Soccer

[kiwiz]

Denmark Superliga
Sonderjyske up against Hobro - Sonderjyske @$1.75

[kiwiz]

Switzerland Super League
Basel up against Luzern - Basel @$1.82

[kiwiz]

England Southern Premier League
Corby up against Biggleswade Town - Corby @$1.46
Corby 2:0

[kiwiz]

England Premier League
Manchester United up against Sunderland - Manchester United @$1.40
Manchester United 2:0

[kiwiz]

England League One
Bristol City up against Rochdale - Bristol City @$1.68
Bristol City 1:0

[kiwiz]

Venezuela Primera Division
Zamora up against Tucanes - Zamora @$1.45
Zamora 4:0

[jake]

a league winner..melbourne victory..$3.75..western sydney wanderers..$5.00

[kiwiz]

Australia A-League
Brisbane Roar up against Perth Glory - Brisbane Roar @$1.55

[kiwiz]

Australia W-League
Perth up against Canberra - Canberra @$1.70

[kiwiz]

Wales Premier League
Carmarthen Town up against Port Talbot - Carmarthen Town @$2.04

[kiwiz]

England Premier League
Arsenal up against Newcastle Utd - Arsenal @$1.30

[kiwiz]

England Premier League
Leicester up against Bournemouth - Leicester @$2.06

[kiwiz]

England Championship
Leeds up against Milton Keynes Dons - Leeds @$2.02

[kiwiz]

England League One
Burton up against Blackpool - Burton @$1.65

[kiwiz]

England League One
Walsall up against Rochdale - Walsall @$2.08

[kiwiz]

England Vanarama National League
Grimsby up against Guiseley - Grimsby @$1.30

[kiwiz]

England Vanarama National League
Cheltenham up against Kidderminster - Cheltenham @$1.30

[kiwiz]

England Vanarama National League
Dover Athletic up against Welling United - Dover Athletic @$1.50

[kiwiz]

England Vanarama National League
Woking up against Aldershot - Woking @$1.70

[kiwiz]

England Vanarama National League South
Dartford up against Chelmsford - Dartford @$1.95

[kiwiz]

Scotland Premiership
Celtic up against Partick - Celtic @$1.26

[kiwiz]

Scotland Championship
Dumbarton up against Rangers - Rangers @$1.25

[kiwiz]

Scotland Championship
Hibernian up against Raith - Hibernian @$1.36

[kiwiz]

Spain Primera Division
Espanyol up against Barcelona - Barcelona @$1.22

[kiwiz]

Qatar Premier League
Al Rayyan up against Al-Kharitiyath - Al Rayyan @$1.35

[kiwiz]

Scotland Championship
Alloa up against Falkirk - Falkirk @$1.50

[kiwiz]

Greece Super League
Iraklis up against Kalloni - Iraklis @$1.60

[kiwiz]

Spain Primera Division
Atletico Madrid up against Levante - Atletico Madrid @$1.25

[kiwiz]

Euro 2016

Germany 7/2
France 7/2
Spain 6/1
England 9/1
Belgium 12/1
Italy 18/1
Portugal 25/1
Croatia 33/1
Austria 40/1
Poland 66/1
Switzerland 70/1
Russia 80/1
Wales 80/1
Turkey 90/1
Sweden 100/1
Czech Republic 125/1
Iceland 125/1
Ukraine 125/1
Ireland 125/1
Slovakia 150/1
Romania 250/1
Hungary 400/1
Northern Ireland 500/1
Albania 500/1

[springjoker]

Thinking of switching to soccer betting now most of the leagues are about to kick off new seasons. My betting will be structured on under 3.5 goals scored per match. Checking back on head to head records of the last 10 games if more than one game scored over 3.5 goals that game will be struck off my punting list.

Found 11 games that meet my selection process. The last two weekends without putting the cash on l picked 13 out of 14 and 9 out of 10. Money is going on tomorrow. This time l'll give my system a couple of months and not lose faith. Big Bucks here we come!!! 11 game total odds $9.53

Will post the games after l put the bet on tomorrow. Website I've been using is soccer base head to head and soccer association.

Excited to see what becomes of my new system. About 50 games away from being a millionaire!!!

[springjoker]

English Premier League, French, German, Italian & Spanish.

G01 Stoke v Middlesbrough 10 games 9 under 3.5 one game over 3.5
G02 Hull v Leicester 10 games 9 under 3.5 one game over 3.5
G03 Everton v Tottenham 10 games 9 under 3.5 one game over 3.5
G04 Caen v Loriet 12 games 12 under 3.5
G05 Wolfsburg v Augsburg 10 games 10 under 3.5
G06 Lazio v Atalanta 23 games 23 under 3.5
G07 Inter v Chievo 10 games 9 under 3.5 one over 3.5
G08 Empoli v Sampdoria 16 games 16 under 3.5
G09 Genoa v Cagliari 10 games 10 under 3.5
G10 Osasuna v Malaga 10 games 9 under 3.5 one over 3.5
G11 Gijon v A Bilbao 10 games 9 under 3.5 one over 3.5

[Sands]

Current market, A-League

Melbourne City FC $5
Sydney FC $5.50
Perth Glory $7
Brisbane Roar $8
Melbourne Victory $8
Western Sydney Wanderers $9
Adelaide United $12
Wellington Phoenix $19
Central Coast Mariners $41
Newcastle Jets $41

[Sands]

Latest betting A-League winner

Sydney FC $2.10
Melbourne Victory $3.60
Melbourne City FC $12
Brisbane Roar $13
Perth Glory $17
Western Sydney Wanderers $26

66/1 or better for the rest

[Sands]

Current odds - World Cup - Main Market

Germany 5.50
Brazil 8.00
Spain 10.00
Argentina 11.00
France 12.00
Belgium 21.00
Italy 21.00
England 26.00
Portugal 31.00
Colombia 34.00
Chile 41.00
Russia 41.00
Uruguay 51.00
Netherlands 51.00
Mexico 81.00
Croatia 101.00
Switzerland 101.00
USA 126.00
Poland 201.00
Serbia 201.00
Ukraine 201.00
Japan 201.00
Denmark 201.00
Australia 701.00

[Sands]

Early market, A-League

Sydney FC $4
Melbourne Victory $5.50
Melbourne City FC $7.50
Perth Glory $9.50
Brisbane Roar $10
Western Sydney Wanderers $10
Adelaide United $13
Wellington Phoenix $26
Newcastle Jets $26
Central Coast Mariners $34

[Raystef5845]

Hi to all,

As I promised my rugby friends, I located my soccer predictions program and updated it. I coded and ran last season’s 380 EPL matches to create the EPL starting ratings for this season. I give promoted teams the average ratings of the relegated teams, to start the new season. I just finished and now have predictions for EPL week 4.

As I do for rugby, for each team, I calculate an offensive rating, a defensive rating and the team’s constancy. I also calculate the home advantage in points. For soccer, I calculate three probabilities: for a home win, draw and away win (home loss). By the end of the season, my average probabilities are within 1% of the actual fraction of home wins, draws and away wins. I calculate the fair decimal odds for all three possibilities. As with rugby, whenever bookmaker decimal odds are higher than my fair odds, you have an edge. I added a page to explain my soccer predictions. In the future, I will post new predictions a day or two after the last game is played. These are late since I just finished.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

[DCFC]

good one Ray

[grizzle]

don't normally dabble much in epl of late, might try more, cheers ray

[Raystef5845]

For about the first four weeks, ratings bounce around quite a bit. That’s due to the newly promoted teams, new players, new coaches and new strategies, plus some unusual early-season scores and upsets. By the end of week four, most ratings have settled.

An interesting case was that of West Ham versus Huddersfield in week four. West Ham had lost all of its first three matches while newly-promoted Huddersfield had been surprisingly unbeaten (two wins and a draw). Huddersfield was underdog with a high price, despite the odd start for both teams. Trading had to be suspended by TAB New Zealand on Huddersfield. When West Ham won 2-0 in week four, both teams’ ratings moved to a more centrist position.

Good luck with week 5,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I wish the EPL teams would tell us when all the teams except Man U and Man City want to take the week off and play for draws. My favorites won four of the five non-drawn matches. On the other hand, Chelsea, Liverpool and West Brom were heavy favorites but they settled for three 0-0 draws. There were also two 1-1 draws. Five draws is twice as many as usual. Excluding the two Manchester matches, only 11 goals were scored in eight matches. Let’s hope they all come to play in Week 6, so trying to predict winners and looking at odds is worth it. Meanwhile, Man U and Man City are tied at the top in every way possible.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Mike367]

This is the first I've seen of these predictions and they look impressive. though I'm not exactly sure how to "read"them.

[Raystef5845]

This is the first I've seen of these predictions and they look impressive. though I'm not exactly sure how to "read"them.

There is a page that follows my predictions that tells you how to read the predictions. As to using them, I give the fair decimal odds for a home win, draw and away win. If a bookmaker offers a higher payoff than I suggest is the fair (break-even) value, you could take that bet. I suggest staying away from decimal odds above 5, as you don't win that often (less than 20% of the time).

I also estimate goal difference and total goals. Goals scored are so variable, it's hard to make money on goals betting though. There are many options in soccer, like draw-no-bet but those are more sophisticated and can be evaluated using my odds.

Ray

[Mike367]

There is a page that follows my predictions that tells you how to read the predictions. As to using them, I give the fair decimal odds for a home win, draw and away win. If a bookmaker offers a higher payoff than I suggest is the fair (break-even) value, you could take that bet. I suggest staying away from decimal odds above 5, as you don't win that often (less than 20% of the time).

I also estimate goal difference and total goals. Goals scored are so variable, it's hard to make money on goals betting though. There are many options in soccer, like draw-no-bet but those are more sophisticated and can be evaluated using my odds.

Ray

Hi Ray,

Just fount the page you mention, I should have scrolled down further.

Thanks, I appreciate you taking the time for the above explanation.

Mike.

[Raystef5845]

Good, there were five draws in Week 5 and only one on week 6. That averages out about right. As we get closer to week 10, all the ratings due to odd early runs by weak teams and weak showings by strong teams are correcting, so that out matches are becoming more predictive. Bet conservatively for now.

Good luck with week 7,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

We had a good week 7, in that six of my seven favourites won matches that were not drawn.

