TAB No.1

[michaelg]

Just out of interest from Sunday 1 Jan I looked at TAB no.1 where there is a 'b' and secondly, a 'c' against its name. The only filter I used was to delete the 'b' selections if it was returning from a spell, and for 'c' selections if it was having its second run from a spell. The results are quite encouraging even with NSW TAB divvies. At a quick glance it seems the country meetings have a better strike rate, but with only a handful of races it is impossible to say if this is really the case.

'b' System (beaten fave at last start)
20 selections for 9 winners returning a total of $27.00.
19 selections (one race was no-place betting) for 13 placegetters returning a total of $20.30.

'c' System (won at today's distance at today's track)
17 selections for 8 winners returning a total of $28.50
17 selections for 11 placegetters returning a total of $20.10

If anyone is interested, today's selections are:
'b' System.

Randwick R5 no.1 - Fox Lake
Sandown R2 no.1 - I command
Sandown R7 no.3 - Shades of Laughter
Dombeen R6 no.1 - Daunting Lad
Morphetville R4 no.1 - Grace and Power.
Gold Coast R6 no.1 - Helter Skelter
Toowoomba R2 no.1 - Clever Cat
Ascot R7 no.1 - King Wally

'c' System
Randwick R4 no.1 - Old Mystique
Randwick R6 no.1 - Turaga
Dombeen R6 no.1 - Daunting Lad
Gold Coast R6 no.1 - Helter Skelter
Ascot R2 no.1 - Idyllic Prince
Ascot R3 no.1 - He's Smoking

Hopefully it won't crash today.

[Surround]

Ran your B system from June 2004 to 2/1 2006.
Selections = 3189 all meetings
Win POT loss 26.2%
Place POT loss 19.7%

By the way, Fox Lake doesn't meet your B requirement of no 1st uppers.
Below is what I thought met your systems today.
Hope I'm right.

B SYSTEM

7/01/2006 12:30 Sandown Lakesi 2 1 I Command **
7/01/2006 2:02: Morphettville 4 1 Grace And Power **
7/01/2006 3:50: Sandown Lakesi 7 1 Shades Of Laughter **
7/01/2006 4:14: Gold Coast 6 1 Helter Skelter **
7/01/2006 4:27: Toowoomba 2 1 Clever Cat **
7/01/2006 5:15: Fannie Bay 2 1 Tonsawine **
7/01/2006 6:37: Ascot 7 1 King Wally **

C SYSTEM
7/01/2006 2:10: Randwick 4 1 Old Mystique CS
7/01/2006 3:25: Ascot 2 1 Idyllic Prince CS
7/01/2006 3:30: Randwick 6 1 Turaga CS
7/01/2006 3:41: Doomben 6 1 Daunting Lad CS
7/01/2006 4:05: Ascot 3 1 Hes Smokin CS
7/01/2006 4:14: Gold Coast 6 1 Helter Skelter CS
7/01/2006 4:37: Fannie Bay 1 1 Rattletrap CS
7/01/2006 5:05: Toowoomba 3 1 Sandy Jack CS
7/01/2006 6:17: Esperance 5 1 Bar Screamer CS
7/01/2006 6:25: Fannie Bay 4 1 Gatto Uccello CS
7/01/2006 6:56: Esperance 6 1 Little Fella CS
7/01/2006 7:03: Fannie Bay 5 1 Kappa CS

[Surround]

Sorry Michaelg

Those selections I sent are correct as best I can tell but the analysis is incorrect.
Still shows a loss however.( B System )
Loss for the win of 17.4% and loss for place of 14.2%.
Does show a win on fast tracks only but not enough action with only 62 selections for the 18 months.
Has a win of 31.3% and place loss of 2.1%.

Best of luck with whatever you decide to do with it.

[michaelg]

Hi, Surround - thanks for the info even though the results are not what I was hoping for. Maybe with certain filters it might be better...

We differ with a few selections. I'm looking at the Telegraph for my info. With method B, Fox Lake is not resuming from a spell, and both I Command and Daunting Lad are definite selections according to the Tele. I don't have any info on Fannie Bay or Esperance.

With method B, Toowomba R3 no.1 is resuming from a spell so I have omitted it. Because we are obtaining our info from sources that differ, our selections will therefore not agree. Let's see how the Tele fares.

I am keeping seperate records for non-city races to see if they are worthwhile.

[DR RON]

An old system I read about years ago said back TAB no 1 if it was carrying at least 2 kgs more than the next horse.

[michaelg]

Hi, Dr Ron.

I seem to think that system was looked at here but it did not perform. Maybe I am wrong and someone will correct me?

[DR RON]

Probably has an ok strike rate but the low divis would kill it.

[Surround]

"The only filter I used was to delete the 'b' selections if it was returning from a spell, and for 'c' selections if it was having its second run from a spell."


I took that to mean for the "C" selections that it couldn't be having it's 2nd run from a spell.
My program shows T'ba race 3 is 1st up from a spell of 287 days and not 2nd up as per the rules.
Yes you are right in what the different media class as a spell.
Fox Lake has had 67days off by my program.
But we'll always have different selections by using different sources I'm sure.

Good luck