Lets see if an aggressive staking plan can make a profit

[crash]

!. Back only SP fav. on first 3 races at all tracks in any condt.
2. Bet 1 unit first bet.
3. If you strike a winner at any track end betting on that track.
4. If no winner first bet, add 50% to your next bet amount.
5. If no winner 2nd. bet, add 50% to 2nd bet amount for 3rd. bet.
6. If no winner is struck by 3rd. bet, end betting on that track.

Today's result, Tues. 10.07.07

Warwick Farm
I unit bet r1/1 JEWELLED GATE 2.40w
Profit 1.40 units

Townsville
1 unit bet for the win r1/3 WYOMING unp. Loss 1unit
1.5 units bet for the win r2/2 SPLENDOROUS 1.80w Return 2.70
Profit 0.20 units

Dubbo
I unit bet for the win on r1/7 AUDRINA [3rd] loss 1 unit.
1.5 units bet for the win on r2/14 TALULLA 3.20w
Profit 2.30 units

Warrnambool
R1 loss
R2/4 JUST THE PART 2.30 w
Profit 0.95 units

Total O/L 7.5 Return 10.95 Total profit: 3.45

[crash]

Slight mistake above with progressive stakes:
O/l 8.5 units
Return 10.95
Profit 2.45

Flat Stakes results would have been:

O/L 7 units
Return 10.60 units
Profit 3.60 units

[stugots]

wont work crash, but im guessing you already know that

[darkydog2002]

The very first one I ever used was from the old Turf Monthly days.

1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21

Didn,t work either.

darky.

[partypooper]

Crash, are you a Gemini by any chance ? hee hee

[crash]

Aquarius Party :-))

Eagle Farm
r1/9 bet 1 unit, 3.60w
Canterbury
r1 bet 1unit, loss
r2 bet 1.5 units, 1.60w [2.40]
Sandown
r1 bet 1 unit, loss
r2 bet 1.5 units, loss
r3 bet 2.25 units, loss
Grafton
r1 bet 1 unit, loss
r2 bet 1.5units, loss
r3 bet 2.25 units, 2.60w [5.85]
Murray Bridge
r1 bet 1 unit, loss
r2 bet 1.5 units, 1.70w [2.55]
Belmont
r1 bet 1unit, 1.60w

Total outlay 15.5 units, Return 12.4 units, Loss 3.1 units

Flat Stakes:
Total Outlay 12, Return 11.1, Loss 0.9 units

2 day total;
Progressive Loss 0.65 units
Flat stakes Profit 2.7 units

[partypooper]

Hi Crashy, guess you posted this thread hoping to stir some comments?? well, just so it might help some newcomers here goes!,
I know that you know that favs have 30% S/R rain or shine, 1st race 2nd race , 3rd race etc etc, regardless if the previous race was won by the fav etc etc, so the result will be 30% S/R and a loss on t/o of 8-10%, the same picture if you use pre-post fav instead.

Of course we can concentrate on trying to turn that into a profit, so using pre-post fav (always using the samer source, SMH, Tab-Form etc))

No.1 Bet at Top Fluctuation only, (an instant improvement)
No2. Bet only where the PPF is also clear 100 pointer (Unitab)

this might alter the bets to race 1, 5, & 8 for instance.

"Consider" also to restrict distance to 1400-1600 races.

Any other suggestions???

[crash]

I can see your [sound] point Party.

I chose the first 3 races because generally, I think more favorites get up in them than later races. It's well known that races where fav. are most likely to get up are run early to encourage punters to the track so fields are generally smaller etc. That sort of race programing goes way back and is probably a bit silly in today's age but it's still there like a lot of other silly things.

Not all races have a 30% fav. Strike rate. Cups, Listed and Group races as a good example. Ok the odds will be higher for fav. in those races but not high enough to even things out and the fav. SR in those races [and some others] is nowhere near 30%.

Naturally if betting on this method, top fluc. etc. would be the way to go but for comparison purposes rather than best price, I'm just using UNI tab. prices. A small loss over 12mths. could obviously probably be turned into a small profit by chasing best price but the comparison between progression and flat stakes betting is the point here and regardless whether eventual profit or loss [or indeed the type of progression], the flat stakes punter will, either win more or lose less than the progression punter.

Altering the progression type, will only alter the margin of profit or loss difference long term, but never put the progression punter in a better off position than the flat stakes punter.

