R6 - 10 King's Champ
Morp R7 - 5 Talons Shown

Plan 2:
Doom R7 - 3 Precise Timing
Rand R4 - 1 Old Mystique
Rand R5 - 1 Fox Lake & 2 Prima Nocte
Rand R8 - 1 Snowden
Sand R5 - 2 Spark Of Life
Sand R6 - 10 King's Champ
Morp R7 - 5 Talons Shown

Plan 3:
Doom R7 - 17 Zauberei
Rand R4 - 1 Old Mystique
Rand R5 - 1 Fox Lake & 2 Prima Nocte
Rand R8 - 1 Snowden
Sand R5 - 5 Murray Downs
Sand R6 - 10 King's Champ
Morp R7 - 5 Talons Shown

Plan 7:
Doom R7 - 11 High Academy
Rand R4 - 1 Old Mystique
Rand R5 - 1 Fox Lake
Rand R8 - 1 Snowden
Sand R5 - 5 Murray Downs
Sand R6 - 10 King's Champ
Morp R7 - 5 Talons Shown

Plan 8:
Rand R4 - 1 Old Mystique
Rand R5 - 1 Fox Lake
Rand R8 - 1 Snowden

Don't know how we'll go today. Could be a feast or a famine. Nervous about a couple of them. :o

[Sportz]

Don't know how we'll go today. Could be a feast or a famine. Nervous about a couple of them. :o

Looks like a famine. Old Mystique was one of the ones I was nervous about. Very disappointing!!! :(

And for some reason, I just had a bad feeling about the Rubiton today. Sorry.

[Sportz]

Beginning to think this experiment won't last very long. :(

Personally, I managed to back Mystical Ring in Sydney and also had the quinella, any2, exacta, trifecta, everything. BUT that doesn't do anything to help you guys out as I didn't have it included in these ratings. The results so far today are very embarassing.

[luv2bet]

Rome wasnt built in a day sportz.........
Im sure it will come good for ya!

[Sportz]

Hope so. :o

As long as I can sort of keep my head above water early, I think I should be able to get the hang of things and end up in the black. This method was going along very nicely for the month or so I was testing it before I started posting. But of course there was no pressure on then!!! :)

[Sportz]

I'll just have to write this off as one of those days.

[Sportz]

Results

Today
Plan 1: Out 14 units, In 9 units
Plan 2: Out 14 units, In 9 units
Plan 3: Out 14 units, In 9 units
Plan 7: Out 7 units, In 4.5 units
Plan 8: Out 3 units, In 1.7 units
Total: Out 52 units, In 33.2 units

Update
Plan 1: Out 32 units, In 32.5 units
Plan 2: Out 32 units, In 28.6 units
Plan 3: Out 30 units, In 23.8 units
Plan 6: Out 2 units, In 1.15 units
Plan 7: Out 14 units, In 15 units
Plan 8: Out 6 units, In 8.2 units
Total: Out 116 units, In 109.25 units

Well, considering I thought it was a real shocker of a day today, I guess we're not actually travelling too bad.

Think I've worked out where I made mistakes and I'm hopeful of improving the performance of the ratings in future.

[Duritz]

Sportz - not to discredit, b/c ratings are a hard business to perfect, but a word of advice: perfect the method of rating prior to perfecting the method of punting.

There are some errors, unfortunately. Examples -

Lad of the Manor (118) outrates Lotteria (114).

Lad of the Manor outrates Spark of Life (116) and Takeover Target (116) (two best sprinters in country)

Xcellent (117) outrates those sprinters and Lotteria.

Leica Falcon rates the same as TTarget and SOfLife????????

Desert War only rates 112.

Zipping rates 114.

Sur Dex (113) outrates Desert War (112)

Railings (115) rates inferior to Leica Falcon (116) even though Railings is a multiple G1 winner, Leica Falcon's best win a G3, the time they met Railings beat Leica Falcon, carrying more weight. That one needs serious examination.

As I said - not trying to discredit, but work these out properly, or else like the house built on bad foundations, all else will fail.

Good luck, it's a long journey.

[Sportz]

Duritz,

You are simply looking at the horses' overall records, whereas my ratings are a combination of things:
(a) My personal opinion of the ability of the horse,
(b) It's previous record,
(c) It's current record,
(d) It's ability to win it's upcoming race.

If I simply rated them on their overall records, I would probably agree with most of your examples of 'errors', but I don't. For example, 75% of horses on the list are currently spelling, so their next run will be their first-up run, and a fair part of the rating is based on how I expect them to go in their next run.

