Quinella Staking

[Shaun]

I am looking for a staking plan for quinella betting each bet costs $7 per unit right now strike rate is 31% average divi is $21

[crash]

For every 10 bets your spending $70 to win $63.20 approx.

Sorry, but there is no staking plan to make a profit from a loss [bookies would go broke otherwise]. All a staking plan would do is increase your loses.

[Shaun]

It is early days and i don't have the data to say if the strike rate will be higher or lower or the average divi h/l.

But am still interested in ideas or should i just try flat stake and see what i get.

I have been looking at how many times No 1 runs first or second with the puppies you could collect over 30% of the quinellas with some nice results, i suppose i could convert this to units so every $7 is one unit saying the &21 would be three units, night nake it easier to play with the numbers.

Anyone able to test this out with a database for dogs.

[crash]

Personally I only use quin or Tri for certain races, to cobble a runner [or 2] at odds I think has a good chance of winning together with the fav. just in case.
If I think the fav. is seriously flawed [Tomorrow: Haradasun, Miss Finland, Marching and Weekend Hussler who is coming back 400m] I'll take advantage of the good win odds on others.

It up to you Shaun. Nothing wrong with a staking plan [% of bank or pocket ect.], as long as your not reaching for that worn out old chestnut 'progressive' staking. It will increase your winnings AND your loses because you have no way in knowing if your next bet is going to be a winner or loser.

You could use a very mild progression for interest, but you will just [eventualy] mildly increase your winning ....and losses.

It would be great to only increase our bets when we know they will be a winner:-)

[crash]

I meant Villian above, not Marching.

[lomaca]

I meant Villian above, not Marching.
Hi Crash!
It's not often, that I ask for a second opinion, but what do you think of the chances of Stockade?
I keep coming up with this horse in my ratings(handicapping).
Re. Villian do you like horses down in weights and good AVG prize money?

[crash]

Villian has a few problems here. The big one is going to be lack of pace and the 2nd one is the distance of 2500m. We have to remember we are talking 3yr. olds here. Villian's last win was run in very slow time [15 lengths off the track record on a firm track] so I'm not really impressed. Breedng is very dodgy for the distance and only on one side of the family.

Marching has the problem of maybe peeking last run and might struggle with the distance. Trainers don't get peek fitness for long from a 3 yr. old and the horse has done plenty this prep. Kibbutz got a poor barrier for a horse that hangs in [it's likely to get in trouble]. Needed b1,2,3. but is a main chance if lucky.

The Geelong form for Stokdale wasn't impressive for a Derby winner but my wife likes this one and is her pick and her form analysis is deadly, but different to mine [I don't understand it but she keeps finding winners at odds]. My pick is Lottorio, a massive horse of over 17 hands who will love this trip and course. Lightly raced and this is it's acid test. If it fails here with everything going for it, it's a gunna do. Great run last start.

If you like Stokdale stick with it. The wife has picked the last 3 Derby winners and the last 5 MC winners [mine was Rain Lover, a very long way back, but I also got the tri in 3]!

[lomaca]

but my wife likes this one and is her pick and her form analysis is deadly, but different to mine [I don't understand it but she keeps finding winners at odds].
I'm on a good thing then!
Mind you, Stockade isn't my first selection but more often then not I go for my second and third selection.
Good luck
Cheers

[crash]

Good luck to you too!

[crash]

5 of the last 8 Derby winners won their last start. Stockdale is the only horse that won it's last start.

[lomaca]

5 of the last 8 Derby winners won their last start. Stockdale is the only horse that won it's last start.
Well, last start finishing pos. is not in my repertoire so, I can honestly say it never entered my mind, but there are other things that indicate this horse has some chance. I may well be very very wrong, often had been!
Incidentally my rating goes the populist way:
Marching $3.5
Kibbutz $4.5
Stockade $5.0
but Stockade shows up consistently, no matter which way I look at the field.

[Bhagwan]

Try this staking plan for the quinellas & see if it makes a difference.

$7 = 1 unit.

1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 ect

We regress back 1 stage , every time we strike a result.
e.g. 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4w 3 3w 2 2w 1 ect.

Bank needed 420 units for a run of 40 outs

The expected run of outs at 31% is approx 18 in a row.

I would suggest one stop betting if one strikes 9 outs in a row & wait for a result to get up before recommencing.

Cheers.