Who do you like in the Melbourne Cup?

[Horse Whisperer]

I was just reading that leading bookmakers have come out and said there has been little support for any local runners in the Melb. Cup this year. That the bulk of the money has come for overseas horses. So if this is the case, who have you guys put your money on, or if you havn't yet, who at this stage do you like and why?

I have liked Our Smoking Joe for this years cup since his run in the BMW earlier in the year. The way he got taken on up front, and then only lost by 2 lenths (i think) to Eremein and about 1/2 length to Railings, i thought was massive. 2nd last run alot of ppl comented as dissapointing but the way he hit the line, running impressive sectionals after getting shuffled back at a crucial stage, and boxed right in. Then the last run, sitting 3 wide the entire journey, and only went down by a neck to Sphenophyta, who imo got a much easier run.

Anyway thats my thoughts, whats yours?

BTW im not trying to make this into some sort of tipping comp. There just seems to have been little to no discussion of the topic this year which seems weird.

[Chrome Prince]

On A Jeune, I stated this straight after his run last year and he looks to be right on target.

I cannot believe that after his run last year, he's such long odds.

If he remains sound, the track is reasonable and he gets a good ride - I think he wins.

They've opted to put "the Gauch" back on early, an omen of sorts.

I'd imagine he'll have one more run either in a country cup over >2000m or at headquarters and be left alone for 10 to 14 days before the Cup.

[Sportz]

I cannot believe that after his run last year, he's such long odds.


Because he's an old style plodding handicapper. That's not meant as an insult. He's exactly the sort of horse that used to win Cups all the time. It's just that things are different these days. Now, it's usually won by a horse that's at least competitive at WFA and is capable of winning at distances as short as 2000 metres. Besides which, On A Jeune was an outsider last year, and he hasn't won a race since. No doubt some people think it was a fluke.

Personally, I think he has a good chance, but I must say that if you looked just at his record since last year's cup, it's certainly not that great.

[Real Deal]

2 posts only and what can i say?? I like what i read.

I have only anchored 2 horses in all my doubles on The Melbourne Cup part. On a Jeune and Our Smoking Joe. The caulfield cup may paint a brighter picture but i am still very happy to be on these 2 for the cup!

[Chuck]

i agree that on a jeune is a big chance. i also think hawkes runners railings and headturner could produce, and of the others maybe zipping and serenade rose. out of the internationals i think yeats is a hoax, not sure tawqeet has the class so maybe soulacroix or glistening just my two cents

[Matilda]

I am also on Our Smoking Joe. His last few runs was really good and crying for a little longer. He could even win the CC.

The other one that I like is Activation. Good run on Saturday.

For overseas, Japan horse likes Australia turf as it's quite similar to back home. Pop Rock and Delta Blue could sneak for a placing.

[Chrome Prince]

Because he's an old style plodding handicapper. That's not meant as an insult. He's exactly the sort of horse that used to win Cups all the time. It's just that things are different these days. Now, it's usually won by a horse that's at least competitive at WFA and is capable of winning at distances as short as 2000 metres. Besides which, On A Jeune was an outsider last year, and he hasn't won a race since. No doubt some people think it was a fluke.

Personally, I think he has a good chance, but I must say that if you looked just at his record since last year's cup, it's certainly not that great.

You're quite right Sportz, he is an old style plodder, but just the type that gets cover and is capable of storming down the outside.
I don't really agree with the WFA thing nor the performance angle, as Bart used to say (and still says) it's the miles in the legs.

There's no doubt hisperformance since winning the Cup has been poor, but he's been set for this since last year. His stint earlier this year did not suit at all.

The WFA horses are always touted and very short in the market, I believe this year's Melbourne Cup will be different.

To win a Melbourne Cup a horse has to be fit, have the miles in the legs and be capable of winning at the level and distance.

On a Jeune satisfies all that criteria.

Running 2nd to a horse that won three Melbourne Cups is good enough to take it out.

I'll be going heavily on this one as it seems to be excellent place value at least with the more fancied horses being shorter.

I'll probably also box up On A Jeune with some of the internationals, just not sure which one's yet ;)

[Chrome Prince]

By the way, does anyone recall a Cup winner coming from a wildcard or last ditch effort to get a run.

I can't think of one.

[Tenacious Spirit]

Of the internationals i think Delta Blues is the better chance of the japanese at the 3000 and also like Imperial Stride and Glistening. Freedman has been saying all along that OSJ is just getting more and more dour. The 3000 might be his go this year, if it rains even better.

[Sportz]

Well, if he's suited to 3000m, that would be great. Then the only problem would be getting him to run another 200 metres after that. ;)

[Tenacious Spirit]

nice form

[Dazz]

Have done my shares of investigation into Geordieland and am

Already willing to back it.

Very impressive , 54 kgs sees it hard to beat.

Connections bought the horse totally in view of winning the Melbourne

Cup.

At 30's a great risk.

