Neurals Odds-on

[Try Try Again]

After reading Michaelg's Neuralmania it got me thinking about the rules and with all the investigation I've done on the Neurals I prefer the CF, TIM and $ approach (rather than CP, CF and $ of Michaelg's rules).

The only other change to Michaelg's rules is the qualifier must have run 1st or 2nd last start

Since 6th May there have been 24 selections for 10 winners (S/R 41.7%) and 19 places (S/R 79.2%).

Win Bank $7.90 - 32.9% POT %
Place Bank $6.64 - 27.7% POT %

It will be interesting to see how it goes.

[michaelg]

Try,

since 7 May my method has produced 23 selections for 7 winners for a POT of 7.8%, and 17 placegetters for a POT of 6.5%.

A huge difference with your method coming out way on top.

It looks like under the circumstances that the TIM could be more accurate than CP.

As you say, it will be interesting to see how it goes.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Michaelg,

I can not thank you enough for throwing up these little systems which has got me thinking on how I can improve (hopefully) on them.

You have give me (and everyone else) ideas which we have not even thought of.

If we can all benefit with everyone throwing ideas around then we will all be better off, especially financially!

Well done again (I seem to say that a lot with your ideas)!

[michaelg]

Thanks, Try - its appreciated.

Because each of our current systems have logic - our neural settings give the selections an odds-on chance of winning, and they have good current form - that I suppose we can have some degree of confidence in them. And its good that there are an acceptable number of selections, unlike the Unitab 100 pointers methods.

As you say, it will be interesting (and hopefully profitable/exciting) to see how it goes.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Michaelg,

When you are reporting your successes/failures what TAB dividend are you using? I use Sportsbet's Citybest+ for Metro meetings and Country Best (best of NSW and Vic tote) for non Metro meetings.

When I apply these dividends to your results I get a much higher POT% than the figures you quoted (>20% for the win dividends compared with the 7.8% you quoted).

As we all have said it is very important to get the best odds available and not rely on a single Tote.

[Twodogs]

Totally agree TTA,

This game is hard enough and getting a better price than the tabs is one of the easier things to do. Can make aaaa of difference!!

Cheers
Twodogs

[Try Try Again]

For the Neurals Odds-on there are 2 selections today

Canterbury R2#3 Sixty Four
Mornington R3#4 Norwegian

Good luck to all who follow these selections!

[michaelg]

Hi, Try.

I use NSW TAB.

However, if it continues to perform I will certainly look at Sportsbet. The difference is so much greater especially with Win betting.

[Try Try Again]

One winner ($1.70/$1.20), one unplaced.

Always tomorrow!

[Try Try Again]

Only one selection today

Sunshine Coast R2#3 Carry On Dancer

[Try Try Again]

Yesterday's selection ran unplaced.

Today's selections are :-

Ballarat R2#9 Coco Bel
Ballarat R3#10 Snowflower
Goulburn R4#3 Morning Time
Goulburn R8#1 Mylitta
Townsville R1#4 Taunus
Townsville R8#4 Pure Silence
Northam R6#10 Baymax

Good luck to all following these selections!

[Try Try Again]

Only one winner yesterday (Morning Time $2.10) but Baymax finished 3rd at Northam and paid $7.40 for the place!

Today's selections are :-

Ipswich R1#2 Al Mazaya
Scone R8#8 Miss Henrietta

Good luck to all following these selections!

[Try Try Again]

A good winner with Al Mazaya scoring at $4.70/$1.90, let's see if we can't continue the run tomorrow!

[Try Try Again]

What an absolute disgrace!

While I have been on holidays my system has "turned up its toes" and meekly disgraced itself.

This has given me time to reassess the rules I have in place and fortunately I can see some light at the end of the tunnel (Gee I hope it isn't a train!)

