pre post fav

[bryz55]

hey guys really love the stuff on this forum very interesting threads. first time user so bear with me... just wondering does anybody have the stats for pre-post favs that actually win? basically looking for a system that can be minimal study on actual form and rely on pre-post fav backing... by either selected race types or staking plans??? all comments welcome

winner winner chicken dinner!

[partypooper]

G'Day BRYZ55, I'm sure someone will have those on a data base, whilst I havent, I have done extensive research "longhand" over quite a few years on PP favs and a couple of things have become obvious.

First if you back em all the loss is about 15% on turnover (a killer)
the overall S/R (and LOT) is about the same as the actual favs, though of course they are not always the same horses but usually are.

There is some figures to show that this lot is decreased if you restrict betting to the first 5 races on the card.

The loss is again reduced if you always bet @ BOB (where available) or Best Tote/SP (where available) or at least best tote.

from there the combinations of filters is enormous; a few that I like are: raced within 21 days (or first up 1200 metres and less)

No 3k claimers

Within 3.5 lenghts of the winner last start

25% S/R with at least 5 career starts.


But the list is endless, all seem to decrease the lot slightly but you end up with 6 bets a year.

Its a case of applying a set of filters that still leaves a reasonable T/O and hopefully a small profit, remember though it WILL be small. good luck!

Just a thought, just by backing the pre-post fav (always use the same sourse) you will hit about 32% without any knowledge of horse racing whatsoever, thats better than most so-called experts!

[bryz55]

thanks pp, so pre- post and start time fave stats are quite similar... i guess from wat u blokes write the problem is the favs are too short thats wat causes the LOT...and yes with filters you only have a few bets.

ok then as an experienced person in this investing i was wondering if you think it possible to follow a system or three, part time (say every other day or week when other time committments allow?) and return any profit??


winner winner chicken dinner!

[partypooper]

BRYZ55, your question is an interesting one as it hits upon something than punters dont realise even after many years of punting, and its this:

say you have a method that produces a S/R of 30% winners overall after filters or b4) it doesn't matter how you bet them say every other day, day to day week to week, odd races even races every 5th horse every 10th horse etc etc in the end you will still have a 30% S/R, the sequences would have changed good and bad but over many many bets your S/R is still 30%,
thats why progressive staking plans cannot possibly turn a loss into a profit in the long term.

Now you could alter your S/R by restricting PP price, eg. only bet $3.50 and less, sure the S/R will increase, but the divvies will be shorter so same thing (well not quite, as its been proven that the shorter the odds the less LOT slightly)

eg. say you only back PP favs that are quoted @ 1/1 or less at tote odds you will lose about 7-8% on T/O, with best tote etc that gets close to break even WITH NO FILTERS.

The only thing I would say try and keep a pattern, eg say you know you can bet Wed, Sat, Sun, well form your plan around that rather than jumping all over the place. Haphazard betting if you are a very lucky man could result in many jagged winners, but also many jagged losers if you see what I mean.

[bryz55]

how bout a staking plan of say 1 2 4 8 16 32 based on minimum price of $2 backing favs in decent races with limited (say less than 15 starters) fields, on average u should get a winner every three where as level bets would return a lot but with the staking at a $2 winner would produce 1 unit profit per winning sequence?

any more than $2 would increasy the return.. and the furthur along the staking plan the higher the profit?

winner winner chicken dinner!

[darkydog2002]

14.3 %

[partypooper]

was that POT or LOT darky?

BRYZ55, I can see that you didn't grasp what I was saying, put it like this:

your staking example, yes in individual examples it might turn a loss into a profit BUT consider this: after many thousands of bets you would have had x thousand bets @ 1 unit, x number of bets @ 2 units, x number of bets @ 4 units, x number of bets @ 8,16 and 32 units.

now to clarify say the x number of bets @1unit had a S/R of whatever it is say 32% , like wise the x number of bets @ 2,4,8,16 and 32 units also had a S/R of 32%. i.e. it doesn't matter how much money you have on them the S/R remains @ 32% overall.

Another way to test if I am right (and I am) is to add up the total amount staked over say 200 sequences, divide this figure by the total no bets, to give you an average bet size.

Now calculate what would have happened if you just put that average bet size on ALL the selections:

PRESTO you will see that the S/R was 32% still and the POT or LOT is exactly the same.

Thats why they call me "Partypooper"

PS. There is one thing though that may have some merit, take the PP fav, (always using the same source, SMH, or whatever) now look at the IAS opening fav, and also the PP Fav Don scots market, first 5 races only bet only if all 3 agree.

[bryz55]

thanks darky so on that plan it could earn a profit? im new to this so just testing the water... thanks for the input. im only paper trialling at the moment but very interested in these ideas... wat sort of return on turnover could one expect with a top system??


winner winner chicken dinner!

