I'm more bored

[moeee]

It's more boring not posting than posting.

I been getting smashed lately, so here's what I learnt.
Bet on what you know rather than on what you think you know.


SALE Race 5

2 INVICTUS PHOENIX $3.6
5 HUN CAN YOU $4.3
7 COCO LIGHTNING $4.8
4 SHE'S BOSSY $14
6 WHY NOT BOB $16
3 DR. ROCHELLE $16
1 DR. EVEREST $16
8 SALEGREYS STUNNA $40

QUINELLAS
Boxed 2,5,7 for $4

These fellas should be up front early and would think maybe they can hang on.

[moeee]

I can't understand why those animals won't run like I expect them to :(

SALE Race 6

If the RED don't win this race by panels , I'll eat his barker eggs, because they'ld be so full of drugs it would be heaven.

FlexiTRIFECTA
1 - 6,7 - 6,7,3,4,2 for $10 worth

[wesmip1]

Well Number 1 won it ... at $1.10. Must be a lot of people checking your tips. :)

Seriously though, moeee do you try to target value or a high strike rate ? If you targetting value what edge are you considering acceptable before betting?

For instance if you target a dog at 33% that works out to $3. If you assume you have a statistical deviation of around 10% then you should assume that it is at value anything over 33% - 10% = 23% = $4.34 Anything less then that and you are kidding yourself as chance will affect your betting.

If you rate a dog at 12% chance then that is $8.33 And you assume you standard deviation is around 10% then your odds are only good on this dog at 12%-10% = 2% = $50.

I am not sure how you are doing your pricing but I would hope you read the above and use it. But first you need to know your statistical deviation for you ratings vs strike rate.

Good luck.

[moeee]

I have Race 8 having 4 animals contesting the lead.

4,5,1,3
A Box Quinella for a Dollar and a FlexiBox Trifecta for $6 worth

I'm figuring the Pink won't get around.
If it does, then I'm done :(

[wesmip1]

Looking at the race you rated:

2 INVICTUS PHOENIX $3.6 = 29%
5 HUN CAN YOU $4.3 = 23%
7 COCO LIGHTNING $4.8 = 21%
4 SHE'S BOSSY $14 = 7%
6 WHY NOT BOB $16 = 6%
3 DR. ROCHELLE $16 = 6%
1 DR. EVEREST $16 = 6%
8 SALEGREYS STUNNA $40 = 2%

I rounded above.

Above is a 100% market. Assuming your ratings are good (and I expect they are) I will assume you have a 10% deviation on strike rate.

So the new prices should be:

2 INVICTUS PHOENIX $5.30 = 19%
5 HUN CAN YOU $7.70 = 13%
7 COCO LIGHTNING $9.10 = 11%
4 SHE'S BOSSY $100 = 1% = NO HOPE
6 WHY NOT BOB $100 = 1% = NO HOPE
3 DR. ROCHELLE $100 = 1% = NO HOPE
1 DR. EVEREST $100 = 1% = NO HOPE
8 SALEGREYS STUNNA $100 = 1% = NO HOPE

Of these anything that is 1% is a no bet.

That leaves 2, 5 and 7 as bets. All of those were under the value odds on unitab so this race would be a no bet race using unitab odds. I checked Betfair advantage tool and found Number 2 was $8.34 and Number 5 was $9.38. So 2 bets at value on this race and a nice profit.

Now turn this on its head for laying.

2 INVICTUS PHOENIX $2.55 = 39%
5 HUN CAN YOU $3.00 = 33%
7 COCO LIGHTNING $3.20 = 31%
4 SHE'S BOSSY $5.88 = 17%
6 WHY NOT BOB $6.25 = 16%
3 DR. ROCHELLE $6.25 = 16%
1 DR. EVEREST $6.25 = 16%
8 SALEGREYS STUNNA $8.33 = 12%

Those are your acceptable laying prices. I don't follow the dogs anymore so I checked betfair advantage tool for the odds. It showed Number 7 was an acceptable lay at $2.88.

Hope this gives you some insight to value betting and how that race was profitable.

[wesmip1]

if you rate every race as good as you did Race 5 and you bet only with value you basically have a license to print money.

[moeee]

I managed to get $1.44 about the Red Runner in Race 6, so that turned out okay.

But I messed up badly in Race 8 by trying to rely on hope, after saying that I learnt not to do that :(

Wesmip.
I let the strike rate look after itself, but I feel most comfortable when I can get a collect every 3 or at most 4 races.
So I guess a strike rate of the usual Favourites average of 30% is fine with me.

But VALUE is where I am aiming at.
No particular Value.

I have no idea of Standard Deviation, and I figure the animals have even less.
Woof43 is a mathematical genius, and he still gets most races totally wrong.

It has been put to me that records need to be kept otherwise you simply have no idea where you are headed.
The trouble with that for me is that gambling then becomes a chore.
And if I wanted a tedious chore, then I wouldn't have given up my day job which was paying $30 an hour, a sum that I will probably never get again.

If you are interested in how I do my Prices, its just a trial and error thing.
I first of all make an effort to get the animals in Market Order, then I assign Margins between each animal, and play with the Margins until the Market looks about right.

I use an Excel Program to calculate the Odds based on the Margins between the animals.
It very simple , and is probaby very similar to how the Don Scott Ratings to Odds Tables works.

[wesmip1]

It has been put to me that records need to be kept otherwise you simply have no idea where you are headed.
The trouble with that for me is that gambling then becomes a chore.
And if I wanted a tedious chore, then I wouldn't have given up my day job which was paying $30 an hour, a sum that I will probably never get again.

This is a well known cure for problem gambling. As soon as poblem gamblers have to keep records they find it tedious, especially when losing and move onto something else that is way more exciting like stamp collecting or collecting rocks. :)

If you treat this as a hobby that is fine. If you treat this as an investment then you need to know your statistics.

Good Luck with it.

[woof43]

I have no idea of Standard Deviation, and I figure the animals have even less.
Woof43 is a mathematical genius, and he still gets most races totally wrong.


Thanks Moeee for that vote of confidence, I'll tell the staff tomorrow morning to start looking for other work, send back the rebate cheques and start looking for a job.

[moeee]

Thanks Moeee for that vote of confidence, I'll tell the staff tomorrow morning to start looking for other work, send back the rebate cheques and start looking for a job.

Everyone is a Winner aren't they?
But when the attempt is made to post something to prove it on a Forum, ain't it funny how we all seem to fall flat on our ********.

I ain't been doing well at all lately, but am doing better than what I have been posting.
But people can only judge on the evidence.

If I had the personality of Wesmip or Woof43, then I'm sure I would be needing to hire staff as well.
But I don't , and that may, or may not be a good thing.

Wesmip, do you treat your gambling as a hobby, as an investment, or as a career?

Perhaps someone can suggest a self improvement type course where a Gambler can improve the persomality traits that are necessary to be successful, rather than handicapping or mathematical skills.

Catch you all tomorrow afternoon.
And thanks very much for the input.

I'm over and out for tonight.

[wesmip1]

Wesmip, do you treat your gambling as a hobby, as an investment, or as a career?


I treat it as an investment. I do well enough to treat it as a career but I know enough to understand that my edge could fall away one day.

[woof43]

Moee,
As posted a long time ago,

Try a Dr. Robert Anthony.

He lived a time in Tasmania, where he travelled between there and Sydney, has helped a number of the best in the world.

[moeee]

Seriously though, moeee do you try to target value or a high strike rate ?

If you rate a dog at 12% chance then that is $8.33 And you assume you standard deviation is around 10% then your odds are only good on this dog at 12%-10% = 2% = $50.

I am not sure how you are doing your pricing but I would hope you read the above and use it.


I tried this for a while, but you know what?
When a rated $8.33 shot wins at $25 , and I'm not on it, you know how miserable I feel?

[moeee]

Moee,
As posted a long time ago,

Try a Dr. Robert Anthony.


Is this the one who teaches how to gamble better, or are you recommending I go see a psychiatrist?

[woof43]

He wrote a book back in 1998 how to beat the odds, then went over to Hong Kong for a time because of his exotic parimutual expertise, to help some team players.

Don't worry about his flagship books, the gold is in some earlier works

[moeee]

I went back and copy and pasted the stuff you posted Woof43.

I'll have a bit of a read and study tomorrow morning. (No Races)

Cheers.

[moeee]

Moee,
As posted a long time ago,

Try a Dr. Robert Anthony.



So what book is that stuff from , that I may get hold of further reading from it?

I have downloaded Betting On Yourself, but am yet to start reading.(Races are about to start****

[woof43]

If you do a google search you'll be hard pressed to find any articles about this genius of a racing man, but he was the Racing Manager at Wimbeldon between 1936 and 1976. He was the finest grader of his time. Sometimes you need to look back and try an understand the history of a sport and some of the notables who were by far ahead of their time. ****** was one of these.
A friend of mine was lucky to be able to gather some of his manuscripts and together we develop algorithms to make it possible to compute races in a matter of minutes.

A notable Robert V Rowe (USA) wrote the following from half way around the world about ******.
"For instance, ****** Stevens, racing manager at Wimbledon in the 1960s, was the pioneer of sectional timing and grade classifications. ...racing remains at Wimbledon. That's the main thing."

Biggest hero in greyhound racing ****** Stevens, the former Wimbledon racing manager. If his like had been around in the last 20 years the sport might still be thriving. He was strict but fair, gave no favours. He used to walk the track and announce the going before racing. He was the pioneer of racing.

Towards the end of 1943, the then Wimbledon racing manager, ****** Stevens, came up with a special invitation race for puppy champions.

"Perhaps the finest grader in the history of the sport was ****** Stevens, for many years racing manager at Wimbledon Stadium; because he was rarely known to be swayed by his emotions, however exciting the racing, he became known as "TheSphinx". When making up his card he gave each greyhound a class figure, beginning with A1 for the top race; A2 for a slightly lower grade and so on all the way down to A8 which was allotted to the lowest-class dogs. After every race he awarded points to each of the six dogs taking part in relation to the position in which they finished. A league points table for each dog enabled him to see at a glance how the dogs moved up or down the table each week and he could grade them accordingly. So meticulous was ****** Stevens in his efforts to please everyone and to give his patrons the best possible racing that he placed staff around the track at each meeting to note the position and running of each dog every few yards. This information was taken into consideration when making up his card for future meetings. Indeed, nothing at all was left to chance"

****** Stevens was Racing Manager at Wimbledon from 1936 until 1976. In addition to the techniques listed above he also incorporated into his grading system the criteria by which winning runners were automatically up-graded.

Similarly, runners without a second or third placing in three runs were automatically downgraded ... And all long before the day-to-day use of computers.

Leafing through the archives from 1951 I discover that this was the year when Wimbledon's ****** Stevens determined that a length should be calculated to .08 of a second, whereas everyone else was working to .06.

[moeee]

The automatic censor messed up your post Woof43

That Stevens bloke, it wasn't "CAT" was it?

EDIT: - By the way Woof, since what year were you doing horse racing?
I've rarely read any of your stuff suggesting you were involved in anything other than greyhound racing over the past 10 years or so since I was aware of you.