If you've been reading my lay thread "Some Oz lay selections" http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ead.php?t=15751 you'll know I've been testing a lay selection method that unfortunately turns up some nice priced winners in the price range "11.50 and greater"*. Lays in the price range "11.00 and less" have managed to produce a profit but laying anything outside this range look's pretty fatal. Some quick calculations suggests that backing the selections 11.50 and greater should continue to produce some decent priced winners. I'll admit defeat in laying these so I'll turn the testing around and suggest these are backed to win instead.

20070421 ASCT05-01 Is Amazing 4.00 ... WON -3.00
20070421 ASCT08-03 Boy Canny Go 8.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 CRAN08-05 Archachon 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 CRAN08-07 Mr Wang 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 E_FM01-08 Gonzalo 19.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 E_FM02-07 Leica Launch 15.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 E_FM06-01 Magically 6.40 ... WON -5.40
20070421 E_FM06-02 Love And Money 7.40 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 E_FM06-09 No Mistake 46.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 GCST05-04 The Chanster 4.10 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 GCST08-05 Tag 15.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 HAWK03-01 Hadaaf 7.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 HAWK03-06 Count Milano 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 HAWK04-10 Hesiod 11.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 MORP01-02 Dandy Jester 27.00 ... WON +26.00
20070421 MORP01-03 Foolish Lad 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 MORP02-02 Exalted Time 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 MORP04-04 Isanami 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 MORP04-07 Maloose 4.90 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 MORP07-03 Reshuffles 21.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 NCLE01-08 Queen Nadima 6.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 SANL05-06 No Trouble 19.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 SANL06-10 Satin Robes 11.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 SANL07-01 Sarrera 4.90 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 SANL08-07 Rulan Ruby 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 TWBA03-06 Creswina 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 TWBA03-07 Ultra Modern 44.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 TWBA04-06 Rockababe 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 TWBA04-07 Catch The Cougar 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 TWBA05-08 Regal Charmer 85.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 ASCT07-16 Webb Ellis 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 BATH04-06 Royal Attitude 5.50 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 BATH04-07 Owatonna 6.40 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 BATH05-02 Dame Seven 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 BATH05-06 Pickett's Charge 13.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 BATH06-05 Effdeecabernet 7.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 CHEL04-01 Londo 4.30 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 CHEL06-07 Croquet 6.80 ... WON -5.80
20070425 CHEL08-02 Marzotto 14.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 CHEL08-16 Woodland Jack 19.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 GCST04-05 Glowing Rose 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 GCST07-09 Sky Mine 11.50 ... WON +10.50
20070425 GCST07-11 Inside Knowledge 17.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 GCST08-11 Sweetmandy 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 MOE_04-03 Pride N Talaq 7.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 MOE_06-07 Don't Be A Devil 46.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 MOE_06-08 Elliptical 16.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 MOE_07-01 Cobalta 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 MOE_08-07 Indicates 34.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 M_V_02-08 Joontoo Gemini 25.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 M_V_04-04 Vengo 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 M_V_07-03 Miss La Tar 19.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 RAND01-06 Command Ruler 8.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 RAND04-08 Cagey Savings 70.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 RAND05-08 Big Head 44.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 RAND07-03 Sussman 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 ASCT04-03 Cat In A Hat 8.20 LOST +1.00
20070428 ASCT07-07 Zambane 25.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 ASCT08-05 Dee Picked 5.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 ASCT08-10 Lizardis 7.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 CAUL03-01 Speedy Rossa 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 CAUL05-02 Life's A Bounty 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 CAUL06-03 Rockford Bay 20.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 CAUL08-02 Pinezero 11.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM02-05 Stirling 14.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 E_FM02-10 Moonlight Shadow 8.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM04-07 Vietnam 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM05-04 Mesmerising 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM05-07 Point Made 26.00 ... WON +25.00
20070428 E_FM07-06 Primus 10.50 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM08-01 Omnitrader 7.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM08-03 High Academy 38.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 E_FM08-08 Picablu 9.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM08-12 Noble Gaze 14.00 ... WON +13.00
20070428 GCST02-04 Casa Cardoso 17.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 GCST02-10 Monagetti 13.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 GCST05-04 Golden Whistler 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 GCST05-06 Nepro 19.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 GCST05-10 In Order 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 GCST06-07 Muscle Up 10.50 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 GCST08-04 Aquaracer 6.20 ... WON -5.20
20070428 GCST08-05 Bushie 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 GCST08-09 Daintree Crossing 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 MORP03-09 Night Gazer 24.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 MORP04-09 Lessie 29.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 RHIL03-06 Rubinda 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 RHIL03-07 Oakland Lad 7.60 ... WON -6.60
20070428 RHIL07-09 Newport 30.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 RHIL08-02 Biscayne Bay 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 BLMT03-11 Trustadane 30.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 BLMT06-06 Star Laser 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 BLMT07-10 Doyoudare 17.00 ... WON +16.00
20070505 BLMT08-06 Yeah Yeah 18.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 BLMT08-09 Boy Canny Go 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 BRAT05-05 Decamp 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 BRAT07-02 Saliente 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 BRAT07-11 Golden Engagement 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 GAWL06-15 Just A Giggle 27.00 ... WON +26.00
20070505 GAWL08-13 Warwick's Brother 38.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 GCST02-01 Vitesse Dane 4.10 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 GCST06-03 King Rex 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 GCST07-12 Gaze 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 IPSW06-05 Darry 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 IPSW07-05 Snow Destiny 15.00 ... WON +14.00
20070505 IPSW08-15 Lightning Brown 48.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 K_GR06-06 Gunna Happen 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 K_GR07-01 Geiger Spirit 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 K_GR07-02 Double Dip 8.60 ... WON -7.60
20070505 K_GR08-02 Jet Hawk 5.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 M_V_06-04 Ghost Party 80.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 M_V_08-07 Carat Cake 9.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 RHIL03-03 Scissons 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 RHIL05-06 Lady Gulch 5.10 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 RHIL07-05 Rena's Lady 38.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 RHIL08-12 Junebug 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 TWBA05-08 Ruby's Party 11.50 ... LOST -1.00

