Staking - Taking a loss making system and making a profit.

[wesmip1]

Wow this forum is dead these days. Someone should start a post on staking... so thats what I will do ...

If you use a so called "stupid" staking method of trying to win your stake back + $1 on favs how would you go ? Well I started this a while back and here are some results.

The only rules were back every fav and a bank was stopped after it made 100% profit or went bust.

Here are actual results:
Using 30 banks of $1000.
Bank busted 12 times so a loss of $12000
Bank made a profit of 100+%18 times so a return of $18,000 (actually more as we made over 100% with the final win most times).

Total profit = 30 - 12 + 18 = 36 = 6K profit.

Thats a nice profit especially on a so called losing system (backing all favs).
This is based on actual results over several months.

I am sure this will get some conversation going ...

Good Luck

[Chrome Prince]

Playing Devil's advocate here, so I might need some further information..

Which favourite, prepost, tab, bookie, betfair?
What prices, tab, bookie, top fluc, betfair?

I don't say it can't be done, because you did it, but I do query whether the next 1,000 might be Total profit = 6K loss.

However, you juggle the staking plan, eventually the average odds will catch up, be it 1,000 or 10,000 bets from now.

You could however take Banker's insurance a la Blackjack, and stop as soon as cumulative loss is greater than 50% of cumulative profit.

I.E. keep the ball rolling until things turn ugly and still walk away with the chocolates. You might get a very nice run for a while.
I have played blackjack this way and took home 15,000 from a starting bank of 200 at Crown (three orange tigers was nice), but then they barred me, they thought I was card counting :D
This was 8 years ago, and I haven't been back since.

[wesmip1]

Chrome,

Using Betfair odds 1 min from the jump.

I believe it works because favs almost make a level stakes profit using betfair ) before commission) so its only really making a slight loss after commission.

Good Luck.

[crash]

Wow this forum is dead these days. Someone should start a post on staking... so thats what I will do ...

If you use a so called "stupid" staking method of trying to win your stake back + $1 on favs how would you go ? Well I started this a while back and here are some results.



Good Luck

When there is no other conversation going, drag out the old loss chasing 'progressive' [ho ho] staking chestnut.

With a bit of luck wesmip1 and after lots of gobbly-gook, someone will try to sell you something :-)

[wesmip1]

Crash,

Just trying to get some conversation going but it doesn't even look like this topic can stir up a discussion.

Unfortunately management seemed to have killed the forum...

Oh well.... can't do much about it now.

Good Luck.

[crash]

Yeah, their terrified when we disagree so they jump in and spoil it, even though we used to always sort it out nicely in the end. Never a dull moment in the good old days:-)

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome,

Using Betfair odds 1 min from the jump.

I believe it works because favs almost make a level stakes profit using betfair ) before commission) so its only really making a slight loss after commission.

Good Luck.

Yes, I believe it works because of the Betfair involvement.
I think you'd really struggle on the TABS.

[crash]

If it's working on Betfair the system is not making a loss there long term, so it's not chasing losses. If it is, it will eventually lose there too.

[Truckie]

Quite some time ago, a reputable member stated he bet 1/2 % of his balance. While maybe not making a profit, it certainly takes a lot of bets to go broke. Others say 10%, but the strike rate would have to be very good. Personally I like 2%, increasing or decreasing at the end of the day, or after a prescribed win or loss amount

[King Cugat]

My spreadsheet updates after every race so on winning it allows me to bet more. On down runs it decreases my bets immediately. I think 'after every race' is the key. To not alter it until the end of the day means your either doing yourself out of decent money on a good day and of course.....alot to catch up if you realise at the end of the day its not been so good but youve been betting a higher stake then you should.

I think your right betting 2% win betting when your strike rate is lower. I kept a table next to my 5% place betting ages ago with a 10% bracket to see the difference. i found the 10% a bit too fickle.

Try this but alter the flat rate & profit rate until it fits as you like it (the 10% can be as much as 20%
>>> 2% flat rate + 10% of days profit added on top. Your staking more but the 'more' isnt extra out of your bank but a slice of what your already won. It makes winning days very lucrative. On losing days it makes no difference as 10% of $0 = $0 <<< so its just the usual 2% flat rate your betting anyway.
You can also drop the profit % right down as the day goes on to secure your winnings a bit tighter.

