Raw Instinct
9th June 2007, 08:04 AM
very tough day not sure what the track is going to be like or what sort of bias there will be during the day my guess is outside is where you want to end up towards the back half of the day. I am going to work with a slow rating but I have heard it could be even better than that so I am just not sure.
Race 1: I have a couple I don't mind here High Academy probably slightly ahead of Bohemian Dancer and Skyleda and my old man has been telling me not to leave out Abu Simbel so for that fact I will include in my thoughts. they all have a bit of wet track form. This first race is going to be a bit of a guessing game I will look for a bit of value would probably want to get double figures on any of my selections although I might be willing to go shorter for High Academy maybe around $8.
Race 2: I like one of my favs here Roman Squire his last run was very nice a real powerful win I think Pengelly got this horse to improve by a few lengths really hit the line with a bit in hand, The danger to Roman Squire might be Wings of Seraph has some wet track form and i really liked the way it got home in a fairly run race last start. Roman Squire is my bet here I would like to get as close to $5 as I can probably don't really want to go any lower than $3.50 might have a little e/w on Wings of Seraph if it is up around the $20 mark.
Race 3: Not interested here to be honest smallish field lacking anything that i really like the fav loooks hard to beat but Mohawk has a little bit of ability if he got out over $25 i might be tempted to have a go here. doubtful betting race Mohawk the only one I would consider and he would have to be big odds.
Race 4: I have had a long hard look at this race and the one I keep coming back to is Primal Impulse the jockey does worry me a little but I will give her a chance, The other horse I would consider is Tenshi a horse over from a good stable in Adelaide form doesn't look to bad and this is not a strong race. Primal Impulse looks hard to beat but certainly isn't a certainty would entertain Tenshi at $10 or better.
Race 5: I amnot interested here at all as a betting prospect Falvalea might be a rough sort of hope agains the favs but not about to throw any money on it. No Bet
Race 6: terribly hard race I could give a chance to just about anything in the race,
#1 Xcellent has more ability than any of these but eighteen months off the seen with stemcell surgery is a big ask if at his best he could easily blow these away a repeat of his mudgway wins this IMO.
#2 Malcolm can't be treated as a chance on his last run it was awful and if anything he went backwards in the straight no hope for mine.
#3 Mitanni his form is good but my query with him is maybe he is coming to the end of his tether he has had a long capaign I am just thinking that he may have already produced his best.
#4 Gee I Jane I had been told was flying in NZ and was supposed to really give this race an almighty shake but she has not fired a shot here although I have heard excuses and maybe they are warranted and although she wouldn't surprise me I couldn't have her.
#5 Black Ink he is a place chance in this he just can't finish off 1400m properly IMO a place I would nearly expect however a win would really shock me.
#6 Gold Edition all the talk this morning it almost sounds like they are going to hand this race to this horse or atleast try to I just hope this is not a trot and canter if she wins then good on her but atleast do it on her meritts not have the race handed to her, I do still feel she is a query at 1400m but she might not have to run 1400m and if that is the case she might prove hard to run past.
#7 Royal he is a good honest horse always puts in and doesn't go to badly on wet tracks his 1st run here was pretty good when I didn't think he was asked to do to much and drops 5.5kgs on that effort he has raced well in good company before and will be hitting the line in this race.
#8 Stormhill thought this was a great run 1st up in brissie interesting they are going 2nd up into this race he can sit up near the pace I feel he will sit 2nd or 3rd and try and peel off them as they straighten I think at some point in the straight he will hit the lead whether he can hang on to it I amnot sure he is a horse I wouldn't leave out of anything you do though.
#9 Hard to Catch I just can't have him on the wet track he wanted this bone dry
#10 Shinzig he has never shown his best in Australia can't see this being the day he does
#11 Reigning to Win quality horse trained by one of the best in the business but since his 1st win here over 1400m I thought he had raced very flat to be honest even in the win at doomben it wasn't impressive, I really feel this guy would have to lift to be winning this.
#12 Benedetti I have heard a few people spruiking this guy but his melbourne form is nothing to go ga ga over and sure he won in Dubai but what sort of quality was it anyway I'd be happy to leave him out personally especially 1st up.
#13 Daunting Lad No hope I feel
#14 The Jackal he is the one I see putting a little pressure on Gold Edition he pulls so hard everytime he races interesting that Patillo is riding it today I can't have him though you can't do the amount of things wrong this guy does and get away with it in these races.
