Pixie's Pix

[AngryPixie]

If you've been reading my lay thread "Some Oz lay selections" http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=15751 you'll know I've been testing a lay selection method that unfortunately turns up some nice priced winners in the price range "11.50 and greater"*. Lays in the price range "11.00 and less" have managed to produce a profit but laying anything outside this range look's pretty fatal. Some quick calculations suggests that backing the selections 11.50 and greater should continue to produce some decent priced winners. I'll admit defeat in laying these so I'll turn the testing around and suggest these are backed to win instead.

20070421 ASCT05-01 Is Amazing 4.00 ... WON -3.00
20070421 ASCT08-03 Boy Canny Go 8.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 CRAN08-05 Archachon 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 CRAN08-07 Mr Wang 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 E_FM01-08 Gonzalo 19.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 E_FM02-07 Leica Launch 15.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 E_FM06-01 Magically 6.40 ... WON -5.40
20070421 E_FM06-02 Love And Money 7.40 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 E_FM06-09 No Mistake 46.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 GCST05-04 The Chanster 4.10 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 GCST08-05 Tag 15.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 HAWK03-01 Hadaaf 7.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 HAWK03-06 Count Milano 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 HAWK04-10 Hesiod 11.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 MORP01-02 Dandy Jester 27.00 ... WON +26.00
20070421 MORP01-03 Foolish Lad 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 MORP02-02 Exalted Time 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 MORP04-04 Isanami 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 MORP04-07 Maloose 4.90 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 MORP07-03 Reshuffles 21.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 NCLE01-08 Queen Nadima 6.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 SANL05-06 No Trouble 19.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 SANL06-10 Satin Robes 11.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 SANL07-01 Sarrera 4.90 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 SANL08-07 Rulan Ruby 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 TWBA03-06 Creswina 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 TWBA03-07 Ultra Modern 44.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 TWBA04-06 Rockababe 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 TWBA04-07 Catch The Cougar 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 TWBA05-08 Regal Charmer 85.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 ASCT07-16 Webb Ellis 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 BATH04-06 Royal Attitude 5.50 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 BATH04-07 Owatonna 6.40 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 BATH05-02 Dame Seven 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 BATH05-06 Pickett's Charge 13.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 BATH06-05 Effdeecabernet 7.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 CHEL04-01 Londo 4.30 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 CHEL06-07 Croquet 6.80 ... WON -5.80
20070425 CHEL08-02 Marzotto 14.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 CHEL08-16 Woodland Jack 19.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 GCST04-05 Glowing Rose 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 GCST07-09 Sky Mine 11.50 ... WON +10.50
20070425 GCST07-11 Inside Knowledge 17.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 GCST08-11 Sweetmandy 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 MOE_04-03 Pride N Talaq 7.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 MOE_06-07 Don't Be A Devil 46.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 MOE_06-08 Elliptical 16.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 MOE_07-01 Cobalta 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 MOE_08-07 Indicates 34.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 M_V_02-08 Joontoo Gemini 25.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 M_V_04-04 Vengo 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 M_V_07-03 Miss La Tar 19.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 RAND01-06 Command Ruler 8.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 RAND04-08 Cagey Savings 70.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 RAND05-08 Big Head 44.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 RAND07-03 Sussman 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 ASCT04-03 Cat In A Hat 8.20 LOST +1.00
20070428 ASCT07-07 Zambane 25.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 ASCT08-05 Dee Picked 5.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 ASCT08-10 Lizardis 7.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 CAUL03-01 Speedy Rossa 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 CAUL05-02 Life's A Bounty 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 CAUL06-03 Rockford Bay 20.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 CAUL08-02 Pinezero 11.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM02-05 Stirling 14.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 E_FM02-10 Moonlight Shadow 8.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM04-07 Vietnam 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM05-04 Mesmerising 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM05-07 Point Made 26.00 ... WON +25.00
20070428 E_FM07-06 Primus 10.50 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM08-01 Omnitrader 7.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM08-03 High Academy 38.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 E_FM08-08 Picablu 9.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM08-12 Noble Gaze 14.00 ... WON +13.00
20070428 GCST02-04 Casa Cardoso 17.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 GCST02-10 Monagetti 13.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 GCST05-04 Golden Whistler 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 GCST05-06 Nepro 19.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 GCST05-10 In Order 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 GCST06-07 Muscle Up 10.50 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 GCST08-04 Aquaracer 6.20 ... WON -5.20
20070428 GCST08-05 Bushie 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 GCST08-09 Daintree Crossing 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 MORP03-09 Night Gazer 24.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 MORP04-09 Lessie 29.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 RHIL03-06 Rubinda 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 RHIL03-07 Oakland Lad 7.60 ... WON -6.60
20070428 RHIL07-09 Newport 30.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 RHIL08-02 Biscayne Bay 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 BLMT03-11 Trustadane 30.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 BLMT06-06 Star Laser 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 BLMT07-10 Doyoudare 17.00 ... WON +16.00
20070505 BLMT08-06 Yeah Yeah 18.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 BLMT08-09 Boy Canny Go 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 BRAT05-05 Decamp 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 BRAT07-02 Saliente 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 BRAT07-11 Golden Engagement 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 GAWL06-15 Just A Giggle 27.00 ... WON +26.00
20070505 GAWL08-13 Warwick's Brother 38.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 GCST02-01 Vitesse Dane 4.10 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 GCST06-03 King Rex 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 GCST07-12 Gaze 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 IPSW06-05 Darry 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 IPSW07-05 Snow Destiny 15.00 ... WON +14.00
20070505 IPSW08-15 Lightning Brown 48.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 K_GR06-06 Gunna Happen 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 K_GR07-01 Geiger Spirit 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 K_GR07-02 Double Dip 8.60 ... WON -7.60
20070505 K_GR08-02 Jet Hawk 5.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 M_V_06-04 Ghost Party 80.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 M_V_08-07 Carat Cake 9.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 RHIL03-03 Scissons 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 RHIL05-06 Lady Gulch 5.10 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 RHIL07-05 Rena's Lady 38.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 RHIL08-12 Junebug 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 TWBA05-08 Ruby's Party 11.50 ... LOST -1.00

===
RESULTS: April 21st - May 5th

Lay 11.00 or less
===
Number of Selections: 53.00
Observed Successes: 47.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.68%
Expected Successes: 45.62
Expected Strike Rate: 86.08%
Advantage: 3.02%
Success due to luck: 55.00%
Units Profit: +13.40
ROI: +25.28%

Back 11.50 or greater
===
Number of Selections: 63.00
Observed Successes: 7.00
Observed Strike Rate: 11.11%
Expected Successes: 3.41
Expected Strike Rate: 5.41%
Advantage: 105.47%
Success due to luck: 14.97%
Units Profit: +74.50
ROI: +118.25%


* Hopefully you've been very cautious in this range. I did post plenty of disclaimers.

[AngryPixie]

Above are all the selections I've posted to date. This list looks a little different than what was posted in the other thread as those that started at 11.50 and greater are listed as if we'd backed and not layed them. Below these is a summary of how we'd have faired and I think you'll agree we'd have done quite nicely. I'm not suggesting that the performance of the selections at 11.50 and greater are going to continue so strongly but I do think it's going to continue to turn up some longshot winners. You'd have done even better if you'd restricted your win bets to those that started between 11.50 and about 36.00.

The best way to play these would be to wait till seconds before the jump to place either your lays or back's. If the selection looks as though it'll start at 11.00 or less then it's a lay, anything else should be backed to win. The prices used have been provided by the Betfair Advantage Tool (B.A.T.). Please use caution until we've collected more data. I'll work out how many tests we'll need to conduct and let you know, but at present neither price range is producing a Chi-test score that would convince me to put proper money on these, and in fact the success of the selections in the range 11.00 and less is still more likely to have been the result of luck. So little money only please.

Today's selection will follow later this morning.

Good luck and please stroke my ego by keeping the feedback going :)

[TWOBETS]

On ya AP. Thanks for the hard work. Watching with interest.

[AngryPixie]

Here we go. Good luck.


CAUL07-12 Itsamonty
GCST04-06 Van Rooyen
GCST05-05 Sweetmandy
GCST06-10 Orpen Rose
MORP03-05 Ernie's Molly
MORP04-03 Scary Smokovek
MORP06-02 Pride Of Archway
MORP06-03 Zimstar
MORP07-13 I'm A Goody
NCLE06-07 Triumphator
NCLE08-02 Chief Hennessy
RAND02-06 Zappatore
RAND06-09 Nothin But A Dane
RAND07-03 Global One
RAND07-08 Flying Orders
RAND07-09 Rubinda
SEYM06-04 Mahiman
SEYM08-12 Yamaki
SEYM08-17 Bowl Along

BLMT and TWBA to follow.

[AngryPixie]

BLMT03-11 Trustadane
BLMT08-11 Cubic Zirconia
TWBA02-05 Laurie's Lad
TWBA02-06 Real Swell
TWBA04-07 Right Spice

[AngryPixie]

With the late scratching of Wingate Street in the 7th at Belmont the following now qualify's as a late selection.

BLMT07-04 Coalseam

[AngryPixie]

Not a bad day really. The "11.00 or less" division had an excellent day, and the "11.50 or greater" division had the type of day you'd expect from it's 9-10% strike rate. The winners will come.

