hey guys really love the stuff on this forum very interesting threads. first time user so bear with me... just wondering does anybody have the stats for pre-post favs that actually win? basically looking for a system that can be minimal study on actual form and rely on pre-post fav backing... by either selected race types or staking plans??? all comments welcome

winner winner chicken dinner!

G'Day BRYZ55, I'm sure someone will have those on a data base, whilst I havent, I have done extensive research "longhand" over quite a few years on PP favs and a couple of things have become obvious.

First if you back em all the loss is about 15% on turnover (a killer)
the overall S/R (and LOT) is about the same as the actual favs, though of course they are not always the same horses but usually are.

There is some figures to show that this lot is decreased if you restrict betting to the first 5 races on the card.

The loss is again reduced if you always bet @ BOB (where available) or Best Tote/SP (where available) or at least best tote.

from there the combinations of filters is enormous; a few that I like are: raced within 21 days (or first up 1200 metres and less)

No 3k claimers

Within 3.5 lenghts of the winner last start

25% S/R with at least 5 career starts.


But the list is endless, all seem to decrease the lot slightly but you end up with 6 bets a year.

Its a case of applying a set of filters that still leaves a reasonable T/O and hopefully a small profit, remember though it WILL be small. good luck!

Just a thought, just by backing the pre-post fav (always use the same sourse) you will hit about 32% without any knowledge of horse racing whatsoever, thats better than most so-called experts!

thanks pp, so pre- post and start time fave stats are quite similar... i guess from wat u blokes write the problem is the favs are too short thats wat causes the LOT...and yes with filters you only have a few bets.

ok then as an experienced person in this investing i was wondering if you think it possible to follow a system or three, part time (say every other day or week when other time committments allow?) and return any profit??


winner winner chicken dinner!

BRYZ55, your question is an interesting one as it hits upon something than punters dont realise even after many years of punting, and its this:

say you have a method that produces a S/R of 30% winners overall after filters or b4) it doesn't matter how you bet them say every other day, day to day week to week, odd races even races every 5th horse every 10th horse etc etc in the end you will still have a 30% S/R, the sequences would have changed good and bad but over many many bets your S/R is still 30%,
thats why progressive staking plans cannot possibly turn a loss into a profit in the long term.

Now you could alter your S/R by restricting PP price, eg. only bet $3.50 and less, sure the S/R will increase, but the divvies will be shorter so same thing (well not quite, as its been proven that the shorter the odds the less LOT slightly)

eg. say you only back PP favs that are quoted @ 1/1 or less at tote odds you will lose about 7-8% on T/O, with best tote etc that gets close to break even WITH NO FILTERS.

The only thing I would say try and keep a pattern, eg say you know you can bet Wed, Sat, Sun, well form your plan around that rather than jumping all over the place. Haphazard betting if you are a very lucky man could result in many jagged winners, but also many jagged losers if you see what I mean.

how bout a staking plan of say 1 2 4 8 16 32 based on minimum price of $2 backing favs in decent races with limited (say less than 15 starters) fields, on average u should get a winner every three where as level bets would return a lot but with the staking at a $2 winner would produce 1 unit profit per winning sequence?

any more than $2 would increasy the return.. and the furthur along the staking plan the higher the profit?

winner winner chicken dinner!

14.3 %

was that POT or LOT darky?

BRYZ55, I can see that you didn't grasp what I was saying, put it like this:

your staking example, yes in individual examples it might turn a loss into a profit BUT consider this: after many thousands of bets you would have had x thousand bets @ 1 unit, x number of bets @ 2 units, x number of bets @ 4 units, x number of bets @ 8,16 and 32 units.

now to clarify say the x number of bets @1unit had a S/R of whatever it is say 32% , like wise the x number of bets @ 2,4,8,16 and 32 units also had a S/R of 32%. i.e. it doesn't matter how much money you have on them the S/R remains @ 32% overall.

Another way to test if I am right (and I am) is to add up the total amount staked over say 200 sequences, divide this figure by the total no bets, to give you an average bet size.

Now calculate what would have happened if you just put that average bet size on ALL the selections:

PRESTO you will see that the S/R was 32% still and the POT or LOT is exactly the same.

Thats why they call me "Partypooper"

PS. There is one thing though that may have some merit, take the PP fav, (always using the same source, SMH, or whatever) now look at the IAS opening fav, and also the PP Fav Don scots market, first 5 races only bet only if all 3 agree.

thanks darky so on that plan it could earn a profit? im new to this so just testing the water... thanks for the input. im only paper trialling at the moment but very interested in these ideas... wat sort of return on turnover could one expect with a top system??


winner winner chicken dinner!

thanks party i see where ur coming from but i have trouble understanding if u counted one winning sequence as one bet, the strike rate would be very high i would imagine? not sure of expected longest run of outs but if u kept doubling the stake to cover longest run of outs say 32 64 128 256 etc etc (i suppose u would have some point where u cut the losses and started the stake again from scratch...) it would have to return a profit??

does that ,make sense?

thanks for the feed back definately make the brain tick...


winner winner chicken dinner!

First I think you've got to get your head around what it is you want from the punt. If you're not looking to get serious with it , then I believe it really truely honestly completely doesn't matter. Have a go with long shots, PPM's, Odds on favs, staking plans,......whatever you want to explore.

BUT

If you're looking to make squillions of profit year in, year out, I believe any staking plan will send you to the wall. Your 1 2 4 8 16 32 plan sounds fine at knee level. However, if you imagine the first bet is say $100 then it's 3.2K for the 32 bet. It all gets a bit out of hand too easily for my liking.

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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"