NEW RULES

Set Neurals to 3 for CF, TIM & $, all others set to Zero
After scratchings, selections must be <$2.00 in Neural market
Selections must have Won last start (this will eliminate all Maiden races)
Eliminate all Jumps races
Qualifiers must have had >1 lifetime start
Races must have 8 to 14 starters only
RESULTS

Results from 6th May to 28th May are:-

Bets 19
Wins 9
S/R 47.4%
Places 13
S/R 68.4%
Win Bank $17.90
POT % 94.2%
Place Bank $9.00
POT % 47.4%

Biggest win dividend $8.70
Lowest win dividend $1.60

Longest winning streak 3
Longest losing streak 3

Let's hope we can continue to get enough winners to make all this worthwhile!

[Pauls123]

Hi TTA, a very interesting set of neurals and stats you have produced there. I'm not normally a "neural bloke", but these do look interesting. Can I ask, if these stats are from all races every day.? As that is just 1 bet per day.

I'm interested in the "must have won last start" bit. The only stats I can lay my hands on tell me that winners, who won their last start are 55%. This seems rather high to me, can anyone verify this..?

Regards, Paul

[Try Try Again]

Hi Paul,

Yes these are from all Australian races from 6th May until now.

There was one qualifier today which ran 4th at Canberra (R4#1 Megem's Boy) - can't win them all!

[Try Try Again]

Now that I have had a bit longer time to digest recent results we now have TWO systems depending on the qualifiers being Non Maiden or Maiden. The rules for the Non Maiden have already been listed but I will list them again:-


Set Neurals to 3 for CF, TIM & $, all others set to Zero
After scratchings, selections must be <$2.00 in Neural market
Selections must have Won last start (this will eliminate all Maiden races)
Eliminate all Jumps races
Qualifiers must have had >1 lifetime start
Races must have 8 to 14 starters only
Since listing these rules there has been 5 selections for 2 seconds, 1 third and 2 fourths. There is one selection for today Northam R7#3 Nikadonna

Rules for the Maiden races are:-


Set Neurals to 3 for CF, TIM & $, all others set to Zero
After scratchings, selections must be <$2.00 in Neural market
Selections must have run 2nd last start
Eliminate all Jumps races
Qualifiers must have had >1 lifetime start
Qualifiers must have Unitab rating of 97 to 100
Races must have 8 to 14 starters only
Results from 6th May until 1st June are:-

Bets 34
Wins 16
S/R 47.1%
Places 26
S/R 76.5%
Win Bank $13.88
POT % 40.8%
Place Bank $3.14
POT % 9.2%

Biggest win dividend $5.50
Lowest win dividend $1.28

Longest winning streak 3
Longest losing streak 7

I hope we can continue the positive work the two systems have shown so far.

[Pauls123]

hey there TTA, as a matter of interest, what was the outcome for saturday just gone.?

Paul

[Try Try Again]

Yesterday's selection Nikadonna ran 2nd paying $2.00.

No selections today.

[earlfox]

Try these for today

Goulburn R5 #9
Goulburn R7 #2

These are from my Nuerals

[Try Try Again]

Here is an update on the Neurals Odds-on results (6th May to 14th June):-

NON MAIDEN RACES

Bets 35
Wins 11
S/R 31.4%
Places 22
S/R 62.9%
Win Bank $7.40
POT % 21.1%
Place Bank $9.60
POT % 27.4%

Biggest win dividend $8.70
Lowest win dividend $1.60

Biggest place dividend $7.40
Lowest place dividend $1.10

Longest winning streak 3
Longest losing streak 10

MAIDEN RACES

Bets 47
Wins 21
S/R 44.7%
Places 36
S/R 76.6%
Win Bank $15.68
POT % 33.4%
Place Bank $6.04
POT % 12.9%

Biggest win dividend $5.50
Lowest win dividend $1.28

Biggest place dividend $2.70
Lowest place dividend $1.04

Longest winning streak 3
Longest losing streak 7

So we now have results for 40 racing days and both Non Maiden and Maiden races are still showing a healthy profit for both win and place bets. It will be interesting to see this trend continues over the next 40 race days!