Soccer

[Raystef5845]

Last week's value bet was cashed by Liverpool supporters.

I am out of breath following all the 8 rounds played since June 30 in less than 6 weeks. Imagine how the players feel.

Here is the final round of a certifiably crazy EPL season.

Stay well until we meet again in cyber space.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The crazy 2019-2020 EPL season has mercifully come to an end. We can look back and learn. For the first 29 rounds, we carefully avoided congested fixtures and made a 43% profit on turnover, placing value bets and betting amounts as suggested by my round-by-round posts.

Had anyone bet on the 9 rounds of congested fixtures, there would have been a 35% loss. If anyone bet equally on all underdogs for those 9 congested rounds, they would have had a 43% profit, which tells you how unpredictable the top teams were. Unexpectedly, they would rest top players or just go through the motions to preserve their players for cup matches. A number of hopeless underdogs won.

When play resumed with round 30, all rounds had congested fixtures through round 38, the last round. After rounds 30 and 31, I wrote that the games seemed to be reasonably played without the major surprises we usually have with congested fixtures. For rounds 32-38, using value bets with the usually amounts bet, there was a 7.7% profit on turnover. Betting on all underdogs would only have paid a 3.5% profit. The congested fixtures for round 32-38 were much more predicable than earlier congested fixtures, but still less than half as profitable as the average for all past seasons.

That’s like saying someone had COVID but the case wasn’t as bad as it could have been. I think it’s better not to have COVID at all and next season, I think we should resume not betting when fixtures are congested. The teams should have about a week before and after each match or fixtures are congested. I understand that there will be an effort to schedule to avoid congested fixtures due to cup matches.

Meanwhile, stay well!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I thought it was about time to restart my English Premier League predictions. If it wasn’t crazy 2020, I would have thought the scores for Round 4 had to be wrong. Tottenham beat Man U 6-1 and Aston Villa beat defending champion Liverpool 7-2. Can you imagine 13 goals being let in by Man U and Liverpool in the same day, let alone the same century? One of those goals was priceless. AV kicked a hard cross in front of the Liverpool goal, which hit a Liverpool defender on the side of his face and banked 90 degrees, like a billiard ball off the rail, into the Liverpool goal. Even Liverpool coach Juergen Klopp had to laugh about that one.

Before Round 4, all but 2 EPL teams played mid-week cup matches so Round 4 had congested fixtures. Consistent with my earlier posts about congested rounds, if you bet equally on all underdogs for Round 4, you would have had a 72% profit.

After 38 games, the home teams have three more losses than wins. After all, it is 2020.

Here are Round 5 predictions. Bear in mind that between Rounds 5 and 6, 8 teams play cup matches, so their EPL matches are congested fixtures for Rounds 5 and 6. Those are: Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Leicester, Arsenal, Man City, Man U and Tottenham.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Every week, something happens to remind us that this is crazy 2020. I warned about congested fixtures for Round 5. There had been only three draws in the first four rounds, but then up popped six draws in Round 5. The home teams had a losing record through Round 4 and then had another losing week in Round 5.

We have major issues with the ratings at this point. There were incredibly big upsets among usually top teams as I mentioned in earlier sends. That dropped their ratings and raised the unexpected winners’ ratings by an unusual large amount. Usually it takes a couple of weeks for either the ratings of top teams to move back up or show us they aren’t that good this year. Continued congested fixtures and training interruptions have made meaningful adjustments difficult for top teams. For example, due to Champion’s League and Europa League fixtures, for Rounds 6 and 7, there will be congested fixtures for Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Man U, Leicester, Arsenal, and Tottenham.

It’s pretty hard to believe that in the EPL table, Liverpool is third, Tottenham is seventh, Man City is eleventh and Man U is twenty third.

My advice is to be very cautious for at least two or three more weeks.

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I can't say that ratings got adjusted closer to where they ought to be. There were still four draws and home teams only won 2 and lost 4 matches, while drawing 4 to have an even worse losing record for the season.

Remember that seven teams have congested fixtures for Round 7: Chelsea, Leicester, Liverpool, Man U, Arsenal, Man City, and Tottenham.

