Laying the Fave using the Neurals

[michaelg]

I have been looking at laying the fave using the neurals, and in the past 7 days there has been a 100% success rate, even though some days there were few selections, if any. The method is targeting the under $4 pre-post fave, and that horse must have the highest or equal-highest points in a maximum of any 2 of the 11 neural categories. (WT category not looked at). In other words, if it has the most or equal-most points in any three or more categories it is not a selection. I have not looked at Maiden races.

By my reckoning there are 8 horses today that have top or equal-top points in only two of the eleven categories. They are:
Moonee Valley R2 no.3 - Florizel ($3.00)
Port Lincoln R4 no.3 - Zaheerina ($3.20)
Port Lincoln R8 no.1 - Kuan Kung ($2.80)
Ipswich R6 no.10 - Latin tango ($3.50)
Geelong R8 no.9 - Pinsemtoit ($2.50)
Pinjarra R4 no.5 - Tex Tycoon ($3.20)
Pinjarra R5 no.9 - Beleura ($3.50)
Pinjarra R6 no.9 - lady Lamington ($3.50)

Here's hoping...

[crash]

A good effort. Only one winner Pinjarra R4/5 $2.60 uni-tab.

What neural settings are you using?

[Bhagwan]

Well done Michaelg & thanks for sharing ones observations , they are very interesting.

One way to use this info to make a quid ,if one does not fancy laybetting on Betfair is this.

If the "Michaelg false Fav" is also one of the Radio TABs 3 selections, then we bet the other 2 horses to win, betting same amount on each.

(The 3 selections can come from any other reliable source where they have a 45-50% SR of one of their 3 getting up.)

If the false Fav is not in the 3 Radio TAB selections (or your own reliable sourse) , then it is a no bet race.
Thats it.


RESULTS
On the latest selections.
6 wins from 8 races. = 75% SR
Divs. $1.90,3.40,2.90,5.20,3.00,5.60

$100 bets per race @ $50 on each of the 2 horses in each race selected.
Total Ret $1100.00
O/L------$800.00
Profit ----$300.00 = 37.5% POT

Heres one`s $100 a day plan right here ,if the wheels dont fall off.

The Radio TAB selections have an approx. 50% SR of one of their 3 getting up, which is about the same as any other reliable source.

Its probable best to check this out further before placing any serious money on it , say over 150 bets. I feel it has some real promise.

Well done again Michaelg.


Cheers.

[wesmip1]

Bhagwan,

That is a top idea you have there. Thanks for sharing it.

Its a very interesting way of looking at picking selections.

[michaelg]

Yes, Bhagwan, a very interesting method. As you say "if the wheels don't fall off" - however I think it might probably happen today as some of the selections look very good on paper. We'll see what happens.

13 selections.
Randwick R6 no.5 - Silent Song ($3.50)
Randwick R7 no.1 - Posadas ($2.00)
Sandown R1 no.2 - Make A Stand ($2.80)
Sandown R4 no.3 - Bel Danoro ($3.00) Unbeaten in two starts.
Sandown R5 no.3 - Opportunity ($2.50)
Wagga R4 no.1 - New England ($2.50)
Wagga R5 no.3 - Sweet And Tidy ($3.00)
Ascot R4 no.2 - Rouge Sky ($3.50)
Ascot R7 no.2 - Professional lady ($2.50)
Hanging Rock R4 no.3 - She's Just Ace ($2.80)
Hanging Rock R5 no.5 - Blastfromthepast ($3.00)
Hanging Rock R7 no.4 - Howqua ($1.70)
Hanging Rock R8 no.5 - Baby Emma ($3.00)

[crash]

PP prices are a problem. Different sources are going to produce different PP selections. Not much point saying use the Bris. Courier Mail [for instance] to someone living in Melbourne, Sydney or Adelaide.

Apart from the above small problem; to simplify things, why not just back the 2nd. and 3rd. PP fav. flat stakes in these races? That way, 'tips' are avoided and the reduced SP these tips will incur.

