American Racing

[Merriguy]

Has anyone tried making a dollar from the U.S. races? Betfair churns them out all night (and early morning); but there is little (no) mention of them in these posts?

And, while speaking of Betfair, those English races (common) of over a $1 Million invested ---- does that mean Betfair are taking in 5% of half that on every race? Boy if they are then it is little wonder that they are getting awards for economic development and achievment.

[scraggerwest]

You can make money from the US - particularly as the tote takeouts have been reduced by most states. It is best to bet with an offshore operator for multis, although they cap payouts, which is no good for superfecta or pick 6 wagering. The best of the offshore operators is Pinnacle which offers rebates of between 5% and 7%. Ehorse is another. The key to winning in the US is to monitor the win pools in the last 2 minutes. Like some states of Australia, if you follow jockey / trainer combo's or jockeys and trainers with high strike rates you can generally make a reasonable earn. Another key factor is understanding the race handicapping. I generally only bet on the A class tracks such as Santa Anita, Del Mar, Hollywood, Oak Tree, Oak Lawn, Churchill Downs, Arlington, Hawthorne, Turfway and Gulfstream Park and NYRA tracks - Saratoga, Aqueduct and Belmont during the northern summer.There are arbing opportunities with Betfair, BetDaq and more recently Ehorsex. I don't do form, ratings or handicapping. I average around 7% profit p/a. An excellent site (free data) for statistics is thorostats.com. Good luck if you intend venturing into US racing.

[crash]

Good info.
I'm looking at overseas punting possibilities too. There is just not enough punters here to maintain a decent standard of racing for the number of weekly meetings run. Low standard racing [including Sat. for most of the year] has created a very difficult handicapping mish-mash, as very few horses have any form or class consistency from one prep. to the next [Just look at the rubbish races and horses to try to pick a winner from today. Wed.].

The whole show here has become one big mess and the new rating handicapping system has all the owners and trainers outraged while leaving us punters even more clueless.

[Merriguy]

Thanks guys for the replies.

Am with you in most of what you say, Crash. I was just thinking that there must be something one can do with all the races that apparently take place over there!

Thanks for all those thoughts, too, Scraggerwest (wherever did you get that name?). They give me a lot of starting points for what I will need. Appreciated.

[mad]

Yep, been at it for a while now.

As Crash already elluded to, the quality and consistency here is insufficient, particularly midweek, to sustain my interest and profitability. However between decent Provincial, Metro and the U.S a few little nuggets 'o gold can easily be found. I use Pinnacle too and find them to be as good as any, have heard of eHorse but never used them myself.

However i'm a form student, tried and true, and find "racereplays" and "TSN" to be sufficient providers of the required info. Scragger's list of tracks is spot on. Their is enough quality racing at these tracks on any given day to be worried with the others.

Might have to start a U.S racing thread soon.

Best of luck.

[Merriguy]

Thanks, Mad. Interesting!

[crash]

Might be a good idea about a US racing thread there Mad.
I was so bored with todays metro. offerings I only had 3 bets [2 in Melb. and 1 on the G.coast]. I am a form student first and foremost as my main interest in racing and I'm rapidly losing the desire to even bother here anymore with the garbage being offered up in OZ.

The 'no metro wins' rubbish at Sandown last Sat. was a good example of what we are now putting up with. Why was it a 'no metro wins' day? Because it was able to attracted a lot of runners [due to the amount of metro racing over Xmas, there would have only been very small fields otherwise] and a bigger turnover and profit for the TAB. No other reason. We are going to see a lot more of it and it sucks!

[mad]

I know how you feel Crash, however i enjoyed the idea of the Sandown meeting last week, as something different as opposed to the quality of racing on offer. Wouldn't like it every week though.

I suppose it's difficult to have non-stop group racing but essentially that's what started me on my quest to find alternatives. First and foremost i find race replays to be the key for me. Hence i now find most of my wagering following this pattern. The U.S has a good replay service "racereplays.com", TVN provides Melbourne and Sydney metro (and the odd Provincial now too), and the Hong Kong Jockey Club has free replays on it's site. Quick review of a form guide highlights potential punting prospects and the replays confirm, or perhaps more importantly, eliminate potential losing prospects. It must be added that some of these services cost a few $$$$, but from personal experience, well worth every cent.