[crash]

Thurs. 12.07.07
Ipswich
r1/2 Alleviation 5.50w
Grafton
r1/ Kanter Brau 4.10w
Ballarat [heavy]
r1, loss
r2, loss, bet 1.5 units
r3, loss, bet 2.25 units
Northam
r1, Teaken 2.50w

O/L 6.75 Return 12.10 Profit 5.35
Flat Stakes:
O/L 6 Return 12.10 Profit 6.10

3 day total:
Progressive Profit 4.70 units
Flat stakes Profit 8.80 units
------------------------------------------

All SP favorites are at 3 min. to offical jump time as time must be allowed to bet. The actual SP fav. might change after that time or indeed just after the jump. Uni tab. supply the 3min. to jump time prices.
As a system, ruling out Heavy tracks would probably improve things as would seeking Top Fluc. as Party mentioned.

[crash]

Fri 13 July
ROCKHAMPTON (QR) [good]
r1 loss
r2 bet 1.5units, King Kanawa 2.60w [3.90]
BATHURST (NR) [heavy]
r1, Premium Larger 2.60w
WANGARATTA (VR) [heavy]
r1 loss
r2 bet 1.5 units, loss
r3 bet 2.25, Perfect Penny 4.10w [9.20]
CANBERRA (CR)
r1, Great Master 5.40w

Progression: O/L 9.25 R 21.10 Profit 11.85 [Friday the 13th, a great day for the progression!]
Flat Stakes: O/L 7 R 14.70 Profit 7.70

4th. day totals:
Progression: Profit 16.55
Flat Stakes: Profit 16.50

The 3min to jump fav. seems to be doing a lot better than the actual SP fav. So much for 'following the smart money' myth [?] :-))

Cheers.

[partypooper]

You're doing well there Crash, it's always good when the plan starts off in profit. Do you have the bets listed in away that you can compare P.O.T.?
Are you actually betting or just a dry run?

[crash]

Hi Party

Sadly, I haven't been actually betting the system [Geez, I would have liked to today], but I might start throwing a few dollars at it from Monday as it's a lot of bets tomorrow.

I'm confident that it might be a good little system. If it is, a lot of punters will jump on-board and then it will hit a run of outs [as these things always do] and they will all jump off and forget about it :-))

4 day running total:
Progression: T/ol 40 T/R 56.55 T/P 16.55
Flat Stakes: T/ol 32 T/R 48.5 T/P 16.50

[crash]

For those interested in what the results would have been last Saturday:

Last Sat. 7 July

EAGLE FARM (BR)
r1 MY MAN MURPHY 1.80w

ROSEHILL (SR)
r1 CANYONVILLE 3.10w

SANDOWN (MR)
r1 PIT LANE 3.70w

GOLD COAST (QR)
r1 SIR TELES 1.80w

KEMBLA GRANGE (NR)
r1, loss
r2, loss, bet 1.5
r3, loss, bet 2.25

GEELONG (VR)
r1 loss
r2 FASLIYEV DANCER, bet 1.5 1.60w [2.40]

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)
r1 HOKUSPOKUS 4.00w

BELMONT (PR)
r1 loss
r2 SO SECRET, bet 1.5 2.60w [4.00]

DARWIN (XR)
r1 loss
r2 SWEPSCAY, bet 1.5 2.60w [4.00]

TOOWOOMBA (ER)
r1 loss
r2 SECONDE, bet 1.5 4.30w [6.45]
-----------------------------------------------
O/L 21.25 R 29.45 P 8.20
Flat Stakes: O/L 16 R 25.5 P 9.50

[Not a long betting period, but I hope I'm getting my point across about flat stakes vesus Progressive staking]

I'm trying to help punters here to think outside the square. I want you to make a buck as I'm not reliant on keeping secrets, as I punt for pleasure [not profit but yes, I make a bit of that here and there] and couldn't give a damb about keeping anything I think might be profitable to myself. It might all fall over, but I'm into sharing anything I think might be profitable to the average punter.

I think I might also be getting my point across about just how many favorites get up in the first 3 races on a card. WAY above the 30% average overall!

Cheers.

[wesmip1]

I think I might also be getting my point across about just how many favorites get up in the first 3 races on a card. WAY above the 30% average overall!
This is correct but I think we need to make it clear a high strike rate doesn't make a good ROT.