I'm listing the results so they're a bit less confusing. All prices from B.A.T. Keep the feedback coming. Interested to hear your ideas. :)


====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
CAUL07-12 Itsamonty 10.50 ... LOST +1.00
GCST04-06 Van Rooyen 8.20 ... LOST +1.00
GCST05-05 Sweetmandy 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
GCST06-10 Orpen Rose 4.80 ... LOST +1.00
MORP06-03 Zimstar 4.20 ... LOST +1.00
NCLE06-07 Triumphator 5.10 ... WON -4.10
NCLE08-02 Chief Hennessy 2.40 ... LOST +1.00
RAND07-09 Rubinda 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
SEYM08-17 Bowl Along 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA02-05 Laurie's Lad 10.50 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA02-06 Real Swell 10.00 ... LOST +1.00

Results April 21st - May 12th
----------
Number of Selections: 64.00
Observed Successes: 57.00
Observed Strike Rate: 89.06%
Expected Successes: 54.83
Expected Strike Rate: 85.67%
Advantage: 3.96%
Success due to luck: 38.45%
Units Profit: +19.30
ROI: +30.16% :)
====================


====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BLMT03-11 Trustadane 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT07-04 Coalseam 27.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT08-11 Cubic Zirconia 18.50 ... LOST -1.00
MORP03-05 Ernie's Molly 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORP04-03 Scary Smokovek 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
MORP06-02 Pride Of Archway 18.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORP07-13 I'm A Goody 17.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND02-06 Zappatore 29.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND06-09 Nothin But A Dane 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
RAND07-03 Global One 30.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND07-08 Flying Orders 14.50 ... LOST -1.00
SEYM06-04 Mahiman 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
SEYM08-12 Yamaki 24.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA04-07 Right Spice 36.00 ... LOST -1.00

Results April 21st - May 12th
----------
Number of Selections: 77.00
Observed Successes: 7.00
Observed Strike Rate: 9.09%
Expected Successes: 4.15
Expected Strike Rate: 5.39%
Advantage: 74.16%
Success due to luck: 25.84%
Units Profit: +60.50
ROI: +78.57% :)
====================

[TWOBETS]

Afternoon AP,

I've manufactured so many systems that try to tap in on longer prices but what Ive discovered as a rule is that the higher the price the more eratic the run of outs. So much is this evident to me that I now believe a similar result might be achieved by throwing a dart.
Things like jocks with high neural scores on cart horses, races where there is only one replacement jock and it concerns a long price runner etc. etc.
You can do great for weeks or even months on end and then it all goes south.

Drives me freakin' crazy!

I've put this up not to pour cold water on your ideas but simply to let you know what I've been through. This is why for some years now I have been a place better on favourites only where I manage to score an insanely high SR at the expense of prices. I do everything they say don't do on this forum and yet it works fine for me. Things like I only use Qld TAB for my bets. (Reason is I can watch my horse get out the stall before I click the button!).

Don't forget mum.

[AngryPixie]

I've put this up not to pour cold water on your ideas but simply to let you know what I've been through.
To be honest with you I'm less interested in the backing side of this test. I'm primarily a layer but I know alot of people like to have a go at the roughies and this selection method has turned up more than it should have. Could be a purple patch, we won't really have an idea until we reach a couple of hundred more samples. More on this to follow.


I do everything they say don't do on this forum and yet it works fine for me.

Yes I like that there are so many permutations available when investing on thoroughbreds. Finding the right one's is where the fun is. Even breaking the "rules" can turn a profit for a while.


Things like I only use Qld TAB for my bets. (Reason is I can watch my horse get out the stall before I click the button!).

Cheeky.

[AngryPixie]

Good luck. :)

CHEL03-07 Lessie
CHEL04-02 Merlot Now
CHEL06-02 Toxic Free Mallee
DOOM03-19 My Hangover
DOOM07-04 Coalesce
DOOM07-08 Cinque Cento
GCST03-02 Brinkley Light
GCST06-07 Screen Siren
GCST07-03 Hallside Hero
GCST09-14 Experience
RHIL02-11 Montana Royale
RHIL03-06 Parfumier
RHIL04-09 Scorched Earth
RHIL07-06 Newport
RHIL08-06 Tolo
SAND05-01 Bel Danoro
SAND06-06 Desert Master
SAND08-11 Roubechon

BLMT and TWBA to follow

[AngryPixie]

Please disregard the following as a selection. Just realised the race type doesn't fit the selection criteria. Sorry about that

GCST06-07 Screen Siren

[AngryPixie]

Rest of todays selections. Will post the results and summary tomorrow. Hope the rest of your day goes ok.

BLMT04-05 Amadiora
BLMT05-06 Metal Power
BLMT06-11 Ticking Time
BLMT07-02 Local Legend
BLMT07-06 No Questions
BLMT07-07 Gobiton
BLMT07-11 Mercury Halo
TWBA02-07 Foxie Em
TWBA04-06 Much
TWBA04-09 Show Biz Miss
TWBA05-07 Kings Valour

[AngryPixie]

A nice day with both price divisions ending with a healthy profit. The highlight was snagging the 34.00 winner Cinque Cento. You could have got as much as 55.00 a minute or so before the jump. I managed 48.00. Show Biz Miss surviving a protest to win at 12.00 was the cream on the cake.

There was a couple of close calls in the "11.00 or less" lay division the closest was Merlot Now's whisker second which had he have won would have taken a nice bite out of our days profits. That's life on the lay. ;)

Prices from the B.A.T.


====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
BLMT05-06 Metal Power 10.50 ... LOST +1.00
BLMT06-11 Ticking Time 9.00 ... LOST +1.00
BLMT07-06 No Questions 6.80 ... LOST +1.00
CHEL04-02 Merlot Now 4.80 ... LOST +1.00
CHEL06-02 Toxic Free Mallee 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
DOOM03-19 My Hangover 10.50 ... LOST +1.00
GCST03-02 Brinkley Light 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
RHIL04-09 Scorched Earth 8.20 ... LOST +1.00
RHIL07-06 Newport 6.80 ... WON -5.80
SAND05-01 Bel Danoro 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
SAND06-06 Desert Master 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
SAND08-11 Roubechon 10.50 ... LOST +1.00

Results April 21st - May 19th*
----------
Number of Selections: 76.00
Observed Successes: 68.00
Observed Strike Rate: 89.47%
Expected Successes: 61.79
Expected Strike Rate: 81.30%
Advantage: 10.05%
Success due to luck: 2.03%
Profit: +24.50 units
Commission @ 5%: -3.40 units
Net Profit: +21.10 units
Net ROI: +27.76% :)
====================


====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BLMT04-05 Amadiora 20.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT07-02 Local Legend 16.50 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT07-07 Gobiton 20.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT07-11 Mercury Halo 17.50 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL03-07 Lessie 20.00 ... LOST -1.00
DOOM07-04 Coalesce 19.50 ... LOST -1.00
DOOM07-08 Cinque Cento 34.00 ... WON +33.00 :D
GCST07-03 Hallside Hero 19.50 ... LOST -1.00
GCST09-14 Experience 32.00 ... LOST -1.00
RHIL02-11 Montana Royale 13.00 ... LOST -1.00
RHIL03-06 Parfumier 14.50 ... LOST -1.00
RHIL08-06 Tolo 17.50 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA02-07 Foxie Em 42.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA04-06 Much 40.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA04-09 Show Biz Miss 12.00 ... WON +11.00
TWBA05-07 Kings Valour 21.00 ... LOST -1.00

Results April 21st - May 19th*
----------
Number of Selections: 93.00
Observed Successes: 9.00
Observed Strike Rate: 9.68%
Expected Successes: 4.70
Expected Strike Rate: 5.05%
Advantage: 91.64%
Success due to luck: 13.12%
Profit: +90.50 units
Commission @ 5%: -8.72 units
Net Profit: +81.78 units
Net ROI: +87.93% :)
====================

* I've normalised the B.A.T. prices to a 100% market and have started subtracting the Betfair commission at a fixed rate of 5%.

[AngryPixie]

Has anybody given any thought to other filters that could be applied to these selections? It would be great to weed out some of the real no hoper longshots and improve the strike rate there.

Any ideas? :)

[burrah]

Has anybody given any thought to other filters that could be applied to these selections? It would be great to weed out some of the real no hoper longshots and improve the strike rate there.

Any ideas? :)I was going to suggest that any horse with a massive adv. high on BAT could be eliminated, but that would also have eliminated Cinque Centro, so back to the drawing board.

[michaelg]

AngryPixie, without knowing the criteria of your selection process someone might suggest the distance of race, barrier, days from last start, place/unplaced last start, etc but these might already be in your elimination rules.

With my current methods I have looked at many factors but can't seem to come up at this time with any worthwhile filters - except with my Unitab 100 pointers I will not include any selections resuming from a spell or only have had one race start. Maybe these two rules might be worth looking at if they're not already accounted for in your selection method?

[AngryPixie]

Burrah/Michael

In hindsight maybe we should just let this run for a while to see what happens. As you say Burrah, you'd kick yourself if you filtered out a big priced winner. For the time being it's performing well so let's not tinker till we have to. Besides, I've long given up doing any form so the only filter angle I can think of is something that involves drifters and firmers, and I've only loosely been paying attention to these before the last 30 seconds or so. When I managed to lay a couple of selections early, below 11.00 I managed to green-up when they drifted over that mark. That's another way to play these I guess. Also I find Fairbot invaluable due to it's near realtime market refreshes and one-click bet submission. Great when your trying to snag a particular price right at the last second.

We've actually passed the 95% confidence level for the "11.00 or less" lay group now that I've normalised the B.A.T. prices. In fact it's almost at 98% but that will jump around a little. Let's keep going until we get both groups over 95% i.e. success due to luck: 5.00%. The number of sample races involved here should of course be considered the minimum.

Hope you guys are managing to grab some profits. :)

[AngryPixie]

without knowing the criteria of your selection process someone might suggest the distance of race, barrier, days from last start, place/unplaced last start, etc but these might already be in your elimination rules.


Michael I take your point. Without going into too much detail we're basically just playing the percentages here. There's no classic form fundamentals involved.

By way of example and in very simplistic terms it works like this.

First I take a very simple view of the race eg. there are ten runners in the race therefore every runner has one chance in ten of winning. I then gather some "facts" about the runners the most important part being that they are independant of each other i.e. one "fact" doesn't influence another. I crunch these "facts" together for every runner and get a probability at the other end. I look at the top four, subtract their probabilities from my simple one chance in ten view of the race and those with a positive result are the lay selections.

eg. Runner 4 is the lay selection

Runner 1 .10 - .31 = -.21
Runner 2 .10 - .15 = -.05
Runner 3 .10 - .11 = -.01
Runner 4 .10 - .07 = +.03
---
Runner 5 .10 - .05 = +.05
Runner 6 .10 - .02 = +.08
.
.
.


You'll occasionally get a group of runners that are too close to seperate into a top four. In this case I include them all. That's the reason that some races have three or four selections. Some races have no selections, and I've a personal bias against 2yo, 3yo, Maiden and Jumps races so I ignore those, but I've no reason to think the method wouldn't work with them. Big fields can also be a problem and I'm still experimenting a bit there. And yes, the runners with the negative result in the top four do win more than their fair share of races.