[bryz55]

thanks party i see where ur coming from but i have trouble understanding if u counted one winning sequence as one bet, the strike rate would be very high i would imagine? not sure of expected longest run of outs but if u kept doubling the stake to cover longest run of outs say 32 64 128 256 etc etc (i suppose u would have some point where u cut the losses and started the stake again from scratch...) it would have to return a profit??

does that ,make sense?

thanks for the feed back definately make the brain tick...


winner winner chicken dinner!

[TWOBETS]

First I think you've got to get your head around what it is you want from the punt. If you're not looking to get serious with it , then I believe it really truely honestly completely doesn't matter. Have a go with long shots, PPM's, Odds on favs, staking plans,......whatever you want to explore.

BUT

If you're looking to make squillions of profit year in, year out, I believe any staking plan will send you to the wall. Your 1 2 4 8 16 32 plan sounds fine at knee level. However, if you imagine the first bet is say $100 then it's 3.2K for the 32 bet. It all gets a bit out of hand too easily for my liking.

[bryz55]

i appreciate the comment two bets. thank you we are really getting into it haha

i wanna return a profit... otherwise i would be just sitting in a tab picking numbers for no reason haha

im just thinking if i had some quality filters in place my expected S/R could be higher than 32%, so expected number of outs would be lowered.

yes the numbers do get big quick but i also understand that its not going to be a get rich quick scheme... i could start with a smaller bank and let it build up over time and adjust the bets accordingly...

by following this it is possible to achieve the goal??
over a period of time? statistically?

winner winner chicken dinner!

[darkydog2002]

14.3 WIN % Party and Bryzz (taken from 100,s of thousands of races ) by Malcolm Knowles research.
"Form Figure Walkabout" a Inracing publication.

Cheers

[bryz55]

Thanks darky can u please clarify is that all races???

Winner winner chicken dinner!

[darkydog2002]

Bryzz the Complete picture on Pre post Favs can be bought from Inracing.
Highly recommended if your thinking of betting in that area.
"Favs - from false to beaten.A complete review"

Cheers
darky

[partypooper]

darky you have me beat there 14.3 win% ? you'd get better than that with a dart?

BRYZ55, Hey I'm not knocking (really) and yes of course if you get the right set of filters to push your idea into profit ,no matter how small thats the way to go.

But I hope you've got the patience of a saint as the only way is level stakes talking long term there.

The only variation from this is say 1% of the available bank never reducing, so say you have $5000 available (or at least what you are prepared to risk) so your bets are $50, now say you achieve 5% on T/O, after you have turned over the entire bank i.e. 100 bets you have won (hopefully) $250, (not accounting for the slight increase )how does that sound?

Cos, believe me many many professional are working to figures like that and less. eg a roulette wheel works on about 2% so I'm told, never been daft enough to contribute there!

As far as the sequence is concerned, yes of course the S/R (i.e. hitting a winner in 6) is very high, but many times you will win 1 unit or you could even lose if your nag is under 1/1, but just 1 losing sequence of 6 puts you 63 units behind, I wish you well but please digest what I've written b4 you test with real money. maybe someone here can tell you how many times you will hit a losing run of 6 ,I've lost the formula.

[bryz55]

Yes party but with filters and some better priced favs winning sometimes pre post turn out not to be the eventual fav...

And betfair or best tote... Possibly a longer sequence of staking the profit may turn out a bit better.

The Ideal would be to run more than one system to help kill the bordommand excite the punter inside haha...

So statistically it may take a while to see some bigger returns but it is possible.

I think the level stakes would lower the profits in this plan?

Winner winner chicken dinner!

[darkydog2002]

The Win % is the Raw % of LS Winners at their next start without taking into account any other factor.

The Winning % of favs who won their LS is 30.8 % therefore a 70 % chance of losing and usually at a poor price.

If you bet those favs in the 55.0 - 57.5 Kg range then the strike rate is considerably higher.

Without any Form study I,d be inclined to look for Favs in the last 4 races with weight 55.0 - 57.5 KG that are at $4 or better with a senior jockey to 1.5 apptc riding it
I dont have any backup for this though.

The big thing though is to get a better price than the average.

Its almost impossible to win betting 1 horse a race no matter what the BSA tell one.

[partypooper]

Well, I've backed enough "dead" horses but eventually I know that there's no point in "flogging" em'

I'm confident in saying that like Two Bets everyone (oldies) on this forum has made the mistake of progression betting. The end result is always the same if there's a profit @ level stakes the % profit will be the same with progression betting, if there's a level stakes loss, the % LOSS ON TURNOVER will be at least the same if not magnified.

Good luck!

