Value Betting Pre-Post

[Bhagwan]

Heres a method that has its good days , especially in large fields & wet tracks..
The more open the race the better it seems to work.

Pull up pre-post market as per Racingandsports or any Newspaper market.
1) Target the 4th 5th 6th 7th horse mentioned in the pre-post market.
There is some real value amongst this lot.

2) Note down their respective prices & compare to the TAB or Bookie price.

3) Bet all the 4th-7th pre-post horses that are paying less on the TAB or Bookie, (Unders) compared to Pre-post market.
e.g. $20 pre-post & $15.00 on TAB , this becomes a bet.
Bet all qualifiers.

We are assuming that if there are shorteners in the market , there might be some confidence in the horse to produce something on the day.

Some of the prices that get up are suprisingly very good, with a number of double digit winners.

Of course it only works well if the first 3 pre-post dont decide to get up all day so its an idea to only target races where the Fav has a chance of falling over.

I personally like betting in races where the Favs are in the TAB price range of $2.10-2.90 ,if they get rolled , the others can pay anything.

Bet same amount on each qualifying selection , level stakes.

Go over some past records to see for ones self.
It did very well today, Mon 27 Mar.

Cheers.

[Chiquita]

Hi Bhagwan, any particular reason wet tracks a positive factor to success with this method? Pre-post markets more or less based on good track form??

[Bhagwan]

Sometimes wet tracks play havoc with the popular horses , but then again one can find examples of that happening on good tracks aswell.

I am not suggesting to use it just on wet tracks only.

Cheers.

[Chiquita]

Gotcha Bhagwan, thanks :)

[suds]

assume re point 3 Bhagwan that you decide on which horses to punt on, in last few minutes of betting?

[Chiquita]

assume re point 3 Bhagwan that you decide on which horses to punt on, in last few minutes of betting?

Backing with the bookies sounds like it's the way to go!

[Bhagwan]

If betting on the TAB I wait until the 0 time is shown on UniTAB this give 60 secs to get on.

If betting on NSW TAB I would place all bets at the 1 min till off point, because it is so slow & cumbersome compared to UniTAB.

Cheers.

[westi]

Doesn't leave much time for up to 4 bets (different investment amount, the conventional way)
Hope you have a fast reliable link

[westi]

Backing with the bookies sounds like it's the way to go!

agree

[watsonnek]

Bhagwan, what's your definition of a large field? eg. 10+, 12+, 14+ etc
And do you worry about barrier draws with the big fields? I personally favour outside draws on wet tracks.

[Sporty]

from my experience..you shouldn't reach a generalised conclusion re positive or negative factor of barrier draw without taking into account normal racing style of the related mule & the track hosting the race ..eg. a wide barrier draw for a mule that normally settles back in a field & running at Flemington (over x distance) is unlikely to be at a disadvantage whilst the same horse running at Moonee Valley (over x distance) is likely to be disadvantaged..

[partypooper]

Sporty, you are absolutely right today, but tomorrow I might disagree, (Gemini you see)

I once had an arts class where a subject sat in the middle of the room and all students (I think there was about 10) were instructed to draw what they saw........ the result was 10 COMPLETLY different views,.... get my drift??

"Imagine" (dare I use the word") that you are betting PURELY to a mechanical system of selection,..... you know the draw will be against you "SOMETIMES" you know that if you bet "all" regardless that some will dissapoint and some will surprise, so now you annalyse the results over a LONG LONG period of time and decide that there was 15c difference, if you had discarded that draw or the other one etc. etc. and so decided instead to disregard the draw totally!!! get the idea????

Just trying to show that different "ANGLE"

[Bhagwan]

I dont take any notice of barrier draws , if anything I would favour wide barrier draws especially in races with 12 runners & less.

If one would like some proof to test the idea of wide barriers.
Target races with 12 & less runners.
Target the top 2 tipster's selections & bet the wider barrier of the 2 horses or
Target the 1st & 2nd TAB or pre-post Favs, betting the wider barrier of the two horses
In fields of 12 & less runners

One will see days where the wider barrier dominates & other days the inside barrier dominates proceedings.
The SR will be almost identical over say 150 winning results, but the wider barrier will pay a slightly larger average divided.
Run the idea over say 150 known results to see for oneself.

What I call a large field is 11+ runners.
I found its SR the strongest in fields of 10-12 runners.
Some of the larger divs were found in 14+ runner fields
If one wanted more spread , I guess one could also include the 3rd horse mentioned (Optional) along with the 4th-7th selections.
Betting the unders compared pre-post to actual TAB.

For speedy bet placement one can use the bet placement matrix , one just punches in the 1-4 numbers then click, if the same amount is being bet on each horse.
On UniTAB pro-bet it takes about 6 secs. to bet 4 numbers.

If one is using staggered amounts it doent take long to calculate ones bets if doing it manually.
It depends how slow one is doing the calculations.
There is usually only 1-2 bets most times, very rearly 4 horses, so how much time does one realy need?

I use a program called Racetext International which does all the calulations for me & sends the bets off to the TAB in about 4 seconds.
It can do this regardless of how many combinations one has e.g. Dutch bet hole field of 15 runners, minus the FAV & place the bet onto your nominated TAB with staggered amounts for each horse, in 4 secs with 100% accuracy.
Its a great punting tool if one is into Dutch betting of Multiple runners , Quinellas, Exactas, Trifectors.
Try doing that manually.
It also can track money movement & pool sizes for each individual horse at any given stage e.g. 1-15 min out from jump time.
With either graphical or digital layout .


Cheers.