[Hay Chee]

wesmip1 how do you no the systerm looses u know if it has not one over 100 bets it might be a big winer on the next 100 bets. if it has not one over 1000 bets it might be a big winer on the next 1000 bets. Anyway NO need for systems if u use mind power visulisation and luky colors its a big winer last saturday i was on the lookout for horses with blue and white that got me leather at eagle Farm paid 80 dolars big bucks

[crash]

Quite some time ago, a reputable member stated he bet 1/2 % of his balance. While maybe not making a profit, it certainly takes a lot of bets to go broke. Others say 10%, but the strike rate would have to be very good. Personally I like 2%, increasing or decreasing at the end of the day, or after a prescribed win or loss amount

The theory of small % of bank is good [2% the most commonly recommended], but the problem is that most punters don't have a significant punting bank put away, especially in the current economic climate.

Most punters bet weekly using the % of pocket method.
If a punter can [typically] afford $100 to bet with on a Saturday, 2% is a $2 bet!

PS: It's been a long time Hay Chee. Yo must have just returned from a gambling funded world cruise I guess [?]

[King Cugat]

Cheese

You literary skills and your "mind power visulisation and luky colors " has given me the giggles.....Ive got you on my buddy's list with Benny for a get together for next year.

Funny ************

[crash]

Hay Chee's mind powers [and even literary skill] have gone a long way to put him where he is today ... a prince of punting!

[Chuck]

wesmip1 how do you no the systerm looses u know if it has not one over 100 bets it might be a big winer on the next 100 bets. if it has not one over 1000 bets it might be a big winer on the next 1000 bets. Anyway NO need for systems if u use mind power visulisation and luky colors its a big winer last saturday i was on the lookout for horses with blue and white that got me leather at eagle Farm paid 80 dolars big bucks

come on hay chee, lucky colours seems much too precise for your usualmethods :p

[Hay Chee]

2 morrow i will give u my lucky colors and numbers for saturday Its a lucky day 22 on saturday very lucky number 22

[lomaca]

Hi!
Here is somet to ponder about for those who think that the colours carried, matters.
While I think it's bunkum there is a bit of consistency behind it, once you find that the same colours were used, maybe more than 10 or more times for not even a place, or sometimes over a hundred times for no win, it may make you think.
I think it has more to do with the owners who choose the colours and trainers, and the horses they can afford.
Hence doing the form is the key in my opinion, but what the heck, if you can ignore some colours that's as good as not putting money on a loser.
I colour coded the file:
red: (or orange depending on your vision) never won or placed
green: win div. in the +
blue : place div. in the +
pink : never won (may have placed)
I may have missed a few, but it's for fun so it doesn't matter.
Incidentally I took the first part of the colours field, in the database before the first comma, like:
Colour = "Yellow and blue diagonal stripes", black cap (black cap ignored)
Good luck

[Hay Chee]

2 morrow i will give u my lucky colors and numbers for saturday Its a lucky day 22 on saturday very lucky number 22

Sorry guys I got distracterd been visulising over seas & didnt get round to posting how time flys 18 months wow anyway here are my luky numbers and colors for saterday green looks lucky 2 morrow also look for spots and pom poms luky numbers 1 and 4 luky jokees look 4 a d in the sirname thats all 4 now take care

[Chrome Prince]

Oh the return of the lost :D

Welcome back Hay Chee!

I still remember "Win win win"

[partypooper]

Crash, re your quip! remember there's more than one way to skin a rabbit when it comes to funding round the world trips!! right Chrome?

[Bhagwan]

Hi Wesmip, Thanks for sharing your findings.

With that staking plan , can you give an example of its workings.

Is it the due progressive plan.
This tries to make say $1.00 on every race win or lose.
say over 10 bets.
e.g. Next target is $100.00 lost + 1.00 target = New target 101.00 for this race divided by say 2.5/1 = Total O/L 40.40
Profit on 10th bet = Profit +10.00 if successful

Or

A recovery + initial $1.00 bet plan
This trys to recover lost amount then add $1.00 to the outlay.
e.g. $100.00 lost divided by horses odds say 2.5/1 = 40.00 + 1.00 =
= Total O/L 41.00
Profit +2.50 if successful.

Cheers.