Getting the "facts" right is the hard bit and the bit I'll keep to myself but they should be very simple and proven to hold true over many years. There's a myriad of them though. It doesn't necessarily hold that the more you use the more accurate you are either. I've got it down to three that I use in Australia. The method works in the UK too, and was the basis of my "Beat the Donkey" thread. Interestingly what works on a Saturday in Australia doesn't work during the week where I think private information is of most benefit.

You'll get more of an idea here.

http://www.flatstats.co.uk/ppp/viewtopic.php?p=7441

That's enough from me the rest is mine ;)

[michaelg]

AngryPixie, have you looked seperately at the "facts" that form the basis of your selections for their strengths/weaknesses. Can any of them be modified, eliminated, etc?

[AngryPixie]

Michael

The strength of the method is in the combination of the (let's call them) factors. That's what it all hinges on i.e. the group is smarter than the sum of its parts. When I added more factors accuracy improved only slightly at the expense of quite a bit of action as the price of the selections tended to lengthen. Remember I was primarily looking at this as a lay method. The three I use seem about right but about half of the selections are at uncomfortable lay prices. There's been quite a bit of trial and error.

The Flatstat's page gives some indication as to what type of factors you can look at. You could use average prize money, jockey strike rate, trainer strike rate, saddle numbers, grey horses whatever etc. There are many many combinations. You might even work some of the Neural factors in there. ;)

You don't have to do the substitution part either. You could just back or lay to the percentages you get after you've crunched the numbers. That's been more my approach in the past and it works ok to.

In back testing this is actually looking quite ok on the lay side. At this stage I'll be dropping my present 7% POT lay method in this ones favour. The backing side can go a long time without turning up a winner. It's just unfortunate that the size of the Australian markets don't allow me to share some more. I'm happy to keep this going for a little while longer while we build confidence, as I'm not really putting proper size bets on these yet. Eventually I'll have to close the thread down :(

Am I sounding too confident? I can see I'm setting myself up for a massive correction this Saturday. :eek:

[AngryPixie]

Could be a challenging day with big fields making it hard to get our 11.00 cut-off. Nothing at the Valley today. Good luck with it though ;)

CHEL04-03 Semper Paratus
CHEL04-05 Tic Toc Tac
CHEL06-09 Manhattan Sky
CHEL08-08 Dekoda Gold
DOOM04-05 Sectagonal
DOOM05-09 Ritzy Lady
DOOM07-02 Mitanni
GCST03-01 Ace Arena
GCST04-07 Foxie Em
GCST06-06 Chain Of Thought
GCST07-06 Kirralee Queen
GCST08-10 Tag
NCLE06-10 De Rigueur
NCLE08-05 Delago Star
RAND02-06 Sharamagic
RAND04-04 Jeteye
RAND04-07 Stable Talk
RAND06-12 Hesperia
SALE08-04 Emgee Rex
SALE09-02 Zephyr Speed
SALE09-12 Hayward
SALE10-14 Sunset Plaza

BLMT and TWBA to follow

[AngryPixie]

BLMT05-06 Boy Canny Go
BLMT06-04 Cat In A Hat
BLMT08-05 Legend Express
TWBA01-01 Wisdom Of Joy
TWBA05-10 The Pianist

Good luck. Will post the results and summary tomorow night.

[AngryPixie]

A good day with a clean sweep for the "11.00 or less" division, and a nice 26.00 winner for the "11.50 or greater". So both divisions ended with a good profit.

There was some over enthusiastic laying on some of the selections, and I'm sure a few of them were "artificially" pushed over the 11.00 cut-off. The best example of this was Jeteye which I managed to lay at an average of 9.66 only to see it pushed out to 12.50, thirty seconds later. There were some silly prices taken guys. :mad:

Prices from the B.A.T.

====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
BLMT06-04 Cat In A Hat 8.20 ... LOST +1.00
BLMT08-05 Legend Express 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
DOOM04-05 Sectagonal 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
DOOM07-02 Mitanni 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
GCST07-06 Kirralee Queen 6.80 ... LOST +1.00
NCLE06-10 De Rigueur 5.30 ... LOST +1.00
SALE09-12 Hayward 5.00 ... LOST +1.00
SALE10-14 Sunset Plaza 7.00 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA01-01 Wisdom Of Joy 7.80 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA05-10 The Pianist 9.20 ... LOST +1.00

Results April 21st - May 26th
----------
Number of Selections: 86.00
Observed Successes: 78.00
Observed Strike Rate: 90.70%
Expected Successes: 69.92
Expected Strike Rate: 81.19%
Advantage: 11.72%
Success due to luck: 0.24%
Profit: +34.50 units
Commission @ 5%: -3.90 units
Net Profit: +30.60 units
Net ROI: +35.58% :)
====================


====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BLMT05-06 Boy Canny Go 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL04-03 Semper Paratus 14.50 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL04-05 Tic Toc Tac 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL06-09 Manhattan Sky 48.00 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL08-08 Dekoda Gold 17.50 ... LOST -1.00
DOOM05-09 Ritzy Lady 55.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST03-01 Ace Arena 21.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST04-07 Foxie Em 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST06-06 Chain Of Thought 27.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST08-10 Tag 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
NCLE08-05 Delago Star 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND02-06 Sharamagic 20.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND04-04 Jeteye 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
RAND04-07 Stable Talk 44.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND06-12 Hesperia 29.00 ... LOST -1.00
SALE08-04 Emgee Rex 15.50 ... LOST -1.00
SALE09-02 Zephyr Speed 26.00 ... WON +25.00 :D

Results April 21st - May 26th
----------
Number of Selections: 110.00
Observed Successes: 10.00
Observed Strike Rate: 9.09%
Expected Successes: 5.50
Expected Strike Rate: 5.00%
Advantage: 81.93%
Success due to luck: 13.53%
Profit: +99.50 units
Commission @ 5%: -9.97 units
Net Profit: +89.53 units
Net ROI: +81.39% :)
====================

[AngryPixie]

Guys

I'm going to stop posting the selections. The lurkers are starting to make the prices pretty dangerous and really aren't doing anybody any favours. I'm happy to e-mail the selections out on a Saturday morning till the end of June. After which I'll start hitting the lay side properly. If you're a 200+ poster or somebody I've spoken with in the past, leave your e-mail here in a masked format eg.

username at domain dot com dot au
and I'll put you on the list. I'll use this thread to post the results.

[Pugnosis]

That is disappointing Pixie. I always enjoy watching someones methods and without actually backing or laying your selections was still keeping a close eye. With the loss of your method this just gives another reason to visit this forum less and less. Good luck and I hope they continue to perform for you!

[AngryPixie]

Thank's Pug. Appreciate your feedback :)

[AngryPixie]

If you prefer not to leave your e-mail address here then send an e-mail to

angrypixie2007-propun at yahoo dot com dot au

Please include your forum name in the e-mail

You'll need to leave a posting here as confirmation so we don't get anybody pretending to be who they're not.

[Chrome Prince]

That's a shame Pixie, you seem to be going great guns....didn't I tell you they'd come out of the woodwork ;)

I understand your price grief though, my thread has plummeted down to breakeven for May almost, and it is totally against the trend.
The last 56,000 races plus two months were showing a great return and then pow go the prices.
It's not the strike rate - it's the prices.
What you have to do is turn it to your advantage and simply do the reverse - I love this back or lay caper :D

[AngryPixie]

Hi Chrome

The lay side does appear to be going ok. Back side :rolleyes: too. I may even review my lay only outlook of life.

I really don't mind sending these off to the locals for a few more weeks, it's the guests that are most likely doing the damage. The median prices are changing quite a bit and I reckon about three of Saturdays "11.50 or greater" selections would have started at below 11.00 on any other day. I was especially suspicious when I saw bids and offers bumping around the 11.00 mark when the tote prices were quite different.

I'm not a great believer in coincidence so I reckon your generousity with sharing your "Interesting E-mail" system has probably bought you a bit unstuck. Once it's out there you've completely lost control, so who knows who's using it now. :mad: It is wonderfully inventive though and as you say there's always the reverse as an option.

I'm not sure there will be too many come out of the woodwork, but if they do they are welcome. :)

As a matter of interest did anybody back the $26.00 winner this week and the $34.00 last week? Anybody???

PS: Your on the list Chrome although I think it'll just be you and me :eek:

[AngryPixie]

Just me interested in these tips then by the looks. I could have been sleeping in an hour longer on Saturdays if somebody had mentioned that before ;)

At least I know it wasn't the locals getting set at the silly prices then. Offer above still stands. :)

[AngryPixie]

Bit of a dirty day with both price divisions giving a little back. Some of the negative results were very close. http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/tsmileys2/12.gif

Prices from the B.A.T.


====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
EFRM02-06 Masai Pride 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
GCST04-09 Glowing Rose 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
GCST05-05 Fast End 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
GCST06-02 Cool Scene 3.95 ... LOST +1.00
MORP04-03 Al Mahara 9.00 ... LOST +1.00
MORP05-01 Exalted Time 9.60 ... WON -8.60
MORP06-05 Constructor 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
MORP07-03 Little Baldy 11.00 ... LOST +1.00
MORP07-08 Cadgee Gold 9.80 ... WON -8.80
SANL07-05 Sentire 7.00 ... LOST +1.00
SANL07-09 Force Nine 4.10 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA03-06 Partygoer 5.20 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA05-04 Fissle 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA06-03 Prancy Nancy 5.50 ... LOST +1.00

Results April 21st - June 2nd
----------
Number of Selections: 100.00
Observed Successes: 90.00
Observed Strike Rate: 90.00%
Expected Successes: 80.94
Expected Strike Rate: 80.94%
Advantage: 11.20%
Success due to luck: 0.25%
Profit: +29.10 units
Commission @ 5%: -4.50 units
Net Profit: +24.60 units
Net ROI: +24.60% :)
====================

====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BLMT04-07 Lombo Choice 70.00 ... LOST -1.00
EFRM02-03 Atapi 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
EFRM08-04 Lachlan River 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
GCST07-09 Morning Colours 18.00 ... LOST -1.00
K_GR04-07 Sure Century 80.00 ... LOST -1.00
K_GR05-09 Bishop Casey 19.50 ... LOST -1.00
K_GR06-08 Dame Seven 26.00 ... LOST -1.00
K_GR08-04 Crownalot 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORP07-10 I'm A Goody 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
RHIL04-04 Capanna 20.00 ... LOST -1.00
SANL05-03 Royal Lakes 14.50 ... LOST -1.00
SANL06-07 Forest Spy 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
SANL08-05 Diamond Cove 12.50 ... WON +11.50
TWBA03-13 On A Circle 29.00 ... LOST -1.00

Results April 21st - June 2nd
----------
Number of Selections: 124.00
Observed Successes: 11.00
Observed Strike Rate: 8.87%
Expected Successes: 6.22
Expected Strike Rate: 5.02%
Advantage: 76.72%
Success due to luck: 13.15%
Profit: +98.00 units
Commission @ 5%: -11.10 units
Net Profit: +86.90 units
Net ROI: +70.08% :)
====================

[AngryPixie]

I want to post the "Pixie's Pix" results till the end of the month but nobody has raised their hand to indicate any interest in the selections. :(

I can't keep posting them without somebody "at arms length" getting them before hand so I'd like one or more of the following contributers to this thread to volunteer to be the umpire.