#15 Mr Ubiquitous he was a chance in therain stuck around and he could still run a nice race but can't see him troubling them to much.
#17 Smart and Mighty can't have him either was beaten pointlessly last week no hope IMO.
#18 Magic Marvo backed him for a place in last years stradbroke this year it wouldn't shock me if he ran last needed to have a few more runs under his belt I thought.
#19 Nova Star she is in the best form of her career she has never been consistent but she has been this prep really hitting the line hard back in brissie she is a blowout chance in this on her last win even though no horse has never won that double.
#20 Sniper's Bullet I have thought since his 1st up run this bloke is a major chance in this with the weight he has he meets his other 3yo counterparts so much better and although it can be argued he hasn't got the credentials the others do he hasn't been far off them with bad luck in some of the good 3yo races in the sydney, he has been set for this race all along and is going to be tough to hold out.
#21 Snort he is a horse i liked a bit as a youngster but he is a frustrating horse always seems to be able to find trouble and for that reason I stopped even looking at the horse, he is a rough chance in this but I think he would need all the favors to get there.
Sniper's Bullet I am already on and happy with that after that I am looking at the likes of Royal Ida, Nova Star, Stormhill all pretty much equal for me and will probably have a trifecta with those 4 and maybe a couple of others hard race and good luck to everyone in it
Race 7: This is a tough derby to work out but I will look for value and the 3 I am looking at are Resolution, King of the Nile & Volcanic Star they all look good odds and seem decent e/w bets depends on how I am travelling at this point as to who I back. right now I am thinking that I will have something e/w on King of the Nile and Resolution but if going well enough will probably have a stab at Volcanic Star aswell as I thought his last run was full of meritt and he should have won.
Race 8: there are 2 I like here Hasta La Ciao Ciao and Stylish Qualo the 1st I think could end up near fav and the other is a roughie that could rattle over the top of them if they went crazy up front although it is up in class a bit here. Hasta La Ciao Ciao I was hoping to get around the $6-$7 range but I can't see that happening as everyone has been tipping the horse $5 would be my limit outside of that will probably have a stab e/w at Stylish Qualo.
Good luck for the day guys to hard for me to give a best or anything right now might come back later on and do it.
Race 1: I have a couple I don't mind here High Academy probably slightly ahead of Bohemian Dancer and Skyleda and my old man has been telling me not to leave out Abu Simbel so for that fact I will include in my thoughts. they all have a bit of wet track form. This first race is going to be a bit of a guessing game I will look for a bit of value would probably want to get double figures on any of my selections although I might be willing to go shorter for High Academy maybe around $8.
Race 2: I like one of my favs here Roman Squire his last run was very nice a real powerful win I think Pengelly got this horse to improve by a few lengths really hit the line with a bit in hand, The danger to Roman Squire might be Wings of Seraph has some wet track form and i really liked the way it got home in a fairly run race last start. Roman Squire is my bet here I would like to get as close to $5 as I can probably don't really want to go any lower than $3.50 might have a little e/w on Wings of Seraph if it is up around the $20 mark.
Race 3: Not interested here to be honest smallish field lacking anything that i really like the fav loooks hard to beat but Mohawk has a little bit of ability if he got out over $25 i might be tempted to have a go here. doubtful betting race Mohawk the only one I would consider and he would have to be big odds.
Race 4: I have had a long hard look at this race and the one I keep coming back to is Primal Impulse the jockey does worry me a little but I will give her a chance, The other horse I would consider is Tenshi a horse over from a good stable in Adelaide form doesn't look to bad and this is not a strong race. Primal Impulse looks hard to beat but certainly isn't a certainty would entertain Tenshi at $10 or better.
Race 5: I amnot interested here at all as a betting prospect Falvalea might be a rough sort of hope agains the favs but not about to throw any money on it. No Bet
Race 6: terribly hard race I could give a chance to just about anything in the race,
#1 Xcellent has more ability than any of these but eighteen months off the seen with stemcell surgery is a big ask if at his best he could easily blow these away a repeat of his mudgway wins this IMO.
#2 Malcolm can't be treated as a chance on his last run it was awful and if anything he went backwards in the straight no hope for mine.
