Mark does a Maria (2 day trial)

[Mark]

Interesting to note that with the exponential growth in the size of Maria's bets, her balance doubled in the last month, with a sizable chunk of that being made on the last day. Also, the average price of her lay's on the last day was 7.75, with nothing being particularly short, and an overall strike rate of 85.88%, so IMO her success has a lot to do with her staking.

I realise that 2 days info is nowhere near enough to gauge long term profitability, but there you go. Hopefully at least 80% of them will do the right thing and get beaten.

I will put up lays for today and tomorrow, using a theoretical bank of $3000 and use the exact price range and % stake that Maria did.

Any comments, good bad or indifferent are most welcome.

Balance $3000
0-3.5 $30
3.55-7.4 $18
7.6-11 $12

Todays losers.

G1 6 CLEARLOVE
G2 4 SCHIBELLO
G3 2 PRINCESS PEDRILLE
G4 2 CLERIC
G5 8 KING CLIP
G6 13 SO FANTASTIC
G7 3 GRAND TRAVERSE
G8 6 NOTICED

S1 2 YOU'RE FANTASTIC
S2 7 MERRIER
S3 12 GOLDEN DAISY
S4 1 BOORTKOI DRAGON
S5 10 GET THEM TIGRESS
S6 10 MYCOLADA
S7 5 ELECTRONIC MILLION
S8 9 IN AN INSTANT
S9 7 PRIZED PACKET

Michael, if you read this, what was you're overall strike rate for your lay's thread? Perhaps with Maria's staking you would have been better off?

[michaelg]

Good luck, Mark.

I assume you will deduct 5% from the winning bets, and will you use a daily staking plan as Maria did, or will it be from race to race as she wanted to do but could not stay glued to her computer? I also assume that you will exclude any horse outside the $11 range?

There were 376 selections in my lay method for 68 winners ("accidents" as Maria so aptly calls them). This was including the periods when I had the p.p market limit of $3.50 (later changed to $3.00) and also included horses resuming from a break which I again later eliminated. By my calcs that was a strike rate of approx 82 winners every 100 selections.

Yes, maybe using Maria's staking method my results might have been better. It is certainly something to think about.

Again, good luck. I'm sure many of us forumites will be very interested in your lays.

[Mark]

Michael, yes I'll take out 5% from winning bets, and stick to day to day updates.

I am actually placing the bets for these 2 days. 2 out of 2 so far @ 6.4 & 2.8.

I'm pretty sure you would show a profit with your 82% strike rate as a lot of them were short.

[Mark]

S3 12 GOLDEN DAISY

No comments about the 50's + winner??, I'm disappointed.
Remember, these are my 3rd pick in the race.

[Mark]

Add these Albany lay's to the mix.

A1 5 COUNTRY JOY
A2 13 STARQUIST
A3 4 AMBA ALE
A4 7 OPEN EYRE
A5 5 IRON MONGER
A6 2 CLASSY GRACE
A7 1 LITTLESIXFOOT

[YoungBuck]

I wouldnt be too disappointed, that was obviously way out of price range and would have been left alone, no? Although it makes you question the selection process. A bit early to worry about. Good luck with it anyway.

[michaelg]

Mark, as the Lays are the 3rd choice of your "bet" selections I would be somewhat concerned.

Have you checked the 2230 races to see how the 3rd choice would have fared if you had eliminated those over $11 just as you are doing for the current lay method? In other words, is it possible those that started under $11.10 may have shown a profit?

Having said that, I am looking at a lay system based on prices, and as a matter of coincidence my selections in Sale race 5 and Gosford race 5 were also your selections - they were both beaten.

[Mark]

Hi Buck

I was disappointed in the merchants of gloom, I thought they would have jumped on me for that selection. I'm still doing my normal betting and backed that winner. It was the 3rd 50+ winner I've jagged this week!
You're right it was way out of the price range for a lay.