Speaking of draws, there is a simple way to avoid losing money when your team draws, although you will earn less when your team wins. Here is how it works. Suppose the decimal odds for a draw is 4.0. If you put exactly ¼ of your bet on a draw and put the other ¾ of your bet on your team, then if the match is drawn, your get back ¼ of your bet times four, that is, you break even. If your team wins, you make money on the other ¾ of your bet. You only win ¾ of what you would have won if you had placed all of your bet on a win, but then you break even on a draw as a reward. Suppose the decimal odds for a draw is 3.0. If you put exactly 1/3 of your bet on a draw and put the other 2/3 of your bet on your team, then if the match is drawn, your get back 1/3 of your bet times three, that is, you break even. If your team wins, you make money on the other 2/3 of your bet. You only win 2/3 of what you would have won if you had placed all of your bet on a win, but then you break even on a draw as a reward. Of course, you lose your whole bet when the other team wins, but that was going to happen anyway.

Good luck with week 8.

Ray Stefani

[DCFC]

Thanks Ray 👍

[Raystef5845]

Last week was the perfect time to give you the trick to avoid losing money when your team draws. There were 5 draws in 10 matches. I found five value (favourable) bets last week. One was to bet on Watford with a payoff of 4.9, which paid handsomely. The other four values bets were for Brighton, Burnley, Man U, and Newcastle, all of whom drew. So, your five bets would have resulted in breaking even on four and winning on one.

On the pages after my predictions and the team ratings, you will now find an explanation of what the page of predictions means, about how my rating system works and the trick for breaking even when your team draws (as I wrote last week).

Good luck with week 9.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Every now and then the seemingly impossible happens. When I entered the 2-1 score by which Huddersfield had defeated Man U, I thought I saw smoke coming out of the computer. It recovered and finished the job, writing “Are you kidding me?”.

My favourite has won just 69% of the 68 non-drawn matches. I estimate that using my trick for breaking even on a draw, you would have a 10% profit on turnover for the last 4 weeks.

Good luck with week 10.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The ratings have settled down nicely, as have profits. Last week, my favourites won 7 of the 8 matches that weren’t drawn, bringing my season accuracy to 70% for my favourites winning non-drawn matches. For the last five weeks, profit on turnover has been 13%, using the betting scheme I gave you which guarantees breaking even for a match that is drawn. The details are at the end of my predictions pages.

Good luck with week 11.

Ray Stefani

[humdinger]

Thanks Ray. Nice work.

[Mark]

Thanks Ray, laid the unders, and those short favs that were close to your prices (to break even) for a nice 24% profit.

[Raystef5845]

I am glad to hear some clever success stories in a week when Bournemouth beat Newcastle at Newcastle and Burnley beat Southampton at Southampton. Let’s look forward to week 12, to be played over 18-20 November. Good luck to all!

Ray Stefani

[Mark]

Not so good this week.

[Raystef5845]

Not so good this week.
With one match unplayed for week 9, my favourites won 8 of the 9 matches that were not tied. What kinds of bets were you making? I am sorry that my predictions didn't work out for you.

[Raystef5845]

With one match unplayed for week 9, my favourites won 8 of the 9 matches that were not tied. What kinds of bets were you making? I am sorry that my predictions didn't work out for you.

Make that 7 of the 8 matches that were not tied.

[Mark]

Hi Ray, go for value from your prices.

Bourne v Hudd, B were top pick but under as was the draw. Loss.
******** V Tott, T top pick, laid A & draw. Loss.
Bright V Stoke, B top pick, draw was under, laid draw. Loss.
Burn v Swan, B top pick and overs, laid S & draw. Win.
Cryst v Ever, C top pick slightly under, laid and made draw worst way. Loss.
Leic v Man C, prices were almost exact to BF. No bet.
Liver v South, L top pick but unders, also laid S. Loss.
Man U v Newc, Again prices almost exact to BF. No bet.
Watf, W Ham, Wat top pick and value, laid draw & WH. Win
W Brom v Che, C top pick but under, also laid draw. Loss

6 losses & 2 wins for me.
Will get it back next week. ;)

[Raystef5845]

Week 12 went well. My favourites won 7 of the 8 matches that were not drawn. Good luck with "lucky" week 13.

[Raystef5845]

Hi Ray, go for value from your prices.

Bourne v Hudd, B were top pick but under as was the draw. Loss.
******** V Tott, T top pick, laid A & draw. Loss.
Bright V Stoke, B top pick, draw was under, laid draw. Loss.
Burn v Swan, B top pick and overs, laid S & draw. Win.
Cryst v Ever, C top pick slightly under, laid and made draw worst way. Loss.
Leic v Man C, prices were almost exact to BF. No bet.
Liver v South, L top pick but unders, also laid S. Loss.
Man U v Newc, Again prices almost exact to BF. No bet.
Watf, W Ham, Wat top pick and value, laid draw & WH. Win
W Brom v Che, C top pick but under, also laid draw. Loss

6 losses & 2 wins for me.
Will get it back next week. ;)
\
I look at betting a bit differently. First I look for value in the favourite, that is, seeing if the bookmaker odds exceed mine for the favourite. If not, I look for value in the underdog, seeing if the bookmaker odds exceed mine for the underdog. Otherwise, there would be no bet. If there is a small value bet, there would still be no bet, using 1/2 Kelly. The value bet can be split between the team and a draw to break even on draw.

Last week I only found 4 value bets. There was value in supporting Burnley and Watford, both of which cashed. There was value supporting Tottenham, but that was a loss. There was value supporting Brighton. If the bet was split on win and draw, that bet broke even. If the bet was only on a win, that bet was a loss. Using 1/2 Kelly to allocate the total bet, I calculated a profit either betting only to win or betting to win with a smaller bet to draw.

I am rooting for your comeback in week lucky 13!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I hadn't noticed that week 14 starts one day after week 13 ended. I hustled these predictions after yesterday's match. I am tired just thinking about playing games so close together, which probably explains why there were four draws where favourites were happy to take one point on a draw and rest for midweek matches.

Ray Stefani

[Mark]

\

Last week I only found 4 value bets. There was value in supporting Burnley and Watford, both of which cashed. There was value supporting Tottenham, but that was a loss. There was value supporting Brighton. If the bet was split on win and draw, that bet broke even. If the bet was only on a win, that bet was a loss. Using 1/2 Kelly to allocate the total bet, I calculated a profit either betting only to win or betting to win with a smaller bet to draw.

I am rooting for your comeback in week lucky 13!

Ray Stefani

You've lost me Ray. I had a good week and then a bad week and last week I stayed out. Based on your prices I found 17 "value" bets of which only 2 won. Value in Burnley? yes, but they lost. Slight value in Watford for a win. Value in Tottenham?? your price 1.49, best I saw was 1.30. Value in Brighton?, yes but they lost, not a draw.
Not having a go, you are generous and brave putting up your markets, but saying you 'cashed', or broke even on clearly losing bets is a bit disingenuous."

[Raystef5845]

You've lost me Ray. I had a good week and then a bad week and last week I stayed out. Based on your prices I found 17 "value" bets of which only 2 won. Value in Burnley? yes, but they lost. Slight value in Watford for a win. Value in Tottenham?? your price 1.49, best I saw was 1.30. Value in Brighton?, yes but they lost, not a draw.
Not having a go, you are generous and brave putting up your markets, but saying you 'cashed', or broke even on clearly losing bets is a bit disingenuous."

We are all friends here in the Ozmium forums. We exchange information and suggestions about sports in general and betting in particular in a friendly manner. I am happy to volunteer my time to give predictions and suggest betting techniques as I have been doing for 45 years in general and for more than 10 years with Ozmium. If you or any one has a question, I am most happy to answer. However, an accusation like “disingenuous” has no place here and I will not tolerate insult, if my predictions are to continue in soccer.

I am happy to explain how my betting methods created a profit for EPL week 12. I am attaching the Kelly betting methods which I have attached to my Super Rugby predictions each week. The first section explains the Kelly method. The second section gives an example for Super Rugby while the third section contains a table for EPL week 12. First, I suggest comparing my fair odds with a bookmaker. I use TAB New Zealand for internet access. Obviously, if anyone has different bookie odds, betting would be different. First look for a game where the bookmaker odds for either team to win is more than mine. If not, there is no bet. As in the first section attached, do not bet if the bookie odds to win is less than 1.5 or more than 4.3. Next use the first section to apply the Kelly method which is derived to provide maximum exponential return on bankroll. I use ½ Kelly to keep the sum reasonable for a weekly league betting. I suggest not betting if the fraction of bankroll is less than 1.5%. If there would be more than 10% of bankroll for one game, I suggest limiting to 10%. I suggest keeping the weekly bet at no more than 25% of bankroll.

I then provide a table for EPL week 12, using ½ Kelly against TAB New Zealand. There was a value bet of 15 total supporting Tottenham which was lost. There was a total bet of 51 supporting Brighton, which was returned due to a draw. The bets supporting Burley for 73 and Watford for 85 both won with 50 and 59 respectively being multiplied by 1.9 and 2.1, respectively for a return of 95 and 124 respectively. The total bet was 224 and the total won was 270, for a 20% profit.

I wish good luck to all of you.

Ray Stefani

[Mark]

Woah Ray settle down. There was no insult, I also said you were brave and generous, and meant it, but you chose not to mention that.

I too have been making a living from gambling/ trading for a long time, so understand betting markets.

The only results I questioned were Burnley & Brighton, which you have repeated as wins in your reply.

"There was a total bet of 51 supporting Brighton, which was returned due to a draw. The bets supporting Burley for 73 and Watford for 85 both won" ???

Watford agreed paid way overs, but Burnley...lost 0-1 to Arsenal, and Brighton also lost 0-1 to Man Utd.
You had Burnley top pick, you priced them at 2.57 fav, and fair enough I understand how you can break even, or even profit if they draw, but they didn't, they lost.

That was all, nothing more, nothing less.

I gave you kudos for great results a few weeks before and am in no way criticising you for an ordinary week, simply pointing out claimed wins that were just not correct.

[Mark]

I think we also may have got our weeks mixed up.

[Raystef5845]

Woah Ray settle down. There was no insult, I also said you were brave and generous, and meant it, but you chose not to mention that.

I too have been making a living from gambling/ trading for a long time, so understand betting markets.

The only results I questioned were Burnley & Brighton, which you have repeated as wins in your reply.

"There was a total bet of 51 supporting Brighton, which was returned due to a draw. The bets supporting Burley for 73 and Watford for 85 both won" ???

Watford agreed paid way overs, but Burnley...lost 0-1 to Arsenal, and Brighton also lost 0-1 to Man Utd.
You had Burnley top pick, you priced them at 2.57 fav, and fair enough I understand how you can break even, or even profit if they draw, but they didn't, they lost.

That was all, nothing more, nothing less.

I gave you kudos for great results a few weeks before and am in no way criticising you for an ordinary week, simply pointing out claimed wins that were just not correct.