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

These do not get uploaded somehow

[Raystef5845]

The teams seem to have found a way to accommodate congested fixtures. I mentioned that Leicester, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manu U, Man City, Arsenal and Tottenham all played mid-week European Champions League or Europa League matches. All but Tottenham won. On the weekend, two played versus each other and the other five won.

I mentioned some outrageously one-sided upsets of top teams that played havoc with the ratings of any teams involved that week and teams that played involved teams later. I found a way to adjust for those massively unusual results. I think this week’s ratings are accurate.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The adjustments I made because of some outrageous upsets in the first few weeks seem to have worked. My favourites won 6 of the 8 games not drawn. Value bets cashed by Leicester and West Ham supporters.

Round 9 will be played 21-22 November. Good luck!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

It was great to have a round without congested fixtures. My favourites won 6 of the 8 non-drawn matches. Value bets cashed for West Ham and Tottenham supporters.

Seven teams play mid-week cup matches in Round 10 so beware for Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Leicester, Man City and West Ham.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The lessons we’ve learned really paid off in Round 10. Seven teams had congested fixtures in Round 10 and will also have congested fixtures in Round 11: Arsenal, Chelsea, Leicester, Liverpool, Man City, Man U, and Tottenham. Arsenal, Leicester, Liverpool and Chelsea were strong favourites in Round 10, but their congested fixtures suggested not betting on them in Round 10. The first two lost and the second two drew in Round 10.

There were four matches without congested fixtures. Bookmaker odds suggested value bets supporting favourite West Ham and underdogs Newcastle and Leeds. All three won, cashing value bets resulting in a 200% profit.

Good luck with Round 11, being careful of teams with congested fixtures..

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

In spite of this being the outrageous 2020, my favourites won all 8 matches in Round 11 that were not drawn. Excluding congested fixtures, value bets were cashed by supporters of Southampton and Crystal Palace. A value bet on Everton was lost on a draw. So, we had a 93% profit on turnover.

For Round 12. The same seven teams as in Round 11 have congested fixtures.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I mentioned that 7 EPL teams have had congested fixtures due to cup competitions. Only Man U was eliminated. The other 6 not only advanced to the knock-out phase; but all of the 6 finished at the top of their groups. Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City advanced in the Champions League while Arsenal, Leicester and Tottenham advanced in the Europa League. Of course, all 7 very tired teams ran into weekend fixture issues. Man U and Man City went through the motions for a 0-0 draw. The other five, all favourites, lost 2, drew 2 and only won once. That’s typical for congested fixtures.

Predictions for the first weeks of this season were dismal as teams struggled to get back into playing shape and learned to play without fans. I mentioned that I then compensated for some hugely unexplainable match upsets by top teams. Predictions improved. Beginning with Round 10, the system started using numbers from this season, such as the fact that there is no home advantage. There was an immediate improvement. By not considering congested fixtures, in Round 10, all three value bets cashed for a 195% profit. In Round 11, 2 of 3 value bets cashed for a 93% profit. In Round 12, all 3 value bets (for West Ham, Newcastle and Aston Villa) cashed for a 192% profit.

Be aware that all fixtures will be congested for Rounds 13-17.

Happy Holidays and let’s red card COVID,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Typical for a congested round, there were five draws in Round 13. For Rounds 10, 11 and 12, 8 of 9 value best cashed by staying away from congested fixtures. Had anyone taken the 5 value bets for congested Round 13, all 5 would have been lost.

Remember that Rounds 15-17 are congested for all matches.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Here is congested Round 15. When we have one that isn't congested, it will seem odd.

Much more important is for me to wish all of you the best of health and a wonderful and Merry Christmas. Also Joyeaux Noel, Feliz Navidad, God Jul, Mele Kalikmaka, Happy Holidays and whatever other version you prefer.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Don't blink: Round 16 starts one day after Round 15. If you didn't already know we had congested fixtures during Round 15, the 5 draws were a big hint. Also, had you booked value bets for the congested matches, you would have lost all 5, 4 dues to draws.

Enjoy watching. There will be another round right after this one, from 1-4 January.

Happy Almost new Year,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

We are watching really tired teams trying to cope with congested fixtures week after week. Half the matches have been drawn for each of the last three rounds. As was true of Round 15, had anyone taken the three value bets in Round 16, you would have lost two of them due to draws. The good news was that my favourites won all four matches that were not drawn.

