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Old 4th August 2009, 11:56 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,428
Default The Punting Ashes Test

Just thought I'd throw my comparison on here between UK markets and Australian markets.
There is a huge difference in market accuracy between the two.
Whether it's the enormous sums of money, or the reliance on late market information, I'm not sure.

I'm afraid that England wins hands down on this one.
Or does it?
It depends on your point of view I guess.

Taking comparative samples of thousands of races of horses opening under 6/4 or $2.50 and comparing them with the prices available I found.....

Australian markets
My overlays produced a POT of 20% backing
Underlays produced a breakeven or loss after commission.

UK markets
My overlays produced a LOT of 20% backing (so a good profit laying)
Underlays produced a small POT backing.

There is no difference in the way the ratings are derived, they are purely price driven and have nothing to do with form, jockey, trainer, class, time or weight.

So there are two ways of looking at it.

Either Australian markets are more accurate because the overlays translate to profit, or the UK markets are more accurate, because overlays are duds.

I tend to think that the UK markets are more accurate because anything not fancied at short prices loses. (in general).
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Last edited by Chrome Prince : 4th August 2009 at 12:09 PM.
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