[Bhagwan]

Well done again Michaelg.
11 of the 13 False Favs fell over & thats very good at 15%
Thats better than what one originally may have thought .

Unfortunatly the Radio TAB only managed 2 wins from 9 qualifying races=22% $3.40,2.80 & that is well below how they normally perform .

Interestingly 3 horses got up in the qualifying races, at double figure prices & thats unusual , but thats racing on its day.

O/L 20.00
Ret 6.20
Loss -13.80

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

That was meant to read 2 from 10 qualifying races
Not 2 from 9.

Cheers

[michaelg]

Hi, Bhagwan. Hopefully your method had an off-day and will improve.

By my reckoning eleven of the twelve selections lost yesterday, not thirteen selections because Ascot R7 no.2 was scratched. The only winner (I think) from the twelve selections was Ascot R4 no.2 which paid $2.80. If that is the case, then from the twenty selections so far only two have won paying $2.70 and $2.80. Promising, but as you say, the wheels might fall off.

Three selections today:
Canberra R5 no.2 - Henriminx ($2.10)
Gosford R1 no.1 - Lady Viv ($2.40)
Gosford R6 no.2 - Amineh ($2.50)

[the mug]

3 out 3 today michaelg....

cant ask for more than that..good work!!

[crash]

Anyone note what the 2nd. a 3rd PP favorites did in any of these races so far?

[michaelg]

Crash, I haven't been recording the second and third pre-post faves, maybe someone has? I have been looking at trifectas omitting the selections from winning, but it's been up and down.

Yesterday the three selections were beaten.
Nine selections today:
Flemington R5 no.5 - Jukebox Johnny ($2.50)
Flemington R8 no.6 - Iris In The Glen ($3.50)
Eagle Farm R3 no.3 - Milady Clang $2.90)
Morphetville R3 no.1 - Tonlyn Spirit ($3.80)
Morphetville R4 no.2 - Terango ($2.40)
Morphetville R8 no.3 - Pure velocity ($3.00)
Kembla R5 no.1 - Vain And Bold ($1.80)
Toowoomba R6 no.5 - Milgara ($3.20)
Ascot R7 no.3 - Sir Chalmers ($3.80)

I have been looking on-and-off at another neural system which has been doing quite well with each-way betting. I'll list today's selections and see how they go...
Rosehill R3 no.3 - Go Cart
Eagle Farm R4 no.1 - Polar Wolf
Morphetville R1 no.3 - Intoxicating Ring
Toowoomba R5 no.2 - Hoodoo Voodoo
Gold Coast R6 no.1 - Seismic Lady
Gold Coast R7 no.8 - Ming Gold.

[Bhagwan]

Well done again Michaelg 3 from 3 fell over.

Results Fri 27th.Jan using TABQ back the other 2 plan

2 from 2 that qualified
$2.20,5.50
O/L 4.00
Ret 7.70
Prof +3.70 = 92.5% POT

[michaelg]

Yes, a good result on Friday for your method, Bhagwan.

Yesterday though was somewhat disappointing: 2 winners of $3.10 and $3.50 from 9 selections. Hopefully today will be better.

To date there have been 32 selections for 4 winners totalling $12.10.

Seven selections today:
Nowra R3 no.2 - Gold Waltz ($2.70)
Nowra R7 no.5 - Master Strategy ($3.40)
Moe R4 no.1 - Beijing Magic ($2.00)
Sun Coast R4 no.4 - Dream 'N Scheme ($2.60)
Sun Coast R7 no.8 - Mrleon ($3.00)
Bunbury R2 no.1 - Silver Deck ($1.80)
Bunbury R8 no.6 - Dansiqe ($3.20)

[michaelg]

Not the best of days again yesterday. From the six selections (one was scratched) there was one winner of $4.60.

To date there have been 38 selections for 5 winners totalling $16.70. Overall it's not too bad.

