The Death of the Trifecta [?]

[crash]

Good old 1c poker machine mentality has hit racing's trifecta [flexi-bet].

Every mug in Aust. is having boxed field $5 trifectas.

I just won a 2x2x field race in Brisb. 1. Talum [$2.10w] and 2. Party Express [$21sp $5.80p]. Third paid $2.10 [$8.10sp]. The tri. paid a lousy $225 for a 14 horse race!!!

The exacta paid [a much healthier] $54. Much better value for money considering the cost difference between a 1 unit 2 horse boxed exacta and a 1 unit 14 horse 2x2xfield tri. [no more trifectas for me].

Considering the 25%+ TAB take out, the tri. is now a very poor value bet when every mug is a [percentage] winner!

[crash]

Here is another one:

Sandown:

I had Mr Baritone for the win in Sandown r7 [sp $6.30] and a [my favorite tri.] 2x2xfield tri. for 1unit. [9 horses in the field].

Mr Baritone/Stickpin x field

Stickpin won amd Mr Baritone came 2nd. in a photo [tough luck for me] but I won the tri. which paid the 'glorious' amount of $56!

1. sp 2.10
2. sp 6.30
3. sp 10.50

A very lousy tri. for a Sat. Why?
Everyone had [a percentage of] it !!!

[Wunfluova]

There was a dominant favourite in both those races Crash, so I think the standout trifectas with the favs did the damage. Also, in the melb race there were really only five horses in the market.

I also backed Mr Baritone straight out then saved in tris with Stickpin from four others. Thought I had dipped out on a result with Recapitalize appearing to run third for sure going on the post race replays.

The flexi bets are only new for Vic Tab - NSW Tab has been betting them for years.

[crash]

Well I just won on Poet's Voice in the last $6.60 and had it with the fav. [2nd]. I havn't had time to check the tri [2x2xfield again] but I bet it's crap and the fav. never won [don't know who came third as I'm on the way out to vote and the handbrake is nagging me to GO NOW]!

[crash]

7 - POET'S VOICE 6.40w 2.20p
1 - BISCAYNE BAY 1.70 [fav.]
3 - RAID THE ROYALS 2.20 [$7sp]
Exa 7 - 1 / 31.10
Tri 7 - 1 - 3 / 103.10

The tri. price just doesn't stack up right.

Blind Freddy can work out there are going to be a lot more tri. punters winning in the tri. prize pools [including himself] now with % tri's.


Anyone can have a Field boxed tri. or any type of tri., for any $ amount [even 50c cost] now for a % win.

[jfc]

7 - POET'S VOICE 6.40w 2.20p
1 - BISCAYNE BAY 1.70 [fav.]
3 - RAID THE ROYALS 2.20 [$7sp]
Exa 7 - 1 / 31.10
Tri 7 - 1 - 3 / 103.10

The tri. price just doesn't stack up right.

Blind Freddy can work out there are going to be a lot more tri. punters winning in the tri. prize pools [including himself] now with % tri's.


Anyone can have a Field boxed tri. or any type of tri., for any $ amount [even 50c cost] now for a % win.

Crash,

if you try that Trifecta spreadsheet formula I published here recently you should find that the fair price for that Trifecta should be 133.8584.

Based on that tote prices of 6.4, 3.9 & 7.0.

If you apply a 20% rake that price reduces to 107.0867 - which is close enough to the actual 103.10.


http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?p=131329#post131329

[Chrome Prince]

crash,

I had some similar bets to you guys today - but bear in mind the big punters were all over Stickpin like a cheap suit, so I reckon a lot of them had Stickpin standout with a few to fill 2nd and 3rd x volumes of units. This strategy really impacts the divvies to real underlays no matter what runs 2nd or 3rd save a bolter for 2nd. As it was Mr Baritone was also my other bet in the race, so I'm sure it didn't escape the trifecta ticket.

The Poet's voice race had Biscayne Bay run second (due to an errant seagull), so in short, when you have two highly fancied runners running first and second, there is little value to get out of boxing. To get any value, you need to stand them out as singles and put a few units on them.

It is frustrating though, when you get those sort of returns.

[crash]

These tri. bets are a nonsense considering their odds of winning and the takeout.

[Wunfluova]

Tellem tri - Vic paid $225 Qld paid $181

Stickpin tri - Vic paid $56 Qld paid $39

Poet's Voice tri - Vic paid $103 Qld paid $89

Crash, all the punters in Qld are choking on their cornflakes this morning and complaining "if we had that flexi betting like in Victoria then our trifectas would pay more"

[go4it]

For some reason Unitab divvies are generally lower than the other Tabs right across the board.We don't have flexi bet,but you can take multiple F4's for a 25cent unit.I think Chrome hit the nail on the head,when it appears to be a race with only 2 main chances the big punters stand them out to run 1-2 with 4 or 5 others to run 3rd @ 50 or 100 units,then add in all the flexi bettors that stand them out with the field(as Crash does)then the high % takeout,and your value goes out the window,even if a 50/1 shot runs 3rd!

