Make 1% a week

[ubetido]

Hi all

So if one had a bank of say $100000 and wanted to make 1% per week (1000) what strategy would most likely succeed.

Assuming a person has selections or ratings already selected by an external source. Generally the strike rates a closely similar
20-25% 1st selection
15-20% 2nd selection
10-15% 3rd selection

One would want to protect the bank as much as possible and would have 7 days of betting available to them per week.

Covering all codes it would add up to around 4000 races a month.

Win small amounts but lots of them as like a progression and betting more than one animal in the race

Be selective and put bigger bets on expsoing more risk to bank with outs etc and betting just one selection

This person is retired and wants to make an income without paying tax so even 0.5% is sufficient or (500) per week

Cheers
ubetido

[partypooper]

Ubetido, you and I had a run many moons ago, totally my fault, or should I say the fault of the old amber fluid?? anyway I appologise for that, but for your current question....... YUP, I have been working on it for a while....... now I have to be careful when I say that I think I have cracked the problem, cos although I have done it so far (and have had several trips around the world on the proceeds) there is absolutely NO guarantee that it will hold up in the future. Having said that my cash is on, I AM confident.

You have to start where the winners are (or in my case the placings), if you go for win betting, probably a better POT is obtainable BUT the runs of outs are a real test. I prefer betting for the place, it just suits my personality better. I want VERY regular returns!!

So "TOP RATED SELECTIONS" is where you start, in my case I use Tab- Form 100 raters as i can't stand the thought of paying for Ratings, but from what I've heard a top class Ratings Service is probably better.

Then I apply several rules, mostly the usual, i.e. 21 days, win in exposed form etc etc + a few of my own,

The result a slender POT, BUT I DON"T LOSE!!

And if you wanna know how I get those trips around the world out of it??? you will need to contact me on, Lumbasakabayo at Hotmale dot comm (cryptic)

Good luck!

[ubetido]

Hi Partypooper

Thanks for your reply, can't recall having a run with you as i generally don't what i do remember is that you did have some ideas in regards to betting for a place.

Yes run of outs is a concern with betting just one to win when its on a bad run it takes some good priced winners to get you back out of the ditch one has dug.


Cheers
ubetido

[partypooper]

Ubetido, yes I think it's the hardest thing to overcome the fact that the horror runs are inevitable, i.e. just the way the cookie crumbles, but also the fantastic runs are also inevitable, so I contend (still) that you have to ride out the adverse times and capitalise on the good times. So although my bread and butter is from LEVEL STAKES, the boredom is broken by % betting of a second bank to liven things up.
If place betting with a decent S/R say 70%+, this could be say 20% NEVER REDUCING, now yes for certain that bank will be wiped out sometimes ACCEPT this, it's those fantastic run of hits were trying to get onto, you can even have a maximum figure to reach then stop, draw out the cash, put some of it aside for some back-up banks and start again.
I will send you an example down the line (an actual run)

[Bhagwan]

Heres a place staking plan that I came accross, that capitalises on a good run & pulls back on a bad run.

Bet 1/9th of bank , up & down on remainder of bank.
Bet 1/5th of bank after a placegetter is struck.
Bet 1/7th of bank after a loss
Bet 1/9th of bank after another loss.

It seems to work well if one has a 70% SR.

One method of selecting Placegetters that has its good days is...
Target races with 12 & less runners.
Target all the horses paying $5.00 & less for the win.
Target the hoses from this group that has the strogest UniTAB rating
e.g. take 100pts over 98pts.
Bet this for a place if it is paying $1.40+ ,no bet race if selection is less than this.

One has to have patience if one wishes to take on this approach.

It works just as well on Dogs & Trots.

Check out some past results before betting any real money with this.

Cheers.

[partypooper]

G'day Baghwan, yes you seem to have nailed it there with your suggestion of a plan that shows a LEVEL STAKES PROFIT (the acid test) personaly though, hanging around to see if "MAYBE" it pay $1.40 for the place kills it for me.

All my plans are worked on the presumption that bets can be placed even the night b4 racing.

Even where a specific price is required (YES this is available, I'm doing it) otherwise it is just too hard!!

Good luck!

[stugots]

the '100' unitab raters have caused me a bit grief partypooper, whilst developing a 'lay' selection method based around the higher unitab ratings.

its not the shorties that are the real problem, more so those 100 raters that regularily get up @ $5.0+.

way i solved the problem? if its rated 100, then NO lay

[partypooper]

stugots, I've never got into laying but what you say seems to make sense to me.

[ubetido]

Hi all

Yes some valid points made. This is a new area for me as i have mainly concentrated on Trifectas.

I do feel there is a way of betting win and place and getting good returns even if it is going to win $1 per race.

Some may laugh at this but think about it there are approx 50000 races a year across all codes.

Cheers
ubetido

[xanadu]

Sorry for butting in fellahs......
the best "system" to return more than 1 % POT is to follow Darren Beadman in the jockey challenge each and every raceday!
You will definitely return a respectable ROI.

Cheers.

[stugots]

been considering just that xanadu!

along with the 100 raters, beadman is one i never lay

[xanadu]

post10,

As I said you can do no better than follow D. Beadman in the jockey challenge.
Look at today...4 winners so far(3:51p.m.EST) so he cannot be realistically caught by any other rider!
I heard the NSWTAB quotes this morning ...he was paying something like $1.70!
Obviously, this may have shortened dramatically...but, it is a pretty sure bet isn't it?

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

Heres a wild idea using the $100,000 betting with Sportsbet for the place.

1) Target race 1 only for all meetings 7 days a week.
The reason for this, is that stats show race one has the highest SR for win & place, for whatever the reason, than any other race number, when it comes to Favs.

2) Target the stand alone pre-post Fav from say Racingandsports.

3) If duel pre-post Favs , no-bet race.

4) Must have a UniTAB rating of 90pts+ , if it is less , its a no-bet race.

5) Fields 5-12 runners.

6) Must be paying $1.30+ for the place, otherwise its a no bet race.

Betting for a place only.

7) Start each betting week on a Sunday & end on a Saturday.

The reason for this is, is that's its not a strong idea to have 2 heavy betting days , one after the other. It's another exposure to risk that does not need to be there if we can help it.

If for some reason we lose the first bank of $23,430 within that week, wait until the following Sunday before betting recommences again with a new bank.
This is done on the premise that punters can be exposed to bad weeks just like they are to bad days & we are attempting to minimise unneccesary exposure where possible.

As soon as $1,000 profit is made for the week, stop betting for that week. Then wait until Sunday, then commence betting again. (Optional)
The reason for this is that there is no reason to expose ourselves to further risk if the target of $1000 has been reached for that week.

Staking plan.
30 150 750 3,750 18,750 = 23,430
This allows for 5 outs.
That's if they will accept a bet of this size.
Dont go any furthur than this , time to start the next bank, next week (Sun), that's if one has the courage.

Have 4 banks of $23,430

It's SR for the place, is exteemly high.

As an idea , just for the interest of the forumites, to run the results each day to see if $1000 a week is possible.
No need to run the selections , punters can do that themselves, just the daily results.
Stopping for the week as soon as $1,000 is made.

As an example
For Sat 9th Apr made several hundred dollars for the day.


Cheers.