Dutch Betting

[maverick1993]

Dutching is simply backing a few horses to profit a set amount.

But shouldnt you be taking advantage of overs in the market ?? When i first started dutching i kept it simple and backed the 2-5 horses i thought had the best chance and just backing them to win a set profit.

But a few times i might have had a horse rated at $3 ,,,it wins paying $10 and yes i've won set amount for the race but in reality misssed out on $7 worth of overs.

So now my dutch betting system is.
1. My top rater has to be paying overs to be a qualifying race.
2. I dutch using my own ratings.
3. If one of my chances is paying unders i then use the actual odds avaliable to win my set profit amount.

Eg, My Market for Doomben Race 7 on Saturday
Rash promise 3.20
Foolish 7.40
Secrets untold 9.40
Rebounded 10

My bets (profit $100) (this using awful tab figures)
Rash Promise....outlay $847....OVERS (paying $5) so win $1623
Foolish....outlay $616....win $100
Secrets Untold....outlay $532....win $100
Rebounded outlay $616....win $100

This is just an example as with a top rater so far ahead of the 2nd top rater i would bet outright on the top rater.

This goes against the principle of "only betting on horses you rate as value" but there wouldnt be many races or if any that i'd have my my top raters all paying juicy overs . Most if not all the time i think the market has it wrong.

Can anyone see any flaws in this ? or any comments or thoughts are welcome .

Cheers :)

[darkydog2002]

Of Course.

ONLY bet "overs" when Dutch betting.

Cheers.
darky.

[maverick1993]

Hi Darky,

so you think i should only dutch in races where all my top selections are overs ??
I'm just not so sure,,,say i've rated it as my 2nd selection its still rated as 2nd out of a field of 8 or more. So its obviously still a good bet and a good chance of returning my set profit..it just wouldnt make sense to back it at my odds if i'm not getting actual overs.

[michaelg]

Just out of interest, I use to know of a successful punter whe would rate only his top 3 selections.

He would then total the percentage of the three horses as per his prices, and if that total was more than the market total of the three horses then he would back all three.

For example, if his ratings had horse A at 35%, horse B at 15% and horse C at 10% then his total was 60%. If the bookies' market had horse A at 30%, horse B at 20% and horse C at 5% the total would be 55%. Even though horse B was 'unders" he would still back all three but would reduce the outlay on A and/or C and put the extra on B.


Edit - I forgot to explain that in the above example he would bet $60 assuming $100 was the amount he wanted to collect. But as he now expected to collect $105 because of the total "market over" of 5% he would juggle the $60 so that whichever horse won he still would have outlayed the total of $60 but would've collected $105.

[partypooper]

Maverick, they way I see it is that you are trying to "cross" two seperate methods.i.e.
(1) Betting ratings to prices, say using proven ratings either your own or someone elses coverted to prices, so you ONLY back the overs, the theory is OVER TIME you have to be in front, as you've only accepted a greater price than the horses true chance of winning.

(2) Dutch betting as you say is combining 2 or more selections to win or "take out" a certain amount, now as I've said to Dark b4, if you have say 4 selections to Dutch and you are only going to DUTCH the ones where you get overs/// HUH? it's back to the crystal ball, as how would you know what to bet and how much until AFTER the race?

Just my thoughts.

[crash]

Of Course.

ONLY bet "overs" when Dutch betting.

Cheers.
darky.

Knowing when a horse is REALLY overs or unders is the problem and that generally takes hindsight as we all know. 30/1 shots get up that should have been odds-on and odds-on favorites come last that should have been 100/1 :-)

Overs/unders? It all sounds good in theory, but in reality ...throw a dart! Was Testbury Jack overs or unders last Sat.? In theory he should have bolted in. Way unders in the results and hindsight for sure, but not before the race, only after and there are hundreds of results just like that every week. Unders/overs are always just a bit of a guess and guesses don't lead to riches.

[YoungBuck]

I guess you can't be right all the time of course, just as long as you are correct often enough to turn profit...

[crash]

You must be a good dart thrower.

[YoungBuck]

I don't actually dutch bet, just an observation...

[crash]

I sort of do sometimes bet more than one horse [only do it now and then]. I'll pick a horse and Zoe picks a horse with the same amount on each for the win. If a horse is over 20/1 the money goes on that horse for the place.

We never back favorites and the odds are almost always over $5. Gives us a good chance of hitting genuine overs, but we hit a lot of unders too. We backed the last 2 races at Moe yesterday and both Zoe's selections got up at $7.60 and $10 something. Definitely overs [a running double would have been nice]!

[darkydog2002]

Maverick 1993

No.I wouldnt disregard the particular race if your TOP selection were "unders" but I certainly Wouldn,t bet ANY "unders."
If you rated 5 horses and 3 were "overs" they would be ONLY the ones I would bet.