All Favs: 32% SR with a 87% ROT.
Race 1: 37% SR with a 86% ROT
Race 2: 35% SR with a 87% ROT

Then lets look at a later race .. say race 6.

Race 6: 32% Strike Rate 89% ROT.

ROT is better for a slight drop in the Strike rate.

This was over 3632 meetings.

Good Luck.

[partypooper]

Crash, yes that's what I was getting at, when I said 30% S/R, I was talking about overall including everything , no filters etc etc. then when we start to scrutinize, sure some types of races, no of runners etc etc, may create a different S/R but the POT decreases accordingly, that's why I asked you have you recorded the results in such a way to COMPARE POT, not just points profit/loss?

I'm not having a go, looks like a decent way for the occasional punter to win a bit or at least lose less, I'm watching tomorrow!... almost as closely as I'm watching "PIKE"

[crash]

Party,

I realize what you are getting at and thanks for your stats info., as it gives me a comparison base for the stats of something a bit different from the stat. findings you supplied [thank you].
The Stats. you supplied would be based on SP favorites. However, this system is not based on SP favorites. The system here would have different stats. How different is as yet unknown.

I have noticed for some time how often the 3 min. to jump favorite gets up, after [often] rapidly drifting into a nice price when it doesn't start as SP [the money has been poured onto another horse by the smart money brigade, followed by the money from the legion of smart money followers]. 60% of the time the 3 min. fav. will start as fav. It's the winners from the other 40% that add an edge to your stat. figures and it would differ between say Uni Tab and Stab.

It's this above edge I have no measurements for, but I'm confident it might tum out to be a decent edge that hopefully will push this system into clear profit. It will be only after a period of time that the stats. for the 3 min. favorite stats. can be compared with the SP favorite stats. you have supplied.

Leave out Melb.today I think, due to hurdle races.

[crash]

I'll make Moonee Valley a r1 only bet win or lose, as r2 is a Hurdle.

[wesmip1]

Just found a very interesting stat ....

Why do favs win in early races .... Its becuase of the field size ...

Races 1- 4 have a larger proportion of smaller fields and therefore the strike rate of the fav increases in line with these proportions.

So really when you say more favs win in early races you are really saying more favs win in smaller fields which is just logical.

For example race 1 has three times more races with 7 or less runners than race 5.

Good Luck.

[darkydog2002]

And the prices are pitiful as well compared to the later races,In general though FAV backers should go home after race 4 .

Cheers.
darky.

[crash]

Wesmip,

Yes your right, but I'm well aware of that and I've already mentioned the smaller field sizes reason in an earlier post in this thread.

Oh and by the way, thanks for the stats. figures you supplied earlier that I accidentally attributed to Party. What figures are they from? Uni. Tab? Stab? or other?

Not all SP favorites are the same and their SR % and prices differ depending on source as shown within the first 2 races I bet on below.

I should also point out again that I'm not backing SP favorites [impossible], I'm backing 3 min to the jump favorites from UniTab Favorites, so your stats. just aren't relevant to what I'm doing [as I've already said in a previous post], but will be a great help for comparison in working out any edge above standard SP stats [if any and I believe there will be].

I'm betting them today [3 min to jump Unitab favorites] at $10 a pop for the win with Stab [better prices overall I think].

So Far:
MURTOA 01 at 10.56 AM SUPER VOBIS 3YO MDN PLT 1200M Jimoda 4.30w Stab [3.10 Unitab] Jimoda was 2nd fav. Stab and 1st fav Unitab at both 3min and the jump. Stab SP fav. was different from UniTab SP fav. too.

NEWCASTLE 01 at 11:00 AM RACING NSW FLOOD RELIEF MDN PLT 1850M Abra Ka Dabra 2.10w Stab [2.30 Unitab] 3 min. fav.and SP fav for both tabs.

Off to a good start anyway!

[crash]

And the prices are pitiful as well compared to the later races,In general though FAV backers should go home after race 4 .

Cheers.
darky.

Hi Darky,

I' not repeating my again. Read the thread!

[crash]

RANDWICK 01 at 11:55 AM EQUAL 2YO HCP 1400M Gergis 1.40w Stab [1.50 UniTab]
DOOMBEN 01 at 12:05 PM QR QLD REDS NO METRO WINS HCP 1615M 2.40w Stab [2.10 UniTab]

4 in a row so far.