===
RESULTS: April 21st - May 5th

Lay 11.00 or less
===
Number of Selections: 53.00
Observed Successes: 47.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.68%
Expected Successes: 45.62
Expected Strike Rate: 86.08%
Advantage: 3.02%
Success due to luck: 55.00%
Units Profit: +13.40
ROI: +25.28%

Back 11.50 or greater
===
Number of Selections: 63.00
Observed Successes: 7.00
Observed Strike Rate: 11.11%
Expected Successes: 3.41
Expected Strike Rate: 5.41%
Advantage: 105.47%
Success due to luck: 14.97%
Units Profit: +74.50
ROI: +118.25%


* Hopefully you've been very cautious in this range. I did post plenty of disclaimers.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Above are all the selections I've posted to date. This list looks a little different than what was posted in the other thread as those that started at 11.50 and greater are listed as if we'd backed and not layed them. Below these is a summary of how we'd have faired and I think you'll agree we'd have done quite nicely. I'm not suggesting that the performance of the selections at 11.50 and greater are going to continue so strongly but I do think it's going to continue to turn up some longshot winners. You'd have done even better if you'd restricted your win bets to those that started between 11.50 and about 36.00.

The best way to play these would be to wait till seconds before the jump to place either your lays or back's. If the selection looks as though it'll start at 11.00 or less then it's a lay, anything else should be backed to win. The prices used have been provided by the Betfair Advantage Tool (B.A.T.). Please use caution until we've collected more data. I'll work out how many tests we'll need to conduct and let you know, but at present neither price range is producing a Chi-test score that would convince me to put proper money on these, and in fact the success of the selections in the range 11.00 and less is still more likely to have been the result of luck. So little money only please.

Today's selection will follow later this morning.

Good luck and please stroke my ego by keeping the feedback going

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

On ya AP. Thanks for the hard work. Watching with interest.

__________________
"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

Here we go. Good luck.


CAUL07-12 Itsamonty
GCST04-06 Van Rooyen
GCST05-05 Sweetmandy
GCST06-10 Orpen Rose
MORP03-05 Ernie's Molly
MORP04-03 Scary Smokovek
MORP06-02 Pride Of Archway
MORP06-03 Zimstar
MORP07-13 I'm A Goody
NCLE06-07 Triumphator
NCLE08-02 Chief Hennessy
RAND02-06 Zappatore
RAND06-09 Nothin But A Dane
RAND07-03 Global One
RAND07-08 Flying Orders
RAND07-09 Rubinda
SEYM06-04 Mahiman
SEYM08-12 Yamaki
SEYM08-17 Bowl Along

BLMT and TWBA to follow.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

With the late scratching of Wingate Street in the 7th at Belmont the following now qualify's as a late selection.