Michael

I'm using the 3rd pick as the lay simply because my records show that I get the winner in my top 2 around 46% of the time, but the winners drop away with my 3rd pick. I realise it's not ideal, but should be able to get some losers that are in the market. I didn't delve into the prices. So far so good today, 9 lays for only 1 winner @ 4.6. At prices between 2.8 & 10, plus 4 out of the range.

I'll put up full selections/results for today & tomorrow, then think about it over the weekend as to whether I start seriously on Monday.

[AngryPixie]

Mark

Does your selection method ever throw up equal 3rd picks? What will you do then?

I'll run Maria's staking over my current lay method (presently at 155 losers from 167 selections). I do lay the occasional 10/1 plus runner so I might go 0.2% of bank for those and see how it goes.

Nice picks so far today. Don't stop after 2 days!!!!

Pixie

[Mark]

Pixie

I think there will be plenty of action without worrying about trying to split equal 3rd picks. If I do come across equal picks I'll just brush the race. Sods law says if you go for one, more often than not you'll be wrong.
I don't think I'll be stopping, just a 2 day trial to see how it goes.

155 out of 167, WOW!!! that's 92.8% !!!, go to it young man, don't wait another day, apply Maria's gold to your lays.

[Chrome Prince]

Here's my comments on Maria's system.

It's one thing laying to her staking plan on UK racing and a whole different ballgame on AUS racing.

For example:

Odds on horses lose a lot more in the UK, because most of them are over jumps and two to three miles. Many of them do not win like odds on chances either, often they just get in or flop. It's rare to see them win by more than a few lengths.

Opposing that in AUS many odds on horses win and at Betfair prices you almost break even.

The most money I've made is laying odds on horses in the UK over jumps.
If I applied this to AUS racing I'd just sneak in a very slim profit.

This is why her staking plan was so successful.

[Mark]

Chrome, I think you'll find over time, the number of favs that win will even out and be very close to what happens here. Have at look at Adrian Massey's site. In regard to Maria's system, I only looked at the first couple of pages and the last couple. On the last day she did not seem to lay a lot of favourites, and the average price was around 7.70.

[Mark]

[QUOTE=Mark]
Balance $3000
0-3.5 $30
3.55-7.4 $18
7.6-11 $12

Todays losers.

G1 6 CLEARLOVE no bet
G2 4 SCHIBELLO 7.4 +17.10
G3 2 PRINCESS PEDRILLE 10 +11.40
G4 2 CLERIC 4.6 -64.80
G5 8 KING CLIP 9.4 +11.40
G6 13 SO FANTASTIC no bet
G7 3 GRAND TRAVERSE no bet
G8 6 NOTICED no bet

S1 2 YOU'RE FANTASTIC 6.4 +17.10
S2 7 MERRIER 2.8f +28.50
S3 12 GOLDEN DAISY no bet
S4 1 BOORTKOI DRAGON no bet
S5 10 GET THEM TIGRESS 7.0 +17.10
S6 10 MYCOLADA no bet
S7 5 ELECTRONIC MILLION 9.0 +11.40
S8 9 IN AN INSTANT no bet
S9 7 PRIZED PACKET 5.8 +17.10

A1 5 COUNTRY JOY 5.6 +17.10
A2 13 STARQUIST 3.7f +17.10
A3 4 AMBA ALE 4.7 +17.10
A4 7 OPEN EYRE no bet
A5 5 IRON MONGER no bet
A6 2 CLASSY GRACE 10.5 +11.40
A7 1 LITTLESIXFOOT no bet


24 picks, 13 bets, 12 winners, 92.3% strike rate.
Total profit = + $129.00, or +4.3% of balance.

Friday's starting balance $3129
Bets will be $31.29 (1%), $18.77 (0.6%), and $12.51 (0.4%).

A promising start.

From all of my selections, (which admittedly I did not post), top 2 picks won 46%, 3rd pick won 8%, and the winner was not in my top 3 in 46% of races. Which is pretty close to my long term average of 46/13/41. 3rd pick was less than normal which accounts for the good start.

