Interesting to note that with the exponential growth in the size of Maria's bets, her balance doubled in the last month, with a sizable chunk of that being made on the last day. Also, the average price of her lay's on the last day was 7.75, with nothing being particularly short, and an overall strike rate of 85.88%, so IMO her success has a lot to do with her staking.

I realise that 2 days info is nowhere near enough to gauge long term profitability, but there you go. Hopefully at least 80% of them will do the right thing and get beaten.

I will put up lays for today and tomorrow, using a theoretical bank of $3000 and use the exact price range and % stake that Maria did.

Any comments, good bad or indifferent are most welcome.

Balance $3000
0-3.5 $30
3.55-7.4 $18
7.6-11 $12

Todays losers.

G1 6 CLEARLOVE
G2 4 SCHIBELLO
G3 2 PRINCESS PEDRILLE
G4 2 CLERIC
G5 8 KING CLIP
G6 13 SO FANTASTIC
G7 3 GRAND TRAVERSE
G8 6 NOTICED

S1 2 YOU'RE FANTASTIC
S2 7 MERRIER
S3 12 GOLDEN DAISY
S4 1 BOORTKOI DRAGON
S5 10 GET THEM TIGRESS
S6 10 MYCOLADA
S7 5 ELECTRONIC MILLION
S8 9 IN AN INSTANT
S9 7 PRIZED PACKET

Michael, if you read this, what was you're overall strike rate for your lay's thread? Perhaps with Maria's staking you would have been better off?

Good luck, Mark.

I assume you will deduct 5% from the winning bets, and will you use a daily staking plan as Maria did, or will it be from race to race as she wanted to do but could not stay glued to her computer? I also assume that you will exclude any horse outside the $11 range?

There were 376 selections in my lay method for 68 winners ("accidents" as Maria so aptly calls them). This was including the periods when I had the p.p market limit of $3.50 (later changed to $3.00) and also included horses resuming from a break which I again later eliminated. By my calcs that was a strike rate of approx 82 winners every 100 selections.

Yes, maybe using Maria's staking method my results might have been better. It is certainly something to think about.

Again, good luck. I'm sure many of us forumites will be very interested in your lays.

Michael, yes I'll take out 5% from winning bets, and stick to day to day updates.

I am actually placing the bets for these 2 days. 2 out of 2 so far @ 6.4 & 2.8.

I'm pretty sure you would show a profit with your 82% strike rate as a lot of them were short.

S3 12 GOLDEN DAISY

No comments about the 50's + winner??, I'm disappointed.
Remember, these are my 3rd pick in the race.

Add these Albany lay's to the mix.

A1 5 COUNTRY JOY
A2 13 STARQUIST
A3 4 AMBA ALE
A4 7 OPEN EYRE
A5 5 IRON MONGER
A6 2 CLASSY GRACE
A7 1 LITTLESIXFOOT

I wouldnt be too disappointed, that was obviously way out of price range and would have been left alone, no? Although it makes you question the selection process. A bit early to worry about. Good luck with it anyway.

__________________
All generalizations are dangerous.

Mark, as the Lays are the 3rd choice of your "bet" selections I would be somewhat concerned.

Have you checked the 2230 races to see how the 3rd choice would have fared if you had eliminated those over $11 just as you are doing for the current lay method? In other words, is it possible those that started under $11.10 may have shown a profit?

Having said that, I am looking at a lay system based on prices, and as a matter of coincidence my selections in Sale race 5 and Gosford race 5 were also your selections - they were both beaten.

Hi Buck

I was disappointed in the merchants of gloom, I thought they would have jumped on me for that selection. I'm still doing my normal betting and backed that winner. It was the 3rd 50+ winner I've jagged this week!
You're right it was way out of the price range for a lay.

Michael

I'm using the 3rd pick as the lay simply because my records show that I get the winner in my top 2 around 46% of the time, but the winners drop away with my 3rd pick. I realise it's not ideal, but should be able to get some losers that are in the market. I didn't delve into the prices. So far so good today, 9 lays for only 1 winner @ 4.6. At prices between 2.8 & 10, plus 4 out of the range.

I'll put up full selections/results for today & tomorrow, then think about it over the weekend as to whether I start seriously on Monday.

Mark

Does your selection method ever throw up equal 3rd picks? What will you do then?

I'll run Maria's staking over my current lay method (presently at 155 losers from 167 selections). I do lay the occasional 10/1 plus runner so I might go 0.2% of bank for those and see how it goes.

Nice picks so far today. Don't stop after 2 days!!!!

Pixie

Pixie

I think there will be plenty of action without worrying about trying to split equal 3rd picks. If I do come across equal picks I'll just brush the race. Sods law says if you go for one, more often than not you'll be wrong.
I don't think I'll be stopping, just a 2 day trial to see how it goes.

155 out of 167, WOW!!! that's 92.8% !!!, go to it young man, don't wait another day, apply Maria's gold to your lays.