BURRAH
CHROME PRINCE
MICHAELG
PUGNOSIS
TWOBETS

I'll provide the selections to you by e-mail on raceday morning. Shoot me off an e-mail to the address below and I'll get back to you.

angrypixie2007-propun at yahoo dot com dot au

If you don't want to don't worry, no offence taken ;) Hope to hear from one or all of you.

[burrah]

I want to post the "Pixie's Pix" results till the end of the month but nobody has raised their hand to indicate any interest in the selections. :(

I can't keep posting them without somebody "at arms length" getting them before hand so I'd like one or more of the following contributers to this thread to volunteer to be the umpire.

BURRAH
CHROME PRINCE
MICHAELG
PUGNOSIS
TWOBETS

I'll provide the selections to you by e-mail on raceday morning. Shoot me off an e-mail to the address below and I'll get back to you.angrypixie2007-propun at yahoo dot com dot au If you don't want to don't worry, no offence taken ;) Hope to hear from one or all of you.Sorry Ap, I'm moving house to the country in two weeks, you know what that means!
Probably take me a month to find which box the computer is in and then set it up.

[AngryPixie]

I'm moving house to the country in two weeks, you know what that means!


Yep, you get to wear gumboots all the time. Nice one!

Good luck with the move. Hope you've tee'd up a decent ISP connection.

[michaelg]

AngryPixie.

You can send me the selections each morning but I will have a problem if you wish me to record the results with real or accurate betting.

I am not always at my computer and therefore in some cases would have to use the BAT results applying one click higher than the Bet price to obtain the Lay price.

If this is acceptable I will provide my e-mail address or contact you.

[AngryPixie]

Michael

No problems. All I want to do is send them to somebody so when I post the results they can call me a liar and a ********** and a complete waste of space if I leave any selections out or add extra ones in. Don't really mind about recording the BAT as everybody can check this latter.

Hear from you.

PS: C h e a t was *'ed

PPS: Perhaps I should just post them up here till the end of the month

[michaelg]

Yes, I think posting them here in the morning will prevent anyone from accusing you or me (or anyone else) of any funny business.

And anyone wanting to lay them will also have the opportunity to do so.

[crash]

I'm just wondering what criteria are you selecting the win bets on? It's obvious that more than 1 horse in a race is priced between $11.50 and $35.

[AngryPixie]

Talked me into it then Michael. I'll post them here till the end of this month. Could be an interesting experiment actually. I reckon one or both of last weeks accidents could have been pushed over the 11.00 mark had they have been published. That would have made them wins in the other division ;)

I'm only using a test bank on these at the moment anyway.

Crash, I'm just using a kooky combination of a few non-form factors to come up with the selections. They are then either a lay or a back depending on what their price is at the jump. 11.00 or less a lay. 11.50 or more a back. Started off as a lay only method but longshots kept getting up so I swapped the higher price division into back selections.

I'm not actually backing the longies (though I did have a few bucks on some of them for fun), I'm really just interested in the lays. Can't really explain the success of the higher price division but suspect it'll fall in a heap before long. Lays look ok though.

My method only seems to work this way on a Saturday or Public Holiday. During the week the opposite works quite well. Back the 11.00 and below selections, and lay the others (although I don't as they are too long). I don't have alot of time during the week though so it's Saturday's for me at present.

PS: I'm feeling better today :o

[TWOBETS]

Evenin' Pix,

Seems like your dilemma is sorted. If however some problem occurs I'm happy to step up to the plate. Just say the word.

I'm going to that darn target betting thread now to see if any more insults can be generated!

[AngryPixie]

Thanks Twobets. Hope we all get a chance to profit from them.

[Pugnosis]

Haven't looked on the forum for a few days Pixie but will watch with interest tomorrow. I actually backed Exalted Time last week so in a way am glad you didn't post your selections last week as it may have turned me off!

[AngryPixie]

Well done Pug. Exalted Time just got there from memory :mad:

[AngryPixie]

Quiet day due to the weather in some areas. Best of luck. Results posted tomorrow night. There will be selections next Monday.


E_FM04-03 Aim So High
E_FM04-05 Bitabiff
E_FM06-05 Black Ink
GCST05-05 Ebony Lad
GCST06-08 Eve Angelene
GCST09-12 Ozjuria
M_V_06-10 Incentate
M_V_07-07 Serene Prince
M_V_08-04 Waitui Angel
MORP02-05 Tic Toc Tac
MORP03-13 He's A Class Act
SW_H06-05 Magical Slice
SW_H08-08 Thomas Henry
SW_H09-07 Lieffy
SW_H10-05 Kyiv Prince

BLMT to follow

[AngryPixie]

A troll of a day so far http://www.smileyarena.com/emoticons/Main/Scary_Stuff/troll.gif

BLMT03-03 Coalseam
BLMT07-01 Triple Dee
BLMT08-13 Stringmaster

[AngryPixie]

Wow. Another day like that and we're toast. http://www.smileyarena.com/emoticons/Emotions/Sad/sad26.gif


====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
BLMT03-03 Coalseam 4.60 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM04-03 Aim So High 8.60 ... WON -7.60
E_FM04-05 Bitabiff 5.60 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM06-05 Black Ink 10.50 ... LOST +1.00
M_V_07-07 Serene Prince 7.80 ... LOST +1.00
MORP02-05 Tic Toc Tac 8.60 ... WON -7.60
MORP03-13 He's A Class Act 7.00 ... LOST +1.00
SW_H06-05 Magical Slice 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
SW_H08-08 Thomas Henry 3.00 ... LOST +1.00
SW_H09-07 Lieffy 7.20 ... WON -6.20

Results April 21st - June 9th
----------
Number of Selections: 110.00
Observed Successes: 97.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.18%
Expected Successes: 88.81
Expected Strike Rate: 80.74%
Advantage: 9.22%
Success due to luck: 1.56%
Profit: +14.70 units
Commission @ 5%: -4.85 units
Net Profit: +9.85 units
Net ROI: +8.95% :(
====================

====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BLMT07-01 Triple Dee 36.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT08-13 Stringmaster 25.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST05-05 Ebony Lad 24.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST06-08 Eve Angelene 11.50 ... LOST -1.00
GCST09-12 Ozjuria 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
M_V_06-10 Incentate 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
M_V_08-04 Waitui Angel 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
SW_H10-05 Kyiv Prince 17.50 ... LOST -1.00

Results April 21st - June 9th
----------
Number of Selections: 132.00
Observed Successes: 11.00
Observed Strike Rate: 8.33%
Expected Successes: 6.60
Expected Strike Rate: 5.00%
Advantage: 66.70%
Success due to luck: 16.57%
Profit: +90.00 units
Commission @ 5%: -11.10 units
Net Profit: +78.90 units
Net ROI: +59.77% :)
====================

[AngryPixie]

Let's hope for a better day today. Looks pretty busy :)

BLNA04-04 Admiral Halsey
BLNA05-08 Sabre Knight
BLNA05-12 Our Piccolo
BLNA06-01 Cool Scene
BLNA07-09 Charm Of Rossano
BLNA07-14 Steorra
CAMP06-01 Hunter Hermitage
CAMP06-05 Beltana
CAMP06-06 Gradabra
CAMP07-14 Velvet Revolver
CAMP08-05 Al Chergar
CAMP08-13 The General
CAMP09-07 South Saigon
CAMP09-15 Walnaring Dream
CAMP10-04 Seymour Bush
CAMP10-09 Mookta Lad
E_FM01-09 Rum Dum
E_FM04-11 Deception Bay
M_BR05-01 Forgotten Dreams
M_BR05-05 Corridor
M_BR06-06 Son Of Spartacus
TOWN03-02 Easy Plan
TOWN04-07 Power Express
RAND04-08 Lion Again
RAND06-10 Brookton Flash
RAND07-01 Miss Right Note
RAND08-10 Fat Possum

[AngryPixie]

With the late scratching of Ratings Winner in Race 7 at Ballina, the following are NO LONGER SELECTIONS.


BLNA07-09 Charm Of Rossano
BLNA07-14 Steorra

[AngryPixie]

http://www.smileyarena.com/emoticons/Emotions/Hand_Signs/yahoo.gif
That was a day worth waiting for. Clean sweep of 16 from 16 in the "11.00 and less" division, so we've recovered nicely from Saturdays accidents. No winners from the other division, but you need to factor in a long run of outs when your backing at those prices.

Prices from the B.A.T.