[Wunfluova]

I believe Mark Read's outfit were barred from betting into NSW Tab so I am wondering if they might bet some back into Unitab.

[crash]

Tellem tri - Vic paid $225 Qld paid $181

Stickpin tri - Vic paid $56 Qld paid $39

Poet's Voice tri - Vic paid $103 Qld paid $89

Crash, all the punters in Qld are choking on their cornflakes this morning and complaining "if we had that flexi betting like in Victoria then our trifectas would pay more"

I see your point but lets face it, considering the pools in Vic. are probably 3 to 5 times larger than the QLD pools, with flexi-bet they would be getting even less [pumpkin scone?].

[Oaksnaf]

Well there are races were the exacta pays more than a trifecta, the duet pays more than the exacta, and the trifecta pays more than the first four. Maybe you just hit a patch which everyone else hit crash, and thus the outcome was small for a tri.

[crash]

Yep, probably so. It's always seems to be the tri's I win though that pay poorly.

[ubetido]

Hi all

Well asa suggestion concentrate on getting the good priced ones in the second spot alot of punters drop these and place in the third lot of combinations.

Of course the price of winner has some bearing but if you study the divis they will tell you the story.

Cheers
ubetido

[Bhagwan]

If one is going to bet the field for 3rd , one is nearly always going to cop an expensive exercise to possible return.

Its an idea to try & restrict the number of mules down to 70% of the field if possible & work from there.


One Method of attack based on field size.
Percentage to field size
35%- 1st 70%-2nd 52%-3rd Of total field

E.g. Races with 11-12 runners @ 70% . Target 8 runners
4x8x6
We times 4x7x4=112 O/L

This represents 14% less O/L rather than betting 4x6x8=120 for greater spread of value.

The best races to do this on ,are races with 11-12 runners, so as to snare some value to exposed risk & O/L.

If doing the Melb Cup with 20 runners @ 70% = 14 runners
1st-7 runners 2nd-14 runners 3rd-10 runners
7x14x10
We times 7x13x8=728 units O/L

Here is the calculation to work out what one is up for , in ones preferred combinations.

Assuming 8 Horses.

3x5x8
We times 3x4x6=72 O/L
We take -1 away from the 2nd set of selections & -2 away from the 3rd set of selections.

3x8x5
We times 3x7x3=63 O/L

4x6x8
We times 4x5x6=120 O/L

4x8x6
We times 4x7x4 = 112 O/L

2X6X8
We times 2x5x6=60 O/L

2X8x6
We times 2x7x4= 56

One can see here that there is a greater spread of value having the majority to run 2nd rather than 3rd , for less O/L .

Using the pre-post market has shown to be slightly more accurate than most rating services.
Now lets see if the value plummits even more.

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

If one is going to bet the field for 3rd , one is nearly always going to cop an expensive exercise to possible return.


I agree. Boxing is probably the worst way to go, occasionally it will work out when some result goes your way, but it's probably better to take the time and even leave out the very poor poor bets and the underlay results.

In crash's example of 2x2xF there are too many combinations and it's too costly compared to the return if the result is anywhere near the predicted market order.

One way might be to dutch bet various combinations individually or to go against a higher strike rate for a better return by going 2xFx2 or for a really low strike rate Fx2x2.

Just some suggestions because the cost of the bet is the root of the problem initially.

[crash]

I only use the 2x2xfield when 1 of the 2 are at good odds. If it wins the payout can be very good if you get your 2 home 1st. and 2nd. and if the 3rd place getter is at reasonable odds [or longer] the payout can be very good indeed if your longshot wins.
2 shorties and the field are just a waste of money as basically pointed out by others here.

It all falls apart as it did for me on Sat. in Bris. in R5 when the 30/1 Fancy Express came second and Tallum [my 2nd. horse] the fav. won. If it had been the other way around it would have been a very good collect.

Same thing happened to me in Melb., but with a bit of luck I could have scored 2 very nice trifectas. The advantage of this tri. is relatively low cost if you think you can pot the first 2. I of them has to be decent odds and win.

I use it a bit like a saver. e/w on the long shot and take it with the most likely to knock it off. If the longshot wins you collect on the big win, place and a big tri.
If the shorty wins there is a healthy place collect and a reasonable tri. or at least a collect on the place of about 5/1 which generally covers costs and often, even a bit of profit.

There are 3 positive outcomes possible out of 4. The 4th. of course being losing completely.