Dutching is simply backing a few horses to profit a set amount.

But shouldnt you be taking advantage of overs in the market ?? When i first started dutching i kept it simple and backed the 2-5 horses i thought had the best chance and just backing them to win a set profit.

But a few times i might have had a horse rated at $3 ,,,it wins paying $10 and yes i've won set amount for the race but in reality misssed out on $7 worth of overs.

So now my dutch betting system is.
1. My top rater has to be paying overs to be a qualifying race.
2. I dutch using my own ratings.
3. If one of my chances is paying unders i then use the actual odds avaliable to win my set profit amount.

Eg, My Market for Doomben Race 7 on Saturday
Rash promise 3.20
Foolish 7.40
Secrets untold 9.40
Rebounded 10

My bets (profit $100) (this using awful tab figures)
Rash Promise....outlay $847....OVERS (paying $5) so win $1623
Foolish....outlay $616....win $100
Secrets Untold....outlay $532....win $100
Rebounded outlay $616....win $100

This is just an example as with a top rater so far ahead of the 2nd top rater i would bet outright on the top rater.

This goes against the principle of "only betting on horses you rate as value" but there wouldnt be many races or if any that i'd have my my top raters all paying juicy overs . Most if not all the time i think the market has it wrong.

Can anyone see any flaws in this ? or any comments or thoughts are welcome .

Cheers

Of Course.

ONLY bet "overs" when Dutch betting.

Cheers.
darky.

Hi Darky,

so you think i should only dutch in races where all my top selections are overs ??
I'm just not so sure,,,say i've rated it as my 2nd selection its still rated as 2nd out of a field of 8 or more. So its obviously still a good bet and a good chance of returning my set profit..it just wouldnt make sense to back it at my odds if i'm not getting actual overs.

Just out of interest, I use to know of a successful punter whe would rate only his top 3 selections.

He would then total the percentage of the three horses as per his prices, and if that total was more than the market total of the three horses then he would back all three.

For example, if his ratings had horse A at 35%, horse B at 15% and horse C at 10% then his total was 60%. If the bookies' market had horse A at 30%, horse B at 20% and horse C at 5% the total would be 55%. Even though horse B was 'unders" he would still back all three but would reduce the outlay on A and/or C and put the extra on B.


Edit - I forgot to explain that in the above example he would bet $60 assuming $100 was the amount he wanted to collect. But as he now expected to collect $105 because of the total "market over" of 5% he would juggle the $60 so that whichever horse won he still would have outlayed the total of $60 but would've collected $105.

Maverick, they way I see it is that you are trying to "cross" two seperate methods.i.e.
(1) Betting ratings to prices, say using proven ratings either your own or someone elses coverted to prices, so you ONLY back the overs, the theory is OVER TIME you have to be in front, as you've only accepted a greater price than the horses true chance of winning.

(2) Dutch betting as you say is combining 2 or more selections to win or "take out" a certain amount, now as I've said to Dark b4, if you have say 4 selections to Dutch and you are only going to DUTCH the ones where you get overs/// HUH? it's back to the crystal ball, as how would you know what to bet and how much until AFTER the race?

Just my thoughts.

Knowing when a horse is REALLY overs or unders is the problem and that generally takes hindsight as we all know. 30/1 shots get up that should have been odds-on and odds-on favorites come last that should have been 100/1 :-)

Overs/unders? It all sounds good in theory, but in reality ...throw a dart! Was Testbury Jack overs or unders last Sat.? In theory he should have bolted in. Way unders in the results and hindsight for sure, but not before the race, only after and there are hundreds of results just like that every week. Unders/overs are always just a bit of a guess and guesses don't lead to riches.

I guess you can't be right all the time of course, just as long as you are correct often enough to turn profit...

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All generalizations are dangerous.

You must be a good dart thrower.

I don't actually dutch bet, just an observation...

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All generalizations are dangerous.

I sort of do sometimes bet more than one horse [only do it now and then]. I'll pick a horse and Zoe picks a horse with the same amount on each for the win. If a horse is over 20/1 the money goes on that horse for the place.

We never back favorites and the odds are almost always over $5. Gives us a good chance of hitting genuine overs, but we hit a lot of unders too. We backed the last 2 races at Moe yesterday and both Zoe's selections got up at $7.60 and $10 something. Definitely overs [a running double would have been nice]!