====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
BLNA06-01 Cool Scene 3.85 ... LOST +1.00
CAMP06-01 Hunter Hermitage 7.40 ... LOST +1.00
CAMP06-05 Beltana 11.00 ... LOST +1.00
CAMP08-13 The General 4.80 ... LOST +1.00
CAMP09-07 South Saigon 11.00 ... LOST +1.00
CAMP10-04 Seymour Bush 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
CAMP10-09 Mookta Lad 8.60 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM04-11 Deception Bay 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
M_BR05-01 Forgotten Dreams 8.00 ... LOST +1.00
M_BR05-05 Corridor 5.70 ... LOST +1.00
M_BR06-06 Son Of Spartacus 7.00 ... LOST +1.00
RAND04-08 Lion Again 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
RAND07-01 Miss Right Note 4.60 ... LOST +1.00
RAND08-10 Fat Possum 7.40 ... LOST +1.00
TOWN03-02 Easy Plan 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
TOWN04-07 Power Express 8.40 ... LOST +1.00

Results April 21st - June 11th
----------
Number of Selections: 126.00
Observed Successes: 113.00
Observed Strike Rate: 89.68%
Expected Successes: 101.65
Expected Strike Rate: 80.68%
Advantage: 11.16%
Success due to luck: 0.09%
Profit: +30.70 units
Commission @ 5%: -5.65 units
Net Profit: +25.05 units
Net ROI: +19.88% :)
====================

====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BLNA04-04 Admiral Halsey 14.50 ... LOST -1.00
BLNA05-08 Sabre Knight 13.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLNA05-12 Our Piccolo 50.00 ... LOST -1.00
CAMP06-06 Gradabra 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
CAMP07-14 Velvet Revolver 13.00 ... LOST -1.00
CAMP08-05 Al Chergar 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
CAMP09-15 Walnaring Dream 40.00 ... LOST -1.00
E_FM01-09 Rum Dum 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
RAND06-10 Brookton Flash 40.00 ... LOST -1.00

Results April 21st - June 11th
----------
Number of Selections: 142.00
Observed Successes: 11.00
Observed Strike Rate: 7.75%
Expected Successes: 7.14
Expected Strike Rate: 5.03%
Advantage: 54.11%
Success due to luck: 22.54%
Profit: +80.00 units
Commission @ 5%: -11.10 units
Net Profit: +68.90 units
Net ROI: +48.52% :)
====================

[AngryPixie]

Deja vu. Another Saturday with minimal selections and abandoned meetings. Let's hope for a different result from last Saturday. Best of luck.


GCST04-03 Gavaskar
GCST07-10 Latin Idol
GCST08-02 Noreil
IPSW05-02 Reverenza
IPSW08-11 Grizz
KILM07-08 Rory's Raida
KILM08-09 Forest Baby
KILM10-01 Heritage Port
MORP04-02 Royal Blevic
MORP04-07 Goodie Too Shoes
MORP05-05 Maduro
MORP07-03 Taos Pleasure
MORP08-04 Jillimarg
SANH02-03 Isle Of Majorca
SANH07-11 Millie Rose


BLMT and TWBA to follow.

[AngryPixie]

BLMT03-03 Bold Ransom
BLMT04-03 Action Shot
BLMT05-04 Lawbook
BLMT08-02 Storm Closure


TWBA coming soon :)

[AngryPixie]

TWBA07-09 South Of The Border
TWBA07-13 One For The Road
TWBA08-12 Nagem
TWBA09-06 Every Which Way

[AngryPixie]

An up and down day with a 5 unit profit in one price division and a 5.1 unit loss in the other. If only the Gold Coast had been washed out ;)

We're still going along nicely with the gross ROI of both divisions still above their respective advantage figure. Let's see how we go over the next two weeks, after which the trial ends. Hope you're finding it interesting :)

Prices from the B.A.T.


====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
BLMT03-03 Bold Ransom 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
BLMT04-03 Action Shot 7.60 ... LOST +1.00
BLMT05-04 Lawbook 6.40 ... LOST +1.00
GCST07-10 Latin Idol 5.70 ... WON -4.70
GCST08-02 Noreil 9.40 ... WON -8.40
IPSW08-11 Grizz 6.20 ... LOST +1.00
MORP04-02 Royal Blevic 9.60 ... LOST +1.00
MORP08-04 Jillimarg 8.20 ... LOST +1.00
SANH02-03 Isle Of Majorca 11.00 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA08-12 Nagem 5.50 ... LOST +1.00

Results April 21st - June 16th
----------
Number of Selections: 136.00
Observed Successes: 121.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.97%
Expected Successes: 109.88
Expected Strike Rate: 80.79%
Advantage: 10.12%
Success due to luck: 0.23%
Profit: +25.60 units
Commission @ 5%: -6.05 units
Net Profit: +19.55 units
Net ROI: +14.37% :)
====================

====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BLMT08-02 Storm Closure 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST04-03 Gavaskar 17.00 ... LOST -1.00
IPSW05-02 Reverenza 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
KILM07-08 Rory's Raida 17.50 ... LOST -1.00
KILM08-09 Forest Baby 18.00 ... WON +17.00
KILM10-01 Heritage Port 13.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORP04-07 Goodie Too Shoes 23.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORP05-05 Maduro 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
MORP07-03 Taos Pleasure 27.00 ... LOST -1.00
SANH07-11 Millie Rose 18.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA07-09 South Of The River* 28.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA07-13 One For The Road 24.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA09-06 Every Which Way 27.00 ... LOST -1.00

Results April 21st - June 16th
----------
Number of Selections: 155.00
Observed Successes: 12.00
Observed Strike Rate: 7.74%
Expected Successes: 7.82
Expected Strike Rate: 5.04%
Advantage: 53.47%
Success due to luck: 20.89%
Profit: +85.00 units
Commission @ 5%: -12.00 units
Net Profit: +73.00 units
Net ROI: +47.09% :)
====================


* For some reason I entered the name "South Of The Border" when I posted the selections instead of "South Of The River".

[AngryPixie]

A busy looking day except for Benalla with it's Maiden only card. There's some early starts so here's the early ones, with the others to follow. Best of luck. :)

E_FM02-09 Daring Fortune
E_FM02-12 Majorca
E_FM05-03 Tellem
E_FM06-05 Cinque Cento
E_FM08-02 Hard To Catch
E_FM08-11 Warrior Trader
NCLE03-03 All Time Champion
RAND03-08 Hesperia
RAND05-01 Letter Of Intent
RAND06-03 Danasierra
RAND08-04 Agua Corriendo
RAND10-07 Hadaaf

BLMT, GCST, M_V_, MORP and TWBA to follow

[Chrome Prince]

Well done Angry Pixie, you seem to be doing fairly well consistently.

[AngryPixie]

Well done Angry Pixie, you seem to be doing fairly well consistently.

Thanks Chrome. Plugging away. :)

[AngryPixie]

GCST04-03 Carino A La Vida
GCST04-08 General Ledger
GCST05-05 He's A Harry
GCST07-07 Pacific Belle
M_V_03-02 Molly's Folly
M_V_03-03 Paris Return
M_V_06-10 Qui Lassie
M_V_06-13 Cut In Stone
MORP03-03 Hamish The Brave
MORP05-10 Dekoda Gold
MORP07-12 Sweet Julia

BLMT and TWBA still to come. :)

[AngryPixie]

BLMT03-03 Men At Work
BLMT03-08 Woodala
BLMT06-06 Bold Ransom
BLMT08-05 Money Exchange
TWBA03-02 Onedin Line
TWBA03-07 Taabinga Lass
TWBA03-11 Chain Of Thought
TWBA04-12 Pickason
TWBA06-07 Devasyn
TWBA06-11 In A Whirl

May not be able to post the results until tomorrow night. All the best.

[AngryPixie]

A pleasing day with both price divisions ending with a decent profit. :)

TWBA selections have been excluded from the results as the meeting was abandoned after Race 2. Prices from the B.A.T.


====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
BLMT08-05 Money Exchange 9.60 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM02-12 Majorca 7.40 ... LOST +1.00
GCST04-08 General Ledger 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
GCST07-07 Pacific Belle 5.60 ... LOST +1.00
M_V_03-02 Molly's Folly 6.00 ... WON -5.00
NCLE03-03 All Time Champion 5.80 ... LOST +1.00
RAND05-01 Letter Of Intent 9.00 ... LOST +1.00
RAND06-03 Danasierra 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
RAND10-07 Hadaaf 10.50 ... LOST +1.00

Results April 21st - June 23rd
----------
Number of Selections: 145.00
Observed Successes: 129.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.97%
Expected Successes: 117.24
Expected Strike Rate: 80.86%
Advantage: 10.03%
Success due to luck: 0.18%
Profit: +28.6 units
Commission @ 5%: -6.45 units
Net Profit: +22.15 units
Net ROI: +15.27% :)
====================

====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BLMT03-03 Men At Work 11.50 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT03-08 Woodala 21.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT06-06 Bold Ransom 25.00 ... LOST -1.00
E_FM02-09 Daring Fortune 16.50 ... WON +15.50
E_FM05-03 Tellem 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
E_FM06-05 Cinque Cento 15.50 ... LOST -1.00
E_FM08-02 Hard To Catch 14.50 ... LOST -1.00
E_FM08-11 Warrior Trader 15.50 ... LOST -1.00
GCST04-03 Carino A La Vida 25.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST05-05 He's A Harry 25.00 ... LOST -1.00
M_V_03-03 Paris Return 17.50 ... LOST -1.00
M_V_06-10 Qui Lassie 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
M_V_06-13 Cut In Stone 18.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORP03-03 Hamish The Brave 28.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORP05-10 Dekoda Gold 24.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORP07-12 Sweet Julia 12.50 ... WON +11.50
RAND03-08 Hesperia 17.50 ... LOST -1.00
RAND08-04 Agua Corriendo 18.00 ... LOST -1.00

Results April 21st - June 23rd
----------
Number of Selections: 173.00
Observed Successes: 14.00
Observed Strike Rate: 8.09%
Expected Successes: 8.77
Expected Strike Rate: 5.07%
Advantage: 59.71%
Success due to luck: 14.45%
Profit: +96.00 units
Commission @ 5%: -13.45 units
Net Profit: +82.55 units
Net ROI: +47.71% :)
====================


Next Saturday will be the last day of the trial.

[Pugnosis]

Pixie, have you been laying/backing these selections or are you just paper trading at the moment? Why I ask this is that with the $11.00 cut off you could get caught depending on what time you place your bet. I say this because Sweet Julia was available to lay between $10 and $11 yesterday for about 5 min before it drifted late.

Therefore going by BAT your day looked really good but doing it manually depending on what time your results could change drastically day to day!

Cheers

[Chrome Prince]

BAT is supposed to give you the last traded price, so apparently "if" you backed it just prior to the jump this would be the price. However, people need to be aware that the BAT price is often incorrect. I have compared the downloaded history with BAT prices and it is very often way out.

But over 100's of bets, I'm sure it evens out to be reliable enough for system testing.