You do have your weeks mixed up, as you note in a follow-up post. You had mentioned having a good week 11 (4-5 November) but a bad week 12 (18-20 November). You then listed your specific bets for week 12 and that you had 6 losses and 2 wins. I then gave a short summary of my take on week 12. You came back with the claim of "disingenuous". I gave you my specific betting table for week 12 when Burnley beat Swansea 2-0 (winning bet), Brighton drew with Stoke 2-2 (even bet) and Watford beat West Ham 2-0 (winning bet).

In you newest commentary, you mention week 13 (24-26 November) games about which you had said you sat out and about which I had made no comments. The scores for Burnley losing 0-1 to Arsenal and Brighton losing 0-1 to Man U are indeed for week 13. To go further, as I included in the attachment to my last response, I do not suggest a value bet for bookie odds greater than 4.30, so Burnley (5.30) and Brighton (16.00) were not value bets and therefore not loosing bets.

Let's move on.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Boy does time fly by: week 15 predictions are here.! It seems like it was just a few days ago when we were looking at the week 13 results and posting week 14 predictions. Actually, it was just a few days ago.

I am adding some more methodology for assigning bets. I had attached a section which explains what the predictions mean and a section explaining how to break even on a draw. I am adding a section about deciding which values bets to accept and deciding how to assign relative amounts to the various value bets using the Kelly method. Using those methods, week 14 came out quite well. There were five value bets. Bets supporting Burnley, Leicester and Everton were winners while bets supporting Brighton and West Brom broke even due to draws.

Good luck with week 15!

Ray Stefani

[sportsmad]

Hi Ray,
All your input has been very helpful for me
Big thanks for your time & effort

[Raystef5845]

Hi Ray,
All your input has been very helpful for me
Big thanks for your time & effort

I greatly appreciate your thoughtfulness.

Good luck!

[Raystef5845]

The betting trick which has you breaking even on a draw is really growing on me. For week 15, my favourites won all 7 matches that were not drawn. On one hand, the three drawn matches were value bets for Bournemouth, Watford and West Brom which normally would have been losses. On the other hand, you would have gotten your bet returned using the trick I gave you. There was one other value bet which was a winner thanks to Man U. All 9 values bets from weeks 13 And 14 resulted in either draws (breaking even) or wins.

I have attached all of my betting suggested methods to the predictions.

Good luck with week 16,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I should really write about “round 17” instead of “week 17”, because the EPL will be playing on 12-13 December (in the UK) and then play again this coming weekend after finishing their games on Sunday. There is no rest for soccer players or my computer.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

In just over a week, 30 games will have been played and predicted. Here is the next installment of 10.

Good luck with round 18.

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Thanks Ray,,Chur!

[Raystef5845]

You now have the 10 matches the EPL will play just before Christmas. Then, there are 10 more around Boxing Day, yet to come.

So, bottom-dweller Crystal Place, having been unable to score a single goal in 10 consecutive away matches somehow beat mid-table Leicester 3-0, at Leicester. They play away to West Ham next. Which Crystal Palace team will show up: the one that was scoreless in 10 away matches in a row or the one that beat Leicester there, 3-0. We will soon know.

Regardless of matches and bets, Merry Christmas to all of you and yours!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

In my last weekend send, I questioned how mid-table Leicester (with a large value bet) could possibly lose at home to a bottom table Crystal Palace team which had been scoreless in their last 10 away matches. The answer came on Tuesday. Leicester was obviously jogging through the Crystal Palace match to put priority on the quarter-final League cup match at home on Tuesday against top table Man City. Leicester took Man City to penalty kicks before losing. Then, on Saturday, Leicester entertained number two Man U, holding them to a 3-3 draw. The Crystal Place match was obviously of no interest to Leicester. That is what make the EPL so frustrating. Form (and logical betting) goes out the window when a team jogs through an EPL match to put priority on a trophy in the League Cup, FA Cup, Europa League and Champions League. I wish EPL teams would put a warning on games when they plan to lack any competitive interest whatsoever.

Also, 5 matches were drawn of 10 in round 19, indicating some fatigue and a resulting agreement to share the points.

In spite of that frustration, I wish you all a very Merry Christmas!

Ray

[Raystef5845]

Do you feel overworked once in a while? By 2 January, the EPL teams will have played 9 matches in about 38 days, about one match every 4 days. I am tired just thinking about it.

Happy New Year to all.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

In soccer as in life, Christmas is the time for giving, especially when so many soccer matches are clustered. Giving in the EPL means playing a nice friendly, non aggressive draw (maybe 0-0). We had 5 draws in 9 EPL matches, 4 draws being 0-0 and one being 1-1. Top table, top scoring Man U and Man City both played nice in 0-0 draws, where form meant nothing, as when teams give up league points to win cup matches during congested fixtures.

Happy New Year to all as we check out 11 more EPL matches.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I have to agree with Pep Guardiola that the congested fixtures from late November through the New Year are tough on all the players. They finally do get a break. The next matches are to be played 13-15 January.

Good luck with Round 23 and have a great 2018. (I hope I have written 2018 on all my cheques.)

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The teams finally got some rest. I got tired just tabulating how many matches they have played lately.

Good luck with round 24.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The teams are getting so time to recover efore the next round,, then they will play two matches close together. Last week, my favourites won 6 of the 7 games that were not drawn.

Good luck with week 25.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Last week I suggested that finally the EPL teams would have more than a week to recover before Round 25, with Round 26 following closely. I hadn’t noticed that there were FA Cup matches over the weekend just ended; so actually, the flurry of fixtures continued. Arsenal won a tough 2-1 FA Cup match over Chelsea during the weekend and then both teams tanked their midweek EPL matches. Swansea beat Arsenal 3-1 and Chelsea lost 0-3 to Bournemouth. Bournemouth supporters cashed 10.00 payoffs, which gives you an idea of how outlandish it was for Chelsea to lose at all, let alone by 3 goals.

The trick would be to find a way to guess when a team is going to tank EPL matches due to focusing on Cup matches, and then support the underdog. The word "guess" is the problem. If I had paid good money to watch a match when my team didn’t care, I would want my money back.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

This will show you what a crazy league the EPL is. I decided to evaluate what ought to be a stupid betting strategy: bet on a draw in every game. Since the bookies discount their fair odds by 7-10% to make a profit, making myopic bets like that ought lose 7-10%, or so I thought. I still had the bookie odds for 8 of the last 9 rounds. If you bet one unit bet on each of the 80 matches, the 27 draws returned 100.65 units for a 26% profit. Crazy!

I looked at all 78 value bets I calculated for rounds 6 through 26, because I still had bookie draw odds for the 78 matches. If you bet one unit on each of the 78 matches, the 30 draws returned 102.71 units for a 32% profit.
I think the reason there are more draws than the bookies expect is that both teams settle for a point every so often to rest, because they can’t play hard in all matches due to all those cup matches along with the 38 league matches. I’ll check that crazy scheme going forward.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The next EFL matches have a gap so they can play FA Cup and League cup matches, meaning that some teams won't care much about the EPL matches and some will. The trick is to know which care and which will hardly show up.

Cheers,

Ray

[johnniebum]

Hi Ray Hows things ..Are you doing super rugby tips again mate..you were great to follow last yr

[Raystef5845]

Hi Ray Hows things ..Are you doing super rugby tips again mate..you were great to follow last yr

Darn right. They are posted in the Rugby Union forum. Check them out. Thanks for saying hi!

[Raystef5845]

The last match of round 28 just ended. The next round starts 3 March.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The EPL matches seem to be much more predictable now that teams are mostly finished with cup competitions and must now focus on the EPL.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Placid Ark]

Current world cup rankings

1. Brazil
2. Germany
3. France
4. Spain
5. Belgium
6.Argentina
7. Croatia
8. Portugal
9. Uruguay
10. England
11. Colombia
12.Egypt
13. Mexico
14. Serbia
15. Poland
16. Switzerland
17. Nigeria
18. Denmark
19. Iceland
20. Senegal
21. Peru
22. Morocco
23. Costa Rica
24. Japan
25. Russia
26. Sweden
27. Iran
28. South Korea
29. Australia
30. Tunisia
31. Saudi Arabia
32. Panama

[Raystef5845]

Six of the attached matches predicted for Round 31 have been postponed due to various Cup Finals. Looking at my predictions, home matches by Burnley, Leicester, Man city, Swansea, Tottenham and West Ham are postponed. When the new dates are determined, I will predict those matches again.

Good luck,

Ray

[Raystef5845]

There is actually a Round 32: no games are postponed this time. The dates for making up six postponed games have not been set.

Good luck with a real round this time.

[Raystef5845]

The EPL played a round with no cup matches nearby so the teams really played to win. As a result, my favorites won 8 of the 9 matches that were not drawn and value bets wee cashed for West Ham and Burnley supporters.

Good luck with Round 33.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

We went from teams playing to win with 1 or 2 draws per week, back to having 5 draws this round. I located a value bet for Bournemouth that was drawn and a successful value bet for Burnley who won. Starting with Round 6, I found 91 value bets: 32 teams won, 32 drew and 27 lost. By using my betting suggestions to cover draws, 64 of 91 bets cashed, but the profit margin was low because we had to protect against draws, some of which were the result of mutual non-aggression pacts in the midst of crowded fixtures due to cup matches.

Good luck as we reach round 34

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

We have had a nice run of success. For Rounds 25 though 34, I identified 18 value bets. The team won 15, drew 2 and lost 1, so 17 of 18 bets cashed, following my suggestions for covering draws.

There is an oddity for Round 35. One of the postponed matches from Round 31 will be made up. Burnley will have to play twice. The postponed Burnley-Chesea match is being made up; but the scheduled Chelsea Huddersfield match now joins the postponed list.

Good luck with Round 35.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

In Round 35, all five of my favourites in non-drawn matches won. That leaves five matches that were drawn, including three where value bets were returned using my betting rules.

There are 36 matches left after round 36: two full rounds of 10 plus the six postponed matches.

Good luck with round 36.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

There is only one more round after this. There will be 16 games for the final round, 38, including 6 postponed matches.

In Round 36. my favourites won 6 of 8 non-drawn matches. The only value bet on Burnley resulted in a draw, so you should have gotten your money back using my betting suggestions.

Good luck with the penultimate round.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

We are about to have a closing flurry of matches. There will be 16 matches in 6 days. The last six in my prediction list are the previously-postponed matches which are played first. The first 10 matches in my printout are the actual Round 38 matches. Only a few matches are important. A few have a bearing on playing in the Champions League, the Europa League and in relegation, for a few teams. The rest just close out the season.

