!. Back only SP fav. on first 3 races at all tracks in any condt.
2. Bet 1 unit first bet.
3. If you strike a winner at any track end betting on that track.
4. If no winner first bet, add 50% to your next bet amount.
5. If no winner 2nd. bet, add 50% to 2nd bet amount for 3rd. bet.
6. If no winner is struck by 3rd. bet, end betting on that track.

Today's result, Tues. 10.07.07

Warwick Farm
I unit bet r1/1 JEWELLED GATE 2.40w
Profit 1.40 units

Townsville
1 unit bet for the win r1/3 WYOMING unp. Loss 1unit
1.5 units bet for the win r2/2 SPLENDOROUS 1.80w Return 2.70
Profit 0.20 units

Dubbo
I unit bet for the win on r1/7 AUDRINA [3rd] loss 1 unit.
1.5 units bet for the win on r2/14 TALULLA 3.20w
Profit 2.30 units

Warrnambool
R1 loss
R2/4 JUST THE PART 2.30 w
Profit 0.95 units

Total O/L 7.5 Return 10.95 Total profit: 3.45

Slight mistake above with progressive stakes:
O/l 8.5 units
Return 10.95
Profit 2.45

Flat Stakes results would have been:

O/L 7 units
Return 10.60 units
Profit 3.60 units

wont work crash, but im guessing you already know that

The very first one I ever used was from the old Turf Monthly days.

1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21

Didn,t work either.

darky.

Crash, are you a Gemini by any chance ? hee hee

Aquarius Party :-))

Eagle Farm
r1/9 bet 1 unit, 3.60w
Canterbury
r1 bet 1unit, loss
r2 bet 1.5 units, 1.60w [2.40]
Sandown
r1 bet 1 unit, loss
r2 bet 1.5 units, loss
r3 bet 2.25 units, loss
Grafton
r1 bet 1 unit, loss
r2 bet 1.5units, loss
r3 bet 2.25 units, 2.60w [5.85]
Murray Bridge
r1 bet 1 unit, loss
r2 bet 1.5 units, 1.70w [2.55]
Belmont
r1 bet 1unit, 1.60w

Total outlay 15.5 units, Return 12.4 units, Loss 3.1 units

Flat Stakes:
Total Outlay 12, Return 11.1, Loss 0.9 units

2 day total;
Progressive Loss 0.65 units
Flat stakes Profit 2.7 units

Hi Crashy, guess you posted this thread hoping to stir some comments?? well, just so it might help some newcomers here goes!,
I know that you know that favs have 30% S/R rain or shine, 1st race 2nd race , 3rd race etc etc, regardless if the previous race was won by the fav etc etc, so the result will be 30% S/R and a loss on t/o of 8-10%, the same picture if you use pre-post fav instead.

Of course we can concentrate on trying to turn that into a profit, so using pre-post fav (always using the samer source, SMH, Tab-Form etc))

No.1 Bet at Top Fluctuation only, (an instant improvement)
No2. Bet only where the PPF is also clear 100 pointer (Unitab)

this might alter the bets to race 1, 5, & 8 for instance.

"Consider" also to restrict distance to 1400-1600 races.

Any other suggestions???

I can see your [sound] point Party.

I chose the first 3 races because generally, I think more favorites get up in them than later races. It's well known that races where fav. are most likely to get up are run early to encourage punters to the track so fields are generally smaller etc. That sort of race programing goes way back and is probably a bit silly in today's age but it's still there like a lot of other silly things.

Not all races have a 30% fav. Strike rate. Cups, Listed and Group races as a good example. Ok the odds will be higher for fav. in those races but not high enough to even things out and the fav. SR in those races [and some others] is nowhere near 30%.

Naturally if betting on this method, top fluc. etc. would be the way to go but for comparison purposes rather than best price, I'm just using UNI tab. prices. A small loss over 12mths. could obviously probably be turned into a small profit by chasing best price but the comparison between progression and flat stakes betting is the point here and regardless whether eventual profit or loss [or indeed the type of progression], the flat stakes punter will, either win more or lose less than the progression punter.

Altering the progression type, will only alter the margin of profit or loss difference long term, but never put the progression punter in a better off position than the flat stakes punter.

Thurs. 12.07.07
Ipswich
r1/2 Alleviation 5.50w
Grafton
r1/ Kanter Brau 4.10w
Ballarat [heavy]
r1, loss
r2, loss, bet 1.5 units
r3, loss, bet 2.25 units
Northam
r1, Teaken 2.50w

O/L 6.75 Return 12.10 Profit 5.35
Flat Stakes:
O/L 6 Return 12.10 Profit 6.10

3 day total:
Progressive Profit 4.70 units
Flat stakes Profit 8.80 units
------------------------------------------

All SP favorites are at 3 min. to offical jump time as time must be allowed to bet. The actual SP fav. might change after that time or indeed just after the jump. Uni tab. supply the 3min. to jump time prices.
As a system, ruling out Heavy tracks would probably improve things as would seeking Top Fluc. as Party mentioned.

Fri 13 July
ROCKHAMPTON (QR) [good]
r1 loss
r2 bet 1.5units, King Kanawa 2.60w [3.90]
BATHURST (NR) [heavy]
r1, Premium Larger 2.60w
WANGARATTA (VR) [heavy]
r1 loss
r2 bet 1.5 units, loss
r3 bet 2.25, Perfect Penny 4.10w [9.20]
CANBERRA (CR)
r1, Great Master 5.40w

Progression: O/L 9.25 R 21.10 Profit 11.85 [Friday the 13th, a great day for the progression!]
Flat Stakes: O/L 7 R 14.70 Profit 7.70

4th. day totals:
Progression: Profit 16.55
Flat Stakes: Profit 16.50

The 3min to jump fav. seems to be doing a lot better than the actual SP fav. So much for 'following the smart money' myth [?] :-))

Cheers.