Three selections today:
Kempsey R7 no.3 - Siritnya ($3.60)
Terang R6 no.4 - Tenesse Tom ($3.50)
Terang R7 no.1 - Whiskey And Rye ($3.00)

[Chinbok]

Hi,
I’ve been recording the neurals for some time now and ran this thru my database from Sept 2004 to Nov 2005. I don’t have prepost prices so instead used unitab favourite.
<o =""></o>
Excluding 2yo races, there were 6794 selections for 1853 winners, 27.3% SR. The return was 5826.3 using unitab dividends for a 14.2% <st1 ="">LOT</st1>.
<o =""></o>The SR for all unitab favourites over the same period was 31% for a <st1 =""></st1>LOT of 13.4%.<o =""></o>

So there is a significant reduction in SR but loss on turnover is similar. I would think that the difference between the unitab price and your lay price with betfair would account for the majority of the 14%<o =""></o>.

Cheers

[darkydog2002]

Do you have any figures for MAIDEN favs?

Cheers.
darky.

[michaelg]

Hi, Chinbok.

I assume your stats are using the default neural settings? If so, they are what can be expected for accurate ratings because the strike rate is what faves win, and the 14.2% LOT would more-or-less account for the TAB takeout. Therefore, if the neurals are accurate in selecting the winner would it not be reasonable to expect they are also accurate in selecting the false-fave? Or maybe this is only wishful thinking on my part?

Applying the selections to Betfair, and assuming you would have to lay them at a 33% premium to their TAB starting price, the payout on Betfair would have been $22.22 ($16.70 X 1.33). As there have been 38 selections, by my reckoning the system would be well in front?

So far, two of the three selections today have been beaten. Hopfully the third will also be beaten.

[Chinbok]

Hi Michael,

As I understand, the neural settings are irrelevant in your case. I used your rule that the favourite must not have the highest rating in more than 2 categories.

I haven't used betfair for a while but 33% premium on tab divvy seems high. Have you researched that? Regardless, your small sample does look like a good lay system.

However, if you apply the 33% premium to my figures, you would have made a 14% loss, laying these selections. (1.33 * 5826.3 = 7749 for 6794 selections.)

You will end up with different selections though using prepost favourites.

All the best with it.

[Chinbok]

Hi Darky,

Maiden unitab favourites:
Bets: 5962
Wins: 1474
SR: 24.7%
LOT: 13.3%

Maiden unitab favourites that qualify for Michael's Lay System:
Bets: 2070
Wins: 347
SR: 16.8
LOT: 21%

2yo races included in both stats.

It appears that maidens would be a better lay. (no pun intended)

Cheers

[darkydog2002]

Hi Chinbok .

Thank you for that / Very much appreciated.

Cheers.
darky.

[Bhagwan]

Nice piece of research Chinbok.
Well done.

And well done again Michealg.

For some reason the idea of backing the other 2 in the Radio TAB selections is not performing to the average 50% winner in 3 SR for some strange reason.
Maybe these races it is selecting , are more open than they first look on paper , because some big prices seem to be getting up.

Cheers.

[michaelg]

Hi, Chinbok.

I had assumed you were looking at the top selection using the default settings and not referring to the Lay method. It would now seem that the method might not be all that good. I also assume you looked at all faves, not just limiting them to those under $4.00?

As your Unitab figures showed a slightly less of a LOT than the neurals I decided to look at the Unitab ratings applying the same Lay rules to it. I identified a selection if it was not in the top 33% of the ratings. For example, if there were 9 runners in a race and Unitab only rated the under $4 pre-post fave as their fourth selection, it then became a Lay selection. Unfortunately I have only the info going back to Thurs 26 Jan and not Wed 25 as I have with the neurals. Anyway, since Thursday to yesterday there have been 28 Unitab Lay selections for 3 winners totalling $9.60. For the same period, the neurals have had 33 selections for 4 winners totalling $14.00. Laying them on Betfair would have produced a healthy profit for both systems even allowing for the 33% premium which I think may not be too unrealistic. Maybe someone has figures which could confirm/deny this?

I am under the impression that Unitab are provided their ratings from AAP which also owns the neurals, so I expected most of the selections to be mutual, but this was not the case. So from today I'll also list the Unitab selections. You will see that neither method today have mutual selections.

