I have been looking at laying the fave using the neurals, and in the past 7 days there has been a 100% success rate, even though some days there were few selections, if any. The method is targeting the under $4 pre-post fave, and that horse must have the highest or equal-highest points in a maximum of any 2 of the 11 neural categories. (WT category not looked at). In other words, if it has the most or equal-most points in any three or more categories it is not a selection. I have not looked at Maiden races.

By my reckoning there are 8 horses today that have top or equal-top points in only two of the eleven categories. They are:
Moonee Valley R2 no.3 - Florizel ($3.00)
Port Lincoln R4 no.3 - Zaheerina ($3.20)
Port Lincoln R8 no.1 - Kuan Kung ($2.80)
Ipswich R6 no.10 - Latin tango ($3.50)
Geelong R8 no.9 - Pinsemtoit ($2.50)
Pinjarra R4 no.5 - Tex Tycoon ($3.20)
Pinjarra R5 no.9 - Beleura ($3.50)
Pinjarra R6 no.9 - lady Lamington ($3.50)

Here's hoping...

A good effort. Only one winner Pinjarra R4/5 $2.60 uni-tab.

What neural settings are you using?

Well done Michaelg & thanks for sharing ones observations , they are very interesting.

One way to use this info to make a quid ,if one does not fancy laybetting on Betfair is this.

If the "Michaelg false Fav" is also one of the Radio TABs 3 selections, then we bet the other 2 horses to win, betting same amount on each.

(The 3 selections can come from any other reliable source where they have a 45-50% SR of one of their 3 getting up.)

If the false Fav is not in the 3 Radio TAB selections (or your own reliable sourse) , then it is a no bet race.
Thats it.


RESULTS
On the latest selections.
6 wins from 8 races. = 75% SR
Divs. $1.90,3.40,2.90,5.20,3.00,5.60

$100 bets per race @ $50 on each of the 2 horses in each race selected.
Total Ret $1100.00
O/L------$800.00
Profit ----$300.00 = 37.5% POT

Heres one`s $100 a day plan right here ,if the wheels dont fall off.

The Radio TAB selections have an approx. 50% SR of one of their 3 getting up, which is about the same as any other reliable source.

Its probable best to check this out further before placing any serious money on it , say over 150 bets. I feel it has some real promise.

Well done again Michaelg.


Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Bhagwan,

That is a top idea you have there. Thanks for sharing it.

Its a very interesting way of looking at picking selections.

Yes, Bhagwan, a very interesting method. As you say "if the wheels don't fall off" - however I think it might probably happen today as some of the selections look very good on paper. We'll see what happens.

13 selections.
Randwick R6 no.5 - Silent Song ($3.50)
Randwick R7 no.1 - Posadas ($2.00)
Sandown R1 no.2 - Make A Stand ($2.80)
Sandown R4 no.3 - Bel Danoro ($3.00) Unbeaten in two starts.
Sandown R5 no.3 - Opportunity ($2.50)
Wagga R4 no.1 - New England ($2.50)
Wagga R5 no.3 - Sweet And Tidy ($3.00)
Ascot R4 no.2 - Rouge Sky ($3.50)
Ascot R7 no.2 - Professional lady ($2.50)
Hanging Rock R4 no.3 - She's Just Ace ($2.80)
Hanging Rock R5 no.5 - Blastfromthepast ($3.00)
Hanging Rock R7 no.4 - Howqua ($1.70)
Hanging Rock R8 no.5 - Baby Emma ($3.00)

PP prices are a problem. Different sources are going to produce different PP selections. Not much point saying use the Bris. Courier Mail [for instance] to someone living in Melbourne, Sydney or Adelaide.

Apart from the above small problem; to simplify things, why not just back the 2nd. and 3rd. PP fav. flat stakes in these races? That way, 'tips' are avoided and the reduced SP these tips will incur.

Hi,
I’ve been recording the neurals for some time now and ran this thru my database from Sept 2004 to Nov 2005. I don’t have prepost prices so instead used unitab favourite.

Excluding 2yo races, there were 6794 selections for 1853 winners, 27.3% SR. The return was 5826.3 using unitab dividends for a 14.2% LOT.
The SR for all unitab favourites over the same period was 31% for a LOT of 13.4%.

So there is a significant reduction in SR but loss on turnover is similar. I would think that the difference between the unitab price and your lay price with betfair would account for the majority of the 14%.

Cheers

Do you have any figures for MAIDEN favs?

Cheers.
darky.

Hi, Chinbok.

I assume your stats are using the default neural settings? If so, they are what can be expected for accurate ratings because the strike rate is what faves win, and the 14.2% LOT would more-or-less account for the TAB takeout. Therefore, if the neurals are accurate in selecting the winner would it not be reasonable to expect they are also accurate in selecting the false-fave? Or maybe this is only wishful thinking on my part?

Applying the selections to Betfair, and assuming you would have to lay them at a 33% premium to their TAB starting price, the payout on Betfair would have been $22.22 ($16.70 X 1.33). As there have been 38 selections, by my reckoning the system would be well in front?

So far, two of the three selections today have been beaten. Hopfully the third will also be beaten.

Hi Michael,

As I understand, the neural settings are irrelevant in your case. I used your rule that the favourite must not have the highest rating in more than 2 categories.

I haven't used betfair for a while but 33% premium on tab divvy seems high. Have you researched that? Regardless, your small sample does look like a good lay system.

However, if you apply the 33% premium to my figures, you would have made a 14% loss, laying these selections. (1.33 * 5826.3 = 7749 for 6794 selections.)

You will end up with different selections though using prepost favourites.

All the best with it.