The Punting Ashes Test

[Chrome Prince]

Just thought I'd throw my comparison on here between UK markets and Australian markets.
There is a huge difference in market accuracy between the two.
Whether it's the enormous sums of money, or the reliance on late market information, I'm not sure.

I'm afraid that England wins hands down on this one.
Or does it?
It depends on your point of view I guess.

Taking comparative samples of thousands of races of horses opening under 6/4 or $2.50 and comparing them with the prices available I found.....

Australian markets
My overlays produced a POT of 20% backing
Underlays produced a breakeven or loss after commission.

UK markets
My overlays produced a LOT of 20% backing (so a good profit laying)
Underlays produced a small POT backing.

There is no difference in the way the ratings are derived, they are purely price driven and have nothing to do with form, jockey, trainer, class, time or weight.

So there are two ways of looking at it.

Either Australian markets are more accurate because the overlays translate to profit, or the UK markets are more accurate, because overlays are duds.

I tend to think that the UK markets are more accurate because anything not fancied at short prices loses. (in general).

[partypooper]

Mind boggling Chrome??? can I ask you ; can you see any advantage (and how) by my BACKING of my place only investments using betfair? over my usual best of 3 totes approach?

[lomaca]

nothing to do with form, jockey, trainer, class, time or weight[/b].

Sorry CP,

Of course all those are included by someone who first forms a market, and is then confirmed by many thousands of punters.

The reason may be, that the handicapping in the UK by bookies and betting agencies is better, or the punters are sharper or both.

Bit silly to say it here, but "prices" do not just happen spontaneously.

Good luck

[Chrome Prince]

Agreed, that's the point.

What I was explaining is that there is no difference between the way I assess the two markets, so it isn't any other factor than market price, therefore the difference is in the accuracy of all those criteria.

[michaelg]

I read somewhere that trading on the U.K. market is thought to involve huge sums of money, and that this is done at the short end of the market. The traders have no regard for the price and therefore the prices can be distorted.

I must point out that this is only a theory.