Neurals
Stawell R5 no.2 - Kingster Blue ($2.50)

Unitab
Scone R3 no.2 - Chester County ($3.20)
Scone R4 no.1 - Montecito ($3.50)
Rocky R4 no.1 - Cee Jay Tee ($2.30)

[crash]

It's all a bit weird. How can the last week of results be so out of whack with the longterm stats results? Chance and probability just aren't that ruthless, surely?

[michaelg]

Very good point, Crash.

Chinbok, is it possible to check your data base and see what it throws up for the past week (Wed 25 to Tues 31/01)? As posted here, the last seven days has produced 42 selections for 5 winners totalling $16.70.

Thanks in anticipation.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's neural selection was beaten, however two of the three Unitab selections won for a total win divvy of $4.10 - not a good start!

Six neural selections today:
Wyong R5 no.2 - Regansburg ($2.50)
Sandown R1 no.4 - Swish trish ($2.50)
Sandown R7 no.2 - Miss Theron ($3.50)
Eagle Farm R1 no.1 - Craiglea Miss ($3.50)
Morphetville R2 no.5 - Vara Remarco ($3.50)
Pinjarra R8 no.2 - Ball Lee ($3.50)

One Unitab selection:
Morphetville R7 no.4 - The Marquetear ($3.50)

[Chinbok]

Hi Michael,

I can check the last week to see what I came up with. I understand the neural rule. What others do you want?

No maidens?
Unitab SP < $4 ?
Incl 2yo ?

Just did a quick run using Unitab SP Rank = 1, No 2yo plus the 2 neural category rule and came up with 109 selections from 25th to 31st Jan. Obviously alot more than you. What other rules are you using?

[Chinbok]

I used your initial rules: No maidens, SP < $4 and came up with totally different selections. Must be the difference between Unitab SP and Pre Post.

Bets: 64
Wins: 21
SR: 32.8%
POT: 0.3%

The selections are in the attached file.

[Chinbok]

Maiden unitab favourites:
Bets: 5962
Wins: 1474
SR: 24.7%
LOT: 13.3%

Maiden unitab favourites that qualify for Michael's Lay System:
Bets: 2070
Wins: 347
SR: 16.8
LOT: 21%


These figures are rot. Sorry if I led anyone astray. I filtered on Unitab Rating Rank instead of Unitab SP Rank. I should have realised something was wrong with a group of favourites with a 16.8% strike rate.

The correct figures should be:

Maiden unitab favourites:
Bets: 5376
Wins: 1836
SR: 34.2%
LOT: 9.7%

Maiden unitab favourites that qualify for Michael's Lay System:
Bets: 1854
Wins: 561
SR: 30.3
LOT: 11.4

Not important now as the prepost fave appears to be the one to lay, not the SP fave.

Cheers

[michaelg]

Hi, Chinbok. Thanks for the figures.

I think you're right about the difference with the pre-post and Unitab markets. There doesn't seem to be any other logical explanation??? At least in gives some sort of hope to the system even though it would be expected both markets would even-out in the long run and provide consistent results using both markets. We'll see what happens.

Yesterday was a losing day. From the six selections, two won paying a total of $6.60. Hope this isn't a sign of things to come. The Unitab selection was unplaced.

Six selections today:
Canterbury R5 no.5 - Written Tycoon ($3.50)
Geelong R8 no.2 - Great Provider ($3.50)
Ipswich R5 no6 - One For None ($3.50)
Ipswich R7 no.1 - Keep A Dream Alive ($3.00)
Wagga R5 no.3 - Madam Delia ($2.80)
Mt Barker R6 no.2 - Langtrees Lad ($3.00)
Mt Barker R7 no.1 - Spirited gem ($3.50)

Six selections for the Unitab system
Geelong R4 no.1 - Better Jetsetter ($3.50)
Geelong R8 no.2 - Great Provider ($3.50)
Ipswich R5 no.6 - One For None ($3.50)
Ipswich R7 no.1 -Keep A Dream Alive ($3.00)
Mt Barker R5 no.5 - Carnchawyn ($2.80)
Mt Barker R8 no.1 - Royalistic ($3.00)

[michaelg]

Not the best of days yesterday. From the seven (not six as stated) there were two winners totalling $5.50. To date there have been 55 selections for 9 winners totalling $28.20. The Unitab method has crashed, and I have been looking at a similar method with the neurals that has performed very well. I'll also list them from today and see how they go.