[crash]

The good luck [above] never kept going.

Sat. 14 July

MURTOA r1 Jimoda 4.30w Stab [3.10 Unitab]
NEWCASTLE r1 Abra Ka Dabra 2.10w Stab [2.30 Unitab]
RANDWICK r1 Gergis 1.40w Stab [1.50 UniTab]
DOOMBEN r1 Rags to Riches 2.40w Stab [2.10 UniTab]
MOONEE VALLEY r1 Valentinos Dancer 2nd. Loss
GOLD COAST r1 Cantley Lane Loss
GOLD COAST r2, bet 1.5 Hail Free 2w
MORPHETTVILLE r1 Maid of the mist Loss
MORPHETTVILLE r2, bet 1.5 Uragano Loss
MORPHETTVILLE r3, bet 2.25 Grand Duels 2.40w sTAB [2.30 UniTab] 5.10
BELMONT r1 Danana Smoothie Loss
BELMONT r2 Centrum Loss, bet 1.5
BELMONT r3 Motivator 1.70w Stab [1.70 UniTab]
TOOWOOMBA r1 Condoleeza Loss
TOOWOOMBA r2, bet 1.5 Russeting 2.60w sTAB [1.90 UniTab] 3.2

[UniTab only] Progression: O/L 20.75 R 21 P 0.25
Flat Stakes: O/L 15 R 16.9 [sTab 18.9] P 1.9 [Stab 3.9]

A small profit but a profit none the less. Stab certainly pays better overall and could be improved upon by using Betfair or Top Fluc.

Cheers.

[crash]

I'm going to drop the progression betting from now on. I think I've proved my point regarding that [often] promoted absolute rubbish!

[crash]

Another win I had today [sort off] was one of the saddest wins I've [we, including Zoe my wife] ever had.

An Old lady we knew here in Paynesville went into an old peoples home yesterday [old age and Alzheimer's] and her daughter cleaned out her house [to sell it no doubt] into a big skip.

My wife, is a natural scrounger and 'elite' local skip dipper. We couldn't believe the stuff that was thrown out. Among many valuable nick knacks including a numbered limited edition bone handled Eureka stockade pocket knife worth heaps still in it's rosewood box [probably a gift], was a small plastic folder with $230 in it.

We were going to give the money to the daughter until we also found in the skip all this old ladies personal letters, photo's [framed photos of her long distant parents and even one of her wedding], sad little personal treasures and an unfinished manuscript for a new book [she was a published novelist] as well as her personal diaries from when she was a young girl. What [loving?] daughter who cares about her mother could ever throw these priceless family treasures out?

We were so flabbergasted by this 'throw out' of such personal treasures of the lady by her daughter, we decided to keep the money [all she cares about it seemed] as she obviously had no interest in her mother beyond what price she could get for the property.

Did we do the wrong thing?

Sad, sad, Oh such a sad day :-((

[AngryPixie]

Crash

I'm sure a charity that care's for Alzheimer's sufferers in your community would be very grateful of the cash donation and any proceeds they could get from the sale of the knife.

If the lady is a published novelist why not approach your local library to see whether they would be interested in the diary, manuscript and letters.

Karma is a funny thing ;)

[partypooper]

Angry, hear hear, I've seen a few cases of it but overall it seems to wait until "THEIR" next life!
A good (true) story, in the Uk I bought a 1930's bungalow literally falling down but in the Stockbroker belt of Yarm on Tees. Turns out the old lady that owned it was very ill aged in her 80's, her offspring had somehow obtained power of attourney to sell the place but the proceeds were to be held in trust until the old lady died.

I renovated the place beyond recognition over the next few years, the last I hear when I left the UK in 1987, was that the old dear was still alive and knocking 100, you ************ beauty!

[Chrome Prince]

Another win I had today [sort off] was one of the saddest wins I've [we, including Zoe my wife] ever had.

An Old lady we knew here in Paynesville went into an old peoples home yesterday [old age and Alzheimer's] and her daughter cleaned out her house [to sell it no doubt] into a big skip.

My wife, is a natural scrounger and 'elite' local skip dipper. We couldn't believe the stuff that was thrown out. Among many valuable nick knacks including a numbered limited edition bone handled Eureka stockade pocket knife worth heaps still in it's rosewood box [probably a gift], was a small plastic folder with $230 in it.

We were going to give the money to the daughter until we also found in the skip all this old ladies personal letters, photo's [framed photos of her long distant parents and even one of her wedding], sad little personal treasures and an unfinished manuscript for a new book [she was a published novelist] as well as her personal diaries from when she was a young girl. What [loving?] daughter who cares about her mother could ever throw these priceless family treasures out?

We were so flabbergasted by this 'throw out' of such personal treasures of the lady by her daughter, we decided to keep the money [all she cares about it seemed] as she obviously had no interest in her mother beyond what price she could get for the property.

Did we do the wrong thing?

Sad, sad, Oh such a sad day :-((

A very sad tale, a whole life of treasured memories amounts to nothing.

I'd suggest that the money could be donated anonymously to the home, or have a parcel delivered to her full of "comforts".
I've seen some families treat the elderly as a cash opportunity and all the love and care provided ignored.

It is sad, and very distasteful.

[crash]

Chrome/Party

After a bit more investigation we have found out the lady has work in the National trust of Vic. We are going to donate all her writings/photo's of this area from the 20's/30's to them [heaps of stuff] and the money we are going to spend on her [after Zoe pays her visit and see what see needs/wants]. The knife we will ebay and spend on her too.

My god I feel so sad about this whole business. Someone's life ending up in a garbage skip ...and by her daughter's hand!

[crash]

Crash

I'm sure a charity that care's for Alzheimer's sufferers in your community would be very grateful of the cash donation and any proceeds they could get from the sale of the knife.

If the lady is a published novelist why not approach your local library to see whether they would be interested in the diary, manuscript and letters.

Karma is a funny thing ;)


After a few inquiries we found out the Lady needs for nothing as she is quite well off financially, so we are taking your advice Angry Pixie about the knife proceeds, cash, and manuscript etc. and handing them on to the library, as the lady in question was very well known there. They could certainly use the money to buy a few more LARGE PRINT books as there is a lot of elderly people here [God's waiting room].

[crash]

Sun. 15th. July
GRAFTON
r1 MAXIMUM TALENT 2.70
MORNINGTON
r1 Loss
r2 Loss
r3 FEISTY ROSE 3.00
SUNSHINE COAST
r1 Loss
r2 EQUABLE 3.30
MUDGEE
r1 ARE YOU JOEKEN 1.80
CASTERTON
r1 FOXES FOLLY 1.50
PT AUGUSTA
r1 STYLISH ROGUE 2.60
r1 BELLE PARIS [equal 3min fav.]
KALGOORLIE
r1 LANDSCAPES 3.80
LAUNCESTON
r1 Loss
r2 FURET VISAGE 1.60

Flat stakes: O/L 13 R 14.6 Pr 1.6 [UniTab]

Running total:
Flat Stakes: T/ol 60 T/R 85.9 T/P 25.9 Not a bad week at the office.

I'm sure everyone's got the picture by now [?]
So lets let this sink out of sight off the page :-))

Cheers.

[Racer]

What [loving?] daughter who cares about her mother could ever throw these priceless family treasures out?

[all she cares about it seemed] as she obviously had no interest in her mother beyond what price she could get for the property.

Sad, sad, Oh such a sad day :-((
This type of mess appears to be on the rise Crash - In today's Qld.Sunday Mail on page 25 headlined with, 'Elderly robbed by own family'
- tells of middle-aged children whose parents own expensive property, getting POA, and selling the prop. before pocketing the proceeds.

Apparently $30 million in Qld. is KNOWN about each year but many other seniors were too ashamed to report family-related theft.
One woman's prop. was sold from under her via a relative's POA and pocketed - value $750,000.

A Seniors Legal and support service network has been set up to protect
asset-rich elders - Whoa ! that could be a bit of a worry, along with the other charmers on the list, Rellies, Churches, Lawyers, and now protectors.

What a pity the papers can't name these grubs who perpetrate such despicable acts - Oh I guess their civil liberties or whatever the hell
it's called can't be interfered with - what about the victims.

[crash]

I hear what your saying Racer and it's an indicative of how the 'me' society foisted upon us in the West, is [by association] making us all smell a bit 'grubby'.

My wife is Greek and no such thing as Greek nursing homes. My mother lived with us until she died when she could no longer look after herself. My wife insisted.

[odericko]

what about backing faves 1.50---to 1.80