So, I'll go through your examples:

Lad Of The Manor is a top horse, but more importantly, he's a terrific first-up & second-up horse, so I've basically given him a bonus for that. (2 other good examples are Red Oog and Confectioner, both terrific first-up horses. I've rated them both about 2-3 kgs higher than I'd rate them later in their campaigns.) So that's why I have Lad Of The Manor rated so highly. I agree Lotteria could possibly be rated slightly higher than she is though, because she also has a 100% first-up record. I may reassess her rating when it comes time for her first-up start.

Xcellent's rating is based on dry tracks (if it's a wet track, he simply won't qualify) and also races over middle distances to staying events. He is unlikely to race in Australia early in his campaign anyway (if at all), so he won't be racing against horses like Takeover Target, Spark Of Life etc.

The same applies to Leica Falcon. His rating is based on how I think he'll go in longer races. He simply won't be racing against the top sprinters you mentioned as he only qualifies from 1400 on. I think he'll have a terrific year and be highly competitive in anything from 1400-3200. Railings, by comparison, needs 1600m and he doesn't go well first-up, so that's why I've rated him inferior at this stage. He DOES however have a terrific 2nd-up record, so when it comes time for his 2nd-up run, I will probably raise his rating.

A similar story with Desert War. 4 previous first-up runs for just 2 thirds. And he's never won at less than 1600m. That's why I've rated him about 2-3 kgs lower than I would have him later in his campaign. Meanwhile, Sir Dex has quite a good first-up record and has won at shorter distances, so I think it's reasonable to have him rated ahead of Desert War, based on how they should go at their next runs.

Zipping's high rating is just my personal opinion. On his previous record, he probably only deserves to be rated at 53(111), but I just think he's highly promising. The same applies to a few other up and coming horses which I've rated higher than you might expect. (ie. Leica Falcon)

Hope that explains everything. I'm reasonably confident with how I've rated the top horses. At the moment, I think my biggest mistake has been being too lenient and including too many horses with insufficient class. But I think things will improve when the quality of the racing increases.

[Duritz]

Oh so these ratings are for where they are right now, ie if they're spelling, where they'll be first up. I thought they were like say the timeform ratings or the world-ranking ratings or the expert form ratings - what their peak is.

Apologies, however I think in that case you may be taking six steps when one was all that was needed. I'll be interested to see how it evolves.

PS - Leica Falcon, Xcellent etc not running against Takeover Target and Spark of Life doesn't mean the ratings shouldn't be comparable. The ratings should cut across boundaries like distance so you can compare sprinters and two milers and say - which was better, based on what they did at their distance?

[Sportz]

Saturday Jan 14

Today's rated runners:

GCST R3 - 1 HAVANA WIND, 3 WILLY LEICA
GCST R4 - 2 DECIBEEL, 3 PERMISSIVE, 4 COINCIDENTAL
GCST R5 - 13 FASHIONS AFIELD, 14 PINEZERO
GCST R6 - 1 COOL FRONT, 2 DEUXIEME, 3 AMEX, 4 MITANNI, 5 FUMBLE
GCST R8 - 1 ALL BAR ONE, 4 COVET THEE, 5 ALGORITHM
CANT R8 - 5 SMART MAXIE
SAND R4 - 1 TOULOUSE LAUTREC, 2 CANDY VALE
SAND R5 - 1 FOREST SPY, 5 GIBERNAU

[Sportz]

Today's selections:

Plan 1
GCst R3 - 1 Havana Wind & 3 Willy Leica
GCst R4 - 3 Permissive & 4 Coincidental
GCst R5 - 13 Fashions Afield
GCst R6 - 1 Cool Front
GCst R8 - 1 All Bar One
Cant R8 - 5 Smart Maxie
Sand R4 - 1 Toulouse Lautrec
Sand R5 - 1 Forest Spy

Plan 2
GCst R3 - 3 Willy Leica
GCst R4 - 4 Coincidental
GCst R5 - 13 Fashions Afield
GCst R6 - 3 Amex & 4 Mitanni
GCst R8 - 1 All Bar One
Cant R8 - 5 Smart Maxie
Sand R4 - 2 Candy Vale
Sand R5 - 1 Forest Spy & 5 Gibernau

Plan 3
GCst R3 - 3 Willy Leica
GCst R4 - 4 Coincidental
GCst R5 - 13 Fashions Afield
GCst R6 - 3 Amex
GCst R8 - 5 Algorithm
Cant R8 - 5 Smart Maxie
Sand R5 - 1 Forest Spy & 5 Gibernau

Plan 5
GCst R6 - 2 Deuxieme

Plan 6
GCst R4 - 2 Decibeel & 4 Coincidental
Sand R5 - 5 Gibernau

Plan 7
GCst R3 - 1 Havana Wind
GCst R4 - 2 Decibeel
GCst R5 - 13 Fashions Afield
GCst R6 - 1 Cool Front
GCst R8 - 5 Algorithm
Cant R8 - 5 Smart Maxie
Sand R5 - 1 Forest Spy

Plan 8
GCst R3 - 3 Willy Leica
GCst R5 - 13 Fashions Afield
Cant R8 - 5 Smart Maxie
Sand R5 - 1 Forest Spy

[Sportz]

Gave consideration to including Tereschenko in the ratings this week and it would have been a selection for plan 7. Damn!