The EPL has split Round 18 in half. One half will follow Round 17. Then we will have Round 19, followed by the second half of Round 18. All fixtures will be congested.

More importantly, have a great Happy New Years as we bid good riddance to 2020.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

In order to start making up postponed matches, we will next have half of Round 18 plus the first postponed match, then Round 19, followed by the other half of Round 18 plus the second postponed match.

There are four other postponed matches (so far) that will eventually need to be made up.

The teams in the six matches I am sending will all have congested fixtures.

Happy not 2020,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

One Round 19 match has been postponed, leaving 9 matches. After Round 19, we will have the second half of Round 18 plus one postponed match for a total of six. Each round will be congested due to EPL scheduling through Round 23. Although current EPL scheduling by itself will not create congested fixtures for Rounds 24 and 25, cup matches will be back in full swing involving many EPL teams. I will let you know which matches of Rounds 24 and 25 are congested.

So far, 5 postponed matches are to be made up and there will probably be more postponements as we move along.

As a "word to the wise", value bets on non-congested matches have returned 92% profit on turnover, while value bets on the congested matches would have resulted in a loss of 28%.

Good luck and good health to all.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Now that we finished Round 19, the EPL is scheduling the second half of what was originally going to be Round 18 plus a makeup match. After this comes what was originally going to be Round 20, which will probably have some changes due to makeup games and any COVID problems. Feel confused? That’s because it’s 2021. If something looks normal, you should be suspicious.

[Raystef5845]

On one hand, five of my six favourites won. On the other hand, the one that lost was the most unlikely in a long time: Liverpool lost at home to Burnley, whose supporters (if any) cashed 16.00 decimal odds. That loss is understandable actually: Liverpool has to play at Man U in the FA Cup before the midweek EPL Round 20 matches. Gotta prioritize.

Seven teams have cup matches before the next mid-week EPL matches. I am tired just thinking about it.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

For the second week in a row, there was a major upset. Man U lost at home to bottom-table Sheffield which would have paid any brave Sheffield followers 16 via decimal odds. If you had placed value bets in spite of congested fixtures, you would have lost 32%. Had you booked all underdogs equally, you would have gained 94%, the typical flag telling you there were congested fixtures. Round 21 also has congested fixtures as will the next few rounds.

Stay well!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

There are tests to decide if you are positive for COVID. We also have a test to see if fixtures are positive for congestion (besides being close together): what happened if you bet equally on all underdogs? Round 21 tested positive because an equal bet on all underdogs would have returned a 97% profit (the week before, the profit would have been 94%). The cure is a week between fixtures.

It is a good idea to set those congested fixtures aside. Had you placed the five value bets last week, you would have lost 36%, compared to our record of a 92% profit for values bets placed when fixtures were not congested.

Good health!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I have to hurry up and get you Round 23 before it's over.

Round 22 "tested positive" for congestion in that betting on all the underdogs would have earned you an 86% profit, since Wolves, Brighton, Everton and West Ham all pulled off upsets.

Although Rounds 24 and 25 have a week before and after, most the of EPL teams play in Europa League, Champions League and FA Cup matches in between.

Enjoy,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The next rounds are pretty complicated. The EPL fixtures for Rounds 23, 24 and 25 are each a week apart: no congestion there. However, in between Rounds 23 and 24 and in between Rounds 24 and 25 are FA Cup, European Champions League, Europa League and some EPL makeup matches. I determined that all matches for Round 24 are congested. When we get to Round 25, I'll let you know if any one those are not congested.

Good luck and good health,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The scheduling has been so unfair to players, coaches and fans but there has been no alternative. Juergen Klopp tearfully said he didn’t think Liverpool could repeat. Training and preparing for upcoming matches have become haphazard due to testing and quarantining. Congested fixtures have made EPL matches, FA Cup matches, Champions League matches and UEFA Cup matches become a blur of action. It’s been so destructive to the top teams’ cohesiveness that if you bet equally on the underdog in all 160 congested fixtures, you would have made an 18% profit.

But, to cut COVID deaths, they are all doing the best they can. Godspeed to them.

I am sending you predictions for 13 matches. The first three listed matches, two before and one after the weekend, are make-up matches. Two other postponed matches need to be made up. The bottom 10 listed matches are the normal Round 25 weekend EPL matches.