Good luck as we close out the EPL for this season.

Ray Stefani

[Geez]

Hi Ray, doing EPL again this season? Your input was a big help last season, much appreciated

[Geez]

Wolverhampton Wanderers, Cardiff City & Fulham in, West Bromwich Albion, Swansea City & Stoke City out
Sky Blues in the red to do it again, according to bookies
Like The Reds & Spurs myself

[sportsmad]

Hi Ray, doing EPL again this season? Your input was a big help last season, much appreciated
Ditto

[Fatcat]

Ditto Ray. Look forward to your predictions

[Raystef5845]

Ditto

I'm glad I could help. Thanks for the encouragement. Of course we had a lot of games when teams prioritized Cup over League, but I appreciate the kind words.

Sure, let's have another go. I will probably take one or two weeks to get the ratings to update for the new season, due to new players, managers and strategies. It is always a good idea to be very conservative for the first four weeks.

I'll let you know when the new ratings are ready.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Thanks for your encouragement to have another go at the EPL.

I just cranked up the system and gave it a taste of the EPL with week 1. I was surprised that for non-drawn matches, my favourites won 7 of 8.

It does take about 4 weeks for the ratings to adjust to the new season. Here is week 2 to check out.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

This early EPL season continues to be a pleasant surprise. My favourites have won 14 of the 17 matches not drawn (that's 80%), including an upset win by Bournemouth against the bookie favourite West Ham.

Here are my odds for Week 3.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[sportsmad]

Good one ray ;)

[Raystef5845]

Fun week. My favourites won all 7 matches that weren't drawn. For the season, that's 21 from 24, 88%. Let's keep that up.

Here come my Week 4 predictions and odds.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The next matches will be played 15-17 September.

So far so good. We have about a 10% profit on turnover. My favourites have won 84% of the matches that were not drawn. The betting trick I suggest to break even on a draw has been helpful. Eight matches have been drawn so far.

Good luck with week 5.

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

Good work Ray, thanks

[jake]

The betting trick I suggest to break even on a draw has been helpful.
..very helpful ray

[Raystef5845]

Previously overachieving Watford ran into previously underachieving Man U. Man U's win moved their ratings more towards where we would expect.

Here is the oddity so far. After 50 matches, the home teams have won 21, drawn 9 and lost 20, which is not making the home ultras very happy.

Let's see what week 6 has in store for us.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Five of my six favourites won the matches that were not drawn during round 6. The upset was the interesting one. Bottom-table Burnley somehow found it in themselves to beat fourth-place Bournemouth, not by a goal, but by a score of 4-0. That is what makes sports fun (and maybe frustrating, but not boring).

Good luck with round 7.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

So far so good. My favourites have won 80% of the 54 matches that were not drawn. We had two good value bets last week for West Ham and Burnley supporters.

Good luck as we reach round 8,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The results were a bit mixed last week. My favourites won only 5 of 8 matches not drawn. There were winning value bets supporting Brighton but not Leicester. Two others resulted in draws, so that meant breaking even with the betting trick I suggested.

The craziest result was when Bournemouth played away against Watford. Bookmakers set Bournemouth as a big underdog paying 6.60. Bournemouth didn't just squeeze out a one goal upset, they won 4-0. Maybe the Watford team bus was stuck at a pub and they had to play fans.

Good luck with Round 9.

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

Thanks Ray.

[Raystef5845]

I am a bit late with my EPL picks this week. I was away over the weekend.

So far, the home teams have had a surprisingly poor record: they have won only 38 matches while drawing 18 and losing 34. That’s not much of a home advantage. I can’t put my finger on any explanation. As we move along, I think the home teams will make their ultras (and betting supporters) much happier.

Last week was a good example. Bournemouth and Chelsea provided the best value bets whilst playing at home. Both drew, so that using the betting trick I mentioned meant that betting supporters broke even. Of course, that happens when your money stays in your pocket too, so let’s look to more exciting bets to come.

Cheers
,
Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I would pat my computer on the head if it had one. The computer's favourites won all 7 matches that weren't drawn. Value bets cashed for Brighton and Watford supporters. The other value bet was a break-even bet because Leicester drew.

Here are my predictions for Round 11. I will be away after Round 11 so my next send will be lucky Round 13.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

Doing well Ray, again thanks.

[Raystef5845]

I have returned just in time to give you my predictions for EPL Lucky Round 13. The matches will be played 24-26 November, to give us time to build up the luck.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I just returned from visiting relatives, so I am a bit late with Round 14. In Round 13, a nice value bet cashed for Newcastle supporters.

A lot of EPL soccer is about to be played. We will have 10 matches played over the upcoming weekend, 10 more at the subsequent midweek and another 10 on the then-following weekend. With congested fixtures, there is always the danger of teams saving players (becoming less effective) and/or playing for a draw. We'll soon know.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Thanks for your predictions Ray. Cheers

[Raystef5845]

There were no surprises in Round 14, as we started 30 matches in just over one week. Seven of my favourites won the 9 games that weren't drawn. Brighton supporters cashed a value bet. We haven't seen many draws lately either, which is great. Let's see how mid-week Round 15 plays out.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

If it seems like I just sent you predictions, that because I did. Here come another 10 matches. The number of draws went up to 3, which seems to happen with congested fixtures. My favourite did win 6 of the 7 matches that weren't drawn.

Good luck this weekend!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Cheers to all as you get ready fro Christmas. The onslaught of holiday soccer matches continues. Happily, the fraction of draws is just what it should be as well as the fractions of home wins and away wins. It may be that we don't have to be as defensive about draws as we had to be last season.

I thought I was looking at match results for a few years ago when I found that Chelsea had beaten Man City 2-0, right after I had seen a commentator on CNN World News give a convincing argument of why Man City would win 2-0. Apparently, Chelsea didn't watch the broadcast.

Good luck with Round 17, to be followed with more rounds soon. .

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

Manchester City warm favourites since the start of the season
Only danger Liverpool according to bookies
Can Liverpool do it Ray? What do you think. Spurs any chance?

[Raystef5845]

Manchester City warm favourites since the start of the season
Only danger Liverpool according to bookies
Can Liverpool do it Ray? What do you think. Spurs any chance?

Let's see how the contenders stand right now. We are almost through the first round robin which will be finished with round 19. We just finished round 17. Here are the goal differences and league points.

1. Man City (+38, 44 league points)
2. Liverpool (+30, 45 league points)
3. Chelsea (+21, 37 league points)
4. Tottenham (+15, 39 league points)
5. Arsenal (+14, 34 league points)

That is the same order as for my ratings. So, City is about 1/2 goal better than Liverpool (divide by 17) and 1 or more goals better then the other three. There is some separation between City and Liverpool with the other three and a huge separation after Arsenal.

It gets interesting when we look at the schedule among the five contenders in the second half of the season when each plays the other four. Get this: City is home all four times, Liverpool is home three times and the other three are each home only once. So, City and Liverpool got some separation in the first half of the season among the five even though City had to play the other four away all four times and Liverpool played away in three of four matches. The bottom three were each home three times.

With that really favourable home schedule, City and Liverpool ought to widen their gap. I don’t think that Tottenham (Chelsea or Arsenal) are likely to be tops. Liverpool is only 1/2 goal behind City but up one league point. I like City to win but Liverpool has a solid chance to go top. There can always be unexpected injuries and strategy changes. Klopp could pull it off; but, as I said, I like City.

[Raystef5845]

Round 17 was something of an early Christmas present. My favourites won 9 of the 10 matches, with no draws. We only had one draw in the last 20 matches so I think it’s no longer necessary to bet on both draws and wins to break even on draws. Just bet on wins. In round 17, value bets were cashed by West Ham, Newcastle and Liverpool supporters.

The only loss by my favourites was very interesting. Southampton has a new coach who installed a more physical, active and aggressive style of play. In his second game he scored a major upset over Arsenal in Round 17. We’ll have to see how Southampton does for the rest of the season.

Good luck with round 18. A lot of holiday soccer is about to be played. There will be 40 matches between now and January 3.

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Let's see how the contenders stand right now. We are almost through the first round robin which will be finished with round 19. We just finished round 17. Here are the goal differences and league points.

1. Man City (+38, 44 league points)
2. Liverpool (+30, 45 league points)
3. Chelsea (+21, 37 league points)
4. Tottenham (+15, 39 league points)
5. Arsenal (+14, 34 league points)

That is the same order as for my ratings. So, City is about 1/2 goal better than Liverpool (divide by 17) and 1 or more goals better then the other three. There is some separation between City and Liverpool with the other three and a huge separation after Arsenal.

It gets interesting when we look at the schedule among the five contenders in the second half of the season when each plays the other four. Get this: City is home all four times, Liverpool is home three times and the other three are each home only once. So, City and Liverpool got some separation in the first half of the season among the five even though City had to play the other four away all four times and Liverpool played away in three of four matches. The bottom three were each home three times.

With that really favourable home schedule, City and Liverpool ought to widen their gap. I don’t think that Tottenham (Chelsea or Arsenal) are likely to be tops. Liverpool is only 1/2 goal behind City but up one league point. I like City to win but Liverpool has a solid chance to go top. There can always be unexpected injuries and strategy changes. Klopp could pull it off; but, as I said, I like City.
Good stuff Ray
Liverpool one of my main bets start of the season
Extra bonus,,get my money back if they run 2nd behind City

[Sands]

Yes, big thanks Ray. Still room to work either City or Liverpool as all-ups with my pacing, chasing & racing longer-shots.

[Sands]

And Manchester United have announced the departure of coach Jose Mourinho after their worst start to a season since 1990-91

A new caretaker manager will be appointed until the end of the current season, while the club conducts a thorough recruitment process for a new, full-time manager, according to the official statement.

[Raystef5845]

Merry Christmas everyone. The boxing day matches start shortly. The spirit of giving was alive at Chelsea and Man City. Chelsea lost at home to Leicester which had decimal odds of 11 to win while Man City somehow found a way to lose at home to Crystal Palace that rewarded their supporters with a payoff of 21. I wonder how many takers there were, even at 21.

I think the teams are playing exhausted and have 3 more matches through January 3. Also, Southampton's rating lies a bit behind where it should be with a new coach and newfound success. It takes a few weeks to adjust.

Merry Christmas to all!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Several times last season, I mentioned startling outcomes that happened when teams played matches that did not involve a week’s rest. These are the “congested fixtures”. There are two types of those pesky fixtures. First, a team could have had the normal rest before a match but the next match is to be played in 3 or 4 days. Wanting to play smart, the players may pace themselves to avoid injury and fatigue, especially considering that many players on top teams also play for country and in cup matches. The second case is where players take the pitch following a match played just 3 or 4 days before. Then, the players are more fatigued than usual. Generally, anything that disrupts the pattern of play by a strong team can be expected to aid a weaker team.

