Good old 1c poker machine mentality has hit racing's trifecta [flexi-bet].

Every mug in Aust. is having boxed field $5 trifectas.

I just won a 2x2x field race in Brisb. 1. Talum [$2.10w] and 2. Party Express [$21sp $5.80p]. Third paid $2.10 [$8.10sp]. The tri. paid a lousy $225 for a 14 horse race!!!

The exacta paid [a much healthier] $54. Much better value for money considering the cost difference between a 1 unit 2 horse boxed exacta and a 1 unit 14 horse 2x2xfield tri. [no more trifectas for me].

Considering the 25%+ TAB take out, the tri. is now a very poor value bet when every mug is a [percentage] winner!

Here is another one:

Sandown:

I had Mr Baritone for the win in Sandown r7 [sp $6.30] and a [my favorite tri.] 2x2xfield tri. for 1unit. [9 horses in the field].

Mr Baritone/Stickpin x field

Stickpin won amd Mr Baritone came 2nd. in a photo [tough luck for me] but I won the tri. which paid the 'glorious' amount of $56!

1. sp 2.10
2. sp 6.30
3. sp 10.50

A very lousy tri. for a Sat. Why?
Everyone had [a percentage of] it !!!

There was a dominant favourite in both those races Crash, so I think the standout trifectas with the favs did the damage. Also, in the melb race there were really only five horses in the market.

I also backed Mr Baritone straight out then saved in tris with Stickpin from four others. Thought I had dipped out on a result with Recapitalize appearing to run third for sure going on the post race replays.

The flexi bets are only new for Vic Tab - NSW Tab has been betting them for years.

Well I just won on Poet's Voice in the last $6.60 and had it with the fav. [2nd]. I havn't had time to check the tri [2x2xfield again] but I bet it's crap and the fav. never won [don't know who came third as I'm on the way out to vote and the handbrake is nagging me to GO NOW]!

7 - POET'S VOICE 6.40w 2.20p
1 - BISCAYNE BAY 1.70 [fav.]
3 - RAID THE ROYALS 2.20 [$7sp]
Exa 7 - 1 / 31.10
Tri 7 - 1 - 3 / 103.10

The tri. price just doesn't stack up right.

Blind Freddy can work out there are going to be a lot more tri. punters winning in the tri. prize pools [including himself] now with % tri's.


Anyone can have a Field boxed tri. or any type of tri., for any $ amount [even 50c cost] now for a % win.

Crash,

if you try that Trifecta spreadsheet formula I published here recently you should find that the fair price for that Trifecta should be 133.8584.

Based on that tote prices of 6.4, 3.9 & 7.0.

If you apply a 20% rake that price reduces to 107.0867 - which is close enough to the actual 103.10.


http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthr...1329#post131329

crash,

I had some similar bets to you guys today - but bear in mind the big punters were all over Stickpin like a cheap suit, so I reckon a lot of them had Stickpin standout with a few to fill 2nd and 3rd x volumes of units. This strategy really impacts the divvies to real underlays no matter what runs 2nd or 3rd save a bolter for 2nd. As it was Mr Baritone was also my other bet in the race, so I'm sure it didn't escape the trifecta ticket.

The Poet's voice race had Biscayne Bay run second (due to an errant seagull), so in short, when you have two highly fancied runners running first and second, there is little value to get out of boxing. To get any value, you need to stand them out as singles and put a few units on them.

It is frustrating though, when you get those sort of returns.

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These tri. bets are a nonsense considering their odds of winning and the takeout.

Tellem tri - Vic paid $225 Qld paid $181

Stickpin tri - Vic paid $56 Qld paid $39

Poet's Voice tri - Vic paid $103 Qld paid $89

Crash, all the punters in Qld are choking on their cornflakes this morning and complaining "if we had that flexi betting like in Victoria then our trifectas would pay more"

For some reason Unitab divvies are generally lower than the other Tabs right across the board.We don't have flexi bet,but you can take multiple F4's for a 25cent unit.I think Chrome hit the nail on the head,when it appears to be a race with only 2 main chances the big punters stand them out to run 1-2 with 4 or 5 others to run 3rd @ 50 or 100 units,then add in all the flexi bettors that stand them out with the field(as Crash does)then the high % takeout,and your value goes out the window,even if a 50/1 shot runs 3rd!