[AngryPixie]

Hi Pugnosis

I'm only laying the "11.00 or less" selections, and at the moment only for small money. I find I can usually get a feel for the direction of the market (tools with near realtime market updates like Fairbot are essential), so I'll generally put an offer in just below the current highest offer, and tweak it up or down depending on the moves. You'll see this in the attached file "CancelledLays.gif". My first offer of $9.80 on "Sweet Julia" was placed around 16:07 (3 minutes before the scheduled jump), I then tweaked this up to $10.00 at 16:08. The drift continued so the $10.00 offer was cancelled fairly quickly and I placed my final offer of $11.00 within the last two minutes before the scheduled jump. You'll see this offer lapsed in the file "LapsedLays.gif".

Using an exchange you could easily place a "stop loss" bid above the $11.00 cut-off mark. So if you layed early and the price drifts you could cover your position. I've done this in the past.

I do take your point that but for a couple of keener backers "Sweet Julia" could have started at $11.00 or less, but on the other side of the coin, over the duration of this trial there's been a number of selections that have drifted over the $11.00 mark just before the jump and didn't end up winning the race. These were then recorded in the "11.50 and greater" price division as a loss. Swings and roundabouts :)

I've tried to be pretty straight up with the results and have used the B.A.T. prices as these are as close as you're likely to get if you lay the selection right on the jump. As Chrome says, any variances are likely to even out so for system test purposes I reckon they'll do. The prices posted are then available for anybody to check for themselves, and I don't insult anybody's intelligence by making claims of laying at lesser prices.

I recieved an e-mail yesterday from another forum member thanking me for yesterdays longshot tips. Can't please all the people all the time I guess ;)

Only one week to go.

[Pugnosis]

Hey Pixie

I hope you didn't take my post as you trying to fudge results. I was just curious that is all. I reckon that this is one of the better threads I have followed and if I had your email address I would have emailed you too with congratulations! With a statistics type background Betfair just intrigues me and I am trying to read the markets to gain an advantage whether it be with trading or straight out backing and laying to get best price. So far there is nothing that is obvious to me!

Sweet Julia was just a perfect example for me to ask how you went about using your selections as with a cutoff like you have got their may be a few that might change from back to lay and vice versa. I suppose it will all even out in the end!

Keep up the good work as these threads are valuable reading

Cheers
Pugnosis

[AngryPixie]

Pug

No I didn't take it that way at all. :)

You've highlighted the issue I was having earlier in the thread as to whether I should keep putting these selections up. When you set a limit (just like a speed limit on the road) I think there's a tendency for it to be tested. In this case it looks to me as if the posted price of all the selections are slowly being drawn into the area around $11.00. This is a visual observation only but at a glace our lay accidents are at longer prices, and our backed winners are shorter. I doubt very much that we'll get winners like Cinque Cento at $34.00 and losers like Chief Hennessy at $2.40 whilst the selections are posted publically.

I think it's quite likely that some of the selections would have finished in the other price range to the one they did if they were not listed here. Not blowing my own trumpet in saying that just an observation given the 100-150 hits this thread gets on a Saturday morning and early afternoon. The results have become skewed to the centre I think, and some dangerously so :( I think the impatient or inexperienced are probably taking silly prices too early in the betting.

The secret really is to get on as late in the piece at possible when the variations in the markets have been evened out. As I said earlier you do get a feel for the moves after you've been laying for a while, though this isn't always true of the provincial markets where some odd moves can take place very late in betting. :mad: Also take advantage of the benefits of using an exchange and protect yourself by "greening-up", or taking a small loss if the market swings against you. Tools like Fairbot and Bet Angel Basic have a "bum covering" button that let's you do this with a single click.

Again Pug, it never even crossed my mind that you were having a "go". Anyway it's all about learning from and sharing the experiences of others, which goes hand-in-hand with constructive critisism. I think this point has been lost in some of the other threads. ;)

PS: I'm just finishing "Fooled By Randomness" (http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Markets/dp/0812975219/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/104-6372106-7217533?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1182739490&sr=8-1) by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The guy's had way too much time to contemplate his belly button, but does present some eye opening arguments as to the role of luck in the markets. An insightful but over-wordy read.

PPS: Thanks for the nice comments too.

[Chrome Prince]

As I said earlier you do get a feel for the moves after you've been laying for a while, though this isn't always true of the provincial markets where some odd moves can take place very late in betting. :mad:

Speaking off strange moves, there was a horse called Bankers Lamp in the first race at Cranbourne on Saturday that opened with the books @ $2.70 and blew like a tornado out to $41 and up to $110 with betfair.

They very nearly got their fingers burned badly as it ran second.

I very nearly scored the bet of the day ;)

This sort of thing is happening frighteningly regularly.

[AngryPixie]

Yep that's a big move alright :) I find the Gold Coast is the worst culprit on a Saturday, but nothing like that.

[AngryPixie]

Well this is it for "Pixie's Pix" on this forum. As promised the trial ends today, which looks like a bit of a quiet and tricky one. Thanks for you indulgence. Hope you've managed to stay ahead. :)

CHEL03-07 Tic Toc Tac
CHEL05-01 El Seigneur
CHEL05-07 Miss Presley
CHEL07-10 Silent Action
HAWK09-12 Jewel Point
MORN06-05 Gold Play
MORN06-06 Robbery Under Arms
MORN06-08 Juivanka
MORN07-06 Chu Chu Mama
MORN08-05 Senor De Lago
MORN09-07 Madicon Trail
RAND02-02 Avoid Heathrow
RAND03-07 Grizz
RAND05-07 Rose Of Ghataas
SANH08-04 Snappy Tom
SANH08-12 General Nediym
SCST02-06 Court Adjourned

BLMT and TWBA to follow.

[AngryPixie]

Oops :o

Thought something didn't look quite right. Forgot the Gold Coast and one selection from Sandown. Sorry. Not too late though.

GCST06-04 Authoress
GCST06-05 Grand Lover
GCST06-08 Wheel The Lead
GCST09-09 Crackaway
SANH06-02 Chiack

[AngryPixie]

Here's the Belmont selections.

BLMT02-03 Mythalo
BLMT02-05 Hide The Loot
BLMT05-06 Old Guru
BLMT06-06 Metal Power
BLMT06-07 Reactive Thunder
BLMT07-01 Arctic Park
BLMT07-08 River Mist

TWBA still to come.

PS: Suddenly it's turned into a busy day :rolleyes:

[AngryPixie]

Doesn't look like there are any selections for Toowoomba. :( All the best

[AngryPixie]

Well there you go :)

Arctic Park wrecked the fun but the win of Jewel Point made up for it. I must start backing those long shots :o

That's it for the time being. There's something else in the workshop but it's a little way away.

Prices from the B.A.T. Gold Play was a scratching.


====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
BLMT02-05 Hide The Loot 3.45 ... WON -2.45
BLMT05-06 Old Guru 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
BLMT07-01 Arctic Park 10.00 ... WON -9.00
BLMT07-08 River Mist 9.40 ... LOST +1.00
CHEL03-07 Tic Toc Tac 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
GCST06-04 Authoress 8.20 ... LOST +1.00
GCST06-08 Wheel The Lead 11.00 ... LOST +1.00
MORN06-08 Juivanka 9.00 ... LOST +1.00
MORN07-06 Chu Chu Mama 4.60 ... LOST +1.00
RAND03-07 Grizz 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
SANH06-02 Chiack 8.20 ... LOST +1.00
SANH08-12 Corporal Nediym* 8.00 ... LOST +1.00

Results April 21st - June 30th
----------
Number of Selections: 157.00
Observed Successes: 139.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.54%
Expected Successes: 127.01
Expected Strike Rate: 80.90%
Advantage: 9.44%
Success due to luck: 0.27%
Profit: +27.15 units
Commission @ 5%: -6.95 units
Net Profit: +20.20 units
Net ROI: +12.86% :)
====================

====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BLMT02-03 Mythalo 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT06-06 Metal Power 25.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT06-07 Reactive Thunder 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL05-01 El Seigneur 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL05-07 Miss Presley 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL07-10 Silent Action 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST09-09 Crackaway 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
HAWK09-12 Jewel Point 32.00 ... WON +31.00
MORN06-06 Robbery Under Arms 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
MORN08-05 Senor De Lago 21.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORN09-07 Madison Trail 18.50 ... LOST -1.00
RAND02-02 Avoid Heathrow 27.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND05-07 Rose Of Ghataas 20.00 ... LOST -1.00
SANH08-04 Snappy Tom 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
SCST02-06 Court Adjourned 16.50 ... LOST -1.00

Results April 21st - June 30th
----------
Number of Selections: 188.00
Observed Successes: 15.00
Observed Strike Rate: 7.98%
Expected Successes: 9.60
Expected Strike Rate: 5.11%
Advantage: 56.26%
Success due to luck: 14.61%
Profit: +113.00 units
Commission @ 5%: -15.05 units
Net Profit: +97.95 units
Net ROI: +52.10% :D
====================


* I gave Corporal Nediym a promotion when I posted the selections.

[Chrome Prince]

Well done Angry Pixie, it's all good hey ;)

Interesting to note the profit and POT is better by backing the longer horses than laying the shorter ones.

Combine them both and you have a pretty good consistent return.

[AngryPixie]

Thanks Chrome. It's done pretty well for such a simple system. The profit and advantage figures are merging together a bit but I'll be happy if I can keep the lay side around the 10% mark. There'll be better prices now it's not public.

Saturday was one of the best day's on the lay this year. Finished 30.9 units up :D

[AngryPixie]

Let's blow the cobwebs off and see if this still works. Lay if $11 or less at the jump, otherwise back them. Other venues to follow. :)

E_FM02-13 Beartracker
E_FM03-03 Rhymenoreason
E_FM04-04 Reincarnation
FLEM06-02 Magnus
FLEM09-06 Orange County
FLEM09-09 Count To Zero
NCLE01-04 Lady's Counsel
NCLE07-03 Alotta Lute
NCLE08-02 Carnegie Prince
NCLE09-04 Centover
NCLE09-10 Oriental Belle
RHIL09-05 Spy Zam

[AngryPixie]

BR_H03-04 Delta Devil
BR_H04-06 Dandy Jester
EHPE06-06 Ivortov
EHPE08-04 Kanejake
GCST05-03 Gypsy Mist
GCST05-05 Tread Lightly
GCST06-06 Legally Hot
GCST06-08 Kalinga Ivor
MORP08-07 Catwalk Minnie
TWBA03-05 Aussie Sunset
TWBA05-11 Laertes
TWBA07-09 But Say

[Merriguy]

Doing well so far, Pixie (touch wood).