I went back to my 2017-2018 predictions. I had calculated bets for 14 rounds with congested fixtures and 16 rounds with normal rest. I found that there was a profit in only 21% of the rounds with congested fixtures, compared to a profit in 62% of the rounds played with normal pacing. The odd results generally happened during congested fixtures. For the 19 rounds so far this season, I had time to apply my betting methods to 17. Of the five with congested fixtures, betting to win provided profit in 20% (almost the same as 21% for last season). For the 12 rounds played with normal pacing, using bets to win, there was a profit in 58% of the rounds (almost the same as 62% for last season).

Now, get this: last week during round 18, I had mentioned how odd it was for Man City to lose to Crystal Place, when Crystal Palace supporters cashed decimal odds of 21. In round 19, Man City lost for the third time this season, this time to Leicester. My point is that all three losses came during congested fixtures. With normal pacing, Man City were undefeated.

Because of the largely unpredictable results during congested fixtures, keeping your money in your pocket for those matches may be your best “bet”.

[Raystef5845]

Check out my comments about betting during congested fixtures. Rounds 20 and 21 both leave players with little rest and are congested fixtures. Later, rounds 24, 25, 27 and 28 will have congested fixtures.

Get ready for new years!

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Last season, I demonstrated the unpredictability of congested fixtures by pointing out that over several weeks of those fixtures, a bettor could make a profit by following the preposterous strategy of betting on a draw in every match. That led to suggesting a system to take the risk out of draws by splitting bets between draws and wins. This season, here is an equally preposterous strategy. There were so many unexpected upsets during the congested fixtures of rounds 18, 19 and 20, that a bet on every underdog would have made a profit of 220% (round 18), 40% (round 19) and 70% (round 20). Round 21 starts tomorrow. It seems that the best strategy for congested fixtures is to stay away from betting those rounds (which also means you do not have to split bets between draws and wins on normally-spaced fixtures).

I suppose you could tinker with some kind of contrarian strategy for congested fixtures.

Liverpool is now ahead of Man City in my rating systems. I think the rest of the season will be a battle between those two.

Happy New Year to all.

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Liverpool is now ahead of Man City in my rating systems. Happy New Year to all.
Ray Stefani
Go The Reds! Prosperous New Year to you Ray.

[Raystef5845]

I hope many of you had a chance to watch the Man City-Liverpool match. There are good games, great games and then a new adjective is needed for that match. Of course, there were enough amazing individual skills to fill your screen. Even more impressive were the team tactics. One team would find a way to get through the defense to shoot on goal, only to have seemingly unstoppable goals cleared away from the goal line: all of this after both teams had just finished three matches with little rest between. It was a master class in soccer gamesmanship. City and the Reds are tied on goal difference. Liverpool leads by 0.1 rating points. Should be a race to the finish

Only 4 of my favorites won the 7 matches that were not drawn. a typical scenario for congested fixtures. I suggested for round 21 that contrarian betting methods seem to work, as crazy as that is. If you bet one unit on each of my 10 underdogs for Round 21, you would have gotten back 4 on Leicester, 4 on Burnley and another 4.33 on Crystal Palace for a total of 12.33, giving you a 23% profit on turnover, making four straight weeks that crazy strategy returned a profit.

All teams have ample rest before the next round, so hopefully sanity will be restored.

Good luck with round 22.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

In Round 22, Burnley and Watford supporters went away happy.

The league table is about where it was before the recent glut of 40 matches. Tottenham leads on points. Man City has a lead on goal difference. The top two have opened a small lead ahead of the contenders. We should have an really close race to the wire!

Enjoy the fun.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Rounds 24 and 25 have congested fixtures. Round 24 will be at midweek followed by round 24 that weekend.

I noticed a big change this season. A 13-season average for the EPL showed 27% draws. Last season, with 27% draws after round 23, there had been 62 draws in 230 matches. This season we have only had 19% draws, a record low. After 230 matches there have only been 44 draws. That’s 18 less than last season, almost one less draw each week. Maybe the EPL told the teams not to go through the motions sometimes and play to win instead. Works for me.

Good luck with round 24.

Ray Stefani

[NitroPunter]

Hi Ray

Just found this thread and I am eager to learn more.

Using this current week as an example.

Bournemouth V Chelsea - game fails Rules 1 & 3

Arsenal V Cardiff - fails rules 3 & 4

Fulham V Brighton - Value Bet? with Brighton RB 3.5 > RF 1.76.
Working from a $1000 bank as an example - what bet would be made here?

Hudderfield V Everton - Everton RB $1.97 > Rf 1.79
Is this a qualifying bet?

Man U V Burnley - fails rule 3 & 4

Wolves V West Ham - West Ham RB 3.85 > Rf 3.01
Bet?

Liverpool V Leicester - 3 & 4

Newcastle V Man City - 3 & 4

Southhampton V Crystal P - Crystal P RB 3.30 > RF 2.64
Bet?

Tottenham V Watford - Tottenham RB1.72 > RF 1.55
Bet?

I hope that makes sense but I am just trying to show my interpretation.

[Raystef5845]

Hi Ray

Just found this thread and I am eager to learn more.

Using this current week as an example.

Bournemouth V Chelsea - game fails Rules 1 & 3

Arsenal V Cardiff - fails rules 3 & 4

Fulham V Brighton - Value Bet? with Brighton RB 3.5 > RF 1.76.
Working from a $1000 bank as an example - what bet would be made here?

Hudderfield V Everton - Everton RB $1.97 > Rf 1.79
Is this a qualifying bet?

Man U V Burnley - fails rule 3 & 4

Wolves V West Ham - West Ham RB 3.85 > Rf 3.01
Bet?

Liverpool V Leicester - 3 & 4

Newcastle V Man City - 3 & 4

Southhampton V Crystal P - Crystal P RB 3.30 > RF 2.64
Bet?

Tottenham V Watford - Tottenham RB1.72 > RF 1.55
Bet?

I hope that makes sense but I am just trying to show my interpretation.

Thanks for your interest.

First, you need to go back over this season and last season and read my commentary on congested fixtures. If a team had a week's rest then plays again in 1/2 week and when a team plays a weekend, mid week and another weekend, those are examples of congested fixtures when teams may chose to reserve players and/or energy. I suggest not betting any congested fixtures. Performances may be unexpectedly diverge for what we would expect. Please read my commentary. Round 24 will be followed by mid-week games, so fixtures are congested so I suggest not betting Round 24. Of course, if you have strong feelings about any games, that is your choice to make.

There would be value bets on the teams you mentioned were it not for congested fixtures. Please read my example to understand my suggestion not to bet more than 10% of bankroll on any one game and not more 25% of bankroll any one week. The numbers based on 1000 are just suggestions, of course.

Regarding Brighton, using the formulas I gave, the Kelly bet would be 1000 (3.5/1.76 - 1)/2.5/2. That would be 198 but I suggest not betting more than 100 (10% of the 1000 bankroll)

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[NitroPunter]

Thanks Ray

I had noted the congested fixtures but had not looked if this round was one yet.

I was more needing the clarification on staking and if my assumptions on what games would qualify were on the mark.

You have answered that for me now!

I will set off to read the past posts now and follow along before embarking on real cash til I’m confident I have the application down pat.

Thanks for your reply and the extensive answers.

Brian

[Sands]

I noticed a big change this season. A 13-season average for the EPL showed 27% draws. Last season, with 27% draws after round 23, there had been 62 draws in 230 matches. This season we have only had 19% draws, a record low. After 230 matches there have only been 44 draws. That’s 18 less than last season, almost one less draw each week. Maybe the EPL told the teams not to go through the motions sometimes and play to win instead. Works for me.
Ray Stefani
Yes, interesting stats Ray, thanks

[Raystef5845]

The dreaded monster of congested fixtures has reared its ugly head again. In earlier commentaries, I pointed out that all three of Man City’s previous losses had been during an accelerated schedule (congested fixtures). I also pointed out that during congested fixtures, the play on the field becomes so unpredictable that the crazy gambling scheme of betting on every underdog becomes profitable.

Sure enough, in Round 24, Man City lost for a fourth time during a congested fixture. If someone bet one unit on all 10 underdogs, they would have more than doubled their money winning 5.00 when Bournemouth beat Chelsea and another 16 when Newcastle beat Man City.

Liverpool have passed Man City in the computer ratings and have a nice five-point lead in the table. Tottenham did not drop points.

Let’s see what crazy things happen in a couple of days during Round 25. I do caution about betting seriously on congested fixtures.

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

Liverpool one of my main bets start of the season
Extra bonus,,get my money back if they run 2nd behind City
Looking promising kiwiz

[Raystef5845]

Warning again: Rounds 26-28 constitute congested fixtures. There has been a scheduling change: Everton and Man City will play 2 matches while the others play one.

The Round 25 crazies included Liverpool being held to a draw away to West Ham while Everton lost to Wolves at home.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Round 27 will only have 8 matches. The Everton-Man City match for that round has already been played. Man City will not be playing, so Liverpool will catch up in games played. The Chelsea-Brighton match has been postponed.

Round 22 will be played 22-24 February. Round 28 will follow a few days later in midweek.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

We are in the congested fixtures mode. After just-finished Round 27 at weekend, we have Round 28 at midweek followed by Round 29 at the weekend.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Round 28 just ended so here comes Round 29 for the weekend.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Cheers Ray

[kiwiz]

Still plenty of action to come
Last round Sunday 12 May

[kiwiz]

Some interesting stats EPL so far this season:

Ten managerial changes
Two of those replacement not finalised (caretaker)

[kiwiz]

Top goalscorer,,Sergio Agüero,,18 goals

[kiwiz]

Highest attendance,,81,332,,Spurs v Gunners,,2 March 2019

[Raystef5845]

On one hand, Round 29 showed every sign that we are out of the congested fixtures mischief. My favourites won all 8 matches that weren't drawn. On the other hand, Everton and Liverpool played to a 0-0 draw when Everton had given up as many goals as they scored and were playing Liverpool who was fighting to go top. A match to ponder.

From now on, the teams have have a week between games except for a few still after a trophy.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

My favourites won all 8 matches that weren't drawn.

Good work Ray

[kiwiz]

Some interesting stats EPL so far this season:

Biggest home win,,Manchester City 6–0 Chelsea
Biggest away win,,Cardiff City 0–5 Manchester City

[Raystef5845]

You can tell that we are back to normal rest between matches. Value bets were cashed by supporters of Arsenal, Bournemouth, Leicester and Newcastle.