Cheers.
darky

[partypooper]

Now I'm with you Darky, but that must mean that sometimes you have placed your bets on say the 3 out of 5 that were showing overs (Dutching them) only to see the other two blow out as well??

[darkydog2002]

Hi Party.

In that scenario (and I bet FIXED with IAS) I can still recheck the apparent "unders "again at 2 minutes prior to the race to see whether they are now at an acceptable price.

Cheers.
darky.

[Bhagwan]

If there are two selections , say $1.80 & $16.00
Maybe use a 60/40 spread on these type of situations.

[Shaun]

I have been giving this a lot of thought lately and trying all sorts of things as i bet 2 selections a race.

At the moment i am betting an amount depending on what price the runners are.

<$5 3 units
$5-$10 2 units
>$10 1 units

But the more and more i look at it putting the same amount on each runner is the best option.

It is always a problem with favs paying a low divi, i guess you have 2 choices putting more on the fav or setting a minimum price.


The second option is what i am heading towards, setting a minimum price if the selection is below this then we just don't bet it.

Sure there are times when you will get the winner and the selection you bet on will lose but in the long run your average odds will be higher, $3.00 is a good minimum price i think and if you use betfair or a bookie you should not have to many of these.

[Bhagwan]

I feel the 60/40 split rather than 50/50 will answer most of your concerns where 2 horses are to be bet .
Because most of ones winners will come from the lower of the 2 priced horses.


You might like to try this approach.

Betting 3 horses a race.

To be used where at least one of the selections is $8.00+

Bet 2+1+1

In Price order.

It can work well.

I feel its an idea not to load short priced horses too much when multi-betting , use them more as a saver to cover some of the greater paying chances.

[crash]

A win bet with one or two savers. A good move ...as long as one of them wins. It can get very expensive when none of them get up though.

[darkydog2002]

A rare occurence on a days betting though.

Cheers.
darky

[Bhagwan]

Betting 5 horses a race.

Target first 5 in Pre-post market.

.Fav must be $3.00+ in the live market.

.One or more selections must be $12.00+

.Bet 2 units on the Fav & 1 unit on all the others.

.Total O/L 6 units

Some fun can be had with this in races with 12 & less runners any more & the SR can fall away.
It's SR is very high.
It has produced winners up to $30.00 which had terrible form.

Works best with Betfair, with some amazing results.

[Bhagwan]

Chasing the Overs.

Another approach is to multiply the top 5 pre-post selection's price x 1.4
e.g.
$7 PP x 1.40 = $9.80 This is the price we want to grab.


Now bet all that that you find within the 5 selections that qualify ,say 4 min out till jump using Betfair.

Grab the price as soon as you see it for half of your normal bet & place the other half of your bet at say 60 secs till jump.

That way, one wont beat ones self up so much if the price blows right out.

If the bet comes right in , still bet it with the other half of your bet.
It could mean that there is market confidence about the horse to produce a win & often does.

Betting 1% of bank.

Cheers.

[Mancunian]

Betting 5 horses a race.

Target first 5 in Pre-post market.

.Fav must be $3.00+ in the live market.

.One or more selections must be $12.00+

.Bet 2 units on the Fav & 1 unit on all the others.

.Total O/L 6 units

Had a look at this on Sat Metro meetings. couldn't get one in the top 5 over $12 pre-post and not on Betfair but followed the other rules.

Result was : 14 qualifying races
Outlay $84.00
Return $83.60 !!

(time for that old quote again - gee I'm glad I broke even - I could use the money !)

Another one on the brink of success ?

Cheers......Mancunian

[Bhagwan]

Not bad Mancunian, considering it was never designed to be used where value cant be had in a given market .

There is a reason for the $12.00 rule, ignor this rule & one will find that one will break even .
Which is not a bad thing , it's just not the objective of the exercise.

Try & keep in mind that it is just one day , not a polarization of what happens every day, if it did breaks even, every day, one would be able to use any progression on it, and make a fortune.

Problem is easily solved though, just use ones own judgment & delete one runner that is not going to win, out of the 5 & bingo , in profit.

Outlay of ...5 units a race over 4 horses a race x 14 race = 70 units.
Ret 83.60
+13.60 Prof
+19.4% POT


One should be laughing like a Hyena, just don't delete the wrong horse, easy.

Cheers.

[Mancunian]

One should be laughing like a Hyena, just don't delete the wrong horse, easy.

"Aye, there's the rub"

[Bhagwan]

Heres another approach for targeting races where the Fav is $2.40-2.90

Theres some real value to be had with this approach.

.Bet 2.50 units on the fav.
.Bet 1 unit on 3 others.

Total 5.50 units accross 4 horses a race.

Cheers.