Comments, ideas anyone???

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome, I think you'll find over time, the number of favs that win will even out and be very close to what happens here. Have at look at Adrian Massey's site. In regard to Maria's system, I only looked at the first couple of pages and the last couple. On the last day she did not seem to lay a lot of favourites, and the average price was around 7.70.

I'm not suggesting that the number of winning favourites changes, just the strike rate of shorter favourites.

I'm also suggesting to be careful when laying those under $3.00, according to my calculations, you'd lose money laying them all, unless you have an angle.

[Mark]

I still think you'll find that the breakdown of winners prices would be very similar. I do agree about laying all under 3.0, however, there was only 1 today and it got beat.

[wesmip1]

Mark, CP,

I ran this against one of my laying methods to see how it would have performed in the last week (Feb 16th till Feb 22nd inclusive).

There were 37 winners from 187 lays (strike rate of 19.7%).

The total return minus betfair commission was 36.9% profit.

Assuming a bank of $3,000 and laying as Mark was with 30, 18, 12 amounts your total profit would have been $1,107

Thats not a bad return for a week. It might just have been a lucky week though.

I might try it over the next few days and see what it returns. Not one of the days returned a loss.

Good Luck.

[michaelg]

Yes, Mark, a very promising start, and also very encouraging seeing that the strike rate of your top three selections did not deviate from the long term average.

I remember reading in one of Don Scott's books that it is silly to bet the same amount on each horse, particularly when betting multiple horses in the same race, and that the amount wagered should be weighted as per your rating/price even if there's only one horse in a particular race. Going on this, the bookie would therefore prefer you to ignore D.Scott's advice and to bet the same amount on each horse

If the bookie prefers you to bet the same amount on each horse it would therefore be logical for Betfair layers to do the same by laying horses for the same amount.

I wonder how Maria would have fared if she had done this and had also increased her stake proportionate to the day's result just as she actually did after a winning day.

Out of interest, I compared this with your system today - the result/profit was almost identical to yours.

Another observation - as Maria's strike rate was so good I would not be surprised if a more aggressive staking plan would have produced even more phenomenal results. If this is really the case, then you and Angry Pixie might consider a stronger staking plan?

[AngryPixie]

155 out of 167, WOW!!! that's 92.8% !!!, go to it young man, don't wait another day, apply Maria's gold to your lays.Mark

Hi thanks yes it is going along ok. Only returning around 7-8% level POT but the projections look promising so it's all churn, churn, churn. I'm only working it on Saturday, Night, Holiday and Sick Day gallops meetings. It's quite selective with only around 10 or so lays on an average Saturday.

At the moment I'm laying to a fixed liability of 10% of my bank, using the TwoNix MiniMax staking method. I'm stepping that up to 11.67% starting this Saturday.

Anyway it's what you've started doing that everybody is interested in.

Pixie

[odericko]

open apology to mark to whom ive apparrently abused in the past ...for what i dont really know i am a drunk and i dont think that is a just excuse so cap in hand please accept this humble or pathetic apology ......ty

[burrah]

I've only been lurking here since just before Xmas.
I would never consider a lay before, but I decided to follow michaelg's picks for a lay. Then I got hooked and decided to try my own system. I started out on second favourites, but quickly noticed 3rd picks were better. I went 3 dayds without haviing to make a payout.
Didn't last long though, though. I copped 3 $60 dollar + payouts in one day.
Anyhow, i srarted with 100 dollars and I am now up to $1200 after about 4 weeks.My starting bets were $6 but now are $10. I use a free "betting assistant" to help me pick the "real" third favourite.
I also used a system similar to Maria's but not as good, so I'm going to apply her staking plan from tomorrow with a fictive $2000 bank.

[michaelg]

Hi, Burrah.

Do you lay every third-fave or do you apply some sort of filter?

Good luck with your lays.

[crash]

Mark's progress:

$3000 bank.
24 picks, 13 bets, 12 winners, 92.3% strike rate.
Total profit = + $129.00, or +4.3% of balance.



