I was just reading that leading bookmakers have come out and said there has been little support for any local runners in the Melb. Cup this year. That the bulk of the money has come for overseas horses. So if this is the case, who have you guys put your money on, or if you havn't yet, who at this stage do you like and why?

I have liked Our Smoking Joe for this years cup since his run in the BMW earlier in the year. The way he got taken on up front, and then only lost by 2 lenths (i think) to Eremein and about 1/2 length to Railings, i thought was massive. 2nd last run alot of ppl comented as dissapointing but the way he hit the line, running impressive sectionals after getting shuffled back at a crucial stage, and boxed right in. Then the last run, sitting 3 wide the entire journey, and only went down by a neck to Sphenophyta, who imo got a much easier run.

Anyway thats my thoughts, whats yours?

BTW im not trying to make this into some sort of tipping comp. There just seems to have been little to no discussion of the topic this year which seems weird.

On A Jeune, I stated this straight after his run last year and he looks to be right on target.

I cannot believe that after his run last year, he's such long odds.

If he remains sound, the track is reasonable and he gets a good ride - I think he wins.

They've opted to put "the Gauch" back on early, an omen of sorts.

I'd imagine he'll have one more run either in a country cup over >2000m or at headquarters and be left alone for 10 to 14 days before the Cup.

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Because he's an old style plodding handicapper. That's not meant as an insult. He's exactly the sort of horse that used to win Cups all the time. It's just that things are different these days. Now, it's usually won by a horse that's at least competitive at WFA and is capable of winning at distances as short as 2000 metres. Besides which, On A Jeune was an outsider last year, and he hasn't won a race since. No doubt some people think it was a fluke.

Personally, I think he has a good chance, but I must say that if you looked just at his record since last year's cup, it's certainly not that great.

2 posts only and what can i say?? I like what i read.

I have only anchored 2 horses in all my doubles on The Melbourne Cup part. On a Jeune and Our Smoking Joe. The caulfield cup may paint a brighter picture but i am still very happy to be on these 2 for the cup!

i agree that on a jeune is a big chance. i also think hawkes runners railings and headturner could produce, and of the others maybe zipping and serenade rose. out of the internationals i think yeats is a hoax, not sure tawqeet has the class so maybe soulacroix or glistening just my two cents

I am also on Our Smoking Joe. His last few runs was really good and crying for a little longer. He could even win the CC.

The other one that I like is Activation. Good run on Saturday.

For overseas, Japan horse likes Australia turf as it's quite similar to back home. Pop Rock and Delta Blue could sneak for a placing.

You're quite right Sportz, he is an old style plodder, but just the type that gets cover and is capable of storming down the outside.
I don't really agree with the WFA thing nor the performance angle, as Bart used to say (and still says) it's the miles in the legs.

There's no doubt hisperformance since winning the Cup has been poor, but he's been set for this since last year. His stint earlier this year did not suit at all.

The WFA horses are always touted and very short in the market, I believe this year's Melbourne Cup will be different.

To win a Melbourne Cup a horse has to be fit, have the miles in the legs and be capable of winning at the level and distance.

On a Jeune satisfies all that criteria.

Running 2nd to a horse that won three Melbourne Cups is good enough to take it out.

I'll be going heavily on this one as it seems to be excellent place value at least with the more fancied horses being shorter.

I'll probably also box up On A Jeune with some of the internationals, just not sure which one's yet

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By the way, does anyone recall a Cup winner coming from a wildcard or last ditch effort to get a run.

I can't think of one.

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Of the internationals i think Delta Blues is the better chance of the japanese at the 3000 and also like Imperial Stride and Glistening. Freedman has been saying all along that OSJ is just getting more and more dour. The 3000 might be his go this year, if it rains even better.

Well, if he's suited to 3000m, that would be great. Then the only problem would be getting him to run another 200 metres after that.