I should call this posting Round 30.5 because five matches have been postponed.

Good luck on whatever you want to call this round.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Round 31 was a short one but profitable. Everton supporters cashed a 4.00 value bet while West Ham provided a smaller yet profitable value bet.

There will be scheduling oddities coming up in future weeks as six postponed matches have to be made up. Three more matches may be rescheduled too.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

There was an oddity during round 32: nine of the 10 games ended with a winning team score of 2-0 or 2-1.

Round 33 has a number of congested fixtures because the league is re-scheduling previously cancelled matches.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

Fulham to be relegated from the Premier League following a 4-1 defeat to Watford
They lasted just one season back in the Premier League after spending close to $185 million on signings pre-season

[Sands]

They join Huddersfield who were relegated from the Premier League following a 2-0 defeat to Crystal Palace
Huddersfield spent two seasons back in the Premier League

[Sands]

English FA Cup

Manchester City v Watford

Manchester City $1.37
Watford $10.00
Draw $5.35

Watford (+1.5) $1.95
Watford or Draw $3.50

[Raystef5845]

The EPL seems to have dramatically cut down on draws. Only 18% of matches have been drawn this year compared to 27% last year at this time. I think the postponing and later rescheduling of matches prior to various cup matches has avoided forcing teams to prioritize their energy output by settling for a draw. Round 35 will have 11 matches and round 36 will have 14 matches to make up the remaining five postponed matches.

Good luck with round 34.

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

English FA Cup

Manchester City v Watford

Manchester City $1.37
Watford $10.00
Draw $5.35

Watford (+1.5) $1.95
Watford or Draw $3.50
Eleventh appearance for Manchester City
Second appearance in the final for Watford

[Fatcat]

The EPL seems to have dramatically cut down on draws. Only 18% of matches have been drawn this year compared to 27% last year at this time. I think the postponing and later rescheduling of matches prior to various cup matches has avoided forcing teams to prioritize their energy output by settling for a draw. Round 35 will have 11 matches and round 36 will have 14 matches to make up the remaining five postponed matches.

Good luck with round 34.

Ray Stefani

Hi Ray

Do you mind posting rounds 35 & 36 please

Cheers
Fatcat

[Raystef5845]

Thanks to Fatcat for speaking up. I had uploaded Round 35 but something happened to the page.

Round 35 has 11 matches while 36 will have 14. Most of the teams will be playing without the normal one week before and after a match so most fixtures will be congested..

Good luck with Round 35. I will send out Round 36 next week.

Sorry for the confusion. I am not sure what happened to my original post.

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Top goalscorer,,Sergio Agüero,,18 goals
Mohamed Salah has joined Sergio at the top
Each with 19 goals

[kiwiz]

Some interesting stats EPL so far this season:

Ten managerial changes
Two of those replacement not finalised (caretaker)
Now just one replacement to finalise,,Fulham

[kiwiz]

Now just one replacement to finalise,,Fulham
Scott Parker is the current caretaker manager
Main other contender is said to be Steve Clarke who is the current manager of Scottish Premiership club Kilmarnock

[Raystef5845]

Round 35 was a perfect example of why I caution staying away from weeks with congested fixtures. The fraction of draws doubled. Of the 8 non-drawn matches, favourites only won 4.

Round 36 has 14 matches, starting tomorrow, so nearly every team will be involved in congested fixtures.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

Mohamed Salah has joined Sergio at the top
Each with 19 goals
A bunch not far behind those two

Here's the current market

Mohammed Salah $3
Sergio Aguero $3
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang $4.60
Sadio Mane $8.60
Raheem Sterling $17
Eden Hazard $61

Others $101 and over

[Raystef5845]

To return to a theme from last week, the last two rounds have been perfect examples of why you should stay away from rounds with congested fixtures. In Rounds 35 and 36 there were 8 draws, as many as the previous 9 weeks combined. The favourites won only 50% of the games not drawn, compared to 73% for the rest of the season.

Fortunately, the last two rounds have the normal pacing as we watch the titanic struggle between Man City and Liverpool. It’s City’s to win.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

Still plenty of action to come
Last round Sunday 12 May
Liverpool on top but have played an extra game
Liverpool one more game still to come versus Wolverhampton (7th)
Manchester City two more games still to come versus Leicester City (9th) & Brighton and Hove Albion (17th)

[Raystef5845]

It was great to have a week without congested fixtures. Instead of my favourites only winning half the non-drawn matches as in rounds 35 and 36, they won 7 of 8 in round 37. Value bets for Crystal Place and West Ham both cashed.

That rocket shot by Kompany gave Man City the win they needed to be able to grab the premiership with a win in round 38. If Kompany had been off target, the Premiership would have been Liverpool’s to win. All 10 matches kickoff at the same time for round 38. Should be an anxious time.

Good luck with our last EPL week and with the year to come.

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

It was great to have a week without congested fixtures. Instead of my favourites only winning half the non-drawn matches as in rounds 35 and 36, they won 7 of 8 in round 37. Value bets for Crystal Place and West Ham both cashed.
Ray Stefani
Good one Ray

[Sands]

That rocket shot by Kompany
That shot was a real pearler!

[Raystef5845]

An awesome season has ended. There was the clash of Titans: Man City and Liverpool fighting it out for the Premiership. Liverpool had the most points for a non- Premiership winner ever. Then we have an all-England (Liverpool-Tottenham) Champions League final and an all-England Europa League final (Chelsea-Arsenal). No nation has ever done that.

We learned to stay away from any congested fixtures, when there ins’t a full week before and after a round. By doing that, value bets made a 25% profit. The 14 weeks of congested fixtures would have resulted in a 9% loss of what seemed to be value bets; but teams were not playing up to their skill-levels.

It’s be a fun year. All the best to my soccer friends in the year to come.

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

A bunch not far behind those two

Here's the current market

Mohammed Salah $3
Sergio Aguero $3
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang $4.60
Sadio Mane $8.60
Raheem Sterling $17
Eden Hazard $61

Others $101 and over
Would you believe, triple dead-heat for top goalscorer
Mohammed Salah, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang & Sadio Mane
22 goals each

[Sands]

Cardiff City, Fulham & Huddersfield Town relegated to the EFL Championship

[Sands]

It’s be a fun year
Ray Stefani
They'll be using the video assistant referee for the first time next season Ray, that should add to the fun

[Sands]

All the best to my soccer friends in the year to come.
Ray Stefani
All the best to you too, Ray
Big thanks for your EPL input throughout the season
Hope to hear from you again 2019–20 Premier League
Fixtures set to be released on Thursday 13 June 2019

[Sands]

A-League Final on the weekend
Best odds that I can see (match normal time)
Perth Glory $2.39
Sydney FC $3.20
Draw $3.40

[Sands]

A-League Final on the weekend
Best odds that I can see (match normal time)
Perth Glory $2.39
Sydney FC $3.20
Draw $3.40

To Lift The Trophy
Perth Glory $1.80
Sydney FC $2.11

[kiwiz]

Eleventh appearance for Manchester City
Second appearance in the final for Watford
Manchester City 6–0 Watford
Manchester City the first English club to complete a domestic treble,,having earlier won the EFL Cup & the Premier League

[kiwiz]

Good stuff Ray
Liverpool one of my main bets start of the season
Extra bonus,,get my money back if they run 2nd behind City
Liverpool finished runners-up with 97 points,,the highest total in English top-flight history for a second-placed team
Maybe next season!

[kiwiz]

Some interesting stats EPL so far this season:

Top goalscorer,,Sergio Agüero,,18 goals

Yep Sands,,triple dead-heat
Mohammed Salah,,Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang & Sadio Mane
22 goals each
Sergio Agüero 21 goals

[kiwiz]

Some interesting stats EPL so far this season:

Highest attendance,,81,332,,Spurs v Gunners,,2 March 2019

No change

[kiwiz]

Some interesting stats EPL so far this season:

Biggest home win,,Manchester City 6–0 Chelsea
Biggest away win,,Cardiff City 0–5 Manchester City

No change

[kiwiz]

Some interesting stats EPL so far this season:

Ten managerial changes

Now just one replacement to finalise,,Fulham

Scott Parker

[kiwiz]

Some other stats 2018–19 EPL

Best goalkeeper Alisson Becker,,21 clean sheets

Highest scoring,,Everton 2–6 Tottenham Hotspur,,Crystal Palace 5–3 Bournemouth

Longest winning run,,Manchester City 14 matches
Longest unbeaten run,,Liverpool 20 matches

Longest winless run,,Huddersfield Town 14 matches
Longest losing run,,Fulham 9 matches

[kiwiz]

A-League Final on the weekend
Best odds that I can see (match normal time)
Perth Glory $2.39
Sydney FC $3.20
Draw $3.40
Best season for a while,,Wellington Phoenix FC
The Nix finished 6th,,beaten 3-1 by Melbourne Victory in the elimination-finals

[kiwiz]

2018–19 A-League
Top goalscorer,,Roy Krishna,,Wellington Phoenix,,18 goals

[kiwiz]

All the best to you too, Ray
Big thanks for your EPL input throughout the season
Hope to hear from you again 2019–20 Premier League
Fixtures set to be released on Thursday 13 June 2019
Ditto Ray

[kiwiz]

Liverpool finished runners-up with 97 points,,the highest total in English top-flight history for a second-placed team
Maybe next season!
And the Reds capped off a stellar season beating the Spurs 2-0 in the UEFA Champions League Final

[Fatcat]

An awesome season has ended. There was the clash of Titans: Man City and Liverpool fighting it out for the Premiership. Liverpool had the most points for a non- Premiership winner ever. Then we have an all-England (Liverpool-Tottenham) Champions League final and an all-England Europa League final (Chelsea-Arsenal). No nation has ever done that.

We learned to stay away from any congested fixtures, when there ins’t a full week before and after a round. By doing that, value bets made a 25% profit. The 14 weeks of congested fixtures would have resulted in a 9% loss of what seemed to be value bets; but teams were not playing up to their skill-levels.

It’s be a fun year. All the best to my soccer friends in the year to come.