For the poor among us:

$300 bank = $12.90 profit divided by X amount of hours effort = y$ per hr. profit [?]

On the up-side though, the hourly rate here should gradually improve:-)

[Mark]

Friday
Bank: $3129
Bets: $31.29, $18.77 and $12.51.

Now the all important losers.

Albury
R1 3 BARNESSA
R2 8 EASY DOZEN
R3 9 MR MELBA
R4 6 PREDOMINANCE
R5 6 MEXICAN WIND
R6 10 CONCHITTA
R7 5 STASH OF GOLD
R8 2 REGAL HAWK

Doomben
R1 7 HALF CIRCLE
R5 2 GLORIOSA HONEY
R6 12 SPECIAL DAD
R7 3 INNOCENTLY
R8 3 TELFIRE
R9 4 ANCIENT TITLES

Kyneton
R1 10 SILVER ELEGANT
R2 7 FIVECLOCKSOMEWHERE
R3 10 RAPID GIRL
R4 2 OKILLY DOKILLY
R5 9 MIDNIGHT MARMALADE
R6 5 PRINCE OF SCRIBES
R7 13 CHEEKY LAUREN
R8 6 CALABISCA

Penola
R1 2 MR CONTROLLER
R2 5 SERENADES
R3 8 ZENAL
R4 5 BLUSHING NEMO
R5 6 LIONETTE
R6 1 DIAMONDS AT DAWN
R7 3 JARAQ STAAR

Quirindi
R1 10 OUR SHINING LIGHT
R2 6 HILLSTAND
R3 7 STAND BY YOUR MAN
R4 3 PRE NUP
R5 1 MIDNIGHT AVENUE
R6 6 SUN VEGAS
R7 5 TEEPEE GEEGEE
R9 8 AIN'T NO SUNSHINE

A years worth of equal 2nd or 3rd raters, explains the several missing races. A repeat of yesterday's strike rate would be pleasing.

[Merriguy]

One of the problems with Oz racing is surely that the pools are so small that an hour or so before the race there may be nothing to match.

For example, at this moment, the first at Quirindi has a whole $30 in kitty. Doesn't this effectively stymie the idea that Maria encouraged of set and forget?

P.S. Nice work yesterday, Mark

[burrah]

Hi, Burrah.

Do you lay every third-fave or do you apply some sort of filter?

Good luck with your lays.I use the following system , which can end up more of an art than science.
First I look at the the deduction factor ( which I use as the PP)then the the actul fav with the lowest odds and the horse with the highest amount of money on it. When a horse has all these stars aligned, it is obviously the favourite.Same for second fav and third fav. Things get interesting when one horse has, say, the lowest odds, another has the highest reduction factor and a third has the most money on it. then I have to make a personal call. BTH all this only takes a minute as I only look at a race for the first time 3-4 minutes before the start.
Regards

[Mark]

Friday
Bank: $3129
Bets: $31.29, $18.77 and $12.51.

Now the all important losers.

Albury
R1 3 BARNESSA +29.72
R2 8 EASY DOZEN +11.88
R3 9 MR MELBA +11.88
R4 6 PREDOMINANCE +11.88
R5 6 MEXICAN WIND -65.71
R6 10 CONCHITTA +17.83
R7 5 STASH OF GOLD +17.83
R8 2 REGAL HAWK no bet

Doomben
R1 7 HALF CIRCLE no bet
R5 2 GLORIOSA HONEY no bet
R6 12 SPECIAL DAD no bet..........another big price winner!!!
R7 3 INNOCENTLY +17.83
R8 3 TELFIRE +17.83
R9 4 ANCIENT TITLES +17.83

Kyneton
R1 10 SILVER ELEGANT no bet
R2 7 FIVECLOCKSOMEWHERE no bet
R3 10 RAPID GIRL +11.88
R4 2 OKILLY DOKILLY +17.83
R5 9 MIDNIGHT MARMALADE no bet
R6 5 PRINCE OF SCRIBES no bet
R7 13 CHEEKY LAUREN no bet
R8 6 CALABISCA no bet