[Sportz]

I should have ignored the Magic Millions meeting on the Gold Coast. I certainly will be in future. Year after year, there are just too many weird results!!!

[xptdriver]

Gave consideration to including Tereschenko in the ratings this week and it would have been a selection for plan 7. Damn!

Had him on top... not damn at all :)

[xptdriver]

I should have ignored the Magic Millions meeting on the Gold Coast. I certainly will be in future. Year after year, there are just too many weird results!!!

Gday Sportz...

I dunno about that....as they say u can't win em all... but the Coast was ok today.. struck a couple of winners on top thru the day so It was a good result for me. There were a couple of longies get up.. but it wouldn't be a feature day without the long shots coming up now n then

In the MM they hyped Churchill Downs and he may have been unlucky, missed that start according to the caller... I liked the horse that ran 3rd at big odds... I couldn't find Singo's runner tho.. you would have to be good to find that one :)

[Sportz]

Yeah, I noticed you had Tereschenko on top. Well done. :)

I'm just mad at myself for not including it in the ratings list this week. Oh well, never mind. Live and learn.

A day like this with roughies getting up tends to suit you more than me.

[Sportz]

Another TERRIBLE day!!! :(

[Sportz]

Results

Today
Plan 1: Out 16 units, In 8.3 units
Plan 2: Out 16 units, In 12.3 units
Plan 3: Out 14 units, In 8.5 units
Plan 5: Out 1 unit, In 0 units
Plan 6: Out 2 units, In 1.45 units
Plan 7: Out 7 units, In 2.7 units
Plan 8: Out 4 units, In 2.7 units
Total: Out 60 units, In 35.95 units

Update
Plan 1: Out 48 units, In 40.8 units
Plan 2: Out 48 units, In 40.9 units
Plan 3: Out 44 units, In 32.3 units
Plan 5: Out 1 unit, In 0 units
Plan 6: Out 4 units, In 2.6 units
Plan 7: Out 21 units, In 17.7 units
Plan 8: Out 10 units, In 10.9 units
Total: Out 176 units, In 145.2 units

Hmmm, not good at all, but I'm not going to give up yet.

[rabbitz]

Gday Sportz...

I dunno about that....as they say u can't win em all... but the Coast was ok today.. struck a couple of winners on top thru the day so It was a good result for me. There were a couple of longies get up.. but it wouldn't be a feature day without the long shots coming up now n then

In the MM they hyped Churchill Downs and he may have been unlucky, missed that start according to the caller... I liked the horse that ran 3rd at big odds... I couldn't find Singo's runner tho.. you would have to be good to find that one :)

i must have been the only one $2X $2 on Mirror Mirror and Tantra and $10 win Churchill downs,so $18 0ut round $111 in .not bad i spose
a couple of other small exactas and the odd winner here and there,good day overall
cheers

[Sportz]

Well done Rabz.

[Sportz]

Bugger!!! I just realised that I missed posting a selection today. Plan 4 had it's first selection for the year: Sand R5 - 1 Forest Spy

So, that makes the results look a tiny bit more respectable:

Plan 4: Out 2 units, In 5.4 units

Today: Out 62 units, In 41.35 units

Total: Out 178 units, In 150.6 units

Still not good, but it's given me a few ideas on how to improve things.

[Sportz]

Saturday Jan 21

Today's rated runners:

RAND R6 - 1 Fox Lake
SAND R3 - 1 Danerich

Not a lot of action today as I've decided to be a lot more strict with the horses I include in the ratings. Also thinking of making a couple of changes to the betting plans, but I will keep them as they are until February.

Wary of both runners today, but here's hoping. :o

[Sportz]

Selections

Plan 1
Rand R6 - 1 Fox Lake
Sand R3 - 1 Danerich

Plan 2
Rand R6 - 1 Fox Lake
Sand R3 - 1 Danerich

That's it.

[TheAvenger]

Thanks, Sportz.


Glenn

[Sportz]

I knew it.

Odds on, look on.

[Sportz]

As I mentioned on the Tips thread, I don't think I'll be continuing with this idea any more. Another shocking day today.