BLMT07-04 Coalseam

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Not a bad day really. The "11.00 or less" division had an excellent day, and the "11.50 or greater" division had the type of day you'd expect from it's 9-10% strike rate. The winners will come.

I'm listing the results so they're a bit less confusing. All prices from B.A.T. Keep the feedback coming. Interested to hear your ideas.


====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
CAUL07-12 Itsamonty 10.50 ... LOST +1.00
GCST04-06 Van Rooyen 8.20 ... LOST +1.00
GCST05-05 Sweetmandy 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
GCST06-10 Orpen Rose 4.80 ... LOST +1.00
MORP06-03 Zimstar 4.20 ... LOST +1.00
NCLE06-07 Triumphator 5.10 ... WON -4.10
NCLE08-02 Chief Hennessy 2.40 ... LOST +1.00
RAND07-09 Rubinda 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
SEYM08-17 Bowl Along 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA02-05 Laurie's Lad 10.50 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA02-06 Real Swell 10.00 ... LOST +1.00

Results April 21st - May 12th
----------
Number of Selections: 64.00
Observed Successes: 57.00
Observed Strike Rate: 89.06%
Expected Successes: 54.83
Expected Strike Rate: 85.67%
Advantage: 3.96%
Success due to luck: 38.45%
Units Profit: +19.30
ROI: +30.16%
====================


====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BLMT03-11 Trustadane 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT07-04 Coalseam 27.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT08-11 Cubic Zirconia 18.50 ... LOST -1.00
MORP03-05 Ernie's Molly 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORP04-03 Scary Smokovek 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
MORP06-02 Pride Of Archway 18.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORP07-13 I'm A Goody 17.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND02-06 Zappatore 29.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND06-09 Nothin But A Dane 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
RAND07-03 Global One 30.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND07-08 Flying Orders 14.50 ... LOST -1.00
SEYM06-04 Mahiman 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
SEYM08-12 Yamaki 24.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA04-07 Right Spice 36.00 ... LOST -1.00

Results April 21st - May 12th
----------
Number of Selections: 77.00
Observed Successes: 7.00
Observed Strike Rate: 9.09%
Expected Successes: 4.15
Expected Strike Rate: 5.39%
Advantage: 74.16%
Success due to luck: 25.84%
Units Profit: +60.50
ROI: +78.57%
====================

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Afternoon AP,

I've manufactured so many systems that try to tap in on longer prices but what Ive discovered as a rule is that the higher the price the more eratic the run of outs. So much is this evident to me that I now believe a similar result might be achieved by throwing a dart.
Things like jocks with high neural scores on cart horses, races where there is only one replacement jock and it concerns a long price runner etc. etc.
You can do great for weeks or even months on end and then it all goes south.

Drives me freakin' crazy!

I've put this up not to pour cold water on your ideas but simply to let you know what I've been through. This is why for some years now I have been a place better on favourites only where I manage to score an insanely high SR at the expense of prices. I do everything they say don't do on this forum and yet it works fine for me. Things like I only use Qld TAB for my bets. (Reason is I can watch my horse get out the stall before I click the button!).

Don't forget mum.

__________________
"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

To be honest with you I'm less interested in the backing side of this test. I'm primarily a layer but I know alot of people like to have a go at the roughies and this selection method has turned up more than it should have. Could be a purple patch, we won't really have an idea until we reach a couple of hundred more samples. More on this to follow.


Yes I like that there are so many permutations available when investing on thoroughbreds. Finding the right one's is where the fun is. Even breaking the "rules" can turn a profit for a while.


Cheeky.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Good luck.

CHEL03-07 Lessie
CHEL04-02 Merlot Now
CHEL06-02 Toxic Free Mallee
DOOM03-19 My Hangover
DOOM07-04 Coalesce
DOOM07-08 Cinque Cento
GCST03-02 Brinkley Light
GCST06-07 Screen Siren
GCST07-03 Hallside Hero
GCST09-14 Experience
RHIL02-11 Montana Royale
RHIL03-06 Parfumier
RHIL04-09 Scorched Earth
RHIL07-06 Newport
RHIL08-06 Tolo
SAND05-01 Bel Danoro
SAND06-06 Desert Master
SAND08-11 Roubechon

BLMT and TWBA to follow

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash