What would you rather have?

[The Ocho]

Hey guys (and possibly gals).

This is in regards to my thread about my favourites betting system and I am in a bit of a dilemma and am interested in what you think. So, if you could take this survey I would be very grateful.

In your opinion, what would you rather have;
1, A method that has many selections and a reasonably low POT, or
2, A method that does not have many selections but a reasonably higher POT.

I currently have had 136 selections for a return of $25.20 before commission on Betfair or my method. That is a 45% S/R and a 18.5% POT.

If I tighten up the selections (through one or two undisclosed means) I will have fewer (sometimes a lot fewer) selections but higher S/R & POT

Assuming you voted for number 2 above, what then would you vote for in the following instances (for $1 per bet and 15 days of results);
A, 73 selections, +$30.59 profit, 54% S/R, 41.9% POT
B, 47 selections, +$23.29 profit, 59% S/R, 49.5% POT
C, 21 selections, +$21.88 profit, 80% S/R, 104% POT
or D, Leave as is - 136 selections, +$25.90 profit, 45% S/R, 18.5% POT

Please discuss if you are so inclined, thanks.

[The Ocho]

Just one more bit of info which could change how the final selections would be made.

A, 73 selections, +$30.59 profit, 54% S/R, 41.9% POT (Not controllable when I'm inputting my selections)
B, 47 selections, +$23.29 profit, 59% S/R, 49.5% POT (Fully controllable)
C, 21 selections, +$21.88 profit, 80% S/R, 104% POT (Not controllable when I'm inputting my selections)
or D, Leave as is - 136 selections, +$25.90 profit, 45% S/R, 18.5% POT (Fully controllable)

Does that make a difference?

[oldtimers]

hey ocho,my prefered option would be 2/c as i do like to go all up with place betting to try for 4/5 winners on the trot.. cheers bill

[TheSchmile]

Hi The Ocho,

It depends on what you are in the racing game for; action or profit.

The ultimate aim for most punters (and this is a generalisation) is a combination of both.

On the basis of current results and your dislike of losing runs, such as the one earlier this week, I'd opt for System B.

An exceptional strike rate with a higher probability of limited outs. Times your stake by 3 to make up for less action.

Thanks for the post The Ocho, I'm very much enjoying it!

The Schmile

[garyf]

hi ocho
this may help in your decision based on the strike rate of your current 4 systems i have adjusted the strike rates to the nearest 0 or 5 for dexterity
system (a=54%) adjust to 55%
runs of outs 0-10=(2.5)11-100=(5.3)101-1,000=(8.1)1001-10,000=(11.1)
system(b=59%)adjust to 60%
runs of outs 0-10=(2.2)11-100=(4.6)101-1,000=(7.1)10001-10,000=(9.7)
system(c=80%)leave as is
runs of outs 0-10=(1.2)11-100=(2.6)101-1,000=(4.0)1001-10,000=(5.6)
system(d=18.5%)adjust to 20%
runs of outs 0-10=(5.8)11-100=(15.5)101-1,000=(25.8)1001-10,000=(36.9)
forget pot look at it as (roi) return on investment if you were working on an hourly rate what would you want system (a= 30.59 )system (b=23.29)
system(c=21.88)system(d=25.9) of course (system A) always wins the problems then start psychological make up to handle the run of outs the bank required to handle that run of outs always a catch isn't their the above figures are extremely accurate but obviously will be a few out either side the thing is say with (system A) let's say your'e between100-1,000 bets you can look up the figures and expect a run of outs of say 8 losers then back a winner then another 8 losers then a winner then another 8 losers etc just because youv'e gone through your run of outs with a winner doesn't mean it wont start all over again the vagarities of the punt unfortunately these s/rates aren't my systems s/rates but obtained from a data base have all s/rates from 5%-95% which contains 100s of 1,000s of bets so will be fairly accurate good luck in what you choose
cheers
garyf

[stugots]

you will want to go with the method that contains the fewest filters as tightening up your selection method will almost always end with one missing out on winners.

the exception being if you have a large (in terms of time & numbers) database & have proven the filters you are using.

[Dale]

Ask the question again when you have at least 500 selections,too early for filters imo.

At this stage my money would go on (A)

[foxwood]

Is this a trick question?

As I see it:
A. Invest $73, get back $103.58.
B. Invest $73, get back $109.17.
C. Invest $73, get back $149.06.

Not that difficult really.

Ron

[AngryPixie]

I'd go for the option that gave you the largest edge. Beware the backfitted filter. Stick with what you've got. Too early to muck with it.

[The Ocho]

Thanks for your opinions so far.

foxwood makes it sound very simple however, as I explained, I would not know which selections to make until before the race which is something I can't do as I work for a living :(. Having said that, I was home today and could of used system C, but normally I can't.

I tried system B today with a small loss but not as much of a loss if I would of used my normal system (D below) or with system C.

[wesmip1]

In order to make a decision on which system I would need to know:

1. Actual number of winners
2. Expected winners (1/odds)
3. Number of selections

With those 3 things you can work out how much chance is influencing your results with a simple chi square test. This will tell you which, if any, of th systems are worth following.

Without that info its purely guesswork.