[Stix]

Glistneing for me, have 51's about it in September.... who know, might just be a donation :o

[Matilda]

36730 TAWQEET $8.00 $2.75
36598 HEADTURNER $9.00 $3.00
36757 YEATS $9.00 $3.00
36681 RAILINGS $11.00 $3.50
36716 SPHENOPHYTA $11.00 $3.50
36503 ACTIVATION $13.00 $4.00
36653 ON A JEUNE $13.00 $4.00
36660 OUR SMOKING JOE $13.00 $4.00
36762 ZIPPING $13.00 $4.00
36706 SERENADE ROSE $17.00 $5.00
36587 GEORDIELAND $21.00 $6.00
36604 IMPERIAL STRIDE $21.00 $6.00
36672 POP ROCK $21.00 $6.00
36665 PENTANE $26.00 $7.25
36559 DIZELLE $31.00 $8.50
36756 WUNDERWOOD $31.00 $8.50
36502 ACCUMULATE $41.00 $11.00
36553 DELTA BLUES $41.00 $11.00
36588 GLISTENING $41.00 $11.00
36601 ICE CHARIOT $41.00 $11.00
36592 GRAND ZULU $51.00 $13.50
36733 TESTAFIABLE $51.00 $13.50
36531 CARTE DIAMOND $61.00 $16.00
36554 DEMERGER $61.00 $16.00
36617 LAND N STARS $61.00 $16.00
36521 BLACK TOM $71.00 $18.50
36613 KERRY OREILLY $71.00 $18.50
36745 VANQUISHED $71.00 $18.50
36760 ZABEAT $71.00 $18.50

[Matilda]

Hi all,

Anyone have the form for IMPERIAL STRIDE?. Wondering why paying only at 21?

[frogs on toast]

I think it will be a Cups double this year for Ice Chariot.

frogs

[Horse Whisperer]

frogs on toast: i think ice chariot is an excellent horse, but hearing glen lynch on the radio this morning he was saying he thinks the horse is a yr away from being competitive in a melbourne cup.

anyone know where pavlova is on the order of entry?? 48kg's will make it nicely weighted if it gets a run.

[Matilda]

Not passed ballot clause as of 10 Oct 2006: Total 32
59 LAD OF THE MANOR (NZ) (Roger Hoysted) 7 g 56.0 2.5 $1,531,600
60 GRAND ZULU (Gwenda Markwell) 6 g 53.5 5.0 $172,942
61 ZIPPING (Graeme Rogerson) 5 g 52.5 (inc 1.0kg pen) 6.0 $366,070
62 MAYBE BETTER (Brian Mayfield-Smith) 4 g 50.0 7.0 $244,000
63 SOULACROIX (GB) (Luca Cumani) 6 g 50.5 8.0 $144,301
64 SPHENOPHYTA (NZ) (Lee Freedman) 6 g 50.0 8.5 $607,260
65 PURDE (NZ) (David Hayes) 4 m 48.0 8.5 $158,004
66 MI CASA (Bart Cummings) 5 g 49.5 9.0 $211,270
67 EXALTED EGO (Jim Smith) 5 g 49.5 9.0 $179,090
68 LANCETTIER (ARG) (David Hayes) 7 h 49.5 9.0 $174,565
69 DI'S ANGEL (Lee Freedman) 5 m 49.5 9.0 $159,197
70 OLD MYSTIQUE (Bede Murray) 6 g 49.5 9.0 $131,610
71 KERASHAN (IRE) (Saeed bin Suroor) 5 g 49.5 9.0 $124,652
72 VALKYRIE DIVA (Lee Freedman) 5 m 49.5 9.0 $121,775
73 SAVLATE (NZ) (Lee Freedman) 4 g 48.0 9.0 $119,750
74 VICTORY SWEEP (Peter Healey) 4 g 48.0 9.0 $105,300
75 LORD ERIN (NZ) (Grant Dalziel) 8 g 49.5 9.0 $101,700
76 MAGIC INSTINCT (GB) (Peter Moody) 5 g 49.5 9.0 $100,821
77 PAVLOVA (Cliff Brown) 4 m 48.0 9.0 $100,250

[Raw Instinct]

Have found it hard to get real interested in the cup this year so far infact I am probably looking forward to the Cox Plate more than the Melbourne Cup. I have had a small bet on Railings when they 1st opened the Cup betting when they had the double price offer of $34 which isn't bad the same odds I got him for both cups last year however I amnot as confident he will run a good race this year as I was last year.

Tawqeet will be hard to beat on his metrop win and you can't knock what Activation did there (I just wonder if he can get the 3200m). As far as the imports go I don't know anything about any of them however I don't think any of them are going to have to be that great to win this race our stayers just do not look great right now.

Our Smoking Joe is always a chance when he runs he is still a query at 3200m but he is settling alot better this prep, On a Jeune is also a chance seems to be ticking along nicely.

One of the younger horses I have a little time for is Victory Sweep he looks like a real 2 miler already just not sure he will get into the field.

[Seeker11]

I have been keen on On A Jeune since it passed the post last Nov. I have followed its progress this prep and have been very happy watching it carry the big weights and being quite competitive. I was very happy with its run on 7 October at Flemington where it strolled to the line 5th of 12, about 1.5 lengths, over 2530m. I thinks the odds are about right at about $13/$4 at the moment and will have a nibble at him each way.

I also like Our Smoking Joe, Tawqeet, Sphenophyta, Activation and Serenade Rose at this early stage

[Matilda]

From the history for the last 20 Mel Cup races, was the winner a last time out winner before they won the Mel Cup?.

[Makybe Diva]

Do you mean did the winner of the Cup win their previous start? The Diva would have surely?

[dc]

Im gonna jump on the Tawqueet Band Wagon... i reckong he'll win the Melb Cup... Looks like a smart horse, will relax then explode when told to..

Hayes has been kicking ass all year and he will clean up most of the big races this spring... Might even do a 'Melb Cup-Cox Plate' with Tawqueet-Miss Finland..