Ray Stefani

Hi Ray

Hope you had a great break and ready for this coming season. Will you be providing us with your great predictions again this season? Sure hope so

[Sands]

A-League 2019/20 Winner

Perth Glory $5.00
Sydney FC $5.00
Melbourne Victory $6.00
Melbourne City $8.50
Western United $12.00
Western Sydney Wanderers $14.00
Adelaide United $15.00
Newcastle Jets $19.00
Brisbane Roar $21.00
Central Coast Mariners $41.00
Wellington Phoenix $67.00

[Raystef5845]

Hi Ray

Hope you had a great break and ready for this coming season. Will you be providing us with your great predictions again this season? Sure hope so

Thanks for the kind words. I'll send my Round 1 picks in a day or two. I start with the info from the end of last seaosn, so it's always good to be cautious for the first few weeks whilst the computer tries to make sense of the new season and the promoted teams. It blows it's fuse trying to make sense of the congested fixtures, but that's another story.

Good luck and hi to all my friends on Ozmium.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Hi to all my soccer friends.

The EPL season is about to start. I start with last year’s ratings for the returning teams. For the promoted teams, I use the averages for the relegated teams. It’s a good idea to bet cautiously at first while the ratings adjust for the new season.

If you are new to my predictions, you can read the explanation that follows the predictions. It’s especially important for your sanity, to read my caution about betting when there are congested fixtures. We have had several weeks with congested fixtures when it would have been profitable to bet on all the underdogs. The fact that such a crazy strategy would work is reason enough to stay away from those weeks

Good luck with our new season. Last year was amazing, with only EPL teams in the finals of the Champions League and Europa League.

Now, it’s nearly time to have a pint and watch the first match.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Liverpool finished runners-up with 97 points,,the highest total in English top-flight history for a second-placed team
Maybe next season!
Welcome back Ray
Got $4.35 for the reds early

[Sands]

Good luck and hi to all my friends on Ozmium.

Ray Stefani
Cheers Ray :)

[Sands]

EPL 2019/20 Winner

Man City $1.53
Liverpool $4
Tottenham $21
Man United $41
Chelsea $41
Arsenal $51

Others $151 & over

[kiwiz]

They'll be using the video assistant referee for the first time next season Ray, that should add to the fun
VAR in full swing already
49 checks in the opening seven EPL games

[jake]

A-League 2019/20 Winner

Perth Glory $5.00
Sydney FC $5.00
Melbourne Victory $6.00
Melbourne City $8.50
Western United $12.00
Western Sydney Wanderers $14.00
Adelaide United $15.00
Newcastle Jets $19.00
Brisbane Roar $21.00
Central Coast Mariners $41.00
Wellington Phoenix $67.00
..we've lost another player to overseas teams..shane lowry
..jason davidson & andy keogh already gone..matthew spiranovic future unsure

[Raystef5845]

In Round 1, my favourites won 6 of the 7 matches that weren’t drawn. On the other hand, there was a big surprise when Watford lost 0-3 at home to Brighton. Man U had a big win at home over Chelsea 4-0. Man City opened strong away beating West Ham away, 5-0. I mention those matches because my system makes the biggest adjustments early in the season to catch up with team changes. As a result, there were some big up and down adjustments because of the matches I just mentioned. It’s a good idea to be cautious for next two or three weeks to be sure the adjustments were justified.

The Rugby WC is coming. You can check the World Rugby rankings to get an idea what is in store. The higher rated teams have won 86% of the matches in the last 5 Rugby 15s World Cups. Not bad. You can use the same approach they do to convert rating difference into the probability of winning and get fair odds that way. I'll give you the equation as we get closer. The home advantage is worth 3 rating points (for Japan).

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The surprisingly one-sided wins of round 1 gave way to surprising ties in round 2. What does round 3 have in store? Time will tell.

The computer has been blowing its diodes trying to make sense out of this season. It told me that I have to be kidding that Chelsea in winless. I should check my results and rerun.

We certainly have to wait four rounds and maybe five before we can believe that the ups and downs are even close to averaging out so we have a good handle on who's who this season.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Hopefully they're not silicon diodes Ray

Pre-season EPL managerial changes

Brighton & Hove Albion out - Chris Hughton in - Graham Potter
Chelsea out - Maurizio Sarri in - Frank Lampard
Newcastle United out - Rafael Benítez in - Steve Bruce

[Raystef5845]

After the favourites won by unexpectedly large margins in round 1 and then drew unexpectedly in round 2, we should have known that they would lose unexpectedly in round 3. Put it this way, if you bet one unit on each of the 10 underdogs, you would have gotten back 31 units (a nice 210% profit), led by Newcastle paying 13.50, when it scored its first win of the season, away at Tottenham. Newcastle’s reward is 19th place.

We could talk about home advantage so far, but there is none. The home teams lost 7 games in round 3. The home and away teams have scored the same number of goals so far.

So, what about round 4? Maybe the craziness is over for now and the teams will play competitive soccer. Holding your breath for that might end in a trip to the hospital, but we can only hope.

Let’s see what round 4 has in store.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Fatcat]

Hi Ray

Question - in your word doc attached it references NFL. Are you going to be giving us your great insights and superb odds for the season starting next week?

Kiwiz added a comment recently in the NFL forum

Sure hope so

Cheers
Fatcat

[Raystef5845]

Hi Ray

Question - in your word doc attached it references NFL. Are you going to be giving us your great insights and superb odds for the season starting next week?

Kiwiz added a comment recently in the NFL forum

Sure hope so

Cheers
Fatcat

Hi Guys,

I last took on the NFL 10 years ago. It might be fun, but I would need a lot of time to run the last three seasons to get some starting ratings for a new season. The way I see it, my English Premier League and Super Rugby predictions already deal with enough sports sweating and bleeding (I mean for gamblers, the players sweat and bleed too, of course).

How about betting odds at the 2024 Olympics in Paris for break dancing. Now THAT would be a challenge.

Ray

[Raystef5845]

Hi to all,

I am cautiously optimistic that my ratings have made sense of the season so far. For week 4, my favourites won 5 of the 6 matches that weren’t drawn. The loss and four draws probably sharpened the accuracy of the season’s ratings for the rest. The “cautious” part is that after 40 matches, the home teams have won 15, drawn 12 and lost 13: that’s not much home advantage at all, which is far from normal. Let’s be a bit cautious about week 5. We’ll see if order has been restored to a disorderly season.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

For round 5, I suggested that we should be cautious and see if the disorderliness was over. Nope. Second from the bottom Norwich beat second from the top Man City. If you bet 1 unit on each of the 10 underdogs, you would have more than doubled your money; because, Norwich paid 15.00, Southampton paid 2.87 and Bournemouth paid 3.00.

All the unexpected results, including draws, ought to have adjusted some ratings that were not quite right, if the teams will be consistent from now on.
Here come round 6. Again, let’s be careful until we see some consistency.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

So, did Round 6 show finally lack of craziness? Well, Man City got mad after losing to Norwich in round 5, inciting then to score 5 goals in the first 18 minutes against Watford. That had never happened in EPL history. In round 5, if you bet for all the underdog,s you would have made a 100% profit. Now that there is agreement between my rankings, the EPL table and bookie favorites about which teams are best, a bet for all the underdogs in round 6 didn’t make a 100% profit, but there would have been a 58% profit. The craziness persists. I don’t think we can expect other this season, but that does make the EPL interesting. So, here are are my predictions for round 7. Good luck!

Ray Stefani

[Fatcat]

So, did Round 6 show finally lack of craziness? Well, Man City got mad after losing to Norwich in round 5, inciting then to score 5 goals in the first 18 minutes against Watford. That had never happened in EPL history. In round 5, if you bet for all the underdog,s you would have made a 100% profit. Now that there is agreement between my rankings, the EPL table and bookie favorites about which teams are best, a bet for all the underdogs in round 6 didn’t make a 100% profit, but there would have been a 58% profit. The craziness persists. I don’t think we can expect other this season, but that does make the EPL interesting. So, here are are my predictions for round 7. Good luck!

Ray Stefani

The million dollar question. Cash out or hold???

Currently Ray's predictions for round 7 are all spot on, with only Leicester to win against Newcastle and ManU to win against Arsenal games outstanding. I took a multi for all 10 games. Cash out is currently sitting at a quarter of the total if it were to land, and cash out is 100x what I waged

Thoughts on Leicester winning?? Thoughts on ManU winning???

Decisions decisions

[Raystef5845]

No crazies during Round 7. My favourites won all 7 matches that weren’t drawn. I hope Fatcat did well whichever path he chose. The last two matches went his way with a win by Leicester and at least a draw by ManU. It depends on how the Multi handles draws.

Here comes Round 8. Good luck to all!

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

My favourites won all 7 matches that weren’t drawn.
Ray Stefani
Good going Ray

[Fatcat]

I decided after the Leicester game to cash out on the multi as I was not confident in ManU winning. Just as well because they ended with a draw against Arsenal

So a small wager gave me 196% return after I cashed out

Thanks for those predictions Ray. Great result for me

[Raystef5845]

Round 8 set some kind of craziness record. Tottenham, Man U and Man city all lost. All three had played important mid-week cup matches so that is an obvious factor. Still, if you bet one unit on all 10 bookie underdogs, you would have cashed 6 bets worth 44 units. That has to be a record or nearly so.

Actually, my predictions did OK, amongst all the madness. Bookie underdog Burnley was my favorite to beat Everton and that cashed. Newcastle supporters cashed a value bet when Newcastle upset Man U.

There is nothing boring about this season, Good luck with Round 9, after a week off. After Round 9 the top teams will have mid-week cup matches prior to Round 10.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I will be away when Round 9 is played so I won't be able to send you my predictions for Round 10. Round 11 will head your way as usual after the dust settles from Round 10 .

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Mark]

Back Spurs & Leicester to be relegated @ 501, lay @ 190 & 260 right now. Takes funds out of Betfair but you cannot lose.

[Raystef5845]

As promised, the dust has settled on round 10 so here is round 11. Round 10's claim to EPL fame was that Southampton lost at home to Leicester 0-9, an EPL record for a home loss, or away win, depending on how you look at it.

We'll see what oddity lurks in round 11.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

We had a whole Round 11 with nothing crazy happening. I hope I didn’t jinx Round 12 by writing that. My favourites won 7 of the 8 non-drawn matches. Both value best cashed, thanks to Bournemouth and Leicester.

Let’s keep that up in Round 12.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Liverpool and Leicester are at the top of the league table, at the top of the computer ranking table and provided successful value bets last week by winning in Round 12.

Liverpool are certainly asserting themselves.

With Lucky Round 13 upon us, we are approaching a danger zone of sorts. There will be congested fixtures during Rounds 14, 15 and 16. Teams will not have the usual week before and after an EPL round. Multiple EPL games will be played in the same week. Some teams will rest key players. Some will settle for a draw rather than push themselves. In the past, competition has been rather unpredictable during congested fixtures. You should take that into account when you decide whether to bet and how much.