Similarly, in keeping with my replays are king theme, i have been harassing Sky Channel and more recently Tabcorp in order to get them to produce this service. After originally being told to acquire a 3G mobile phone as the solution to my queries, i recently received an e-mail suggesting that such a service is in the works. Whether or not it ever eventuates, well we'll have to wait and see. This is encouraging news for those of us that can't stay up late to watch the replays on TV.

Anyways, enough rambling from me. I'll post a few American form guides here for you to peruse. Racereplays are good for results, free signup.

Unfortunately this site can't support files of this size, however if you'd like to have a look-see at a few Yankee form guides drop me an e-mail at: madmaher@bigpond(dot)net(dot)au

[Merriguy]

Just to bring this thread back to the top!!!

Does anyone know if the American races ever start on time? They always seem to start about ten minutes late! Am I missing something here? Makes it difficult to make any 'last minute' decisions.

[Mark]

Merriguy

I think it's more that Betfair get the times wrong, and don't bother updating the times if any change. I've seen them start 20 minutes early and up to 45 minutes late.

ESPN gives a more accurate starting time. Don't forget that video and radio are also delayed. I've been caught laying bets when they're starting to load and the race gets suspended because they've jumped.

Good luck to anyone 'doing the form' for US races. IMO they are the most inconsistent and supsicious races to bet on.

[Chrome Prince]

IMO they are the most inconsistent and supsicious races to bet on.

I agree totally.

It seems to be favourites all in a row or bolters all in a row, weird how a pattern follows for the entire night/morning.

I got caught more than once by an unseemly and unlikely string of favourites at different tracks winning consecutively, I think it was 22 in a row. Yet other times an unlikely and again unseemly pattern of bolters all in a row.

You just don't see this in Aus, U.K., Hong Kong.

There's a reason they call it "dirt" racing ;)

[mad]

Well now gentlemen i'm afraid i'll have to take hombrage at your comments.

Mark, you assert that American racing is inconsistent and suspicious based on your (or Betfair's) inability to distinguish between Eastern, Central and Pacific time. Hardly their fault. I have never found this to be the case.

Chrome, these unlikely and unseemly favourites you speak of. Would you concede that they were not all that unlikely or unseemly to the American punters?

Now i must admit that at times i have seen things that have made me wonder, as i have here in Australia. However just because i don't agree or like the results, or have a bad day or whatever, doesn't make them incorrect or "dodgy", as you are both suggesting.

[Mark]

Hi Mad

Not sure what hombrage is, but there you go.

The inconsistencies I was referring to had nothing to do with start times or Betfair. I just believe (my opinion only) that there are many boat races, so I prefer to stay away. And as Chrome alluded to, I once saw 17 favs win in a row. If you can make consistent profits, congratulations.

[mad]

Well your point is fair and well taken. Not to continue the argument, but it's a reasonable point worth discussing:

If you consider the size and quality of fields in a lot of these races, then statistically, if we have small fields of varying degrees of quality and the market ascertains that one particular horse has superior ability, then we are likely to have a situation where the favourite starts at very short odds. This would suggest that the favourite should win approx 1 in 2 races, assuming the favourite is priced accordingly, as is often the case. Under these circumstances it is hardly surprising to see the favourite win 10, 12, 20 times in a row and then get rolled 10, 12, 20 times in a row. Think heads v. tails in a coinflip.

From a statistical standpoint this would suggest that in fact the U.S market is as accurate as would be expected.

[Chrome Prince]

Dunno Mad,

It's not that they are more accurate, it's that 22 consecutive favourites in a row in more than a two horse race is statistically improbable. This doesn't happen rarely either.
I don't think that Americans are better judges by thousands of percents than anywhere else in the world.

Bear in mind these horses were not all odds on, not even all even money, many of them were around the $2.80 to $3.30 mark.

As Mark said, boat races.

I would expect them to win more than 1 in 2, but only if there were two horses in the race, these were fields of up to 10 starters.

Of course it could be my bad luck, but months later I took another look to have a very similar result happen, so won't be going anywhere near it in future.