Four selections today:
Townsville R1 no.2 - Zozulina ($3.00)
Bordertown R3 no.7 - Echo peach ($3.50)
Bordertown R4 no.2 - Scary Smokovec ($2.50)
Darwin R3 no.2 - Youwouldn't Believe ($2.00)

New neural method:
Goulburn R4 no.5 - Lottery King ($3.70)
Townsville R1 no.2 - Zozulina ($3.00)
Bordertown R4 no.2 - Scary Smokovec ($2.50)
Bordertown R8 no.1 - September Gold ($3.80)

[michaelg]

A disaster yesterday. From the four selections there were two winners paying $7.90. To date there have been 11 winners from 57 selections totalling $36.70.

Sixteen selections today. Some of them seem very hard to beat.
Randwick R2 no.5 - Crums ($2.50)
Flemington R3 no.1 - Apache cat ($3.00)
Flemington R5 no.3 - Be Delicious ($3.50)
Flemington R6 no.4 - Stickpin ($2.75)
Flemington R9 no.3 - Mock ($2.80)
Dombeen R1 no.1 - Craiglea Bob ($2.80)
Morphetville R6 no.4 - Navy Shaker ($3.20)
Newcastle R7 no.4 - Red Punch ($3.50)
Newcastle R8 no.2 - Khateer ($3.20)
Gold Coast R6 no.1 - Satisfying ($3.50)
Coonabarabran R5 no.1 - Fulagrouch ($2.40)
Bendigo R8 no.2 - Norhave ($2.20)
Toowoomba R5 no.2 - Dane In Gold ($3.20)
Ascot R2 no.4 - Run Ronnie Run ($3.50)
Ascot R5 no.6 - Elsie The Eagle ($3.30)
Ascot R7 no.3 - Blazing Morn ($3.50)

[michaelg]

From yesterday's sixteen selections there were three winners totalling $9.10.
To date there have been 75 selections (this thread has shown 75 individual selections but I miscalculated on Fri by adding 4 selctions to 55 and coming up with an incorrect 57 instead of 59) for 14 winners totalling $45.80.

Nine selections today:
Sale R4 no.2 - Knockout ($3.80)
Parkes R2 no.4 - Blow Bubbles ($2.80)
Launceston R6 no.1 - Dream Quest ($3.50)
Port Lincoln R8 no.3 - Regal Lotto ($2.20)
Wodonga R6 no.1 - My Honor ($2.30)
Pinjarra R4 no.1 - Corporate Eddy ($3.50)
Pinjarra R6 no.3 - Cubic Zirconia ($3.00)
Pinjarra R7 no.4 - Magic Haul ($2.80)
Pinjarra R8 no.6 - Junko ($3.50)

[KennyVictor]

(this thread has shown 75 individual selections but I miscalculated on Fri by adding 4 selctions to 55 and coming up with an incorrect 57 instead of 59)What you need is a spreadsheet to keep your figures in. You'll find a template for reqesting one in the "Roving banker trifecta's" thread. :-)
Keep up the good work michaelg, it seems to be showing some promise.

KV

[marcus25]

What you need is a spreadsheet to keep your figures in. You'll find a template for reqesting one in the "Roving banker trifecta's" thread. :-)
KV
Hi KV!
Just love it!!!
Cheers

[michaelg]

Hi, KV. Unfortunately I am not computer-wise and using a spreadsheet at the moment is beyond me. Hopefully I'll one day be able to use it.

From yesterday's nine selections there were two winners paying $8.10 - not a good day. To date there have been 84 selections for 16 winners paying a total of $53.90. Adding 33%, it increases to $71.70.