[AngryPixie]

Well that still works I guess. The "Lay 11.00 or less" group could have been better but only finished -2.55* units down. The "Back 11.50 or greater" group did well and ended +$19.97* units up. Overall a +17.42* unit profit for the day. Not too bad for an old system. I'll have another go some other day. http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/smile.gif

Prices from B.A.T.

====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
E_FM02-13 Beartracker 7.40 ... LOST +0.95
E_FM03-03 Rhymenoreason 5.50 ... LOST +0.95
E_FM04-04 Reincarnation 8.00 ... LOST +0.95
EHPE06-06 Ivortov 8.80 ... LOST +0.95
EHPE08-04 Kanejake 8.00 ... LOST +0.95
FLEM09-06 Orange County 9.20 ... WON -8.20
GCST05-05 Tread Lightly 10.50 ... LOST +0.95
GCST06-06 Legally Hot 11.00 ... LOST +0.95
NCLE01-04 Lady's Counsel 5.00 ... LOST +0.95
NCLE07-03 Alotta Lute 6.20 ... LOST +0.95
NCLE08-02 Carnegie Prince 5.80 ... WON -4.80
NCLE09-04 Centover 9.20 ... LOST +0.95
NCLE09-10 Oriental Belle 9.00 ... LOST +0.95
====================
====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BR_H03-04 Delta Devil 15.00 ... WON +13.3
BR_H04-06 Dandy Jester 23.00 ... LOST -1.00
FLEM06-02 Magnus 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
FLEM09-09 Count To Zero 13.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST05-03 Gypsy Mist 11.50 ... LOST -1.00
GCST06-08 Kalinga Ivor 42.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORP08-07 Catwalk Minnie 75.00 ... LOST -1.00
RHIL09-05 Spy Zam 21.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA03-05 Aussie Sunset 28.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA05-11 Laertes 34.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA07-09 But Say 17.50 ... WON +15.67
====================


* 5% Betfair commission has been deducted from all wins

[AngryPixie]

Let's push out luck a little more. Other venues to follow.

FLEM02-01 Merlot Now
FLEM02-07 Lancettier
FLEM07-06 Cargo Cult
GEEL01-02 Distraction
GEEL08-06 Green Gem
K_GR05-05 Catchadane
K_GR10-07 I r i s h Myth
RHIL01-07 Lancaster Park
RHIL04-05 Exinite
RHIL05-03 Canary Islands
TAR_03-02 Sequenjar

[AngryPixie]

CHEL03-05 Gold Lens
CHEL03-09 Shanetty
CHEL04-04 Le Niska
DOOM01-07 I'm A Leader
DOOM01-08 Monashee Knight
DOOM02-07 Oh Ruby
DOOM03-04 Digging Deep
DOOM04-04 Sir Coup
DOOM05-05 Fine Cheval
DOOM08-11 Spirito Volante
GCST05-08 Jakelli
GCST06-06 Scent Of Gold
GCST07-03 Patties Mate
GCST08-01 Teletrader
GCST09-04 Norse Code

[AngryPixie]

TWBA01-09 Mother Craft
TWBA03-03 Backinaflash
TWBA04-03 Casaco

That's it for today!

[AngryPixie]

Nice day for those that lay these selections. The backers gave all of last weeks profits back. :( The winners will come.

====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
CHEL03-05 Gold Lens 5.90 ... LOST +0.95
DOOM03-04 Digging Deep 6.40 ... LOST +0.95
DOOM04-04 Sir Coup 3.95 ... WON -2.95
DOOM08-11 Spirito Volante 9.80 ... LOST +0.95
FLEM02-07 Lancettier 11.00 ... LOST +0.95
FLEM07-06 Cargo Cult 5.80 ... LOST +0.95
GCST06-06 Scent Of Gold 3.35 ... LOST +0.95
GCST08-01 Teletrader 3.75 ... LOST +0.95
GCST09-04 Norse Code 6.40 ... LOST +0.95
GEEL08-06 Green Gem 9.20 ... LOST +0.95
K_GR10-07 I r i s h Myth 10.50 ... LOST +0.95
TAR_03-02 Sequenjar 8.00 ... LOST +0.95
====================
====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
CHEL03-09 Shanetty 24.00 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL04-04 Le Niska 18.50 ... LOST -1.00
DOOM01-07 I'm A Leader 90.00 ... LOST -1.00
DOOM01-08 Monashee Knight 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
DOOM02-07 Oh Ruby 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
DOOM05-05 Fine Cheval 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
FLEM02-01 Merlot Now 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST05-08 Jakelli 24.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST07-03 Patties Mate 24.00 ... LOST -1.00
GEEL01-02 Distraction 30.00 ... LOST -1.00
K_GR05-05 Catchadane 16.50 ... LOST -1.00
RHIL01-07 Lancaster Park 11.50 ... LOST -1.00
RHIL04-05 Exinite 44.00 ... LOST -1.00
RHIL05-03 Canary Islands 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA01-09 Mother Craft 46.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA03-03 Backinaflash 11.50 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA04-03 Casaco 17.00 ... LOST -1.00
====================

[AngryPixie]

Longshot winners today?? TWBA to follow.

CAUL02-02 Blessed
CAUL02-08 Frisco Jess
CAUL06-11 Bonnelle
COFF04-02 Ruby Frisco
COFF06-08 Bangtail
DOOM03-03 Alternate
DOOM03-12 Ascendant
DOOM06-08 Skyleda
DOOM07-06 Cocktail Supreme
GCST04-05 Crackaway
GCST06-08 Billy Omen
GCST07-03 Crackenback
GCST09-06 Impetus
GCST09-12 Jimmyjim
NCLE03-07 Cardgames
NCLE06-01 Voltabolta
NCLE06-05 Chelmsford
NCLE09-06 Prima Gold
NCLE10-12 San Tango
OAKB04-03 Hamish The Brave
OAKB07-04 Palace General
OAKB09-09 Edge Off
RAND02-03 Light Red
RAND02-04 Pistols
RAND07-05 Casino Prince
RAND08-08 Sonic Quest
RAND09-04 Banc De Fortune
WOD_04-03 Riversdale
WOD_06-09 King's Beauty
WOD_08-03 Westbrook Lad

[AngryPixie]

With the late scratching in COFF06, #8 Bangtail is NO LONGER A SELECTION.

[AngryPixie]

TWBA05-05 Backinaflash
TWBA05-07 Mindil Beach
TWBA05-10 Telbron Gold
TWBA07-05 Preternaturally
TWBA08-13 Darbinga

[AngryPixie]

That went pretty well. We even won a race on protest :)

Back next Saturday.

Lay 11.00 or less: +4.45 :)
Back 11.50 or greater: +18.25 :)

====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
CAUL02-02 Blessed 7.60 ... LOST +0.95
CAUL06-11 Bonnelle 6.80 ... LOST +0.95
COFF04-02 Ruby Frisco 6.80 ... LOST +0.95
DOOM07-06 Cocktail Supreme 4.90 ... LOST +0.95
GCST06-08 Billy Omen 2.90 ... LOST +0.95
NCLE06-01 Voltabolta 3.55 ... LOST +0.95
NCLE06-05 Chelmsford 7.80 ... LOST +0.95
NCLE09-06 Prima Gold 9.20 ... LOST +0.95
NCLE10-12 San Tango 10.00 ... LOST +0.95
OAKB07-04 Palace General 10.00 ... LOST +0.95
RAND02-03 Light Red 3.40 ... WON -2.40
RAND07-05 Casino Prince 8.40 ... WON -7.40
RAND08-08 Sonic Quest 10.00 ... LOST +0.95
WOD_04-03 Riversdale 6.60 ... LOST +0.95
WOD_08-03 Westbrook Lad 8.20 ... LOST +0.95
TWBA05-05 Backinaflash 8.80 ... LOST +0.95
TWBA05-10 Telbron Gold 7.40 ... LOST +0.95
====================
====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
CAUL02-08 Frisco Jess 20.00 ... LOST -1.00
DOOM03-03 Alternate 20.00 ... LOST -1.00
DOOM03-12 Ascendant 32.00 ... LOST -1.00
DOOM06-08 Skyleda 60.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST04-05 Crackaway 23.00 ... WON +20.90
GCST07-03 Crackenback 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST09-06 Impetus 14.00 ... WON +12.35
GCST09-12 Jimmyjim 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
NCLE03-07 Cardgames 24.00 ... LOST -1.00
OAKB04-03 Hamish The Brave 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
OAKB09-09 Edge Off 17.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND02-04 Pistols 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
RAND09-04 Banc De Fortune 21.00 ... LOST -1.00
WOD_06-09 King's Beauty 30.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA05-07 Mindil Beach 19.50 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA07-05 Preternaturally 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA08-13 Darbinga 25.00 ... LOST -1.00
====================

[AngryPixie]

Running late today :(

BDGO04-09 Imperial Mist
BDGO06-10 In An Instant
BDGO07-01 Dane Park
BDGO08-07 Gooram
BDGO08-09 Money Road
DOOM02-11 Erembourg
DOOM03-06 Craiglea Countess
DOOM03-13 Key To Happiness
DOOM04-10 Prince Lionheart
DOOM06-06 Leica Launch
GCST05-07 Whatever It Takes
GCST08-05 Overworked
GCST08-11 True Cross
K_GR05-09 Raspberry Licorice
K_GR07-08 Beatmore
M_V_05-02 Prima Nocte
M_V_06-06 Blitz'em Riley
M_V_07-04 Perusen
M_V_07-09 Mr Speedstar
M_V_08-05 Judusk
M_V_08-07 Riceman
MORP01-14 Akatak
MORP05-03 El Maze
MORP05-07 Spielmeister
MORP05-10 Flying Object
MORP08-02 Amici Forever
MORP08-07 Ambika
QBYN05-09 For The Way
QBYN07-02 Black Sensation
RAND08-05 Fooram
RAND08-15 Come On Cugat
RAND09-06 Deloraine
RAND09-14 Ruby Bree

Busy day. TWBA to follow.

[AngryPixie]

With the late scratching in M_V_06, #7 Riceman is NO LONGER A SELECTION.