The only match not involving congested fixtures is Brighton vs. Crystal Palace.

All the best,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

For Round 26, there are congested fixtures for Chelsea, Man U, Southampton, Leeds, Leicester, Arsenal, Man City and Tottenham. That leaves four matches with normal rest.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The EPL has changed the schedule, inserting seven fixtures from Rounds 29 and 33 between Rounds 26 and 27. All matches for upcoming Round 26 are now congested.

[Raystef5845]

The EPL is trying to shorten the season by moving later round matches between the already scheduled rounds. Matches from Rounds 29 and 33 will be played starting tomorrow, one day after the weekend round was over. Obviously, all of these fixtures are congested.

I went back over the 182 congested fixtures that I evaluated. Had you placed what normally would have been 66 value bets, you would have lost 21% on turnover. Had you bet equally on all 182 congested fixtures, you would have won 15% on turnover. Of course, bookmakers reduce offerings so they usually make about a 10% profit. That shows how much congested fixtures hurt the better teams. For the 50 matches that were not congested, 16 value bets returned a 93% profit on turnover.

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The EPL added one match from Round 33 to the Round 27 matches. When I give you a round number, that is from the original EPL schedule. Matches will continue to be moved from the original schedule.

All matches except West Ham-Leeds are congested fixtures.

Best wishes to all,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

This weekend we will see what was originally scheduled as Round 28. The fixtures are congested for Arsenal, Tottenham, Man City, Chelsea, Man U and Liverpool due to midweek cup matches. That leaves five fixtures that are not congested.

Good luck.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The EPL only scheduled four matches this weekend, three from what was originally to be round 29 and one from what was originally to be round 18.
Most of the EPL is playing FA Cup matches this weekend and are not available for scheduling. Arsenal also has a cup match so their EPL fixture is congested.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

For Round 30, there are congested fixtures for Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Man City and Man U due to cup matches.

The EPL teams have done remarkable well in their cup matches this season. Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea have reached the quarterfinals of the Champions League. Arsenal and Man U are in the quarterfinals of the Europa League. Man City, Chelsea, Southampton and Leicester are in the semifinals of the FA Cup. Man City will play Tottenham in the League Cup Final.

Good luck.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Round 30 was a very successful week. My favourites won 7 of the 8 matches that weren’t drawn. Value bets were cashed by those that bet on Aston Villa and West Ham.

My one loss by a favourite was in a congested fixture when Chelsea lost 2-5 to West Brom that had decimal odds of 15.

I am posting my predictions for what was originally to be Round 31. Be aware that there are congested fixtures for Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Arsenal and Man U.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Round 31 went well. Those that placed value bets on Newcastle and Wolves cashed. There was a 38% profit on turnover for Round 31, bringing the season’s profit on turnover (while avoiding congested fixtures) to 73%.
The reason there are 7 matches shown for Round 32 is that the other three matches would conflict with FA Cup weekend semifinal matches for four EPL teams.

The Round 32 matches go through Tuesday. There are congested fixtures for Arsenal, Liverpool, Man U and Chelsea. That leaves un-congested fixtures for Everton-Tottenham, Newcastle- West Ham and Wolves-Sheffield.

Good luck and good health,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

After these eight games from what originally was to be Round 33, the EPL will be caught up to the original schedule except for two postponed matches that have to be made up.

Of these eight matches, the only un-congested fixtures are for Liverpool-Newastle, Sheffield-Brighton and Wolves-Burnley.

Good luck and good health,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The EPL schedule has now caught up as of what was originally to be Round 34, except for two matches that were postponed from earlier rounds.

For Round 34, there are congested matches for Chelsea, Man City, Man U, Arsenal and Tottenham.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

There will be Champions and Europa League matches at midweek before Round 35 and several midweek matches after the round. The only matches without congested fixtures are Fulham-Burnley, Leeds-Tottenham and Wolves-Brighton.

Be well,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The 5 congested fixtures at midweek will be followed by 8 weekend matches. If the games are actually played, then all teams will have completed was was originally to be the first 36 rounds. There will then be two rounds left (maybe).

The round just ended was typical when there are 7 congested fixtures. If you bet equally on all congested fixture underdogs, you would have made a 110% profit on turnover.