I have been looking at another Lay system that has performed quite well over the past week. The selection must be under $4 pre-post, must be a last start winner (LSW) and its barrier draw today is in the outside half of the field. It seems, hopefully, that the extra weight combined with an unfavourable draw might put it at a disadvantage. I have not looked at races under 8 starters, and I presume weight-for-age and set weight races would not apply. From memory, there has been about 30 races for 3 winners paying approx $9. From today I'll also list these and see what happens.

Three neural selections today:
Grafton R2 no.4 - Lord Nediym ($3.40)
Grafton R5 no.2 - Sub Sonic ($3.20)
Horsham R1 no.3 - Anahita ($2.20)

Two LSW selections:
Grafton R2 no.4 - Lord Nediym ($3.40)
Grafton R5 no.2 - Sub Sonic ($3.20)

[michaelg]

A bad day again yesterday. From the three selections there was one winner of $2.80. The LSW method also had the winner of $2.80 from two selections.

Four selections today
Canterbury R2 no.2 - Eastwest Success ($2.80)
Stony Creek R8 no.1 - Liquuer ($2.30)
Taree R5 no.1 - Strawberry Spy ($2.80)
Taree R7 no.2 - Melodyssey ($3.50)

No LSW selections.

[anchor]

michaelg, 0 wins from the 4(though Melodyssey blew a gale out to $6.5).
Well done, interested on your progress.

[michaelg]

Hi, Anchor. Yes, that's a problem - the Starting Price. However, if a selection eases in the market it would generally be expected not to run well. After having said that, there have been 5 of the 17 winners that have started at $4 or more yet were under $4 in the pre-post, and these winners can do terrible damage to the system. But I think/hope the pre-post gets it right more often than not. The progress to date is 91 selections for 17 winners paying a total of $56.70 which would show a profit even with a 33% premium if they were laid on Betfair.

Seven selections today:
Warwick Farm R5 no.3 - Cash Carter ($3.00)
Warwick Farm R7 no.1 - Handbag Fortune ($2.80)
Warwick Farm R8 no.7 - Yolo ($2.80)
Ipswich R4 no.1 - Examiner ($3.50)
Ipswich R7 no.4 - Thorpe ($3.00)
Strathalbyn R4 no.2 - Cazza's Lottery ($3.50)
Strathalbyn R5 no.1 - Giggling Giggs ($3.00)

Three LSW selections:
Warwick Farm R8 no.7 - Yolo ($2.80)
Strathalbyn R8 no.1 - Da Thong ($2.00)
Bunbury R8 no.2 - Captain Woodrow) ($2.80)

[KennyVictor]

I'm not really "Betfair Literate" so could someone explain the 33% premium to laying them on betfair please.

KV

[michaelg]

Hi, K.V.

The dividends on Betfair are invariably better than the TAB because Betfair does not have a "take out" (except a small amount based solely on the the profit of a bet) whilst the TAB takes out 16% in every $1 wagered.

I'm assuming my Lay divvy with Betfair is 33% higher than the TAB divvy. So if a horse pays $3.00 with the TAB, then my assumption is that I laid it with Betfair at $4.00. This means that whilst the TAB pays the punter $3.00 I pay him $4.00 which is 33% higher then the TAB. 33% is only an arbitrary figure, and quite often you might be able to lay a horse, especially if it is the fave, close to the TAB price. In reality 33% might be too generous but when I'm looking at a system I tend to be somewhat conservative.

Hope this explains it clearly.
Michael.

[KennyVictor]

Hope this explains it clearly.
Thanks, it does.

[michaelg]

One winner of $3.10 from yesterday's seven selections. To date there have been 98 selections for 18 winners paying a total of $59.80.