[AngryPixie]

TWBA02-14 Halo Boy
TWBA04-07 Bee Dub
TWBA06-03 Miss Indiana

[AngryPixie]

Well that's it for a while. May bring this back some other time. How'd we go since March 8th? Ran out of fingers but these are roughly correct. All the best.

Lay 11.00 or less: +17.95 http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/smile.gif
Back 11.50 or greater: +19.47 http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/smile.gif

====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
BDGO04-09 Imperial Mist 11.00 ... LOST +0.95
BDGO06-10 In An Instant 9.80 ... LOST +0.95
BDGO08-09 Money Road 11.00 ... LOST +0.95
DOOM03-13 Key To Happiness 8.60 ... WON -7.60
GCST05-07 Whatever It Takes 8.60 ... LOST +0.95
GCST08-11 True Cross 8.00 ... LOST +0.95
K_GR07-08 Beatmore 10.00 ... LOST +0.95
M_V_05-02 Prima Nocte 9.40 ... LOST +0.95
M_V_07-04 Perusen 6.60 ... LOST +0.95
M_V_07-09 Mr Speedstar 4.80 ... LOST +0.95
M_V_08-05 Judusk 9.60 ... LOST +0.95
MORP01-14 Akatak 7.80 ... LOST +0.95
MORP05-07 Spielmeister 6.20 ... LOST +0.95
QBYN07-02 Black Sensation 3.30 ... LOST +0.95
RAND08-05 Fooram 10.50 ... LOST +0.95
RAND09-06 Deloraine 7.20 ... LOST +0.95
TWBA04-07 Bee Dub 6.40 ... LOST +0.95
TWBA06-03 Miss Indiana 8.00 ... LOST +0.95
====================
====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BDGO07-01 Dane Park 16.00 ... WON +14.25
BDGO08-07 Gooram 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
DOOM02-11 Erembourg 27.00 ... LOST -1.00
DOOM03-06 Craiglea Countess 42.00 ... LOST -1.00
DOOM04-10 Prince Lionheart 17.00 ... LOST -1.00
DOOM06-06 Leica Launch 19.50 ... LOST -1.00
GCST08-05 Overworked 18.00 ... LOST -1.00
K_GR05-09 Raspberry Licorice 19.50 ... LOST -1.00
M_V_06-06 Blitz'em Riley 11.50 ... LOST -1.00
MORP05-03 El Maze 26.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORP05-10 Flying Object 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
MORP08-02 Amici Forever 29.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORP08-07 Ambika 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
QBYN05-09 For The Way 27.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND08-15 Come On Cugat 15.50 ... LOST -1.00
RAND09-14 Ruby Bre 30.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA02-14 Halo Boy 32.00 ... LOST -1.00
====================

[AngryPixie]

Some dicey tracks today.

CHEL06-04 Hezabout
CHEL08-06 Last Word
E_FM01-03 Skyleda
E_FM01-06 Jussemi
E_FM05-09 Alverta
E_FM05-15 Sir Monashee
E_FM08-05 Go Sequalo
E_FM08-13 Chevron Island
FLEM04-08 Light Vision
FLEM06-03 Frigid
FLEM07-08 Jungle Ruler
GCST03-08 Flecked Marble
GCST04-02 Spin Zero
NCLE05-04 Rebel Prince
NCLE05-08 Shvay
NCLE05-11 Royal Sports
NCLE06-07 Pash N Dash
NCLE07-12 Selkrig
RAND04-03 Ausbred King
RAND05-01 Vision And Power
RAND05-05 No Name For A Lady
RAND05-07 Ready To Impress
RAND06-06 Teasing
RAND07-03 Come In Spanner
RAND07-09 Imagining
RAND08-01 Jacks Girl
SW_H05-05 Chantal Sally
SW_H07-04 Toouradvantage

[AngryPixie]

BLMT04-06 Love A Buzz
BLMT05-06 Dvoryan
BLMT07-01 Mr Diagnosis
BLMT07-08 Over Lock
BLMT08-06 Hide The Loot
TWBA04-05 Three Chances
TWBA05-01 Supreme Agenda

[AngryPixie]

That wasn't a very auspicious return. A couple of those longshots came close though http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/frown.gif

====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
BLMT05-06 Dvoryan 4.90 ... LOST +0.95
CHEL08-06 Last Word 8.20 ... LOST +0.95
E_FM01-03 Skyleda 6.80 ... LOST +0.95
E_FM05-09 Alverta 9.00 ... LOST +0.95
E_FM08-05 Go Sequalo 8.80 ... LOST +0.95
FLEM04-08 Light Vision 4.50 ... WON -3.50
FLEM06-03 Frigid 9.00 ... LOST +0.95
FLEM07-08 Jungle Ruler 10.00 ... LOST +0.95
GCST04-02 Spin Zero 7.20 ... WON -6.20
NCLE05-04 Rebel Prince 9.20 ... LOST +0.95
RAND05-01 Vision And Power 5.20 ... LOST +0.95
RAND05-05 No Name For A Lady 4.10 ... WON -3.10
RAND07-09 Imagining 5.80 ... LOST +0.95
====================
====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BLMT04-06 Love A Buzz 28.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT07-01 Mr Diagnosis 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT07-08 Over Lock 13.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT08-06 Hide The Loot 38.00 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL06-04 Hezabout 16.50 ... LOST -1.00
E_FM01-06 Jussemi 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
E_FM05-15 Sir Monashee 25.00 ... LOST -1.00
E_FM08-13 Chevron Island 18.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST03-08 Flecked Marble 15.50 ... LOST -1.00
NCLE05-08 Shvay 23.00 ... LOST -1.00
NCLE05-11 Royal Sports 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
NCLE06-07 Pash N Dash 36.00 ... LOST -1.00
NCLE07-12 Selkrig 26.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND04-03 Ausbred King 24.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND05-07 Ready To Impress 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND06-06 Teasing 11.50 ... LOST -1.00
RAND07-03 Come In Spanner 23.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND08-01 Jacks Girl 19.00 ... LOST -1.00
SW_H05-05 Chantal Sally 19.00 ... LOST -1.00
SW_H07-04 Toouradvantage 17.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA04-05 Three Chances 19.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA05-01 Supreme Agenda 19.00 ... LOST -1.00
====================

[AngryPixie]

Let's have another go. Running late so the rest to follow.

RAND01-01 Commemorating

[AngryPixie]

CHEL01-03 Bold Line
CHEL01-07 Last Word
CHEL03-02 Redhead Rage
GCST05-03 Can Man
GCST06-09 August Fair
GCST07-09 Prayer Chamber
IPSW01-07 Miss Sarah Jane
IPSW02-06 Teletor
IPSW05-01 Funlove
IPSW06-01 Daunting Lad
IPSW07-02 Stormhill
IPSW07-06 Diamondsondinside
K_GR03-07 Monte Cavallo
K_GR06-07 War Emperor
KILM05-01 Jygah
KILM07-05 Olympias Girl
KILM08-09 Wehaveadream
RAND03-05 Matchless
RAND03-06 Viva Caro
RAND05-07 Celtic Empire
SAND03-06 Behold
SAND03-10 Destiny Calls

BLMT and TWBA to follow

[AngryPixie]

BLMT02-03 Brokaw
BLMT02-07 Blizzard Ridge
BLMT07-10 West River Charley
BLMT08-07 Certain Gold
BLMT08-09 Goldtown
BLMT08-14 Valkyry Prince
TWBA07-06 Boombalarda

[AngryPixie]

That went a bit bit better than last week http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/smile.gif

====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
BLMT08-07 Certain Gold 9.40 ... LOST +0.95
BLMT08-09 Goldtown 5.40 ... LOST +0.95
BLMT08-14 Valkyry Prince 7.60 ... LOST +0.95
CHEL01-07 Last Word 11.00 ... LOST +0.95
CHEL03-02 Redhead Rage 6.80 ... LOST +0.95
GCST05-03 Can Man 8.60 ... LOST +0.95
IPSW05-01 Funlove 7.80 ... LOST +0.95
IPSW06-01 Daunting Lad 6.20 ... LOST +0.95
IPSW07-06 Diamondsondinside 10.50 ... LOST +0.95
K_GR06-07 War Emperor 8.40 ... LOST +0.95
KILM07-05 Olympias Girl 9.40 ... LOST +0.95
RAND01-01 Commemorating 5.30 ... LOST +0.95
RAND03-05 Matchless 7.40 ... LOST +0.95
RAND05-07 Celtic Empire 8.00 ... LOST +0.95
SAND03-06 Behold 7.40 ... WON -6.40
====================
====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BLMT02-03 Brokaw 21.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT02-07 Blizzard Ridge 55.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT07-10 West River Charley 48.00 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL01-03 Bold Line 26.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST06-09 August Fair 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
GCST07-09 Prayer Chamber 26.00 ... WON +23.75
IPSW01-07 Miss Sarah Jane 70.00 ... LOST -1.00
IPSW02-06 Teletor 13.00 ... LOST -1.00
IPSW07-02 Stormhill 23.00 ... LOST -1.00
K_GR03-07 Monte Cavallo 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
KILM05-01 Jygah 19.00 ... LOST -1.00
KILM08-09 Wehaveadream 11.50 ... LOST -1.00
RAND03-06 Viva Caro 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
SAND03-10 Destiny Calls 11.50 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA07-06 Boombalarda 21.00 ... LOST -1.00
====================

[AngryPixie]

A reasonably quiet day. BLMT and TWBA to follow.

EFRM01-08 Bann Ruby
EFRM06-05 Bianca
GCST04-07 Minnie Bright
GCST06-02 Take The Plea
M_V_04-01 Johnny Knoxville
M_V_05-04 Kindrate
M_V_07-04 Clavillo
M_V_07-10 Redhead Rage
MORP03-02 Solitas
MORP07-08 Centurytwentyone
NCLE03-05 Aqua Blessing
NCLE08-01 Delenatii
NCLE08-09 Star Of Seattle
RHIL05-04 For Cruyffs Sake
RHIL06-01 Mr Ubiquitous
RHIL06-09 No Name For A Lady
RHIL07-02 Illuminates
RHIL08-10 Rocky Cobra

[AngryPixie]

BLMT05-04 Friartruck
BLMT08-04 So Secret
BLMT09-06 Midtime
BLMT09-07 Star Risca

Nothing for TWBA