Be well,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Here are my predictions for the remaining matches of what originally was to be round 36. This is actually the 40th round played. All the remaining 28 matches have congested fixtures.

Man U was victimized by having to play 2 matches in 3 days, losing both. As per usual, an equal bet on all 5 underdogs in the congested fixtures would have earned a 58% profit, bringing the season profit to 21%, betting on all 241 underdogs in congested fixtures.

Home advantage? In 352 matches, the home teams have won 130, drawn 81 and lost 141, the legacy of lacking home fans.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I should have brought you up to date on value bets. There have been 352 matches so far. After the first 28 matches where we were waiting to see if ratings settled out, there have been 83 matches without congested fixtures. If you followed my betting rules, you would have made 33 value bets, of which 18 would have cashed for a profit on turnover of 61%.

Among the 241 congested fixtures were what would have seemed to be 78 value bets. Of those, only 21 would have cashed for a loss on turnover of 23%.

The team managers have to be careful not to exhaust players during congested fixtures so the teams are not necessarily at the same strength as when the ratings were calculated.

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

All teams have now played 36 matches, leaving what was originally to be rounds 37 and 38 which will be played at midweek and next weekend to end the season with congested fixtures.

Stay well everyone,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Here is the last round for the season. All fixtures are congested.

Good luck and good health to all of you,

Ray Stefani

[Fatcat]

Hi Ray. Hoping your great models are well rested and ready for a new season 👍 Looking forward to your weekly predictions

[Raystef5845]

Hi Ray. Hoping your great models are well rested and ready for a new season 👍 Looking forward to your weekly predictions

Hi Fatcat. Good to hear from you again.

I have deadlines to meet for some sports research. It will take a few weeks to catch up and get my predictions started. Usually, the first few weeks are pretty iffy anyway, as new teams get started and rating settle a bit from where we left off last year.

All the best to everyone!

.

[Raystef5845]

Hi soccer friends.

I had some sports research deadlines that made me late getting started. I was really happy about my Tokyo Olympics analysis. Not only did the swimming and athletics gold medal winners do better than the Rio winners, they improved more than the Rio and London winners, in spite of COVID. They did their best and they succeeded. There is a lesson about not letting the difficult beat you.

The EPL is doing its best too. There is normal scheduling. There won't be any congested fixtures until late November through the New Year, but that is always the case.

Newly promoted Brandtford and Watford are mid-table, talk about perseverance!

I ran the first three rounds and my higher rated teams won 77% of the games not drawn. We are off to a good start.

There is a week off before Round 4.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

At the start of each season, I advise being cautious with betting and watch ratings adjust for the first four rounds. On one hand, after four rounds, my favourites have won 74% of the matches not drawn. That quite high for this early. On the other hand, I am concerned that newly-promoted Brentford and Watford may be overrated after early upset wins. They both lost during round 4. We should wait a few more rounds before thinking about betting on them to see how they do. Arsenal has done very poorly and is close to relegation, so their rating dropped a lot. We better wait a few rounds to see if they are going to rebound.

As for round 5: Chelsea, Man U, Man City, Liverpool and Leicester all play Champions League or Europa League matches this midweek. That means they have congested fixtures for upcoming round 5. Worse than that, the entire EPL plays mid-week League Cup matches between round 5 and round 6 so rounds 5 and 6 have congested fixtures for all teams.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Do you feel really busy right now? Think about Man City, Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea, Leicester and West Ham. At the end of Round 7, they will have played 7 matches in 21 days for Champions League, Europa League, League Cup and EPL competitions.

In mid week before Round 6, all the EPL teams will play League Cup matches so Round 6 has congested fixtures for all teams.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Paddy]

Hi Ray,
10/1 Man Utd to win the League, worth a punt now that they've recruited Ronaldo ?

[Raystef5845]

Hi Ray,
10/1 Man Utd to win the League, worth a punt now that they've recruited Ronaldo ?
Hi Paddy,

On one hand. Man U lost their last EPL match, last Champions League match and last League Cup match. On the other hand, Ronaldo has been scoring and he might light a fire under them for losing to Aston Villa. If you have that feeling, what he heck, take a flyer and enjoy the challenge.