#3 Mitanni his form is good but my query with him is maybe he is coming to the end of his tether he has had a long capaign I am just thinking that he may have already produced his best.
#4 Gee I Jane I had been told was flying in NZ and was supposed to really give this race an almighty shake but she has not fired a shot here although I have heard excuses and maybe they are warranted and although she wouldn't surprise me I couldn't have her.
#5 Black Ink he is a place chance in this he just can't finish off 1400m properly IMO a place I would nearly expect however a win would really shock me.
#6 Gold Edition all the talk this morning it almost sounds like they are going to hand this race to this horse or atleast try to I just hope this is not a trot and canter if she wins then good on her but atleast do it on her meritts not have the race handed to her, I do still feel she is a query at 1400m but she might not have to run 1400m and if that is the case she might prove hard to run past.
#7 Royal he is a good honest horse always puts in and doesn't go to badly on wet tracks his 1st run here was pretty good when I didn't think he was asked to do to much and drops 5.5kgs on that effort he has raced well in good company before and will be hitting the line in this race.
#8 Stormhill thought this was a great run 1st up in brissie interesting they are going 2nd up into this race he can sit up near the pace I feel he will sit 2nd or 3rd and try and peel off them as they straighten I think at some point in the straight he will hit the lead whether he can hang on to it I amnot sure he is a horse I wouldn't leave out of anything you do though.
#9 Hard to Catch I just can't have him on the wet track he wanted this bone dry
#10 Shinzig he has never shown his best in Australia can't see this being the day he does
#11 Reigning to Win quality horse trained by one of the best in the business but since his 1st win here over 1400m I thought he had raced very flat to be honest even in the win at doomben it wasn't impressive, I really feel this guy would have to lift to be winning this.
#12 Benedetti I have heard a few people spruiking this guy but his melbourne form is nothing to go ga ga over and sure he won in Dubai but what sort of quality was it anyway I'd be happy to leave him out personally especially 1st up.
#13 Daunting Lad No hope I feel
#14 The Jackal he is the one I see putting a little pressure on Gold Edition he pulls so hard everytime he races interesting that Patillo is riding it today I can't have him though you can't do the amount of things wrong this guy does and get away with it in these races.
#15 Mr Ubiquitous he was a chance in therain stuck around and he could still run a nice race but can't see him troubling them to much.
#17 Smart and Mighty can't have him either was beaten pointlessly last week no hope IMO.
#18 Magic Marvo backed him for a place in last years stradbroke this year it wouldn't shock me if he ran last needed to have a few more runs under his belt I thought.
#19 Nova Star she is in the best form of her career she has never been consistent but she has been this prep really hitting the line hard back in brissie she is a blowout chance in this on her last win even though no horse has never won that double.
#20 Sniper's Bullet I have thought since his 1st up run this bloke is a major chance in this with the weight he has he meets his other 3yo counterparts so much better and although it can be argued he hasn't got the credentials the others do he hasn't been far off them with bad luck in some of the good 3yo races in the sydney, he has been set for this race all along and is going to be tough to hold out.
#21 Snort he is a horse i liked a bit as a youngster but he is a frustrating horse always seems to be able to find trouble and for that reason I stopped even looking at the horse, he is a rough chance in this but I think he would need all the favors to get there.
Sniper's Bullet I am already on and happy with that after that I am looking at the likes of Royal Ida, Nova Star, Stormhill all pretty much equal for me and will probably have a trifecta with those 4 and maybe a couple of others hard race and good luck to everyone in it
Race 7: This is a tough derby to work out but I will look for value and the 3 I am looking at are Resolution, King of the Nile & Volcanic Star they all look good odds and seem decent e/w bets depends on how I am travelling at this point as to who I back. right now I am thinking that I will have something e/w on King of the Nile and Resolution but if going well enough will probably have a stab at Volcanic Star aswell as I thought his last run was full of meritt and he should have won.
Race 8: there are 2 I like here Hasta La Ciao Ciao and Stylish Qualo the 1st I think could end up near fav and the other is a roughie that could rattle over the top of them if they went crazy up front although it is up in class a bit here. Hasta La Ciao Ciao I was hoping to get around the $6-$7 range but I can't see that happening as everyone has been tipping the horse $5 would be my limit outside of that will probably have a stab e/w at Stylish Qualo.
Good luck for the day guys to hard for me to give a best or anything right now might come back later on and do it.