[bryz55]

Thanks for the input everyone not bad for a first post...

It's my first real idea so happy with the discussion...

Obviously I have a lot to learn and I look forward to the challenge.

Any high profit reasonable turnover systems people want to throw at me would be more than welcome to help me develop systems... As I hope I can contribute positive input.

My preferred e-mail is [email] k-davids at live dot com


Winner winner chicken dinner!

[stugots]

The Win % is the Raw % of LS Winners at their next start without taking into account any other factor.

The Winning % of favs who won their LS is 30.8 % therefore a 70 % chance of losing and usually at a poor price.

If you bet those favs in the 55.0 - 57.5 Kg range then the strike rate is considerably higher.

Without any Form study I,d be inclined to look for Favs in the last 4 races with weight 55.0 - 57.5 KG that are at $4 or better with a senior jockey to 1.5 apptc riding it
I dont have any backup for this though.

The big thing though is to get a better price than the average.

Its almost impossible to win betting 1 horse a race no matter what the BSA tell one.


agree with your general thrust there darkyd, for me anyway most of its in the weights, bryz55 suggest you spend a bit of time looking in that direction.

but darkyd, whats this 'BSA'?

[partypooper]

Stugots' BSA= Bool Sheet Artists, and thats my last word in this thread!!

[Bhagwan]

That doubling up staking plan works fine if one does not have any long runs of outs , which eventually happens & thats when the tear drops start, not fair I know, but fair ain't got nothing to do with it.

Try this on Favs
Must be highest in place rankings.
Must be Fav priced $3.30 & less on TAB.

This improves its SR dramatically.
40% SR
Stats show -8% LOT at level stakes using TAB prices.

Make selection using TAB figures but make your actual money bet with either...
Betfair ,for best value.
or
Betezy best of 3 Totes or something similar.
They allow bets as low as .10 if need be.

You may like to try the Retirement staking plan (Google it)
Only with a twist , which is ,reduce its divisor by the rounded up decimal odds price of the winner rather than its fractional odds (e.g. 2/1)
e.g. if its price is say $2.50 , we make it 3/1 , now deduct this of the previous divisor used.

It now crushes this plan into profit where at level stakes it may show a loss.

The idea of the Retirement plan is to start again as soon as any profit is made.

[darkydog2002]

Its a ************ hard game to win at and you need to start with a very large bankroll to make any decent money.
What I found quite good (so far ) is the Free way2bet daily tip .They have their losses but not long sequences.
Here I bet $50 1st bet /If it wins next bet $100 then go back to $50.
Repeat.
If it loses remain on the $50 until you get another winner then next bet $100 then go back to $50.

The starting bank for this was $5000.At bet 80 the bank is $5954

Hope thats of some help.

Cheers
darky

[stugots]

Stugots' BSA= Bool Sheet Artists, and thats my last word in this thread!!


ahh, it all makes sense now:)

[bryz55]

So I'm three weeks into testing my new revised plan and it's showing a profit on level stakes currently 11% for place pot and 17% for win pot only betting friday through sunday... So looking ok but I must admit the percentages have slipped a bit hoping it can stand up...

Anyone who makes some money here care to tell me how many solid systems they would run at once??

Winner winner chicken dinner!

[Bhagwan]

To answer as to how many systems one can run .

Answer is , as many as you can, according to bank roll dedicated to each one.
Also the time one has to allocate for the processing.

I have run up to 115 systems all at once , using a computer program called GTX (Google it for info), that would do all the work for all the different selection processes.
It could make all the selections for the day in about 2 seconds.


I would have one bank & bet to a ratio 200/1 up & down for each day.

If one is going to use one big bank roll for the lot, I would not double up on any selection mentioned twice, due to a different system also selecting the same runner.
I found it was more profitable in keeping to this important rule because a runner does not have twice the chance of winning just because its mentioned twice.

When testing systems , its an idea to break them up into batches of 150 selections, this gives us an idea of how consistent the selection process can be.


Try not to be fooled into anything working long term with figures any less than this.
One would need at least 3 batches of 150 selections to get any strong indicators as to its future potential.

That's the problem with stagnant systems , they may only have a few bets a month so one would need a data base of at least 4 years to do the research.

Do expect runs of 20 outs in a row , they just happen, its part of the punting process & there is very little one can do about it except stop on a certain number of outs , there is probable nothing wrong with your plan , its just the ebb & flow of the punting process to get to our average expected figure at the end of the year.

[bryz55]

I'm averaging 20 bets per week so the trials shouldn't take too long...

I can see this performing through the good track racing season but it will be interesting to see how it goes through the winter months... Track condition are not even considered when making my selections.

The more filters the less turn over.... But possibly higher pot. It seems a fine line...

Winner winner chicken dinner!