Good luck with Lucky Round 13.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I will be away for about 1 week and will not be able to send you EPL Rounds 14 and 15, which are only a few days apart. The fixtures are congested as they will be in Round 16.

So far so good for (lucky) Round 13. Value bets on Leicester and Burnley have cashed.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

[Mark]

I realise that very few people on here are truly interested in making money, ie gambling is just a pastime but here goes anyway.
Right now, EPL relegation market, back Arsenal 251 & lay 190, back Man Utd 251 & lay 200, back Spurs 1001 & lay 400. Free money.

[Raystef5845]

Hello to all. I am back for Round 16. It seems as though we just had Round 15. Oh, we did just have Round 15, so I better give you Round 16 while the teams catch their breaths for a congested round.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

EPL 2019/20 Winner

Man City $1.53
Liverpool $4
Tottenham $21
Man United $41
Chelsea $41
Arsenal $51

Others $151 & over
EPL Update

Liverpool $1.19
Man City $10.50
Leicester $16.50
Chelsea $290

Others $650 & over

[Sands]

A-League 2019/20 Winner

Perth Glory $5.00
Sydney FC $5.00
Melbourne Victory $6.00
Melbourne City $8.50
Western United $12.00
Western Sydney Wanderers $14.00
Adelaide United $15.00
Newcastle Jets $19.00
Brisbane Roar $21.00
Central Coast Mariners $41.00
Wellington Phoenix $67.00
A-League Update

Sydney FC $2.94
Melbourne City $5.40
Perth Glory $8.20
Adelaide United $9.40
Western Sydney Wanderers $12
Western United $15
Melbourne Victory $34
Newcastle Jets $34
Brisbane Roar $41
Wellington Phoenix $60
Central Coast Mariners $80

[Raystef5845]

You can always tell when we have congested fixtures. In Round 16, a one unit bet o each of the 10 underdogs would have returned nearly 14 thanks to upsets by Everton and ManU.

Here comes Round 17 with normal rest. Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Oops, I wrote that there would be normal rest between Rounds 16 and 17. The EPL games were a week apart but six of the EPL teams had midweek matches in Europa League and Champions League competitions, so actually in 5 of 10 Round 17 matches, one or both teams had 1/2 week's rest. That explains why Chelsea played at mid week and then lost to Bournemouth, whose supporters cashed bets for decimal odds of 12.00.

Week 18 is with normal rest, followed by a flood of holiday fixtures which are congested for Rounds 19, 20, 21, 23 and 24.

Merry almost Christmas to all.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Here come a flurry of matches. In Round 18, the teams seemed to be backing off before the Boxing Day matches, since a bet on the 9 favourites would have almost doubled your money with a return of 17. As I mentioned last week, Rounds 19, 20, 21, 23 and 24 are congested and perhaps Round 22 should be considered with caution as we probably should have for Round 18.

Merry Christmas to all!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I meant to write that if you bet on the 9 underdogs in Round 18, not the 9 favourites, that you would have almost doubled you money!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

It seems as though one round just ended and another starts tomorrow. Actually, that's true and it's true than Man City allowed Wolves to score in the 82nd and 88th minutes to win. Congested fixtures strike again.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Here is your Happy New Year activity: check out the January 1 (England) EPL matches. The players ought to be exhausted and not just from celebrating with a pint or two at midnight.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

To give the teams time to catch their breaths, there is about a 10 day rest before Round 22 and then they will have about a week before Round 23.

To give you an idea of how debilitating these congested fixtures have been on favourites, here is the profit you would have had betting equally on all underdogs: Round 17 (+40%), Round 18 (+89%), Round 19 (+16%), Round 20 (-24%) and Round 21 (+38%).

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Round 24 will follow in mid week after Round 23 so both sets of fixtures are considered to be congested.

I have to admire Liverpool for gaining the most points ever after 21 matches among the top five leagues in Europe. They have had to deal with congested EPL fixtures along with a tough but successful slate of cup matches. Jurgen Klopp is the kind of coach they seem to want to play for.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Here come some mid-week matches. I think cold weather added to upcoming mid-week matches made teams play even more carefully in Round 23 than in recent congested fixtures. We had seen an average of 2 draws per round for the last 12 rounds. There were 5 draws in Round 23. Typical of congested fixtures, bets on all underdogs would have returned a 40% profit.

In spite of cold weather and congested fixtures, Liverpool continues to lead the way.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

By accident, I just re-posted EPL Round 23 instead of Round 24. Here is EPL Round 24.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Because of FA Cup matches, most EPL teams will have two games in less than a week. Liverpool and West Ham will play three because they will make up a postponed match.

In congested Round 24, if someone bet on all underdogs they would have made a 53% profit.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Round 26 has an odd schedule. Games are spread from 8-17 February, apparently to spread out EPL games for teams involved in FA Cup, Champions League and Europa League games. Be sure to check the schedule of any teams you like for Round 26 to be sure they don't have any cup matches within days.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Liverpool finished runners-up with 97 points,,the highest total in English top-flight history for a second-placed team
Maybe next season!
Welcome back Ray
Got $4.35 for the reds early
It's been a long,,long time between drinks,,but The Reds are doing it with style

[Raystef5845]

The Man City-West Ham match from Round 26 was postponed due to weather and then it was rescheduled for Wednesday. I'll wait until it's over to make my Round 27 predictions: that was all teams will have played all 26 rounds.

Cheers,

Ray

[Raystef5845]

Now that the Liverpool-West Ham match has been made up, all teams have played 26 matches. Burnley supporters cashed a nice value bet.

Here is Round 27. Be aware that because of cup matches, six teams will not have the normal rest before Round 27: Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool, Man U and Wolves.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Round 27 went quite well. All nine matches that were not drawn were won by my favourites.

We aware about Round 28. Most EPL team have to play mid-week cup matches before, after or both for the next weekend. The EPL had to postpone Aston Villa-Sheffield and Man City-Arsenal. The only matches not affected by congested fixtures are Brighton-Crystal Place and West Ham-Southampton.

Good luck with the swirl of cup and EPL matches.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

There were only two matches among the eight in Round 28 where neither team had a mid-week cup match. In those two matches, value bets paid off for supporters of Crystal Palace and West Ham. For the six matches with congested fixtures, a bet of one unit on each underdog would have returned 15, the usual case for congested fixtures.

For Round 29, mid-week cup matches will be played just before or after EPL by Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Newcastle, Leicester, Tottenham, Wolves, Man U and Man City. That leaves only the Crystal Palace-Watford and Sheffield-Norwich matches as not being congested fixtures.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

For Round 29, I could only find one match that wasn’t congested: Crystal Place vs Watford. Crystal Palace supporters cashed a value bet, if they didn’t mind just having one bet.

There are 11 matches being played in Round 30. Man City is playing Arsenal to make up a previously-postponed match. There are a lot of cup matches also affecting Round 30. Here are the teams involved in congested fixtures: Man City, Arsenal, West Ham, Tottenham, Liverpool, Chelsea, Man U and Wolves.

Round 31 will probably involve only 6 matches because four have been postponed due to cup matches.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The winner of Round 30 was the Corona-virus. Rounds 30 and 31 are postponed, at the very least. The EPL says Round 32 will start on 4 April. We'll see.

Now be sure to wash your hands after reading this from a meter away.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The EPL is starting up after three months in limbo. Here is Round 30 again but with the second make-up match: Aston Villa vs Sheffield. The 12 games are squeezed into 5 days from 17-22 June to be followed by 10 more games from 23-25 June. Talk about congested fixtures!

With empty stadiums, the home advantage should be less in two ways. The home players won’t have as much psychological boost and referees who usually favour the home team with a loud crowd will have silence. There were studies where refs watched videos in a studio, half with crowd noise and half without. The ones that watched with crowd noise called “virtual” fouls more often on the visitors. The refs without sound called fouls about equally.

I checked the bookie prices from three months ago when we were supposed to have Round 30 the first time. The home team payoffs have been increased and the visitor payoffs are now less, which tells us that the bookies are calling for less home advantage. I could have guessed at a lower home advantage but I’d rather let my system find the home advantage as we play on

We will find out what effect the three months off had on physical conditioning and team cohesiveness.

Bet cautiously as we start up and stay well, my friends!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

If you blink, you will miss an EPL Round. They will play about twice a week for all but the last week of the season. You will have to use your judgement about how you want to bet on such congested fixtures. There were 4 draws in Round 30, which is what we expect when fixtures come fast and furious.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Looks like we just have to get used to the new abnormal. From what we have seen for two weeks, teams cannot hold back during these congested fixtures to be rested when normal pacing returns, which won’t happen, except for the last round. The EPL home teams have done about what we thought, even without fans. My favourite has won 12 of 16 games not drawn. My favourite Burnley won in a bookie upset. So, good luck with the new abnormal.

Liverpool has to thank Chelsea for beating Man City and giving Liverpool the title. Now, Liverpool travels to Man City. Should be spirited to say the least. Too bad a stadium full of Citizens can’t say hello. Somehow, I think City fans will find a way to be heard.

[Raystef5845]

We had some sanity in Round 32 and some congested fixtures insanity. The sanity was that values bets were cashed by Newcastle and by Sheffield supporters. The insanity, as we have seen before with congested fixtures, is that if someone bet equally on all bookie underdogs, they wouldn’t just have had a small profit, they would have had a crazy 80% profit.

Take a quick breath and let’s see what the weekend round has in store for us.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Rounds 30 and 31 were the first of a long set of congested fixtures with two rounds per week. Those two round went mostly as expected. Of course, the teams had been off for weeks and, although a bit rusty, were rested.

However, rounds 32 and 33 showed that some teams were saving energy. If you bet equally on all bookie underdogs, you would have had an 80% profit for round 32 and a 43% profit for round 33. The teams are becoming unreliable as we have seen often when they get fatigued during congested fixtures. Be very skeptical as you look for value bets.

[Raystef5845]

This will be the sixth round since June 17th. It's not a surprise that the two big cashing value bets for Round 34 were both for bookie underdogs: Sheffield and Burnley.

May you and good luck have very little social distancing between you.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Value bets were cashed by supporters of Tottenham and Wolves. Then, in typical congested fixtures fashion, Liverpool and Man U both settled for draws against much weaker opponents. If you bet equally on all underdogs, you only would have only had a 10% profit this time, which is a good sign.

Here comes Round 36.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

There is just one more round after this.

Leicester and West Ham supporters cashed value bets in Round 36. My favourites won 6 of the 7 matches that weren't drawn, so I think the teams are playing at their best with the end in sight.

Good luck and be well!

Ray Stefani