Eight selections today:
Gosford R8 no.2 - Great Time ($3.20)
Mornington R6 no.5 - On The Green ($3.50)
Mornington R7 no.6 - New Kid In Town ($3.50)
Mornington R8 no.6 - Fearless Waters ($3.50)
Rocky R2 no.3 - Morning Glory ($2.50)
Rocky R3 no.2 - Bold Red ($3.00)
Rocky R7 no.1 - Na Moos ($3.50)
Geraldton R5 no.1 - Recalcitrant ($3.50)

[michaelg]

A terrible day yesterday. There were three winners totalling $10.40 from eight selections. To date there have been 106 selections for 21 winners totalling $70.20.

Four selections today:
Albury R4 no.4 - Mooncoin Magic ($3.60)
Moonee Valley R4 no.3 - Caterwaul ($3.00)
Eagle Farm R8 no.1 - Gang ($3.60)
Gawler R7 no.5 - Honey Gee ($2.80)

[Bhagwan]

Hi Michaelg,
I have run my data base over many different senerioes to weed out false Favs over 20,000 races & found that no matter what one does , those darn false Favs still win 20% of the time & we need to get it down to 15% if possible.

One False Fav thing I came accross is Favs in Maiden races starting from barrier 1 had only a 15% SR .
I dont know why , maybe they dont like being squeezed or touched.

Cheers.

[michaelg]

Yesterday the four selections were beaten. To date there have been 110 selections for 21 winners paying $70.20.

Twelve selections today:
Rosehill R3 no.4 - Palabiro ($3.00)
Rosehill R4 no.2 - Alike ($3.80)
Caulfield R1 no.6 - Millie Rose ($3.00)
Dombeen R3 no.5 - Mr Sensible ($2.80)
Dombeen R8 no.2 - Step Right In ($3.20)
Cheltenham R2 no.1 - Balsamico ($3.20)
Cheltenham R3 no.3 - Nedrullah ($3.50)
Cheltenham R5 no.4 - Chemin ($3.80)
Cheltenham R7 no.1 - Shablec ($2.20)
Toowoomba R6 no.7 - Dance Sally Dance ($3.20)
Hobart R1 no.2 - Smashed ($2.50)
Grafton R6 no.5 - Daysauvage ($3.40)

[Mark]

I'm assuming my Lay divvy with Betfair is 33% higher than the TAB divvy. So if a horse pays $3.00 with the TAB, then my assumption is that I laid it with Betfair at $4.00.


Hi Michaelg

The above statement suggests to me that you don't have a betfair a/c. Shame, because you don't need to got that far over to lay horses, and you should be making a lot of money.

[KennyVictor]

One False Fav thing I came accross is Favs in Maiden races starting from barrier 1 had only a 15% SR .
I dont know why , maybe they dont like being squeezed or touched.
Any chance of putting the percentage for barriers 1 to 8 so we can put that in context. I mean if the other barriers have some sort of consistency above the 15% your data has some merit, if they are all over the place maybe it's chance maybe it's not.

Cheers,
KV

[michaelg]

Hi, Mark.

I do have a Betfair account, but have got almost nothing in it due to a 100% loss rate in test cricket and Australian Idol. I realise the 33% premium is probably being over-generous but I like to exaggerate the divvy if testing "on paper".

You're right - if I had actually laid them on Betfair I'm sure the profit would be quite substantial but I can't wait at my PC for the actual race. Maybe if the method proves to be profitable in the long term then I might lay them on Betfair if/when I can legally deposit some money in my account.

Hobart R1 has just been run, and our selection started odds-on but didn't even run a place.

[michaelg]

From yesterday's 12 selections there were 2 winners paying $8.10.

I should have realised it from the beginning of the system that horses resuming from a spell are given few points if any, from the CF, TIM and DLR neural categories. Checking this, there have been 15 selections resuming from a spell, and 4 of them have won paying $12.40. Without these, there have been 96 selections for 20 winners paying $63.80 which is an improvement on the overall results. So from today I'll omit them.

Three selections today;
Colac R9 no.2 - Straight Legs ($3.20)
Albany R4 no.2 - Great Beau ($2.25)
Albany R7 no.3 - Nostoc ($2.80)

[michaelg]

Yesterday was a terrible day. As its going from bad to worse I'll stop for now. Selecting winners, not losers seems to be the way to go at the moment.