Good luck,

Ray

[Raystef5845]

If you didn’t already know that all the fixtures were congested for Round 6, the four draws and the fact that betting on all the underdogs would have created a profit certainly tells you that the fixtures were congested.

For Round 7, fixtures are congested for Man U, Chelsea, Leicester, West Ham, Liverpool and Man City due to mid-week Champions League and Europa League matches.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The New Arsenal is at or below mid table for the EPL and for my rating system. This week’s EPL opponent, Brighton, is above them in both tables and playing at home. Of course, my system has Brighton as favourite. The bookmakers have Old Arsenal as favourite, which is understandable as they have had some recent success and money will follow them. Which Arsenal will take to the pitch for the match? I think we need to watch Arsenal for a few more weeks to see which Arsenal is playing this season.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Round 8 will be played 16-18 October. In mid-week after Round 8, Chelsea, Man U, Man City, Liverpool, Leicester and West Ham will play cup matches. Their Round 8 matches are congested fixtures.

Good Luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Because there are Champions League and Europa League matches in mid-week just before Round 9 and then there are English League Cup matches in mid-week just after Round 9, there are only two matches in Round 9 without a congested fixture: Crystal Place vs Newcastle and Everton vs Watford.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Similar to last round, becasue of Champions League, Europa League and League Cup matches, only one match (Wolves vs Everton) is not congested. The many congested fixtures, huge upsets and upcoming holiday congested fixtures make for inarticulate ratings. I will post again after the holidays when I feel we are seeing some consistency.

All the best,

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

Thanks Ray. Any comments, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer situation.

[Raystef5845]

Thanks Ray. Any comments, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer situation.

Over the years, I have spent a lot of time in Norway. It’s a country where they show immense respect for each other and work together in mutual cooperation. It is not a country where, when something goes wrong, someone is likely to take over and be critical of the source of the problem and fix it now. Instead, the problem would be cured over time, showing respect to all involved. They work as equals. Olle Gunnar Solskjær had his greatest success coaching in beautiful Molde where the players and he found solidarity.

He ought to sit down with Ronaldo and the two of them jump in there, tell everyone where the problems are and crack the whip until defence and everything else has improved. That is just not in his character as a Norwegian. He delegates. Man U probably needs a new leader who uses Ronaldo as an ally to light a fire under the team until they play like one.

[Raystef5845]

I decided to post my predictions for Round 11, since only four matches have congested fixtures, speaking of which, if you bet on all underdogs in Round 10 with all but one fixture being congested, you would have had an outrageous profit of 187%.

For Round 11, due to Champions League and Europa League action, Chelsea, Leicester, Man U, Man City, West Ham and Liverpool are involved in congested fixtures.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I thought I’d share one more set of (perilous) predictions, considering how chaotic this season has been. It made sense last season that, without fans, there would be no home advantage. so home and away teams had the same win-loss record. This season it makes no sense that home teams have a record of 40 wins, 40 losses and 30 draws. The early season rising superstar Brentford was mid-table last week with a goal difference of zero. They lost at home to bottom table Norwich, then having a goal difference of -22. That was odd for any rating system.

There will be five congested fixtures in round 12: Leicester-Chelsea, Liverpool-Arsenal, Man City-Everton, Watford-Man U and Wolves-West Ham. Because of the usual holiday EPL schedule, all matches for rounds 13-21 are congested. I will start sending predictions with round 22.

Happy holidays!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Even though all fixtures in round 16 are congested, I thought I'd let you know what the computer has to say.

Home advantage has jumped up since my last post. For rounds 11-15, the home teams have won 74% of the matches not drawn.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I am still trying hard to believe that in round 16 which had all of congested fixtures, my favourites won all 8 of the matches not drawn. The home teams continue to surge with 7 wins in 8 games not drawn.

Round 17 has all congested fixtures with the usual warning. I'd enjoy another surprisingly good set of predictions, but we'll see what actually happens at mid-week. I am not holding my breath.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

There are only five fixtures left this weekend and all are congested. Will all five be played? We'll see. If 5 fixtures had to be postponed due to COVID, is it really safe to play any of the other 5? Good question!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Here are the Boxing Day matches, maybe, if COVID cooperates. These will be followed by more holiday fixtures.

All the best to you and your family. Have a very Merry Christmas!