Penola
R1 2 MR CONTROLLER +17.83
R2 5 SERENADES +17.83
R3 8 ZENAL +17.83
R4 5 BLUSHING NEMO no bet
R5 6 LIONETTE -105.09
R6 1 DIAMONDS AT DAWN -51.62
R7 3 JARAQ STAAR no bet

Quirindi
R1 10 OUR SHINING LIGHT no bet
R2 6 HILLSTAND +17.83
R3 7 STAND BY YOUR MAN no bet
R4 3 PRE NUP -71.33
R5 1 MIDNIGHT AVENUE no bet
R6 6 SUN VEGAS no bet
R7 5 TEEPEE GEEGEE +11.88
R9 8 AIN'T NO SUNSHINE no bet

.

Not a good day.
37 selections
20 bets
4 winners (80% win rate)

Loss of $26.33
New bank would be $3102, and bets would remain the same.

Winners in my top 2 were down.
Winning 3rd picks were up, hence the small loss today.

I still believe there is merit in this and will be starting from scratch on Monday.

[odericko]

mark u r joking when u said not a good day...i made 200 plus on your selections ty very much and that is big bikkies for me....ty again

[Chrome Prince]

Mark,
Just some observations - for what it's worth.

I have looked at thousands of races now through an access database of Betfair prices and fluctuations.

If you layed every horse in every race in the final minute before they jump, you'd make a killing. You just need a huge bank to cover the longshot liability.

Laying favourites, you get close to breaking even with a very slight profit.

An interesting observation is that the average price traded on any runner is extremely close to the final price, which surprised me greatly. Especially as I thought the longer priced horses go out to 100/1 and 200/1 in the final minutes, but what is shown is not necessarily what's traded.

If you LAY every horse in the $3.00 to $8.00 range, you make a decent profit also, but if you back favourites over $3.00 you also make a profit.

This is with no other filters and every aussie horse race Betfair have a market on.

One thing stands out massively though, I could not understand how I made a killing laying certain horses, as the database showed almost breakeven with just a smidgen of profit.

The answer lay (forgive the pun) in obtaining better (or worse) than the average traded price or final price.

Being able to weight my bets according to underlay, I made significant profit, and testing this over thousands of races, it solidified my philosophy.

The Golden Goose doesn't lay it's eggs with 5 minutes to go, or as they are loaded, the bird flies in an erratic pattern dropping golden eggs along the way, if you have the will to bring a basket and spend time collecting those eggs, it all adds up to pure gold ;)

[Mark]

Well, i was going to give day 3 lays for the 2 day trial, but the site I use for the form just refuses to open. grrrrrrrrrrrr

Chrome, I would like nothing better than to lay every runner at the back prices in the last minute or so, but I just cannot type fast enough. I reckon a team of experienced Betfairian's working together would be able to clean up making last minute books on just about everything.

[Mark]

Finally managed to get in and do the numbers. I won't insult anyone by putting up the lays, but will report if anything out of the ordinary happens.

Hopefully won't have problems on Monday.

[Mark]

Would not have been good today.
23 selections
15 lays
3 winners @ 3.0, 8.0 & 8.4............those 2 longer priced winners really killing it. The loss would have been just over $60.

[michaelg]

Mark, in spite of yesterday you can still take encouragement because not only has the strike rate has been below the average but more importantly, it would still be in profit.

[AngryPixie]

Would not have been good today.
23 selections
15 lays
3 winners @ 3.0, 8.0 & 8.4............those 2 longer priced winners really killing it. The loss would have been just over $60.
Mark

For what it's worth Saturday was my worst day on the lay using my current method. 3 winners in my first 6 lays, I could hardly believe it. Does test your resolve. Played catch up for the rest of the day and finished a massive $7.00 up!

Enjoying your posts

Pixie