Ray Stefani

[Fatcat]

Hi Ray

Question. Currently I’m having to click on the attachment link you provide each week/round that then gives your predictions. Is there any other way I can get the same information/predictions without having to manually click on the link, download the word doc, copy paste for me to run an automated script to single out which matches I should place a stake on?

Do you perhaps have a API I could call using Curl/PHP?

[Raystef5845]

Hi Ray

Question. Currently I’m having to click on the attachment link you provide each week/round that then gives your predictions. Is there any other way I can get the same information/predictions without having to manually click on the link, download the word doc, copy paste for me to run an automated script to single out which matches I should place a stake on?

Do you perhaps have a API I could call using Curl/PHP?

Hi Fatcat.

I have been providing my soccer and rugby predictions to Ozmium for several years because a friend established this website. I do not have time to create a master site to include my predictions, to include bookie offerings and to program my suggested betting rules. The info I provide is for all my Ozmium friends to use for fun, as each so desires.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I am surprised that for the last four weeks of congested fixtures, my favourites have won 18 of 21 non-drawn matches. COVID has been so bad so far this season, that 16 matches have been postponed.

You may enjoy some Zoom talks I have recorded, covering my work on the amazing progress of Olympic champions in individual sports. You can go to YouTube and search for Ray Stefani. Click on my photo and you can watch 5 recorded conference Zoom talks.

Meanwhile, I wish everyone a Happy New Year.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Even though we have been inundated with congested fixtures, which in past seasons have resulted in huge upsets; for the last 8 rounds, my favourites have won 80% of the matches that were not drawn. I think the teams cannot manage resources by holding out good players, considering that they are happy to just field a full team, considering COVID issues. They seem to be playing up to their abilities.

Speaking of COVID, the Leicester vs Norwich match has already been postponed.

Have a Happy New Year, football friends.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

In Round 21, had you bet on all underdogs, you would have made a 46% profit, It looks like congested fixtures remain unpredictable in spite of recent weeks.

There will be three make-up matches in midweek before Round 22.

Happy New Year,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Because of makeup matches before and after Round 22 and becasue of a few cup matches, all round 22 fixtures are congested.

As we move forward, the EPL will be inserting midweek makeup matches which will continue to create congested fixtures.

Good luck, everyone,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

It must be tough to be in the EPL these days. When they try to plan ahead, they don't know whom they will play, if they will play and who will be on the field. These four matches will be followed by weekend matches so all four are congested fixtures.

Be well,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

There are four fixtures that are not congested:

Everton vs Aston Villa
Leeds vs Newcastle
Southampton vs Man City
Watford vs Norwich

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

One makeup match from Round 17 was added to the 9 remaining Round 24 matches, since one Round 24 match has already been played. Because of FA Cup matches just before these matches, all matches are congested.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani.

[Raystef5845]

Here are the 9 weekend matches for Round 25 (one match is postponed). All are congested fixtures because of the mid-week matches just played.

Here is an interesting statistic: Australia and New Zealand each have a gold medal in the Beijing Olympics, better than 72 of the 91 nations entered which have no gold medals.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

There is one midweek makeup match from Round 18 and the usual 10 weekend matches, this time from Round 26.

Two matches do not have congested fixtures:Southampton-Everton and West Ham-Newcastle.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Here are the four midweek makeup matches. The four fixtures are congested.

The weekend's congested matches were typical: had you bet on all underdogs, you woudl have had a 100% profit.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

For Round 27, two matches are not congested fixtures: Brentford vs Newcastle and Brighton vs Aston Villa.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The Ozmium sports area used to be a vibrant and active area. I have been providing football and rugby predictions for more than 20 years. As of about 3 years ago, I had as many as 600 people download my predictions each week. Now, I notice that several of the areas in sports have not had a post in 2 years. My downloads dropped to about 100 per week last year. Now, only a handful are downloading my football predictions.

It takes a lot of my time to give you accurate and insightful predictions and commentary. Since viewers have gone elsewhere, it is not worth my time to continue.

All the best for you in the future,

Ray Stefani

[westi]

Big thanks for your years of effort Ray. Did follow your EPL tips years ago, but not done EPL at all for past few years, getting more value other sports.

[arnoldz]

Big thanks for your years of effort Ray.
ditto